# Double Bayesian Predictive Stacking for Spatial Analysis - Tutotial

We provide a brief tutorial of the `spBPS` package. Here we shows the implementation of the Double Bayesian Predictive Stacking on synthetically univariate generated data. In particular, we focus on parallel computing using the packages `parallel`, `doParallel`; but it is not mandatory: it suffices to make it sequential. For any further details please refer to (Presicce and Banerjee 2024). More examples, for multivariate data, are available in documentation, and functions help.

    library(spBPS)

### Working packages

    library(foreach)
    library(parallel)
    library(doParallel)
    library(tictoc)
    library(MBA)
    library(classInt)
    library(RColorBrewer)
    library(sp)
    library(fields)
    library(mvnfast)
    library(abind)

### Data generation

We generate data from the model detailed in Equation (2.4) (Presicce and Banerjee 2024), over a unit square.

    # dimensions
    n <- 1000
    u <- 250
    p <- 2
    q <- 1

    # parameters
    B <- c(-0.75, 1.85)
    tau2 <- 0.25
    sigma2 <- 1
    delta <- tau2/sigma2
    phi <- 4

    set.seed(4-8-15-16-23-42)
    # generate sintethic data
    crd <- matrix(runif((n+u) * 2), ncol = 2)
    X_or <- cbind(rep(1, n+u), matrix(runif((p-1)*(n+u)), ncol = (p-1)))
    D <- spBPS:::arma_dist(crd)
    Rphi <- exp(-phi * D)
    W_or <- matrix(0, n+u) + mniw::rmNorm(1, rep(0, n+u), sigma2*Rphi)
    Y_or <- X_or %*% B + W_or + mniw::rmNorm(1, rep(0, n+u), diag(delta*sigma2, n+u))

    # train data
    crd_s <- crd[1:n, ]
    X <- X_or[1:n, ]
    W <- W_or[1:n, ]
    Y <- Y_or[1:n, ]

    # prediction data
    crd_u <- crd[-(1:n), ]
    X_u <- X_or[-(1:n), ]
    W_u <- W_or[-(1:n), ]
    Y_u <- Y_or[-(1:n), ]

### Setting priors and hyperparameters

    # priors
    priors <- list(mu_B = matrix(0, nrow = p, ncol = q),
                   V_r = diag(10, p),
                   Psi = diag(1, q),
                   nu = 3)

    # hyperparameters values
    alfa_seq <- c(0.7, 0.8, 0.9)
    phi_seq <- c(3, 4, 5)
    hyperpar <- list(alpha = alfa_seq, phi = phi_seq)

### Setting dimensions

    # subset dimension
    subset_size <- 500

    # number of posterior draws
    R <- 200

    # number of computational cores
    n_core <- 1

### Double BPS parallel fit

Parallel implementation, exploiting 1 computing core.

    out <- spBPS(data = list(Y = Y, X = X),
          priors = priors,
          coords = crd_s,
          hyperpar = hyperpar,
          subset_size = subset_size,
          combine_method = "bps",
          draws = R,
          newdata = list(X = X_u, coords = crd_u),
          cores = n_core)

### Results collection

    # statistics computations W
    pred_mat_W <- do.call(abind, c(lapply(out$predictive, function(x) x$Wu), along = 3))
    post_mean_W <- apply(pred_mat_W, c(1,2), mean)
    post_qnt_W <- apply(pred_mat_W, c(1,2), quantile, c(0.025, 0.975))

    # Empirical coverage for W
    coverage_W <- mean(W_u >= post_qnt_W[1,,1] & W_u <= post_qnt_W[2,,1])
    cat("Empirical coverage for Spatial process:", round(coverage_W, 3),"\n")
    #> Empirical coverage for Spatial process: 0.996

    # statistics computations Y
    pred_mat_Y <- do.call(abind, c(lapply(out$predictive, function(x) x$Yu), along = 3))
    post_mean_Y <- apply(pred_mat_Y, c(1,2), mean)
    post_qnt_Y <- apply(pred_mat_Y, c(1,2), quantile, c(0.025, 0.975))

    # Empirical coverage for Y
    coverage_Y <- mean(Y_u >= post_qnt_Y[1,,1] & Y_u <= post_qnt_Y[2,,1])
    cat("Empirical coverage for Response:", round(coverage_Y, 3),"\n")
    #> Empirical coverage for Response: 0.976

    # Root Mean Square Prediction Error
    rmspe_W <- sqrt( mean( (W_u - post_mean_W)^2 ) )
    rmspe_Y <- sqrt( mean( (Y_u - post_mean_Y)^2 ) )
    cat("RMSPE for Spatial process:", round(rmspe_W, 3), "\n")
    #> RMSPE for Spatial process: 0.4
    cat("RMSPE for Response:", round(rmspe_Y, 3), "\n")
    #> RMSPE for Response: 0.568

### Plot results

##

Presicce, Luca, and Sudipto Banerjee. 2024. “Bayesian Transfer Learning for Artificially Intelligent Geospatial Systems: A Predictive Stacking Approach.” arXiv Preprint, arXiv:2410.09504. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2410.09504.