FN Thomson Reuters Web of Science™ VR 1.0 PT J AU Kwan, S Eisenbeis, RA AF Kwan, S Eisenbeis, RA TI Bank risk, capitalization, and operating efficiency SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH LA English DT Article ID RATE DEPOSIT INSURANCE; FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS; MODEL; DEREGULATION; POLICY AB A simultaneous equation framework is used to test hypotheses about the interrelationships among bank interest rate and credit risk-taking, capitalization, and operating efficiency. A positive effect of inefficiency on risk-taking was found and supports the moral hazard hypothesis that poor performers are more vulnerable to risk-taking than high performance banking organizations. A positive effect of inefficiency on the level of capital is attributable to regulatory pressure on underperforming institutions. At the same time, firms with more capital are found to operate more efficiently than less well-capitalized banking organizations. A U-shaped relationship is detected between inefficiency and loan growth, indicating that operating efficiency improves at a decreasing rate as loan growth rate increases. This supports the hypothesis that entrenched managers who pursue a growth objective to enhance their own wealth tend to operate inefficiently. C1 Fed Reserve Bank, San Francisco, CA USA. Fed Reserve Bank Atlanta, Atlanta, GA USA. RP Kwan, S (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, San Francisco, CA USA. NR 38 TC 44 Z9 44 U1 2 U2 5 PU SPRINGER PI NEW YORK PA 233 SPRING ST, NEW YORK, NY 10013 USA SN 0920-8550 EI 1573-0735 J9 J FINANC SERV RES JI J. Financ. Serv. Res. PD OCT-DEC PY 1997 VL 12 IS 2-3 BP 117 EP 131 DI 10.1023/A:1007970618648 PG 15 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA YU834 UT WOS:000071760700002 ER PT J AU Allen, L Jagtiani, J AF Allen, L Jagtiani, J TI Risk and market segmentation in financial intermediaries' returns SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH LA English DT Article ID COMMON-STOCK RETURNS; INSTITUTIONS; BANKING AB This study examines both the quantity and price of risk exposure for different segments of financial intermediaries. Overall, we find evidence of market segmentation in the U.S. financial services industry. Specifically, we find that securities firms, consistently over the sampling period 1974-1994, had the most market risk exposure with the lowest market risk premium. Banks' market risk fluctuated over the sampling period. Banks increased their market risk-taking after the shift in monetary target in October 1979 and the announcement of the risk-based capital requirements in July 1988. The banks' market risk became the highest and insignificantly different from securities firms'. The results are consistent with the moral hazard argument; that is, banks took on more risk to take advantage of government guarantees as their charter value declined. Banks were subject to relatively high interest rate risk premium. However, in response to increased interest rate volatility and decreased charter value after October 1979, banks (while they increased their market risk exposure) lowered their interest rate risk exposure to an insignificant level. The result suggest that the federal safety net may have been perceived by the market as covering only market risk but not interest rate risk. Overall, we find little evidence of interest rate risk exposure, suggesting the prevalence of hedging programs using interest rate derivatives. The interest rate risk premiums, unlike the risk exposure, differ across financial intermediaries. C1 CUNY Bernard M Baruch Coll, New York, NY 10010 USA. Fed Reserve Bank, Chicago, IL USA. RP Allen, L (reprint author), CUNY Bernard M Baruch Coll, New York, NY 10010 USA. NR 27 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 0 U2 2 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0920-8550 J9 J FINANC SERV RES JI J. Financ. Serv. Res. PD OCT-DEC PY 1997 VL 12 IS 2-3 BP 159 EP 173 DI 10.1023/A:1007974719557 PG 15 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA YU834 UT WOS:000071760700004 ER PT J AU Hirtle, BJ AF Hirtle, BJ TI Derivatives, portfolio composition, and bank holding company interest rate risk exposure SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH LA English DT Article ID COMMON-STOCK; INSTITUTIONS AB This article examines the role played by derivatives in determining the interest rate sensitivity of bank holding companies' (BHCs) common stock, controlling for the influence of on-balance sheet activities and other bank-specific characteristics. The major result of the analysis suggests that derivatives have played a significant role in shaping banks' interest rate risk exposures in recent years. For the typical bank holding company in the sample, increases in the use of interest rate derivatives corresponded to greater interest rate risk exposure during the 1991-1994 period. This relationship is particularly strong for bank holding companies that serve as derivatives dealers and for smaller, end-user BHCs. During earlier years, however, there is no significant relationship between the extent of derivatives activities and interest rate risk exposure. There are two plausible interpretations of the relationship between interest rate derivative activity and interest rate risk exposure in the latter part of the sample period: one interpretation suggests that derivatives tend to enhance interest rate risk exposure for the typical BHC in the sample, while the other suggests that derivatives may be used to partially offset high interest rate risk exposures arising from other activities. The analysis provides support for the first of these two interpretations. C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, Banking Studies Dept, New York, NY 10045 USA. RP Hirtle, BJ (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank New York, Banking Studies Dept, New York, NY 10045 USA. NR 27 TC 15 Z9 15 U1 0 U2 6 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0920-8550 J9 J FINANC SERV RES JI J. Financ. Serv. Res. PD OCT-DEC PY 1997 VL 12 IS 2-3 BP 243 EP 266 DI 10.1023/A:1007930904536 PG 24 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA YU834 UT WOS:000071760700007 ER PT J AU Peek, J Rosengren, ES AF Peek, J Rosengren, ES TI Derivatives activity at troubled banks SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH LA English DT Article ID CREDIT AB Because of moral hazard associated with deposit insurance, troubled banks that have a relatively thin capital cushion to absorb losses have an incentive to take speculative positions. Thus, the prevalence of problem banks among those actively engaged in derivatives markets should be of concern to bank supervisors. However,we find no evidence that bank supervisors take into account, either favorably or unfavorably, the derivatives activities of troubled banks in their decisions to downgrade bank ratings or impose regulatory actions. The derivatives activity of troubled banks should raise the same concerns expressed about banks' on-balance-sheet positions, namely, that they may not be fully exploiting hedging opportunities or may be placing their remaining capital at risk, intentionally or unintentionally. C1 Boston Coll, Chestnut Hill, MA 02167 USA. Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. RP Peek, J (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. NR 14 TC 8 Z9 8 U1 0 U2 1 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0920-8550 J9 J FINANC SERV RES JI J. Financ. Serv. Res. PD OCT-DEC PY 1997 VL 12 IS 2-3 BP 287 EP 302 DI 10.1023/A:1007935005444 PG 16 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA YU834 UT WOS:000071760700009 ER PT J AU Kasa, K AF Kasa, K TI Consumption-based versus production-based models of international equity markets SO JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL MONEY AND FINANCE LA English DT Article ID ASSET PRICING-MODELS; GENERALIZED-METHOD; MOMENTS ESTIMATORS; SAMPLE PROPERTIES; WORLD PRICE; RISK; RETURNS; INVESTMENT; ARBITRAGE; INFORMATION AB This paper compares the ability of two discount rate models to explain the cross-sectional and time-series variation of stock returns in the US, Japan, the UK, Germany and Canada. The data consist of quarterly returns on Morgan Stanley's Capital International indices for the period from January 1972 to March 1993. The two models considered are a consumption-CAPM, linking the discount rate to the intertemporal marginal rate of substitution in consumption and a production-CAPM, linking the discount rate to the intertemporal marginal rate of transformation in production. The main result is that a production-based CAPM performs better than the consumption-based CWM in explaining national stock market returns. The results also indicate that time variation in risk premia rather than time variation in betas provides most of the explanatory power in both models. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. RP FED RESERVE BANK SAN FRANCISCO, RES DEPT, SAN FRANCISCO, CA 94120 USA. NR 33 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 2 U2 4 PU ELSEVIER SCI LTD PI OXFORD PA THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD OX5 1GB, OXON, ENGLAND SN 0261-5606 EI 1873-0639 J9 J INT MONEY FINANC JI J. Int. Money Finan. PD OCT PY 1997 VL 16 IS 5 BP 653 EP 680 DI 10.1016/S0261-5606(97)00024-7 PG 28 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA XZ427 UT WOS:A1997XZ42700001 ER PT J AU Estrella, A Mishkin, FS AF Estrella, A Mishkin, FS TI Is there a role for monetary aggregates in the conduct of monetary policy? SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Monetary Policy and Financial Markets CY OCT 17-18, 1997 CL GERZENSEE, SWITZERLAND SP Swiss Natl Bank, Univ Rochester, Studienzentrum Gerzensee DE money; monetary aggregates; monetary policy AB We examine the potential policy role of monetary aggregates by attempting to use them as effectively as possible in the analysis of empirical relationships. We focus on their role as information variables, since any more ambitious use, such as in a policy rule, would presuppose some information content in the aggregates. Our results show that in the United States since 1979, the monetary aggregates fall considerably short of those requirements, and results with German M3 are hardly more favorable. We also investigate whether empirical relationships are not reflective of information relationships because of the use of these variables in countercyclical policy. The results are not consistent with that interpretation. C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. Columbia Univ, Grad Sch Business, New York, NY 10027 USA. Natl Bur Econ Res, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. RP Estrella, A (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. EM arturo.estrella@ny.frb.org NR 19 TC 69 Z9 72 U1 0 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD OCT PY 1997 VL 40 IS 2 BP 279 EP 304 DI 10.1016/S0304-3932(97)00044-5 PG 26 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA YM215 UT WOS:000071041300004 ER PT J AU Lacker, JM AF Lacker, JM TI Clearing, settlement and monetary policy SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Monetary Policy and Financial Markets CY OCT 17-18, 1997 CL GERZENSEE, SWITZERLAND SP Swiss Natl Bank, Univ Rochester, Studienzentrum Gerzensee DE monetary policy ID PRIVATE INFORMATION; CREDIT; MONEY; RISK; CURRENCY; PAYMENT; ECONOMY AB This paper develops a general equilibrium model of the clearing and settlement of private payment instruments. Spatial separation, heterogeneous preference shocks and limited communication provide a role for private credit as a means of payment. Although this method could be applied to various settlement arrangements, the use of central bank deposit liabilities in settlement is studied here. Various tools of payment system policy, such as intraday overdraft limits and fees, collateral requirements, reserve requirements, and interest on reserves, are examined. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Richmond, Res Dept, Richmond, VA 23261 USA. RP Lacker, JM (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Richmond, Res Dept, POB 27622, Richmond, VA 23261 USA. NR 58 TC 15 Z9 15 U1 4 U2 9 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD OCT PY 1997 VL 40 IS 2 BP 347 EP 381 DI 10.1016/S0304-3932(97)00046-9 PG 35 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA YM215 UT WOS:000071041300006 ER PT J AU Bowman, D Faust, J AF Bowman, D Faust, J TI Options, sunspots, and the creation of uncertainty SO JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY LA English DT Article ID INCOMPLETE MARKETS; INDETERMINACY; EQUILIBRIUM; EXISTENCE; PLANS AB We present two examples in which the addition of an option market leads to sunspot equilibria despite the fact that no sunspot equilibria exist without the market. These examples highlight Limitations in two prevalent views of option markets. It is often assumed that option markets help complete otherwise incomplete markets. We demonstrate that they can instead increase the number of events agents wish to insure against. As in Black and Scholes, it is often assumed that option markets are redundant. We demonstrate that an option market may not be redundant even when markets were complete before its introduction. RP Bowman, D (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20051, USA. NR 21 TC 10 Z9 10 U1 0 U2 4 PU UNIV CHICAGO PRESS PI CHICAGO PA 5720 S WOODLAWN AVE, CHICAGO, IL 60637 SN 0022-3808 J9 J POLIT ECON JI J. Polit. Econ. PD OCT PY 1997 VL 105 IS 5 BP 957 EP 975 DI 10.1086/262100 PG 19 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA XZ853 UT WOS:A1997XZ85300003 ER PT J AU SchmittGrohe, S Uribe, M AF SchmittGrohe, S Uribe, M TI Balanced-budget rules, distortionary taxes, and aggregate instability SO JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY LA English DT Article ID BUSINESS CYCLES; EQUILIBRIA; MONETARY; DEMAND; TIME AB A traditional argument against a balanced-budget fiscal policy rule is that it amplifies business cycles by stimulating aggregate demand during booms via tax cuts and higher public expenditures and by reducing demand during recessions through a corresponding fiscal contraction. This paper suggests an additional source of instability that may arise from this ripe of fiscal policy rule, It shows that: within the standard neoclassical growth model, a balanced-budget rule can make expectations of higher tax rates self-fulfilling if the fiscal authority relies heavily on changes in labor income taxes to eliminate short-run fiscal imbalances. Calibrated versions of the model show that indeterminacy occurs for income tax rates that are empirically plausible for the U.S. economy and other Group of Seven countries. RP SchmittGrohe, S (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 21 TC 113 Z9 114 U1 0 U2 6 PU UNIV CHICAGO PRESS PI CHICAGO PA 5720 S WOODLAWN AVE, CHICAGO, IL 60637 SN 0022-3808 J9 J POLIT ECON JI J. Polit. Econ. PD OCT PY 1997 VL 105 IS 5 BP 976 EP 1000 DI 10.1086/262101 PG 25 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA XZ853 UT WOS:A1997XZ85300004 ER PT J AU Mendoza, EG MilesiFerretti, G Asea, P AF Mendoza, EG MilesiFerretti, G Asea, P TI On the ineffectiveness of tax policy in altering long-run growth: Harberger's superneutrality conjecture SO JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE endogenous growth; private investment; tax structure; tax rate estimates ID CROSS-COUNTRY EVIDENCE; ECONOMIC-GROWTH; ENDOGENOUS GROWTH; MODEL; TAXATION; RATES AB In 1964 Harberger conjectured that, although theory predicts that changes in tax rates affect investment and growth in the long-run, in practice tax policy is an ineffective instrument to influence growth. This paper provides theoretical and empirical evidence in favor of this view. The growth effects of tax policy in the class of endogenous growth models driven by human capital accumulation are examined, and numerical simulations of these models confirm the results Harberger predicted. Cross-country panel regressions, estimated using a new method for measuring effective tax rates, produce significant investment effects from taxes that are consistent with negligible growth effects. These results are robust to the introduction of other growth determinants, (C) 1997 Elsevier Science S.A. C1 INT MONETARY FUND,WASHINGTON,DC 20431. CEPR,WASHINGTON,DC 20431. UNIV CALIF LOS ANGELES,LOS ANGELES,CA 90024. NBER,LOS ANGELES,CA 90024. RP Mendoza, EG (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 41 TC 128 Z9 130 U1 1 U2 13 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA LAUSANNE PI LAUSANNE PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE, SWITZERLAND SN 0047-2727 J9 J PUBLIC ECON JI J. Public Econ. PD OCT PY 1997 VL 66 IS 1 BP 99 EP 126 DI 10.1016/S0047-2727(97)00011-X PG 28 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA YE489 UT WOS:A1997YE48900005 ER PT J AU Sarte, PDG AF Sarte, PDG TI Progressive taxation and income inequality in dynamic competitive equilibrium SO JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE tax progressivity; agent heterogeneity; inequality; dynamic equilibrium ID EQUAL SACRIFICE; GROWTH AB This paper establishes the existence of a non-degenerate distribution of income in a simple dynamic economy when agents, who are heterogeneous in their rates of impatience, face a progressive tax system. In this dynamic setting, income inequality can vary positively with the degree of tax progressivity. Moreover, the inherent heterogeneity in agents' behavior can explain why measures of inequality, such as the standard deviation of income or Atkinson's Gini, tend to be dynamically much more sluggish than aggregate measures such as total income. Finally, the adjustment in the degree of inequality resulting from an exogenous change in tax policy may take some time before becoming effective. This result also arises from agents' asymmetric responses to policy changes. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science S.A. RP Sarte, PDG (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK RICHMOND,RES DEPT,POB 27622,RICHMOND,VA 23261, USA. NR 23 TC 21 Z9 21 U1 1 U2 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA LAUSANNE PI LAUSANNE PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE, SWITZERLAND SN 0047-2727 J9 J PUBLIC ECON JI J. Public Econ. PD OCT PY 1997 VL 66 IS 1 BP 145 EP 171 DI 10.1016/S0047-2727(97)00026-1 PG 27 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA YE489 UT WOS:A1997YE48900007 ER PT J AU Lindsey, LB AF Lindsey, LB TI That's gratitude for you SO FORBES LA English DT Article C1 FED RESERVE SYST,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 1 PU FORBES INC PI NEW YORK PA 60 FIFTH AVE, NEW YORK, NY 10011 SN 0015-6914 J9 FORBES JI Forbes PD SEP 8 PY 1997 VL 160 IS 5 BP 86 EP 87 PG 2 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA XT793 UT WOS:A1997XT79300029 ER PT J AU Harrigan, J AF Harrigan, J TI Technology, factor supplies, and international specialization: Estimating the neoclassical model SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID LEONTIEF; TRADE AB The neoclassical model of trade predicts that international specialization will be jointly determined by cross-country differences in relative factor endowments and technology levels. This paper specifies an empirical model of specialization consistent with the neoclassical explanation. In the model, a sector's share of GDP depends on relative factor supplies and relative technology differences, and the estimated parameters of the model have a clear connection to theoretical parameters. The model is estimated with panel data on manufacturing sectors in industrialized countries. Relative technology levels and factor supplies are both found to be important determinants of specialization. RP Harrigan, J (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,INT RES DEPT,33 LIBERTY ST,NEW YORK,NY 10045, USA. NR 33 TC 154 Z9 157 U1 0 U2 6 PU AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY, STE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD SEP PY 1997 VL 87 IS 4 BP 475 EP 494 PG 20 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA XX920 UT WOS:A1997XX92000001 ER PT J AU Peek, J Rosengren, ES AF Peek, J Rosengren, ES TI The international transmission of financial shocks: The case of Japan SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID INVESTMENT AB The size of Japanese bank lending operations in the United States enables us to use US. banking data to investigate the extent to which the sharp decline in Japanese stock prices was transmitted to the United States via US. branches of Japanese parent banks, as well as to identify a supply shock to U.S. bank lending that is independent of U.S. loan demand. We find that binding risk-based capital requirements associated with the Japanese stock market decline resulted in a decrease in lending by Japanese banks in the United States that was both economically and statistically significant. C1 FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,RES DEPT,BOSTON,MA 02210. RP Peek, J (reprint author), BOSTON UNIV,DEPT ECON,CHESTNUT HILL,MA 02167, USA. NR 12 TC 184 Z9 184 U1 0 U2 11 PU AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY, STE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD SEP PY 1997 VL 87 IS 4 BP 495 EP 505 PG 11 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA XX920 UT WOS:A1997XX92000002 ER PT J AU Bomfim, AN Diebold, FX AF Bomfim, AN Diebold, FX TI Bounded rationality and strategic complementarity in a macroeconomic model: Policy effects, persistence and multipliers SO ECONOMIC JOURNAL LA English DT Article ID IMPERFECT COMPETITION; BUSINESS-CYCLE; HETEROGENEITY; EXPECTATIONS; EQUILIBRIA; MONEY AB Motivated by recent developments in the bounded rationality and strategic complementarity literatures, we examine an intentionally simple and stylised aggregative economic model, when the assumptions of fully rational expectations and no strategic interactions are relaxed, We show that small deviations from rational expectations. taken alone, lead only to small deviations from classical policy -ineffectiveness, but that the situation can change dramatically when strategic complementarity is introduced. Strategic complementarity magnifies the effects of even small departures from rational expectations, producing equilibria with policy effectiveness, output persistence and multiplier effects. C1 UNIV PENN,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19104. RP Bomfim, AN (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC, USA. NR 27 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 1 U2 4 PU BLACKWELL PUBL LTD PI OXFORD PA 108 COWLEY RD, OXFORD, OXON, ENGLAND OX4 1JF SN 0013-0133 J9 ECON J JI Econ. J. PD SEP PY 1997 VL 107 IS 444 BP 1358 EP 1374 DI 10.1111/1468-0297.00227 PG 17 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA YC932 UT WOS:A1997YC93200003 ER PT J AU Geweke, JF Keane, MP Runkle, DE AF Geweke, JF Keane, MP Runkle, DE TI Statistical inference in the multinomial multiperiod probit model SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMETRICS LA English DT Article DE Bayesian inference; discrete choice; Gibbs sampling; method of simulated moments; simulated maximum likelihood; panel data ID MAXIMUM-LIKELIHOOD-ESTIMATION; DISCRETE RESPONSE MODELS; PANEL-DATA; SIMULATED MOMENTS AB Statistical inference in multinomial multiperiod probit models has been hindered in the past by the high dimensional numerical integrations necessary to form the likelihood functions, posterior distributions, or moment conditions in these models. We describe three alternative estimators, implemented using simulation-based approaches to inference, that circumvent the integration problem: posterior means computed using Gibbs sampling and data augmentation (GIBES), simulated maximum likelihood (SML) estimation using the GHK probability simulator, and method of simulated moment (MSM) estimation using GHK. We perform a set of Monte-Carlo experiments to compare the sampling distributions of these estimators. Although all three estimators perform reasonably well, some important differences emerge. Our most important finding is that, holding simulation size fixed, the relative and absolute performance of the classical methods, especially SML, gets worse when serial correlation in disturbances is strong. In data sets with an AR(1) parameter of 0.50, the RMSEs for SML and MSM based on GHK with 20 draws exceed those of GIBES by 9% and 0%, respectively. But when the AR(1) parameter is 0.80, the RMSEs for SML and MSM based on 20 draws exceed those of GIBES by 79% and 37%, respectively, and the number of draws needed to reduce the RMSEs to within 10% of GIBES are 160 and 80 respectively. Also, the SML estimates of serial correlation parameters exhibit significant downward bias. Thus, while conventional wisdom suggests that 20 draws of GHK is 'enough' to render the bias and noise induced by simulation negligible, our results suggest that much larger simulation sizes are needed when serial correlation in disturbances is strung. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science S.A. C1 FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,RES DEPT,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55401. RP Geweke, JF (reprint author), UNIV MINNESOTA,DEPT ECON,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55455, USA. RI Keane, Michael/O-2840-2013 OI Keane, Michael/0000-0002-3918-1377 NR 19 TC 61 Z9 62 U1 0 U2 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA LAUSANNE PI LAUSANNE PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE, SWITZERLAND SN 0304-4076 J9 J ECONOMETRICS JI J. Econom. PD SEP PY 1997 VL 80 IS 1 BP 125 EP 165 DI 10.1016/S0304-4076(97)00005-5 PG 41 WC Economics; Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA XP940 UT WOS:A1997XP94000005 ER PT J AU Dynan, KE Rouse, CE AF Dynan, KE Rouse, CE TI The underrepresentation of women in economics: A study of undergraduate economics students SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC EDUCATION LA English DT Article AB Using Harvard University data, the authors present an analysis of why women are less likely than men to major in economics. Contrary to common wisdom, math background explains only a limited part of the gender difference in students' decisions to major in economics after taking an introductory course. Women do less well in economics courses relative to their other courses, possibly because of differing tastes or information about the nature of economics. C1 PRINCETON UNIV,PRINCETON,NJ 08544. RP Dynan, KE (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC, USA. NR 19 TC 24 Z9 24 U1 1 U2 7 PU HELDREF PUBLICATIONS PI WASHINGTON PA 1319 EIGHTEENTH ST NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20036-1802 SN 0022-0485 J9 J ECON EDUC JI J. Econ. Educ. PD FAL PY 1997 VL 28 IS 4 BP 350 EP & PG 20 WC Economics; Education & Educational Research SC Business & Economics; Education & Educational Research GA YB408 UT WOS:A1997YB40800006 ER PT J AU Huck, P AF Huck, P TI British population in the twentieth century - Tranter,NL SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC HISTORY LA English DT Book Review RP Huck, P (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,CHICAGO,IL 60604, USA. NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS PI NEW YORK PA 40 WEST 20TH STREET, NEW YORK, NY 10011-4211 SN 0022-0507 J9 J ECON HIST JI J. Econ. Hist. PD SEP PY 1997 VL 57 IS 3 BP 734 EP 735 PG 2 WC Economics; History; History Of Social Sciences SC Business & Economics; History; Social Sciences - Other Topics GA XU094 UT WOS:A1997XU09400017 ER PT J AU McKinney, RJ AF McKinney, RJ TI Sources of online US legislative and regulatory information SO JOURNAL OF GOVERNMENT INFORMATION LA English DT Article DE online congressional information; online federal regulatory information; online state legislative and regulatory information; Internet sources for legislative and regulatory information; CQ's Washington Alert; Legi-Slate; Lexis-Nexis; Westlaw; CIS Congressional Compass; GPO Access; Thomas; Knight-Ridder Information; State Net; Federal News Service; Federal Document Clearing House (FDCH) AB This article briefly describes and sets out in comparison table form all major online sources for U.S. federal and state legislative and regulatory information for both commercial dial-in services and Internet sources. An extensive table, organized alphabetically in more than 50 information categories, notes the name of each file covering a category and from what year the information is maintained. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. RP McKinney, RJ (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,LAW LIB,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 1 PU PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD PI OXFORD PA THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD, ENGLAND OX5 1GB SN 1352-0237 J9 J GOV INFORM JI J. Gov. Inf. PD SEP-OCT PY 1997 VL 24 IS 5 BP 383 EP 395 DI 10.1016/S1352-0237(97)00042-7 PG 13 WC Information Science & Library Science SC Information Science & Library Science GA YF733 UT WOS:A1997YF73300004 ER PT J AU Bekaert, G Hodrick, RJ Marshall, DA AF Bekaert, G Hodrick, RJ Marshall, DA TI The implications of first-order risk aversion for asset market risk premiums SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE first-order risk aversion; asset prices; exchange rates; general equilibrium ID FOREIGN-EXCHANGE MARKETS; EQUITY PREMIUM; TIME-VARIATION; TERM STRUCTURE; RETURNS; MODELS; RATES; CURRENCY; SUBSTITUTION; CONSUMPTION AB In an effort to explain simultaneously the excess return predictability observed in equity, bond and foreign exchange markets, we incorporate preferences exhibiting first-order risk aversion into a general equilibrium two-country monetary model. When we calibrate the model to US and Japanese data, we find that first-order risk aversion substantially increases excess return predictability. However, this increased predictability is insufficient to match the data. We conclude that the observed patterns of excess return predictability are unlikely to be explained purely by time-varying risk premiums generated by highly risk averse agents in a complete markets economy. C1 COLUMBIA UNIV,GRAD SCH BUSINESS,NEW YORK,NY 10027. STANFORD UNIV,STANFORD,CA 94305. NATL BUR ECON RES,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,CHICAGO,IL 60604. NR 37 TC 40 Z9 41 U1 0 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD SEP PY 1997 VL 40 IS 1 BP 3 EP 39 DI 10.1016/S0304-3932(97)00037-8 PG 37 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA XV185 UT WOS:A1997XV18500001 ER PT J AU Berger, AN Leusner, JH Mingo, JJ AF Berger, AN Leusner, JH Mingo, JJ TI The efficiency of bank branches SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE bank; efficiency; branch; merger; scale ID DATA ENVELOPMENT ANALYSIS; OPERATING EFFICIENCY; FUNCTIONAL FORM; SCALE; ECONOMIES; SCOPE; DEA AB An understanding of bank branch efficiency may help resolve a number of conceptual, measurement, and policy questions about efficiency at the bank level. We measure the efficiency of over 760 branches of a large U.S. commercial bank. We find that there are about twice as many branches as would minimize costs, but this may be optimal from a profitability standpoint because 'overbranching' raises revenues from providing extra customer convenience. X-inefficiencies are quite large, over 20% of operating costs. These findings may help explain some efficiency results commonly found in bank-level analysis, and have important implications regarding bank M&As and interstate branching. C1 WHARTON FINANCIAL INST CTR,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19104. UNIV CHICAGO,GRAD SCH BUSINESS,CHICAGO,IL 60637. RP Berger, AN (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,MAIL STOP 153,20TH & C ST NW,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 36 TC 95 Z9 99 U1 1 U2 17 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD SEP PY 1997 VL 40 IS 1 BP 141 EP 162 DI 10.1016/S0304-3932(97)00035-4 PG 22 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA XV185 UT WOS:A1997XV18500006 ER PT J AU Temzelides, T AF Temzelides, T TI Evolution, coordination, and banking panics SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE evolution; banking panics; contagion ID DEPOSIT INSURANCE; MODEL; RUNS AB I study equilibrium selection by an evolutionary process in an environment with multiple equilibria, one of which involves a banking panic. The analysis is built on a repeated version of the Diamond-Dybvig (1983) model. The optimal equilibrium is uniquely selected if it is also 'risk dominant'. When there are multiple banks, the probability of observing a panic increases as the size of the banks decreases. Local interaction generates contagion effects that allow a bank run to spread first among banks in the same geographic location and then throughout the population. RP Temzelides, T (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK PHILADELPHIA,RES DEPT,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19106, USA. NR 29 TC 17 Z9 19 U1 4 U2 7 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD SEP PY 1997 VL 40 IS 1 BP 163 EP 183 DI 10.1016/S0304-3932(97)00033-0 PG 21 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA XV185 UT WOS:A1997XV18500007 ER PT J AU Uribe, M AF Uribe, M TI Hysteresis in a simple model of currency substitution SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE currency substitution; dollarization; network externalities ID ECONOMY; MONEY; DEMAND; SEARCH AB A cash-in-advance model in which the cost of buying goods with a foreign currency is decreasing in the economy's accumulated experience in transacting in the foreign currency is shown to display hysteresis in money velocity; that is, a temporary increase in expected inflation can cause a permanent increase in velocity. In addition, the model implies that the domestic currency does not have to dominate the foreign currency in rate of return to induce agents to stop using the foreign currency. Finally, inflation rates that trigger currency substitution need not be associated with steady states in which the domestic currency disappears from circulation. RP Uribe, M (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 27 TC 31 Z9 33 U1 1 U2 7 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD SEP PY 1997 VL 40 IS 1 BP 185 EP 202 DI 10.1016/S0304-3932(97)00038-X PG 18 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA XV185 UT WOS:A1997XV18500008 ER PT J AU Kasa, K Popper, H AF Kasa, K Popper, H TI Monetary policy in Japan: A structural VAR analysis SO JOURNAL OF THE JAPANESE AND INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIES LA English DT Article AB This paper studies the objectives and operating procedures of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) during the period 1975-1994. It uses a modified version of the structural VAR of Bernanke and Mihov, which nests several alternative hypotheses concerning central bank behavior. The approach allows for separate identification of the anticipated and unanticipated components of monetary policy, and it is capable of distinguishing between interest rate targeting and various types of reserve targeting. Three main results emerge from the analysis. First, no single target can explain the BOJ's behavior. Instead, the BOJ appears to weight both variation in the call money rate and variation in nonborrowed reserves, with the weight on the call money rate increasing over time. Second, there is strong evidence that at times the BOJ has employed ''moral suasion'' to counter shocks in the demand for borrowed reserves. However, by the second half of the 1980s, this procedure was no longer being used. Third, plots of the overall stance of monetary policy and its unanticipated component clearly reveal that a sharp monetary contraction occurred between early 1990 and late 1992, with an equally sharp expansion since then. Perhaps surprisingly, both the contraction and the subsequent expansion appear to have occurred largely in response to prevailing economic conditions, rather than as an unanticipated change in policy. J. Japan. Int. Econ., September 1997, 11(3), pp. 275-295. Federal Reserve Bank, of San Francisco, 101 Market Street, San Francisco, California 94105; and Department of Economics, Santa Clara University, Santa Clara, California 95053. (C) 1997 Academic Press. C1 FED RESERVE BANK,SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94105. RP Kasa, K (reprint author), SANTA CLARA UNIV,DEPT ECON,SANTA CLARA,CA 95053, USA. NR 29 TC 19 Z9 19 U1 0 U2 3 PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC JNL-COMP SUBSCRIPTIONS PI SAN DIEGO PA 525 B ST, STE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 SN 0889-1583 J9 J JPN INT ECON JI J. Jpn. Inst. Econ. PD SEP PY 1997 VL 11 IS 3 BP 275 EP 295 DI 10.1006/jjie.1997.0382 PG 21 WC Economics; International Relations SC Business & Economics; International Relations GA YA594 UT WOS:A1997YA59400001 ER PT J AU Gibson, MS AF Gibson, MS TI More evidence on the link between bank health and investment in Japan SO JOURNAL OF THE JAPANESE AND INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIES LA English DT Article ID CORPORATE AB Among stock-market-listed Japanese firms in 1994-1995, the financial health of the firm's main bank did not significantly affect its investment behavior, after controlling for stock market valuation and cash flow. However, among the subset of bank-dependent firms, investment was lower by over 50% at firms that have one of the lowest-rated banks as their main bank. Splitting the sample by firm size rather than dependence on bank finance did not reveal a significant effect of bank health on investment at either large or small firms, suggesting that the common practice of using size as a proxy for dependence on bank finance may be misleading. Because low-rated banks are smaller and deal with fewer firms, and because bank-dependent firms themselves tend to be smaller than non-bank-dependent firms, the aggregate effect on business investment in 1994-1995 that I identify is tiny. These results contrast with M. Gibson (1995, J. Bits. 68, 281-308), a similar study which, using data for 1991-1992, found a small effect of poor bank health on investment for all stock-market-listed Japanese firms and no difference between bank-dependent and non-bank-dependent firms. J. Japan. Int. Econ., September 1997, 11(3), pp. 296-310. Division of International Finance, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C. 20551. (C) 1997 Academic Press. RP Gibson, MS (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK,DIV INT FINANCE,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 4 TC 16 Z9 16 U1 0 U2 1 PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC JNL-COMP SUBSCRIPTIONS PI SAN DIEGO PA 525 B ST, STE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 SN 0889-1583 J9 J JPN INT ECON JI J. Jpn. Inst. Econ. PD SEP PY 1997 VL 11 IS 3 BP 296 EP 310 DI 10.1006/jjie.1997.0379 PG 15 WC Economics; International Relations SC Business & Economics; International Relations GA YA594 UT WOS:A1997YA59400002 ER PT J AU Rapaport, C AF Rapaport, C TI Housing demand and community choice: An empirical analysis SO JOURNAL OF URBAN ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID TENURE CHOICE; ECONOMETRIC-ANALYSIS; MODEL; RACE; BIAS AB Housing demand reflects the household's simultaneous choice of the neighborhood, whether to own or rent the dwelling, and the quantity of housing services demanded. Existing literature emphasizes the final two factors, but overlooks the choice of community. This paper develops an econometric model that incorporates all three components, and then estimates this model using a sample of Tampa, Florida, households. Incorporating community choice increases the price elasticity of demand and reduces the differential between white and comparable nonwhite households. The results are robust to the inclusion of permanent income and taxes. (C) 1997 Academic Press. RP Rapaport, C (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,33 LIBERTY ST,NEW YORK,NY 10045, USA. NR 21 TC 33 Z9 33 U1 1 U2 3 PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC JNL-COMP SUBSCRIPTIONS PI SAN DIEGO PA 525 B ST, STE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 SN 0094-1190 J9 J URBAN ECON JI J. Urban Econ. PD SEP PY 1997 VL 42 IS 2 BP 243 EP 260 DI 10.1006/juec.1996.2023 PG 18 WC Economics; Urban Studies SC Business & Economics; Urban Studies GA XW147 UT WOS:A1997XW14700005 ER PT J AU Mauskopf, E Reifschneider, D AF Mauskopf, E Reifschneider, D TI Dynamic scoring, fiscal policy, and the short-run behavior of the macroeconomy SO NATIONAL TAX JOURNAL LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Symposium on Post-Election Agenda - Implementation or Confrontation CY MAY 19-20, 1997 CL ARLINGTON, VA AB Currently the near-term budgetary consequences of proposed changes to tax laws or federal spending are estimated under the implicit assumption that such changes have no measurable impact on output, prices, interest rates, or income. Consequently, feedback from the macroeconomy to federal expenditures and the tax base is ignored in scoring tax and spending proposals. This paper considers the advantages and complications involved in dynamic scoring of budget proposals. Such a procedure requires decisions concerning the appropriate macroeconomic model to use and the likely responses of both monetary policy and the public's expectations to the fiscal initiative. RP Mauskopf, E (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 13 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 1 PU NATL TAX ASSN PI COLUMBUS PA 5310 EAST MAIN ST, COLUMBUS, OH 43213 SN 0028-0283 J9 NATL TAX J JI Natl. Tax J. PD SEP PY 1997 VL 50 IS 3 BP 631 EP 655 PG 25 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA XV587 UT WOS:A1997XV58700017 ER PT J AU Engen, E Gravelle, J Smetters, K AF Engen, E Gravelle, J Smetters, K TI Dynamic tax models: Why they do the things they do SO NATIONAL TAX JOURNAL LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Symposium on Post-Election Agenda - Implementation or Confrontation CY MAY 19-20, 1997 CL ARLINGTON, VA ID PANEL DATA; SUBSTITUTION; CONSUMPTION; TAXATION AB Fundamental tax reform has received a lot of attention during the past year. Unfortunately, different models suggest very different quantitative conclusions for similar reforms. Even more unfortunate is that it is has been difficult until now to know why the results differ, since not only do the models vary in features but also in initial calibration. The innovation of this paper is to examine a broad range of models, where each model is calibrated to generate the same initial economy. This allows us to focus on model features without concern as to whether differences in the initial calibration are driving the results. C1 LIB CONGRESS,CONGRESS RES SERV,WASHINGTON,DC 20540. US CONGRESS,CONGRESS BUDGET OFF,WASHINGTON,DC 20515. RP Engen, E (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 43 TC 22 Z9 22 U1 0 U2 2 PU NATL TAX ASSN PI COLUMBUS PA 5310 EAST MAIN ST, COLUMBUS, OH 43213 SN 0028-0283 J9 NATL TAX J JI Natl. Tax J. PD SEP PY 1997 VL 50 IS 3 BP 657 EP 682 PG 26 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA XV587 UT WOS:A1997XV58700018 ER PT J AU Bleakley, H Fuhrer, JC AF Bleakley, H Fuhrer, JC TI Shifts in the beveridge curve, job matching, and labor market dynamics SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID UNEMPLOYMENT AB The Beveridge curve-the scatter plot of unemployment rates versus vacancy rates-has recently shifted inward dramatically. While the Beveridge curve is often used to summarize the state of the labor market, it is not a structural economic relationship. Thus, in order to understand the labor market implications of recent shifts in the curve, we must first understand the labor market activities that give rise to the Beveridge curve. The article examines the Beveridge curve over the past 30 years. The authors discuss some of the issues surrounding the job-matching process and attempt to estimate the extent to which changes in the job-matching function are responsible for changes in the position of the Beveridge curve. They also consider other potential sources of shifts in the Beveridge curve, including shifts in the age and gender composition of the labor force and changes in the amount of ''churning'' in the labor market. They find significant increases in matching efficiency, significant drops in labor force growth, and a decrease in labor force churning, the sum of which account for the inward shift in the Beveridge curve since 1987. RP Bleakley, H (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02210, USA. RI Fuhrer, Jeff/F-8852-2013 NR 10 TC 19 Z9 19 U1 0 U2 2 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD SEP-OCT PY 1997 BP 3 EP & PG 18 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA YD670 UT WOS:A1997YD67000001 ER PT J AU Kopcke, RW AF Kopcke, RW TI Are stocks overvalued? SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article AB By most standards, the price of equities in the United States has risen remarkably rapidly during the last 15 years. Since 1994 alone, the Standard & Poor's index of 500 stock prices has doubled. Although the rapid growth of corporations' profits has propelled the price of their stock, shareholders also are willing to pay a greater price per dollar of their companies' profits, and the valuation of corporations' earnings is now nearly as high as it has been since World War II. For the moment, the value of equity may rest on the growth of earnings, but in the longer run the price of stocks depends on the return that corporations earn on their investments, the growth of their opportunities for making new investments without sacrificing their return, and the return that shareholders require of their stocks. This article compares the recent price of stocks to traditional standards for valuing equities, finding not only that prices are high by almost all measures but, also that the appreciation of equity has been exceptionally dependable. The author uses a simple model to compare the recent data for returns and growth with the value of-equity, concluding that companies' recent performance does not support fully the current price of stocks, Although the current values of corporations' assets and earnings in financial markets exceed those that prevailed in the 1960s, the rate of return earned by corporations is only three-quarters as great as it was in the 1960s. The author concludes that a lower shareholders' discount rate, perhaps fostered by the consistently high growth of profits during much of the 1990s, could explain the prevailing value of equities. RP Kopcke, RW (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON, BOSTON, MA 02210 USA. NR 14 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 0 U2 2 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD SEP-OCT PY 1997 BP 21 EP + PG 22 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA YD670 UT WOS:A1997YD67000002 ER PT J AU Peek, J Rosengren, SE AF Peek, J Rosengren, SE TI How well capitalized are well-capitalized banks? SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID CREDIT CRUNCH; RISK AB The wave of bank and savings and loan failures in the 1980s and early 1990s, and the resulting losses to deposit insurance funds, served to highlight the need for banks to hold sufficient capital to survive difficult times. In addition, many argued that deposit insurance reduces the market discipline that depositors might otherwise provide. Consequently, recent bank regulatory initiatives increasingly have emphasized the role of bank capital as a cushion to allow banks to absorb adverse shocks without experiencing insolvency. While regulations are being designed to reward banks that are deemed to be well. capitalized and restrict those that are not, no dear consensus has been reached in the academic literature on just-how much capital is necessary. This article examines whether institutions satisfying the ''well-capitalized'' criteria before and during the recent banking crisis in New England had sufficient capital to weather the storm. The authors find that many of the institutions that either failed or required substantial supervisory intervention were well capitalized prior to the emergence of banking problems in New England. Problems of the magnitude recently experienced in New England would require greater capital cushions than the minimum ''well-capitalized'' prompt corrective action threshold, if widespread bank insolvencies were to be avoided. C1 BOSTON COLL,CHESTNUT HILL,MA 02167. RP Peek, J (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02210, USA. NR 20 TC 5 Z9 5 U1 0 U2 1 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD SEP-OCT PY 1997 BP 41 EP & PG 11 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA YD670 UT WOS:A1997YD67000003 ER PT J AU Higgins, M Osler, C AF Higgins, M Osler, C TI Asset market hangovers and economic growth: The OECD during 1984-93 SO OXFORD REVIEW OF ECONOMIC POLICY LA English DT Article ID BUSINESS INVESTMENT; STOCK-MARKET; TAX POLICY; EXPECTATIONS; MODELS; PRICES AB Asset prices and investment were unusually weak throughout the industrial world during the early 1990s. This paper highlights this stylized fact, and connects if with another: in mast of the industrial world, asset markets boomed for several years before collapsing around 1989. The paper suggests that asset market bubbles during the late 1980s may have left the industrial world with an 'asset marker hangover' in the early 1990s, in the form of sluggish asset markets and investment. Empirical support for this hypothesis is provided based on cross-country data for equity and real estate markets in most industrial countries. We suggest that financial market developments not justified by fundamentals can substantially affect real activity. C1 Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10046 USA. RP Higgins, M (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10046 USA. NR 73 TC 9 Z9 10 U1 0 U2 1 PU OXFORD UNIV PRESS PI OXFORD PA GREAT CLARENDON ST, OXFORD OX2 6DP, ENGLAND SN 0266-903X J9 OXFORD REV ECON POL JI Oxf. Rev. Econ. Policy PD FAL PY 1997 VL 13 IS 3 BP 110 EP 134 DI 10.1093/oxrep/13.3.110 PG 25 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA YM321 UT WOS:000071051900007 ER PT J AU Wynne, MA AF Wynne, MA TI More on optimal denominations for coins and currency SO ECONOMICS LETTERS LA English DT Article DE currency denominations; problem of Bachet AB Telser [Telser, L.B., 1995. Optimal denominations for coins and currency. Economics Letters 49, 425-427.] has shown that the problem of Bachet helps answer the question of the optimal denominational structure of currency in the U.S. and U.K. This note provides further evidence to support this claim using cross-country data. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science S.A. RP Wynne, MA (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK DALLAS,RES DEPT,2200 N PEARL ST,DALLAS,TX 75201, USA. NR 5 TC 12 Z9 12 U1 1 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA LAUSANNE PI LAUSANNE PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE, SWITZERLAND SN 0165-1765 J9 ECON LETT JI Econ. Lett. PD AUG 29 PY 1997 VL 55 IS 2 BP 221 EP 225 DI 10.1016/S0165-1765(97)00080-3 PG 5 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA XZ776 UT WOS:A1997XZ77600011 ER PT J AU Grossman, HI Iyigun, MF AF Grossman, HI Iyigun, MF TI Population increase and the end of colonialism SO ECONOMICA LA English DT Article AB Between 1946 and 1976, the European powers granted independence to all of their large colonies in Africa and Southeast Asia. This paper attempts to provide an economic explanation for this remarkable ending to the era of colonialism. The main theoretical innovation is to consider the effect of population increase on the allocation of time by the indigenous population between productive and subversive activities. The analysis suggests that the increase in population during the colonial period increased the potential private return to subversive activity until the colonies became a net burden on the metropolitan governments. It also suggests that there was less subversive activity in colonies in which the market for indigenous labour was monopsonized because monopsonistic employers internalized the potential negative effect of subversive activity on net profits. C1 FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC. RP Grossman, HI (reprint author), BROWN UNIV,PROVIDENCE,RI 02912, USA. NR 27 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 0 U2 3 PU ECONOMICA PUBL OFFICE PI LONDON PA LONDON SCH OF ECON & POLIT SCI HOUGHTON ST, LONDON, ENGLAND WC2A 2AE SN 0013-0427 J9 ECONOMICA JI Economica PD AUG PY 1997 VL 64 IS 255 BP 483 EP 493 DI 10.1111/1468-0335.00092 PG 11 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA XW995 UT WOS:A1997XW99500007 ER PT J AU Chang, R AF Chang, R TI Financial integration with and without international policy coordination SO INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID GROWTH AB This paper studies an economy in which financial integration increases world welfare in the presence of international policy coordination but decreases world welfare in its absence. This happens because financial integration enhances the impact of domestic government policies on foreigners, which increases welfare losses from noncooperative policymaking. The policy message is that financial integration can be successful if and only if governments agree to coordinate their macroeconomic policies. RP Chang, R (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK ATLANTA,ATLANTA,GA, USA. NR 18 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 1 U2 5 PU UNIV PENN PI PHILADELPHIA PA DEPT ECON MCNEIL BLDG CR, PHILADELPHIA, PA 19174 SN 0020-6598 J9 INT ECON REV JI Int. Econ. Rev. PD AUG PY 1997 VL 38 IS 3 BP 547 EP 564 DI 10.2307/2527280 PG 18 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA XP535 UT WOS:A1997XP53500005 ER PT J AU Balke, NS Fomby, TB AF Balke, NS Fomby, TB TI Threshold cointegration SO INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID TIME-SERIES REGRESSION; UNIT-ROOT; NUISANCE PARAMETER; HYPOTHESIS; TESTS; VECTORS; ESTIMATOR; CHAINS; DEMAND; MODELS AB In this paper, we consider a model in which there is discontinuous adjustment to a long-run equilibrium. Here, the equilibrium error follows a threshold autoregression that is mean-reverting outside a given range and has a unit root inside the range. We suggest a two-step approach for examining threshold cointegration. We find that standard time series methods developed for testing for cointegration in the linear case work reasonably well when threshold cointegration is present. We then consider a 'sup-Wald' test of linearity that takes the double-threshold model as the alternative hypothesis. C1 FED RESERVE BANK DALLAS,DALLAS,TX. RP Balke, NS (reprint author), SO METHODIST UNIV,DALLAS,TX 75275, USA. NR 38 TC 457 Z9 474 U1 2 U2 7 PU UNIV PENN PI PHILADELPHIA PA DEPT ECON MCNEIL BLDG CR, PHILADELPHIA, PA 19174 SN 0020-6598 J9 INT ECON REV JI Int. Econ. Rev. PD AUG PY 1997 VL 38 IS 3 BP 627 EP 645 PG 19 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA XP535 UT WOS:A1997XP53500009 ER PT J AU Betts, CM Smith, BD AF Betts, CM Smith, BD TI Money, banking, and the determination of real and nominal exchange rates SO INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID ONE PRICE; MODEL; LIQUIDITY; GOODS AB We consider a model where spatial separation, limited communication, and stochastic relocation create a role for banks and country-specific currencies. The same factors also permit a deviation from the law of one price. We examine how monetary policies influence real and nominal rates of exchange and real and nominal rates of interest under both fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes. We also demonstrate that both regimes are characterized by an indeterminacy of both the real and the nominal rate of exchange. C1 CORNELL UNIV,ITHACA,NY 14853. FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55480. RP Betts, CM (reprint author), UNIV SO CALIF,LOS ANGELES,CA 90089, USA. NR 32 TC 5 Z9 5 U1 4 U2 7 PU UNIV PENN PI PHILADELPHIA PA DEPT ECON MCNEIL BLDG CR, PHILADELPHIA, PA 19174 SN 0020-6598 J9 INT ECON REV JI Int. Econ. Rev. PD AUG PY 1997 VL 38 IS 3 BP 703 EP 734 DI 10.2307/2527288 PG 32 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA XP535 UT WOS:A1997XP53500013 ER PT J AU Clyde, WC Osler, CL AF Clyde, WC Osler, CL TI Charting: Chaos theory in disguise? SO JOURNAL OF FUTURES MARKETS LA English DT Article ID NONLINEAR DYNAMICS; TECHNICAL ANALYSIS; FINANCIAL-MARKETS; FUTURES PRICES; TRADING RULES; STOCK RETURNS; TIME-SERIES; DEPENDENCE; DIMENSION C1 FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,NEW YORK,NY. RP Clyde, WC (reprint author), QUINNIPIAC COLL,DEPT FINANCE,HAMDEN,CT 06518, USA. NR 54 TC 18 Z9 18 U1 0 U2 2 PU JOHN WILEY & SONS INC PI NEW YORK PA 605 THIRD AVE, NEW YORK, NY 10158-0012 SN 0270-7314 J9 J FUTURES MARKETS JI J. Futures Mark. PD AUG PY 1997 VL 17 IS 5 BP 489 EP 514 DI 10.1002/(SICI)1096-9934(199708)17:5<489::AID-FUT1>3.0.CO;2-B PG 26 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA XG864 UT WOS:A1997XG86400001 ER PT J AU Cushman, DO Zha, T AF Cushman, DO Zha, T TI Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE small open economy; identification; block exogeneity; monetary policy ID LIQUIDITY; TRANSMISSION; DISTURBANCES; FLUCTUATIONS; FOREIGN AB Previous empirical study on the effects of monetary policy shocks in small open economies has generated puzzling dynamic responses in various macroeconomic variables. This paper argues that these puzzles derive from an identification of monetary policy that is inappropriate for such economies. To remedy this, it is proposed that a structural model be estimated to explicitly account for the features of the small open economy. Such a model is applied to Canada with tightly estimated results overall, The dynamic responses to the identified monetary policy shock are consistent with standard theory and highlight the exchange rate as a transmission mechanism. C1 FED RESERVE BANK ATLANTA,RES DEPT,ATLANTA,GA 30303. UNIV SASKATCHEWAN,DEPT ECON,SASKATOON,SK S7N 5A5,CANADA. NR 27 TC 152 Z9 157 U1 2 U2 6 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD AUG PY 1997 VL 39 IS 3 BP 433 EP 448 DI 10.1016/S0304-3932(97)00029-9 PG 16 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA XN793 UT WOS:A1997XN79300004 ER PT J AU Fisher, JDM AF Fisher, JDM TI Relative prices, complementarities and comovement among components of aggregate expenditures SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE real business cycles; comovement; complementarities; GMM ID BUSINESS-CYCLE; FLUCTUATIONS; TIME; CONSUMPTION; MODELS; LABOR AB Recent work suggests that the standard real business cycle framework has difficulty accounting for co-movement among aggregate expenditure components when they are disaggregated even slightly to include business and household investment. In addition, relative prices of these goods have displayed substantial variation over the post-war period. This paper reports that incorporating a source of empirically plausible relative price variability makes the framework's implications for comovement even worse, compounding the comovement problem. The possibility that complementarities in the production of household and business capital may help account for observed co-movement is considered. The results suggest that complementarities improved the framework's empirical performance. C1 UNIV WESTERN ONTARIO,DEPT ECON,LONDON,ON N6A 5C2,CANADA. RP Fisher, JDM (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,ECON RES DEPT,230 S LASAKE ST,CHICAGO,IL 60604, USA. NR 22 TC 24 Z9 24 U1 0 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD AUG PY 1997 VL 39 IS 3 BP 449 EP 474 DI 10.1016/S0304-3932(97)00024-X PG 26 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA XN793 UT WOS:A1997XN79300005 ER PT J AU Demirguc-Kunt, A Diwan, I Spiegel, MM AF Demirguc-Kunt, A Diwan, I Spiegel, MM TI Heterogeneity in bank valuation of LDC debt: Evidence from the 1988 Brazilian debt-reduction program SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE sovereign debt; banks; Brady plan ID CREDITORS AB Using data on bank choices in the 1988 Brazilian debt-reduction deal, we confirm predictable heterogeneity in bank valuation of Brazilian claims. In the presence of a functioning secondary market for LDC debt, the source of this heterogeneity is unclear. We introduce a model in which regulatory concerns influence bank choice, Bank choices in debt reduction programs are aimed at maximizing the magnitude of their transfer from regulatory agencies. As a result, bank choices reflect their characteristics, including financial strength and exposure to the debtor country. The directions of influence correspond to the predictions of our model. C1 FED RESERVE BANK SAN FRANCISCO, SAN FRANCISCO, CA 94015 USA. WORLD BANK, WASHINGTON, DC 20433 USA. NR 16 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD AUG PY 1997 VL 39 IS 3 BP 535 EP 550 DI 10.1016/S0304-3932(97)00021-4 PG 16 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA XN793 UT WOS:A1997XN79300008 ER PT J AU Demsetz, RS Strahan, PE AF Demsetz, RS Strahan, PE TI Diversification, size, and risk at bank holding companies SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID DEPOSIT AB This paper shows that large bank holding companies (BHCs) are better diversified than small BHCs based on market measures of diversification. We find, however, that better diversification does not translate into reductions in risk. The risk-reducing potential of diversification at large BHCs is offset by their lower capital ratios and larger C&I loan portfolios. Our results suggest that diversification may provide an important motive for consolidation by allowing BHCs to pursue riskier lending while operating with greater leverage. RP Demsetz, RS (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,NEW YORK,NY 10045, USA. NR 16 TC 180 Z9 182 U1 5 U2 18 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1997 VL 29 IS 3 BP 300 EP 313 DI 10.2307/2953695 PG 14 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA XR852 UT WOS:A1997XR85200003 ER PT J AU Peristiani, S AF Peristiani, S TI Do mergers improve the X-efficiency and scale efficiency of US banks? Evidence from the 1980s SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article AB A central issue currently debated among bank analysts and economists is whether mergers enhance the efficiency of surviving banks. This paper investigates the postmerger performance of acquiring banks that participated in a merger during the period 1980-90. The evidence suggests that acquirers failed to improve X-efficiency after the merger. Acquiring banks, however, experienced moderate gains in scale efficiency relative to a control sample. The second part of the paper uses regression analysis to identify factors influencing the performance of merging banks. The regression results suggest that improvements in postmerger performance depend on the ability of the bank to strengthen asset quality. we find no evidence to support the theory that in-market mergers lead to significant improvements in efficiency. RP Peristiani, S (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,CAPITAL MARKETS FUNCT,NEW YORK,NY 10045, USA. NR 12 TC 76 Z9 77 U1 1 U2 9 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1997 VL 29 IS 3 BP 326 EP 337 DI 10.2307/2953697 PG 12 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA XR852 UT WOS:A1997XR85200005 ER PT J AU Fuhrer, JC AF Fuhrer, JC TI The (Un)importance of forward-looking behavior in price specifications SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID MONETARY; DISINFLATION; INFLATION; COSTS AB The seminal work of Phelps, Taylor, and Calvo developed forward-looking models of price determination that imparted inertia to the price level. These models incorporate expectations of future prices and excess demand by imposing constraints (typically lag-lead symmetry constraints) that force future variables to enter the specification. In this paper, I test the empirical significance of future prices in specifications like those of Taylor. I find that expectations of future prices are empirically unimportant in explaining price and inflation behavior. However, the dynamics of a model that includes a purely backward-looking inflation specification differ substantially-and not altogether pleasingly-from those with a forward-looking specification. RP Fuhrer, JC (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON, RES DEPT, BOSTON, MA 02210 USA. RI Fuhrer, Jeff/F-8852-2013 NR 18 TC 138 Z9 142 U1 2 U2 5 PU WILEY-BLACKWELL PI MALDEN PA COMMERCE PLACE, 350 MAIN ST, MALDEN 02148, MA USA SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1997 VL 29 IS 3 BP 338 EP 350 DI 10.2307/2953698 PG 13 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA XR852 UT WOS:A1997XR85200006 ER PT J AU Loungani, P Sheets, N AF Loungani, P Sheets, N TI Central bank independence, inflation, and growth in transition economies SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article AB This paper documents two empirical relationships that have emerged as the former communist countries have taken steps to transform their economies. First. data from a sample of twelve transition economies suggest that increased central bank independence (CBI) is correlated with lower inflation rates. This CBI-inflation correlation is not well explained by initial economic conditions and persists after controlling for fiscal performance and the overall quality of economic reforms. Second. across a larger set of twenty-five transition economies, there is a strong and robust negative relationship between inflation and subsequent real GDP growth. inflation's adverse effect on investment appears to be one significant channel through which the relationship between inflation and growth arises. RP Loungani, P (reprint author), DIV INT FINANCE,FED RESERVE BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 27 TC 49 Z9 49 U1 1 U2 3 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1997 VL 29 IS 3 BP 381 EP 399 DI 10.2307/2953701 PG 19 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA XR852 UT WOS:A1997XR85200009 ER PT J AU Hooker, MA Knetter, MM AF Hooker, MA Knetter, MM TI The effects of military spending on economic activity: Evidence from state procurement spending SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID PANEL-DATA; MODELS AB We use state data from the period 1963-1994 to estimate the response of employment growth to military procurement spending. The state-year panel provides greater variation in both variables than aggregate dots, There are two main findings. First military procurement spending does explain a statistically significant degree of the variation in employment growth across states, even in the presence of fixed effects for time and state and other controls. Second, we find evidence in support of a nonlinear relationship between procurement spending and employment growth. In particular, large adverse state procurement shocks have proportionately larger effects on state employment growth rates. C1 FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02210. DARTMOUTH COLL,DEPT ECON,HANOVER,NH 03755. DARTMOUTH COLL,AMOS TUCK SCH BUSINESS ADM,HANOVER,NH 03755. NATL BUR ECON RES,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. RP Hooker, MA (reprint author), WELLESLEY COLL,WELLESLEY,MA 02181, USA. NR 27 TC 27 Z9 27 U1 0 U2 2 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1997 VL 29 IS 3 BP 400 EP 421 DI 10.2307/2953702 PG 22 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA XR852 UT WOS:A1997XR85200010 ER PT J AU Sichel, DE AF Sichel, DE TI The productivity slowdown: Is a growing unmeasurable sector the culprit? SO REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS LA English DT Article AB The productivity slowdown of the early 1970s continues to puzzle economists. A frequent explanation of this puzzle is that mismeasurement of output has worsened enough to help account for the apparent shortfall of output growth. Griliches (1994) highlighted one channel through which this worsening measurement could occur. He raised the possibility that-because output growth in the service sector likely is undermeasured-the rising share of services has led to greater undermeasurement of overall economic growth. This paper demonstrates that this argument is of little quantitative significance. Even under assumptions most favorable to the hypothesis, the rising share of services has had only a small impact on measurement error. These results-along with evidence from Baily and Gordon (1988)-make mismeasurement of output an improbable explanation for the productivity slowdown in aggregate data. C1 BROOKINGS INST,WASHINGTON,DC 20036. RP Sichel, DE (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC, USA. NR 13 TC 9 Z9 9 U1 0 U2 2 PU M I T PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA FIVE CAMBRIDGE CENTER, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 SN 0034-6535 J9 REV ECON STAT JI Rev. Econ. Stat. PD AUG PY 1997 VL 79 IS 3 BP 367 EP 370 DI 10.1162/003465300556940 PG 4 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA XP330 UT WOS:A1997XP33000003 ER PT J AU Hung, JA Charrette, S AF Hung, JA Charrette, S TI The looming US external debt: How serious is it? SO CONTEMPORARY ECONOMIC POLICY LA English DT Article AB This article examines the stare of U.S. external debt accumulation, especially the rising burden of interest payments. It points our that the favorable yield differential between U.S. external assets and liabilities may be declining at the same time the United States has become the world's largest international debtor. The favorable yield differential has enabled the United States, which became a net debtor in 1987, to avoid making net interest payments on its international debt until 1994. However, servicing the increasing U.S. net international debt is likely to be a much greater burden in the future as the favorable yield gap wanes while net debt continues to grow (JEL F21, F32, F34). C1 FINANCIAL PLANNER,CHICAGO,IL. FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,NEW YORK,NY 10045. RP Hung, JA (reprint author), CONGRESS BUDGET OFF,WASHINGTON,DC 20515, USA. NR 14 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 0 U2 3 PU WESTERN ECONOMIC ASSOC INT PI HUNTINGTON BEACH PA 7400 CENTER AVE SUITE 109, HUNTINGTON BEACH, CA 92647-3039 SN 1074-3529 J9 CONTEMP ECON POLICY JI Contemp. Econ. Policy PD JUL PY 1997 VL 15 IS 3 BP 32 EP 41 PG 10 WC Economics; Public Administration SC Business & Economics; Public Administration GA XN864 UT WOS:A1997XN86400004 ER PT J AU Tinsley, PA Krieger, R AF Tinsley, PA Krieger, R TI Asymmetric adjustments of price and output SO ECONOMIC INQUIRY LA English DT Article AB Classical theories predict rapid price adjustments, which are observed in inflationary episodes; Keynesian theories of sticky prices predict sluggish price responses, which are observed in contractions. We attempt to reconcile these observations in a model with asymmetries in producer price and output adjustments. Analysis of SIC two-digit industry data indicates production frequently exhibits negative asymmetry-shortfalls from trend are larger than positive deviations-whereas price often displays positive asymmetry. Evidence supporting two rational motives for asymmetric pricing is presented, but causal interactions between output and price asymmetries are not resolved. C1 INT MONETARY FUND, WASHINGTON, DC 20431 USA. RP Tinsley, PA (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD, DIV RES & STAT, WASHINGTON, DC USA. NR 45 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 0 U2 1 PU WILEY-BLACKWELL PI HOBOKEN PA 111 RIVER ST, HOBOKEN 07030-5774, NJ USA SN 0095-2583 EI 1465-7295 J9 ECON INQ JI Econ. Inq. PD JUL PY 1997 VL 35 IS 3 BP 631 EP 652 PG 22 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA XN724 UT WOS:A1997XN72400016 ER PT J AU Craig, B AF Craig, B TI Fortran PowerStation (version 4.0) SO ECONOMIC JOURNAL LA English DT Software Review RP Craig, B (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,CLEVELAND,OH 44114, USA. NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU BLACKWELL PUBL LTD PI OXFORD PA 108 COWLEY RD, OXFORD, OXON, ENGLAND OX4 1JF SN 0013-0133 J9 ECON J JI Econ. J. PD JUL PY 1997 VL 107 IS 443 BP 1276 EP 1280 PG 5 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA XK915 UT WOS:A1997XK91500052 ER PT J AU Estrella, A Mishkin, FS AF Estrella, A Mishkin, FS TI The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank SO EUROPEAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article DE term structure; inflation; forecasting; monetary policy AB This paper examines the relationship of the term structure of interest rates to monetary policy instruments and to subsequent real activity and inflation in both Europe and the United States. The results show that monetary policy is an important determinant of the term structure spread, but is unlikely to be the only determinant. In addition, there is significant predictive power for both real activity and inflation. The yield curve is thus a simple and accurate measure that should be viewed as one piece of useful information which, along with other information, can be used to help guide European monetary policy. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V. C1 FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,NEW YORK,NY 10045. COLUMBIA UNIV,GRAD SCH BUSINESS,NEW YORK,NY 10027. NATL BUR ECON RES,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. NR 35 TC 126 Z9 128 U1 0 U2 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0014-2921 J9 EUR ECON REV JI Eur. Econ. Rev. PD JUL PY 1997 VL 41 IS 7 BP 1375 EP 1401 DI 10.1016/S0014-2921(96)00050-5 PG 27 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA XL409 UT WOS:A1997XL40900007 ER PT J AU Huck, P AF Huck, P TI Shifts in the seasonality of infant deaths in nine English towns during the 19th century: A case for reduced breast feeding? SO EXPLORATIONS IN ECONOMIC HISTORY LA English DT Article ID MORTALITY; ENGLAND; LONDON; BRITAIN; MILK; AGE AB I compare the seasonality of infant deaths in a sample of industrial parishes in Northern England early in the 19th century with that of the same localities at the end of the century and find that a winter peak in deaths was replaced by a summer peak and that mortality became more responsive to hot summers during the course of the century. I show that reduced breast feeding is a plausible explanation for the increased summer mortality and can help explain the failure of infant mortality to fall alongside child mortality after mid-century. (C) 1997 Academic Press. RP Huck, P (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,CHICAGO,IL, USA. NR 40 TC 10 Z9 10 U1 0 U2 6 PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC JNL-COMP SUBSCRIPTIONS PI SAN DIEGO PA 525 B ST, STE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 SN 0014-4983 J9 EXPLOR ECON HIST JI Explor. Econ. Hist. PD JUL PY 1997 VL 34 IS 3 BP 368 EP 386 DI 10.1006/exeh.1997.0677 PG 19 WC Economics; History Of Social Sciences SC Business & Economics; Social Sciences - Other Topics GA XM592 UT WOS:A1997XM59200005 ER PT J AU Clarida, RH AF Clarida, Richard H. TI The Real Exchange Rate and US Manufacturing Profits: A Theoretical Framework with some Empirical Support SO INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FINANCE & ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE exchange rates; pass-through; international macroeconomics ID COINTEGRATION VECTORS; TIME-SERIES; MODELS AB This paper studies the relationship between the real exchange rate and manufacturing profits using Marston's model of pricing-to-market. Looking at US data, we find that a sustained real depreciation of the dollar has a significant and substantial influence on manufacturing profits. During the early 1980s, the appreciation of the dollar reduced profits by at least 25% conditional on the realized time path of sales, costs, and the US markup. The post-plaza depreciation of the dollar boosted profits at least 30%. (C) 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. C1 Columbia Univ, Natl Bur Econ Res, Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10027 USA. RP Clarida, RH (reprint author), Columbia Univ, Natl Bur Econ Res, Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10027 USA. NR 10 TC 7 Z9 7 U1 0 U2 1 PU WILEY-BLACKWELL PI MALDEN PA COMMERCE PLACE, 350 MAIN ST, MALDEN 02148, MA USA SN 1076-9307 J9 INT J FINANC ECON JI Int. J. Financ. Econ. PD JUL PY 1997 VL 2 IS 3 BP 177 EP 187 DI 10.1002/(SICI)1099-1158(199707)2:3<177::AID-IJFE50>3.0.CO;2-U PG 11 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA V17HY UT WOS:000207929500001 ER PT J AU Berger, AN Mester, LJ AF Berger, AN Mester, LJ TI Inside the black box: What explains differences in the efficiencies of financial institutions? SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article DE bank; efficiency; cost; profit ID COMMERCIAL-BANKS; CORPORATE-CONTROL; SCALE EFFICIENCY; UNITED-STATES; ECONOMIES; COST; FIRM; INDUSTRY; SAVINGS; MODEL AB Over the past several years, substantial research effort has gone into measuring the efficiency of financial institutions, Many studies have found that inefficiencies are quite large, on the order of 20% or more of total banking industry costs and about half of the industry's potential profits. There is no consensus on the sources of the differences in measured efficiency. This paper examines several possible sources, including differences in efficiency concept, measurement method, and a number of bank, market, and regulatory characteristics. We review the existing literature and provide new evidence using data on US banks over the period 1990-1995. C1 WHARTON FINANCIAL INST CTR, PHILADELPHIA, PA 19104 USA. FED RESERVE BANK PHILADELPHIA, PHILADELPHIA, PA 19106 USA. UNIV PENN, WHARTON SCH, DEPT FINANCE, PHILADELPHIA, PA 19104 USA. RP Berger, AN (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST, BOARD GOVERNORS, 20TH & C STS NW, MAIL STOP 153, WASHINGTON, DC 20551 USA. NR 51 TC 496 Z9 509 U1 3 U2 37 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 EI 1872-6372 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD JUL PY 1997 VL 21 IS 7 BP 895 EP 947 DI 10.1016/S0378-4266(97)00010-1 PG 53 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA XX110 UT WOS:A1997XX11000001 ER PT J AU Faust, J Leeper, EM AF Faust, J Leeper, EM TI When do long-run identifying restrictions give reliable results? SO JOURNAL OF BUSINESS & ECONOMIC STATISTICS LA English DT Article DE identification; long-run restriction; vector autoregression ID UNIT-ROOT TESTS; SUPPLY DISTURBANCES; AGGREGATE DEMAND AB Many recent articles have identified behavioral disturbances in vector autoregressions by imposing restrictions on the long-run effects of shocks. This article demonstrates that this approach will be unreliable unless the underlying economy satisfies three types of strong restrictions. Although many aspects of these issues have been raised before. this article draws out and illustrates the implications for inferences under the long-run scheme. Furthermore, it provides strategies for dealing with the problems. C1 INDIANA UNIV,DEPT ECON,BLOOMINGTON,IN 47405. RP Faust, J (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD,INT FINANCE DIV,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 29 TC 151 Z9 154 U1 0 U2 4 PU AMER STATISTICAL ASSOC PI ALEXANDRIA PA 1429 DUKE ST, ALEXANDRIA, VA 22314 SN 0735-0015 J9 J BUS ECON STAT JI J. Bus. Econ. Stat. PD JUL PY 1997 VL 15 IS 3 BP 345 EP 353 DI 10.2307/1392338 PG 9 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods; Statistics & Probability SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences; Mathematics GA XE949 UT WOS:A1997XE94900006 ER PT J AU Berlin, M Mester, LJ AF Berlin, Mitchell Mester, Loretta J. TI Why Is the Banking Sector Shrinking? Core Deposits and Relationship Lending SO JOURNAL OF FINANCE LA English DT Meeting Abstract C1 [Berlin, Mitchell] Fed Reserve Bank Philadelphia, Res Dept, Philadelphia, PA 19106 USA. EM mberlin@frbphil.org NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU WILEY-BLACKWELL PI HOBOKEN PA 111 RIVER ST, HOBOKEN 07030-5774, NJ USA SN 0022-1082 EI 1540-6261 J9 J FINANC JI J. Financ. PD JUL PY 1997 VL 52 IS 3 BP 1210 EP 1211 PG 2 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA V46KU UT WOS:000209883900018 ER PT J AU Eom, YH AF Eom, Young Ho TI An Efficient Generalized Method of Moments Estimation of Continuous-Time Asset Dynamics: Implications for the Term Structure of Interest Rates SO JOURNAL OF FINANCE LA English DT Meeting Abstract C1 [Eom, Young Ho] Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York, NY 10045 USA. EM youngho.eom@frbny.sprint.com NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU WILEY-BLACKWELL PI HOBOKEN PA 111 RIVER ST, HOBOKEN 07030-5774, NJ USA SN 0022-1082 EI 1540-6261 J9 J FINANC JI J. Financ. PD JUL PY 1997 VL 52 IS 3 BP 1223 EP 1223 PG 1 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA V46KU UT WOS:000209883900039 ER PT J AU Longhofer, SD AF Longhofer, SD TI Absolute priority rule violations, credit rationing, and efficiency SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION LA English DT Article DE credit rationing; absolute priority rule violations; debt financing; costly state verification; chapter 11 bankruptcy; chapter 13 bankruptcy ID CORPORATE REORGANIZATION; IMPERFECT INFORMATION; DEBT CONTRACTS; BANKRUPTCY; EQUILIBRIUM; MARKET; INCENTIVES; DEVIATIONS; POLICY; FIRMS AB Violations of the absolute priority rule (APR) are commonplace in private workouts, formal business reorganizations, and personal bankruptcies. While some theorists suggest they may arise endogenously, they are clearly magnified by the institutional structure of the bankruptcy code. This paper shows that APR violations exacerbate credit rationing problems by reducing the payment lenders receive in default states. Furthermore, APR violations make default more likely to occur, thereby making debt financing more costly. Together, these results support the view that APR violations create an impediment to efficient financial contracting. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: G33, G38, K20. (C) 1997 Academic Press. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Cleveland, Res Dept, Cleveland, OH 44101 USA. RP Longhofer, SD (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Cleveland, Res Dept, POB 6387, Cleveland, OH 44101 USA. NR 47 TC 7 Z9 7 U1 3 U2 5 PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC PI SAN DIEGO PA 525 B ST, STE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 USA SN 1042-9573 J9 J FINANC INTERMED JI J. Financ. Intermed. PD JUL PY 1997 VL 6 IS 3 BP 249 EP 267 DI 10.1006/jfin.1997.0220 PG 19 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA YT407 UT WOS:000071599800003 ER PT J AU Roberts, JM AF Roberts, JM TI Is inflation sticky? SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE New Keynesian Economics; price rigidity; inflation ID ECONOMIST FORECASTS; UNITED-STATES; EXPECTATIONS FORMATION; PRICE INERTIA; MENU COSTS; RATIONALITY; HOUSEHOLD; MODEL; WAGE; DISINFLATION AB New Keynesian sticky-price models predict that monetary policy can affect real variables. However, they also predict that inflation can be reduced without depressing output or employment. In fact, bringing down inflation is costly, presenting a challenge to the New Keynesian model. Two departures from the New Keynesian model predict costly disinflation. One assumes sticky inflation rather than sticky prices, while the other assumes less-than-perfectly rational expectations. Taking into account information from surveys of inflation expectations, I find the evidence suggests that inflation is not sticky and that inflation expectations are less than perfectly rational. RP Roberts, JM (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 33 TC 125 Z9 132 U1 1 U2 7 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD JUL PY 1997 VL 39 IS 2 BP 173 EP 196 DI 10.1016/S0304-3932(97)00017-2 PG 24 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA XJ856 UT WOS:A1997XJ85600002 ER PT J AU Uribe, M AF Uribe, M TI Exchange-rate-based inflation stabilization: The initial real effects of credible plans SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE inflation stabilization; fixed exchange rates ID OF-PAYMENTS CRISES; SMALL OPEN-ECONOMY; BUSINESS CYCLES; RATE MANAGEMENT; BALANCE; POLICIES; MODEL AB This paper studies the initial effects of exchange-rate-based stabilization programs within a dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy in which inflation acts as a tax on intermediate transactions and capital accumulation is subject to convex adjustment costs and gestation lags. The model replicates the typical pattern of slow inflation convergence, sustained real exchange rate appreciation, trade balance deterioration, and expansion in domestic spending followed by a deflationary slowdown, without resorting to sticky prices, imperfect credibility, or adaptive expectations. Calibrated Versions of the model are compared with the initial effects of the Argentine Convertibility Plan of April 1991. RP Uribe, M (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 26 TC 32 Z9 32 U1 2 U2 6 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD JUL PY 1997 VL 39 IS 2 BP 197 EP 221 DI 10.1016/S0304-3932(97)00018-4 PG 25 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA XJ856 UT WOS:A1997XJ85600003 ER PT J AU Lumpkin, SA OBrien, JM AF Lumpkin, SA OBrien, JM TI Thrift stock returns and portfolio interest rate sensitivity SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE thrift stock returns; interest rate risk; nominal contracting ID INTEREST-RATE RISK; UNANTICIPATED INFLATION; FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS; COMMERCIAL-BANKS; COMMON-STOCK; MARKET; VALUATION; FIRM AB In practice, the interest rate sensitivity of depository institution (DI) net worth is measured in terms of maturity mismatches arising from nominal contracts in their financial portfolios. Academic studies also frequently invoke nominal contracting to explain a positive covariation observed between DI stock returns and bond returns. For a sample of thrifts reporting detailed financial data (1984-1992), this study estimates monthly changes in their financial portfolio values due to changes in interest rates. These portfolio value changes are found to be unimportant in explaining the thrifts' stock returns and are unable to account for a positive covariation between the stock returns and bond market returns. Potential weaknesses in the tests seem inadequate to explain the results. Explanations other than nominal contracting may warrant more consideration in relating DIs' net worth to interest rate changes. C1 FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. NR 20 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 1 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD JUL PY 1997 VL 39 IS 2 BP 341 EP 357 DI 10.1016/S0304-3932(97)00016-0 PG 17 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA XJ856 UT WOS:A1997XJ85600009 ER PT J AU Jordan, JS AF Jordan, JS TI Insiders' assessments of the Stock Market's pricing of New England bank stocks SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION; DEBT CRISIS; INFORMATION; EFFICIENCY; PRICES AB The surge in bank failures in the late 1980s and early 1990s prompted many policy proposals in search of an improved regulatory and supervisory framework. One such reform urges the enhancement of market forces in the disciplining of banking institutions. This study assesses the effectiveness of one type of outside monitor, stock market participants, in identifying New England banks' exposure to the region's real estate market in the late 1980s and early 1990s. An examination of this issue is important for evaluating the potential role that private sector claim-holders can exercise in the monitoring and disciplining of banks. Were shareholder reactions to the troubled real estate market consistent with individual banks' exposures to this market, or was there evidence of bank share prices deviating from their fundamentals? The analysis relies on trading by bank managers, who are likely the best informed regarding the bank's risk exposure, to assess the market's accuracy in pricing bank stocks. By examining managerial trading around changes in the market's valuation of a bank, one can gain insight into the insiders' assessment of the market's pricing of their firms' shares. Trading activity by managers of surviving institutions suggests that the market had difficulty assessing a bank's exposure to the region's business cycle. The evidence supports the assertion that informational asymmetries are present in the banking industry. Given this environment, requiring bank managers to disclose more of their private information could improve the market's ability to discipline banks. RP Jordan, JS (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02210, USA. NR 25 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 2 U2 4 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD JUL-AUG PY 1997 BP 3 EP & PG 15 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA XR528 UT WOS:A1997XR52800001 ER PT J AU Fieleke, NS AF Fieleke, NS TI Popular myths about the world economy SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article AB Many of us ''know'' things that are not true, and we sometimes act, or urge our representatives to act, on our mistaken beliefs. This article examines three common myths, or misconceptions, about the international economy. The author points out that, as with most myths, these embody grains of truth, but if accepted without qualification they could lead to grievous policy errors. The author analyzes three common false assumptions: that global competition prevents inflation; that fair trade requires equal labor standards; and that small firms cannot profitably export. Global competition is a weak reed on which to rely for control of the overall price level, he finds. Far more important are U.S. monetary and exchange-rate policies, whose potency has been demonstrated many times over. He also argues that the failure to enforce certain core labor standards, such as a standard prohibiting forced labor, probably lowers a country's productivity rather than affording it an unfair competitive advantage. And the data on exporting show that relatively small as well as large firms can thrive while exporting. RP Fieleke, NS (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02210, USA. NR 4 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 2 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD JUL-AUG PY 1997 BP 17 EP & PG 11 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA XR528 UT WOS:A1997XR52800002 ER PT J AU Stavins, J AF Stavins, J TI A comparison of social costs and benefits of paper check presentment and ECP with truncation SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article AB Each year, about 60 billion checks are collected in the United States. While the shares of electronic payments methods such as the automated clearing house and credit and debit cards have been growing in recent years, the volume of checks has grown by more in absolute numbers during the last 20 years than all electronic payments methods combined. Partly because of their convenience, checks remain an extremely popular way to carry out transactions. Since it seems that checks will be around for the foreseeable future, it makes sense to try to improve the process of their collection. This article compares the social costs and benefits of electronic check presentment with truncation to those of paper check processing. Even though ECP with check truncation was found to raise the net social benefits by 2.39 cents per check, or around $1.4 billion per year, several obstacles may prevent the private market from reaching universal truncation in the near future. The obstacles include transition costs, network externalities, uneven distribution of savings, an interim period of dual check processing (paper and electronic), and uncertainty surrounding check or image retrieval by paying banks. Despite these obstacles, there are reasons that it might be socially desirable to encourage ECP (through pricing policies, for example). However, the results presented here are too preliminary to specify any exact policy recommendations. RP Stavins, J (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02210, USA. NR 18 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 0 U2 1 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD JUL-AUG PY 1997 BP 27 EP & PG 19 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA XR528 UT WOS:A1997XR52800003 ER PT J AU Fortune, P AF Fortune, P TI Mutual funds .1. Reshaping the American financial system SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID OCTOBER 1987; OPTIONS; FUTURES; MARKET; STOCKS AB Since the mid 1980s the mutual fund industry has enjoyed explosive growth in the number of funds, the types of funds available, and total assets under management. Much of this growth is the result of the increasing convenience offered to owners of long-term assets. Mutual funds offer portfolio diversification and financial research unavailable to the individual investor. They do this in an economical way through economies of scale, and they provide Liquidity not available to the owner of individual shares or debt instruments. It should come as no surprise that the proportion of equity and debt instruments held through mutual funds has risen relative to outright ownership. This article provides a broad overview of the mutual fund industry, examining the mutual fund concept, mutual fund regulation, and taxation. The author discusses the direct and indirect costs of holding mutual fund shares, and he examines the growth, liquidity, and redemption experiences of mutual funds. He also looks at the relationship of mutual funds to financial market performance. He finds that mutual funds have been remarkably resilient institutions. Even during the stresses of 1987, industry liquidity remained sufficient to allow share redemptions without threatening the security markets. RP Fortune, P (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02210, USA. NR 16 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 0 U2 2 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD JUL-AUG PY 1997 BP 45 EP & PG 29 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA XR528 UT WOS:A1997XR52800004 ER PT J AU Calem, PS AF Calem, PS TI Durable goods monopoly with limited choice of commitment strategy: When should the monopolist precommit? SO SOUTHERN ECONOMIC JOURNAL LA English DT Article RP Calem, PS (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 25 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 1 PU UNIV NORTH CAROLINA PI CHAPEL HILL PA SOUTHERN ECONOMIC JOURNAL, CHAPEL HILL, NC 27514 SN 0038-4038 J9 SOUTHERN ECON J JI South. Econ. J. PD JUL PY 1997 VL 64 IS 1 BP 104 EP 117 DI 10.2307/1061041 PG 14 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA XD860 UT WOS:A1997XD86000009 ER PT J AU Peek, J Rosengren, ES AF Peek, J Rosengren, ES TI Will legislated early intervention prevent the next banking crisis? SO SOUTHERN ECONOMIC JOURNAL LA English DT Article C1 FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02210. RP Peek, J (reprint author), BOSTON UNIV,CHESTNUT HILL,MA, USA. NR 12 TC 8 Z9 8 U1 0 U2 1 PU UNIV NORTH CAROLINA PI CHAPEL HILL PA SOUTHERN ECONOMIC JOURNAL, CHAPEL HILL, NC 27514 SN 0038-4038 J9 SOUTHERN ECON J JI South. Econ. J. PD JUL PY 1997 VL 64 IS 1 BP 268 EP 280 DI 10.2307/1061051 PG 13 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA XD860 UT WOS:A1997XD86000019 ER PT J AU Bertaut, CC Haliassos, M AF Bertaut, CC Haliassos, M TI Precautionary portfolio behavior from a life-cycle perspective SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS & CONTROL LA English DT Article DE precautionary saving; portfolio choice; stockholding; income risk; career uncertainty ID RISK-AVERSION; UNITED-STATES; UNCERTAINTY; CONSTRAINTS; CONSUMPTION; SAVINGS; INCOME; TAX AB The literature on household asset accumulation draws a sharp distinction between 'short-run' precautionary motives to buffer consumption from annual income shocks, and 'long-run' life-cycle considerations under income certainty. However, estimates of shock persistence imply considerable career uncertainty. We study long-run precautionary motives for life-cycle wealth accumulation and portfolios allowing for uncertain returns, incomes, and lifespan. We separate the effects of various factors on mean and median asset holdings, including education, risk aversion, household heterogeneity, bequests, impatience, variance and serial correlation of income shocks. Numerical solutions are compared with data from the 1992 Survey of Consumer Finances. C1 UNIV CYPRUS, DEPT ECON, CY-1678 NICOSIA, CYPRUS. FED RESERVE SYST, BOARD GOVERNORS, WASHINGTON, DC USA. IMOP, ATHENS, GREECE. NR 37 TC 43 Z9 43 U1 0 U2 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0165-1889 EI 1879-1743 J9 J ECON DYN CONTROL JI J. Econ. Dyn. Control PD JUN 29 PY 1997 VL 21 IS 8-9 BP 1511 EP 1542 DI 10.1016/S0165-1889(97)00060-2 PG 32 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA XK075 UT WOS:A1997XK07500011 ER PT J AU Christiano, LJ Eichenbaum, M Evans, CL AF Christiano, LJ Eichenbaum, M Evans, CL TI Sticky price and limited participation models of money: A comparison SO EUROPEAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT 19th Annual International Seminar on Microeconomics CY JUN 16-18, 1996 CL VIENNA, AUSTRIA SP European Econ Assoc, Natl Bur Econ Res DE monetary transmission; mechanism; prices; credit ID BUSINESS-CYCLE; MONOPOLISTIC COMPETITION; LIQUIDITY; FLUCTUATIONS; LABOR AB We provide new evidence that models of the monetary transmission mechanism should be consistent with at least the following facts. After a contractionary monetary policy shock, the aggregate price level responds very little, aggregate output falls, interest rates initially rise, real wages decline by a modest amount, and profits fall. We compare the ability of sticky price and limited participation models with frictionless labor markets to account for these facts. The key failing of the sticky price model lies in its counterfactual implications for profits. The limited participation model can account for all the above facts, but only if one is willing to assume a high labor supply elasticity (2 percent) and a high markup (40 percent). The shortcomings of both models reflect the absence of labor market frictions, such as wage contracts or factor hoarding, which dampen movements in the marginal cost of production after a monetary policy shock. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V. C1 NORTHWESTERN UNIV,EVANSTON,IL 60208. FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,CHICAGO,IL. FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55480. NBER,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. NR 36 TC 148 Z9 153 U1 3 U2 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0014-2921 J9 EUR ECON REV JI Eur. Econ. Rev. PD JUN PY 1997 VL 41 IS 6 BP 1201 EP 1249 DI 10.1016/S0014-2921(97)00071-8 PG 49 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA XF466 UT WOS:A1997XF46600008 ER PT J AU Gagnon, JE AF Gagnon, JE TI Predicting external imbalances for the United States and Japan SO INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING LA English DT Book Review RP Gagnon, JE (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 3 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0169-2070 J9 INT J FORECASTING JI Int. J. Forecast. PD JUN PY 1997 VL 13 IS 2 BP 300 EP 300 DI 10.1016/S0169-2070(97)00012-5 PG 1 WC Economics; Management SC Business & Economics GA XL400 UT WOS:A1997XL40000017 ER PT J AU Little, JS AF Little, JS TI The sources of economic growth - Nelson,RR SO ISSUES IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY LA English DT Book Review RP Little, JS (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02106, USA. NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU NATL ACAD SCIENCES PI WASHINGTON PA 2101 CONSTITUTION AVE NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20418 SN 0748-5492 J9 ISSUES SCI TECHNOL JI Issues Sci. Technol. PD SUM PY 1997 VL 13 IS 4 BP 82 EP & PG 4 WC Engineering, Multidisciplinary; Engineering, Industrial; Multidisciplinary Sciences; Social Issues SC Engineering; Science & Technology - Other Topics; Social Issues GA XK379 UT WOS:A1997XK37900039 ER PT J AU Berger, AN DeYoung, R AF Berger, AN DeYoung, R TI Problem loans and cost efficiency in commercial banks SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article DE commercial banks; cost efficiency; loan quality; Granger-causality ID SCALE AB This paper addresses a little examined intersection between the problem loan literature and the bank efficiency literature. We employ Granger-causality techniques to test four hypotheses regarding the relationships among loan quality, cost efficiency, and bank capital. The data suggest that problem loans precede reductions in measured cost efficiency; that measured cost efficiency precedes reductions in problem loans; and that reductions in capital at thinly capitalized banks precede increases in problem loans. Hence, cost efficiency may be an important indicator of future problem loans and problem banks. Our results are ambiguous concerning whether or not researchers should control for problem loans in efficiency estimation. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V. C1 OFF COMPTROLLER CURRENCY,WASHINGTON,DC 20219. FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. WHARTON FINANCIAL INST CTR,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19104. NR 29 TC 259 Z9 266 U1 6 U2 30 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD JUN PY 1997 VL 21 IS 6 BP 849 EP 870 DI 10.1016/S0378-4266(97)00003-4 PG 22 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA XH488 UT WOS:A1997XH48800006 ER PT J AU Wheelock, DC AF Wheelock, DC TI Dollars through the doors: A pre-1930 history of bank marketing in America - Germain,RN SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC HISTORY LA English DT Book Review RP Wheelock, DC (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK,ST LOUIS,MO 63102, USA. RI Wheelock, David/I-5757-2016 OI Wheelock, David/0000-0002-2702-8164 NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS PI NEW YORK PA 40 WEST 20TH STREET, NEW YORK, NY 10011-4211 SN 0022-0507 J9 J ECON HIST JI J. Econ. Hist. PD JUN PY 1997 VL 57 IS 2 BP 573 EP 574 PG 2 WC Economics; History; History Of Social Sciences SC Business & Economics; History; Social Sciences - Other Topics GA XC817 UT WOS:A1997XC81700087 ER PT J AU Benston, GJ Kaufman, GG AF Benston, GJ Kaufman, GG TI FDICIA after five years SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES LA English DT Article ID FEDERAL DEPOSIT INSURANCE C1 LOYOLA UNIV,CHICAGO,IL 60611. FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,CHICAGO,IL. RP Benston, GJ (reprint author), EMORY UNIV,ATLANTA,GA 30322, USA. NR 38 TC 46 Z9 47 U1 0 U2 3 PU AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY, STE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0895-3309 J9 J ECON PERSPECT JI J. Econ. Perspect. PD SUM PY 1997 VL 11 IS 3 BP 139 EP 158 PG 20 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA XU084 UT WOS:A1997XU08400009 ER PT J AU Hansen, LP Jagannathan, R AF Hansen, LP Jagannathan, R TI Assessing specification errors in stochastic discount factor models SO JOURNAL OF FINANCE LA English DT Article ID ASSET PRICING-MODELS; EMPIRICAL TESTS; ARBITRAGE; CONSUMPTION; MARKETS; SUBSTITUTION; PERSISTENCE; ESTIMATORS; VOLATILITY; VALUATION AB In this article we develop alternative ways to compare asset pricing models when it is understood that their implied stochastic discount factors do not price all portfolios correctly. Unlike comparisons based on chi(2) statistics associated with null hypotheses that models are correct, our measures of model performance do not reward variability of discount factor proxies. One of our measures is designed to exploit fully the implications of arbitrage-free pricing of derivative claims. We demonstrate empirically the usefulness of our methods in assessing some alternative stochastic factor models that have been proposed in asset pricing literature. C1 NATL BUR ECON RES, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02138 USA. FED RESERVE BANK, RES DEPT, MINNEAPOLIS, MN USA. RP UNIV CHICAGO, NATL OPIN RES CTR, CHICAGO, IL 60637 USA. NR 45 TC 201 Z9 203 U1 4 U2 14 PU WILEY-BLACKWELL PI HOBOKEN PA 111 RIVER ST, HOBOKEN 07030-5774, NJ USA SN 0022-1082 EI 1540-6261 J9 J FINANC JI J. Financ. PD JUN PY 1997 VL 52 IS 2 BP 557 EP 590 DI 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1997.tb04813.x PG 34 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA XA189 UT WOS:A1997XA18900005 ER PT J AU Bekaert, G Hodrick, RJ Marshall, DA AF Bekaert, G Hodrick, RJ Marshall, DA TI On biases in tests of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE interest rates; expectations hypothesis; small sample bias; vector autoregression; conditional heteroskedasticity ID CONSISTENT COVARIANCE-MATRIX; SAMPLE PROPERTIES; HETEROSKEDASTICITY; INFORMATION; MODELS; LONG; INFERENCE; RETURNS AB We document extreme bias and dispersion in the small-sample distributions of four standard regression-based tests of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates. The biases arise because of the extreme persistence in short interest rates. We derive approximate analytic expressions for the biases under a simple first-order autoregressive data generating process for the short rate. We then conduct Monte Carlo experiments based on a bias-adjusted first-order autoregressive process for the short rate and for a more realistic bias-adjusted VAR-GARCH model incorporating the short rate and three term spreads. Conducting inference with the small-sample distributions of test statistics rather than with their asymptotic distributions provides a more consistent rejection of the expectations hypothesis. Plausible sources of measurement error in short and long yields do not salvage the expectations hypothesis. C1 NATL BUR ECON RES,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02137. COLUMBIA UNIV,NEW YORK,NY 10027. FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,CHICAGO,IL 60604. RP Bekaert, G (reprint author), STANFORD UNIV,GRAD SCH BUSINESS,STANFORD,CA 94305, USA. NR 40 TC 99 Z9 102 U1 1 U2 7 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA LAUSANNE PI LAUSANNE PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE, SWITZERLAND SN 0304-405X J9 J FINANC ECON JI J. Financ. Econ. PD JUN PY 1997 VL 44 IS 3 BP 309 EP 348 DI 10.1016/S0304-405X(97)00007-X PG 40 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA XM329 UT WOS:A1997XM32900002 ER PT J AU Antzoulatos, AA AF Antzoulatos, AA TI On the excess sensitivity of consumption to information about income SO JOURNAL OF MACROECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID PERMANENT-INCOME; LIQUIDITY CONSTRAINTS; HYPOTHESIS; EXPECTATIONS; BEHAVIOR; SAVINGS AB When forward-looking individuals face binding borrowing constraints, consumption will exhibit excess sensitivity'' to lagged variables which are correlated. with income. However, the predictive capacity of such variables for consumption growth should. diminish when contemporaneous and future income terms are used as regressors. U.S. data confirm these expectations. But the data from three other industrial countries are not consistent with either borrowing constraints or other leading Permanent Income Hypothesis (PIH) variants. The evidence from all sample countries suggests that variables correlated with future income might be used to re-examine the inconclusive evidence for the PIH from household data. RP Antzoulatos, AA (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,NEW YORK,NY 10045, USA. NR 24 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 1 U2 4 PU LOUISIANA STATE UNIV PR PI BATON ROUGE PA BATON ROUGE, LA 70893 SN 0164-0704 J9 J MACROECON JI J. Macroecon. PD SUM PY 1997 VL 19 IS 3 BP 539 EP 553 DI 10.1016/S0164-0704(97)00028-1 PG 15 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA XK413 UT WOS:A1997XK41300007 ER PT J AU Goodfriend, M AF Goodfriend, M TI A framework for the analysis of moderate inflations SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Research Conference on Rules and Discretion in Monetary Policy CY MAR 15-16, 1995 CL GERZENSEE, SWITZERLAND SP Swiss Natl Bank, Univ Rochester, Studienzentrum Gerzensee DE optimal monetary policy; inflation; unemployment ID AGGREGATE DEMAND; MARGINAL COST; PRICE; COMPETITION; RIGIDITIES; REPUTATION; MARKET AB Optimal monetary policy is studied in a model with no contractual restrictions or physical costs of changing prices. Nevertheless, the price level is sticky in a range of mark-up indeterminacy, and inflation occurs only when employment presses against capacity. Under full information, the monetary authority can exploit price level stickiness to minimize the mark-up and keep employment at a constrained optimum without inflation, Under uncertainty, negative aggregate demand shocks produce real contractions and positive shocks raise the price level. The monetary authority can raise the likelihood that aggregate demand will maximize employment, hut at the cost of higher expected inflation. RP Goodfriend, M (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK RICHMOND,POB 27622,RICHMOND,VA 23261, USA. NR 24 TC 9 Z9 9 U1 2 U2 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD JUN PY 1997 VL 39 IS 1 BP 45 EP 65 DI 10.1016/S0304-3932(97)00003-2 PG 21 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA XF510 UT WOS:A1997XF51000004 ER PT J AU Cooley, TF Ohanian, LE AF Cooley, TF Ohanian, LE TI Postwar British economic growth and the legacy of Keynes SO JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY LA English DT Article ID POLICY; RATES; MODEL AB The policies used by Britain to finance World War II represented a dramatic departure from the policies used to finance earlier wars and were very different from the policies used by the United States during the war. Following Keynes's recommendations, Britain taxed capital income at a much higher rate than the United States during the war and for much of the postwar period. We analyze quantitatively the policies designed by Keynes using an endogenous growth model and the neoclassical growth model. We also evaluate the implications of tax-smoothing policies. We find that the welfare costs of Keynes's policies were very high relative to a tax-smoothing policy and argue that Britain's poor macroeconomic performance in the early postwar period is a consequence of the high tax rates levied on capital income. C1 UNIV PENN,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19104. UNIV MINNESOTA,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55455. FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55480. RP Cooley, TF (reprint author), UNIV ROCHESTER,601 ELMWOOD AVE,ROCHESTER,NY 14627, USA. NR 20 TC 17 Z9 18 U1 0 U2 4 PU UNIV CHICAGO PRESS PI CHICAGO PA 5720 S WOODLAWN AVE, CHICAGO, IL 60637 SN 0022-3808 J9 J POLIT ECON JI J. Polit. Econ. PD JUN PY 1997 VL 105 IS 3 BP 439 EP 472 DI 10.1086/262079 PG 34 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA XB838 UT WOS:A1997XB83800001 ER PT J AU Bencivenga, VR Smith, BD AF Bencivenga, VR Smith, BD TI Unemployment, migration, and growth SO JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY LA English DT Article ID ECONOMIC-DEVELOPMENT; MARKETS; MODEL AB Economic development is typically accompanied by migration from rural to urban employment. This migration is often associated with significant urban underemployment. Both factors are important in the development process. We consider a neoclassical growth model with rural-urban migration and urban underemployment, which arises from an adverse selection problem in labor markets. We demonstrate that rural-urban migration and underemployment can be a source of development traps and can give rise to a large set of periodic equilibria displaying undamped oscillation. Many such equilibria display long periods of uninterrupted growth, punctuated by brief but severe recessions. C1 FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55480. RP Bencivenga, VR (reprint author), UNIV TEXAS,AUSTIN,TX 78712, USA. NR 23 TC 31 Z9 34 U1 1 U2 11 PU UNIV CHICAGO PRESS PI CHICAGO PA 5720 S WOODLAWN AVE, CHICAGO, IL 60637 SN 0022-3808 J9 J POLIT ECON JI J. Polit. Econ. PD JUN PY 1997 VL 105 IS 3 BP 582 EP 608 DI 10.1086/262083 PG 27 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA XB838 UT WOS:A1997XB83800005 ER PT J AU Brewer, E Mondschean, TS Strahan, PE AF Brewer, E Mondschean, TS Strahan, PE TI The role of monitoring in reducing the moral hazard problem associated with government guarantees: Evidence from the life insurance industry SO JOURNAL OF RISK AND INSURANCE LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Risk Management in Insurance Firms CY MAY, 1996 CL WHARTON SCH AT UNIV PENN, PHILADELPHIA, PA SP Univ Penn, Wharton Sch, J Risk & Insurance HO WHARTON SCH AT UNIV PENN ID DEPOSIT INSURANCE; RISK; OWNERSHIP; POLICY; BANKING AB State guaranty funds provide partial protection to life insurance liability holders in the event of an insolvency, thus creating a potential moral hazard problem akin to the one associated with deposit insurance in the banking industry. Consistent with this theory, we find that risk taking by life insurers is higher in states with guaranty funds that are underwritten by taxpayers. In states where taxpayers pay for the costs of resolving insolvencies, life insurers hold portfolios with higher overall stock market risk and higher levels of risky assets. By contrast, in states where the guaranty funds are underwritten by the industry, overall risk is no higher than in states without these funds. C1 DEPAUL UNIV, CHICAGO, IL 60604 USA. FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK, NEW YORK, NY 10045 USA. RP Brewer, E (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO, CHICAGO, IL 60604 USA. NR 35 TC 14 Z9 14 U1 1 U2 5 PU WILEY-BLACKWELL PI HOBOKEN PA 111 RIVER ST, HOBOKEN 07030-5774, NJ USA SN 0022-4367 EI 1539-6975 J9 J RISK INSUR JI J. Risk Insur. PD JUN PY 1997 VL 64 IS 2 BP 301 EP 322 DI 10.2307/253732 PG 22 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA XM045 UT WOS:A1997XM04500005 ER PT J AU Kliesen, KL AF Kliesen, KL TI Frontiers of tax reform - Boskin,MJ SO NATIONAL TAX JOURNAL LA English DT Book Review RP Kliesen, KL (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK,ST LOUIS,MO 63102, USA. RI Kliesen, Kevin/I-5746-2016 OI Kliesen, Kevin/0000-0002-7166-6016 NR 4 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU NATL TAX ASSN PI COLUMBUS PA 5310 EAST MAIN ST, COLUMBUS, OH 43213 SN 0028-0283 J9 NATL TAX J JI Natl. Tax J. PD JUN PY 1997 VL 50 IS 2 BP 375 EP 379 PG 5 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA XF056 UT WOS:A1997XF05600013 ER PT J AU Higgins, M Williamson, JG AF Higgins, M Williamson, JG TI Age structure dynamics in Asia and dependence on foreign capital SO POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Conference on East and Southeast Asian Economic Change in the Long Run CY APR 11, 1996 CL HONOLULU, HI ID DEMOGRAPHIC-TRANSITION; SAVINGS; WORLD; RATES; FLOWS AB Rising fertility and declining mortality have had a profound impact on Asian savings, investment, and foreign capital dependency since Coale and Hoover wrote in 1958. This article argues that much of the impressive rise in Asian savings rates since the 1960s can be explained by the equally impressive decline in youth dependency burdens. Wherever the youth dependency burden has fallen dramatically, Asian countries have relinquished their reliance on foreign capital. Aging will not diminish Japan's capacity to export capital in the next century, but little of it will go to the rest of Asia; rather, the countries in the rest of Asia are expected to become net capital exporters. These conclusions emerge from a model that extends the conventional focus of the dependency rate literature on savings to investment and net capital flows. C1 HARVARD UNIV, DEPT ECON, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02138 USA. RP Higgins, M (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK, NEW YORK, NY 10045 USA. NR 56 TC 70 Z9 71 U1 1 U2 7 PU WILEY-BLACKWELL PI MALDEN PA COMMERCE PLACE, 350 MAIN ST, MALDEN 02148, MA USA SN 0098-7921 J9 POPUL DEV REV JI Popul. Dev. Rev. PD JUN PY 1997 VL 23 IS 2 BP 261 EP + DI 10.2307/2137546 PG 0 WC Demography; Sociology SC Demography; Sociology GA XM112 UT WOS:A1997XM11200002 ER PT J AU Tannenwald, R Cowan, J AF Tannenwald, R Cowan, J TI Fiscal capacity, fiscal need, and fiscal comfort among US states: New evidence SO PUBLIUS-THE JOURNAL OF FEDERALISM LA English DT Article AB During its lifetime, the U.S. Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations periodically published estimates of each state's relative fiscal capacity. This research note provides neo estimates updated to fiscal year 1994, the latest year for which all requisite underlying data are available. We find that dispersion in capacity narrowed from 1987 to 1994, largely because the capacities of California and the Northeast states, historically enjoying ample capacity, fell relative to the national average. We also find that these states generally experienced an increase in relative fiscal need, further narrowing interstate dispersion in fiscal comfort (capacity relative to need). We conclude with evidence suggesting that slates with low fiscal comfort generally prefer relatively low levels of state and local public services. C1 Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. Harvard Univ, Sch Business, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. Harvard Univ, John F Kennedy Sch Govt, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. RP Tannenwald, R (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. NR 3 TC 6 Z9 6 U1 0 U2 0 PU PUBLIUS-JNL OF FEDERALISM PI EASTON PA MEYNER CTR STATE/LOCAL GOVT 16 KIRBY HALL CIV RIGHTS LAFAYETTE COLLEGE, EASTON, PA 18042-1785 USA SN 0048-5950 J9 PUBLIUS J FEDERALISM JI Publius-J. Fed. PD SUM PY 1997 VL 27 IS 3 BP 113 EP 125 PG 13 WC Political Science SC Government & Law GA ZP067 UT WOS:000073713200007 ER PT J AU Engen, EM Gale, WG AF Engen, EM Gale, WG TI Consumption taxes and saving: The role of uncertainty in tax reform SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT 109th Meeting of the American-Economic-Association CY JAN 04-06, 1997 CL NEW ORLEANS, LA SP Amer Econ Assoc ID EFFICIENCY; TAXATION; MODEL C1 BROOKINGS INST,WASHINGTON,DC 20036. RP Engen, EM (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 16 TC 5 Z9 5 U1 0 U2 3 PU AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY, STE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD MAY PY 1997 VL 87 IS 2 BP 114 EP 119 PG 6 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA XB091 UT WOS:A1997XB09100025 ER PT J AU Eichenbaum, M AF Eichenbaum, M TI Some thoughts on practical stabilization policy SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT 109th Meeting of the American-Economic-Association CY JAN 04-06, 1997 CL NEW ORLEANS, LA SP Amer Econ Assoc C1 NBER,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,CHICAGO,IL. RP Eichenbaum, M (reprint author), NORTHWESTERN UNIV,DEPT ECON,EVANSTON,IL 60208, USA. NR 6 TC 20 Z9 20 U1 0 U2 3 PU AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY, STE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD MAY PY 1997 VL 87 IS 2 BP 236 EP 239 PG 4 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA XB091 UT WOS:A1997XB09100052 ER PT J AU Barkema, A Drabenstott, M AF Barkema, A Drabenstott, M TI Will foreign capital build food systems in developing countries? SO AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT ASSA Winter Meeting CY JAN 04-06, 1997 CL NEW ORLEANS, LA SP ASSA C1 FED RESERVE BANK,KANSAS CITY,MO 64198. RP Barkema, A (reprint author), OKLAHOMA STATE UNIV,DEPT AGR ECON,STILLWATER,OK 74078, USA. NR 6 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 2 PU AMER AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS ASSOC PI AMES PA 1110 BUCKEYE AVE, AMES, IA 50010-8063 SN 0002-9092 J9 AM J AGR ECON JI Am. J. Agr. Econ. PD MAY PY 1997 VL 79 IS 2 BP 613 EP 620 DI 10.2307/1244160 PG 8 WC Agricultural Economics & Policy; Economics SC Agriculture; Business & Economics GA YG259 UT WOS:A1997YG25900031 ER PT J AU Goswami, G Noe, T Rebello, M AF Goswami, G Noe, T Rebello, M TI Cash flows and debt maturity SO ECONOMICA LA English DT Article ID ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION; CHOICE; RISK AB In an asymmetric information framework, a number of authors have demonstrated the existence and uniqueness of short-term debt pooling equilibria in the absence of dissipative costs. We show that short-term debt pooling is robust to a broad range of deviations from stationarity and intertemporal independence. However, with intertemporal dependence, separating equilibria exist in which short-term debt signals favourable information. Non-stationary allows for separating equilibria in which long-term debt signals favourable information. A range of deviations from stationarity and intertemporal independence also support long-term debt pooling equilibria. C1 GEORGIA STATE UNIV,ATLANTA,GA 30303. FED RESERVE BANK ATLANTA,ATLANTA,GA. RP Goswami, G (reprint author), FORDHAM UNIV,BRONX,NY 10458, USA. NR 9 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 2 U2 3 PU ECONOMICA PUBL OFFICE PI LONDON PA LONDON SCH OF ECON & POLIT SCI HOUGHTON ST, LONDON, ENGLAND WC2A 2AE SN 0013-0427 J9 ECONOMICA JI Economica PD MAY PY 1997 VL 64 IS 254 BP 303 EP 316 DI 10.1111/1468-0335.00079 PG 14 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA XD458 UT WOS:A1997XD45800007 ER PT J AU McGrattan, ER Rogerson, R Wright, R AF McGrattan, ER Rogerson, R Wright, R TI An equilibrium model of the business cycle with household production and fiscal policy SO INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID AGGREGATE FLUCTUATIONS; TIME; ALLOCATION; BUILD; LABOR AB We estimate a dynamic general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy that includes an explicit household production sector and stochastic fiscal variables. We use our estimates to investigate two issues. First, we analyze how well the model accounts for aggregate fluctuations. We find that household production has a significant impact and reject a nested specification in which changes in the home production technology do not matter for market variables. Second, we study the effects of some simple fiscal policy experiments and show that the model generates different predictions for the effects of tax changes than similar models without home production. C1 UNIV MINNESOTA,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55455. UNIV PENN,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19104. RP McGrattan, ER (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55480, USA. NR 26 TC 106 Z9 106 U1 1 U2 3 PU UNIV PENN PI PHILADELPHIA PA DEPT ECON MCNEIL BLDG CR, PHILADELPHIA, PA 19174 SN 0020-6598 J9 INT ECON REV JI Int. Econ. Rev. PD MAY PY 1997 VL 38 IS 2 BP 267 EP 290 DI 10.2307/2527375 PG 24 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA XD228 UT WOS:A1997XD22800001 ER PT J AU Bhattacharya, J Guzman, MG Huybens, E Smith, BD AF Bhattacharya, J Guzman, MG Huybens, E Smith, BD TI Monetary, fiscal, and reserve requirement policy in a simple monetary growth model SO INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID FINANCIAL REPRESSION; INFLATION AB We consider an otherwise conventional monetary growth model in which spatial separation and limited communication create a transactions role for currency, and stochastic relocation gives rise to financial intermediaries. In this framework we consider how changes in fiscal and monetary policy, and in reserve requirements, affect inflation, capital formation, and nominal interest rates. There is also considerable scope for multiple equilibria; we show how reserve requirements that never bind along actual equilibrium paths can play an important role in avoiding undesirable equilibria. Finally, we demonstrate that changes in (apparently) nonbinding reserve requirements can have significant, real effects. C1 UNIV TEXAS,AUSTIN,TX 78712. FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55480. RP Bhattacharya, J (reprint author), CORNELL UNIV,ITHACA,NY 14853, USA. OI Bhattacharya, Joydeep/0000-0002-3148-4592 NR 32 TC 15 Z9 15 U1 0 U2 4 PU UNIV PENN PI PHILADELPHIA PA DEPT ECON MCNEIL BLDG CR, PHILADELPHIA, PA 19174 SN 0020-6598 J9 INT ECON REV JI Int. Econ. Rev. PD MAY PY 1997 VL 38 IS 2 BP 321 EP 350 DI 10.2307/2527377 PG 30 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA XD228 UT WOS:A1997XD22800003 ER PT J AU Aiyagari, SR Wallace, N AF Aiyagari, SR Wallace, N TI Government: Transaction policy, the medium of exchange, and welfare SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY LA English DT Article AB Policy regarding what the government accepts in transactions is embedded in a version of the Kiyotaki-Wright model of media of exchange. In an example with two goods and one fiat money, the policies that are consistent with fiat money as the unique medium of exchange are identified. These policies have the government favoring fiat money in its transactions. A benefit and a cost accompany any such policy. The benefit is that a worse nonmonetary steady state is eliminated; the cost is that a better monetary steady state is eliminated. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Number: E40. (C) 1997 Academic Press. C1 FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,RES DEPT,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55480. UNIV MIAMI,DEPT ECON,CORAL GABLES,FL 33124. RP Aiyagari, SR (reprint author), UNIV ROCHESTER,DEPT ECON,HARKNESS HALL,ROCHESTER,NY 14627, USA. NR 4 TC 23 Z9 23 U1 0 U2 4 PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC JNL-COMP SUBSCRIPTIONS PI SAN DIEGO PA 525 B ST, STE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 SN 0022-0531 J9 J ECON THEORY JI J. Econ. Theory PD MAY PY 1997 VL 74 IS 1 BP 1 EP 18 DI 10.1006/jeth.1996.2250 PG 18 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA XB485 UT WOS:A1997XB48500001 ER PT J AU Cole, HL Prescott, EC AF Cole, HL Prescott, EC TI Valuation equilibrium with clubs SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY LA English DT Article AB This paper considers model worlds in which there is a continuum of individuals who form finite-sized associations to undertake joint activities. We show how, through a suitable choice of commodity space, restrictions on the composition of feasible groups can be incorporated into the specification of the consumption and production sets of the economy. We also show that if there are a finite number of types, then the classical results From the competitive analysis of convex finite-agent economies can be reinterpreted to apply. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: D51, H41. (C) 1997 Academic Press. C1 UNIV MINNESOTA,DEPT ECON,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55455. FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,RES DEPT,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55401. RP Cole, HL (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,RES DEPT,250 MARQUETTE AVE,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55401, USA. NR 16 TC 38 Z9 38 U1 3 U2 4 PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC JNL-COMP SUBSCRIPTIONS PI SAN DIEGO PA 525 B ST, STE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 SN 0022-0531 J9 J ECON THEORY JI J. Econ. Theory PD MAY PY 1997 VL 74 IS 1 BP 19 EP 39 DI 10.1006/jeth.1996.2247 PG 21 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA XB485 UT WOS:A1997XB48500002 ER PT J AU Bartolini, L Drazen, A AF Bartolini, L Drazen, A TI When liberal policies reflect external shocks, what do we learn? SO JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE capital flows; liberalization; signaling ID CAPITAL CONTROLS; REPUTATION AB We present a model where policies of free capital mobility can signal governments' future policies, but the informativeness of the signal depends on the path of world interest rates. Capital flows to emerging markets reflect investors' perception of these markets' political risk. With low world interest rates, emerging markets experience a capital inflow and engage in a widespread policy of free capital mobility; with higher rates, only sufficiently committed countries allow free capital mobility, whereas others impose controls to trap capital onshore, thus signaling future policies affecting capital mobility. These predictions are consistent with the recent experience of capital flows and policies affecting capital mobility in developing countries. C1 UNIV MARYLAND,CTR INT ECON,COLLEGE PK,MD 20742. NBER,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. RP Bartolini, L (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,RES DEPT,33 LIBERTY ST,NEW YORK,NY 10045, USA. NR 18 TC 18 Z9 18 U1 2 U2 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0022-1996 J9 J INT ECON JI J. Int. Econ. PD MAY PY 1997 VL 42 IS 3-4 BP 249 EP 273 DI 10.1016/S0022-1996(96)01468-7 PG 25 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA XE737 UT WOS:A1997XE73700001 ER PT J AU Goldberg, L Tenorio, R AF Goldberg, L Tenorio, R TI Strategic trading in a two-sided foreign exchange auction SO JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE foreign exchange; microstructure; auction; tatonnement; Russia ID MARKETS AB The market microstructure chosen for foreign exchange markets can influence trading volumes and equilibrium exchange rates. With emerging markets and developing countries increasingly utilizing two-sided auctions, we show that the choice of the discrete 'tatonnement' auction creates incentives for strategic behavior among market participants. Theoretical predictions on strategic under-revelation of demand or supply positions are supported empirically using detailed data from a rare example of a tatonnement market, the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange. Our results suggest that market microstructures should be introduced alongside more traditional asset-market fundamentals in studies of foreign exchange market activity, especially in developing countries. C1 NBER,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. UNIV NOTRE DAME,COLL BUSINESS ADM,NOTRE DAME,IN 46556. RP Goldberg, L (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,RES DEPT,33 LIBERTY ST,NEW YORK,NY 10045, USA. NR 30 TC 9 Z9 9 U1 0 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0022-1996 J9 J INT ECON JI J. Int. Econ. PD MAY PY 1997 VL 42 IS 3-4 BP 299 EP 326 DI 10.1016/S0022-1996(96)01447-X PG 28 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA XE737 UT WOS:A1997XE73700003 ER PT J AU Goldberg, LS Karimov, I AF Goldberg, LS Karimov, I TI Black markets for currency, hoarding activity and policy reforms SO JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE black markets; exchange rate; hoarding; overshooting; emerging markets; transition ID FOREIGN-EXCHANGE MARKETS; DEVELOPING-COUNTRIES; RATE DYNAMICS; INCONVERTIBILITY; INFLATION; ECONOMY AB In emerging market economies, under-development of financial markets leads to goods hoarding and foreign currency accumulation as forms of investment. In this paper an asset market model, supplemented by explicit treatment of smuggling and second-economy activity, is used to study the paths of black-market exchange rates, second-economy prices, hoarding stocks, and privately held dollar balances following policy reforms. We discuss conditions for overshooting and related dynamics of exchange rates and prices following: official exchange-rate adjustments, price reforms, and altered risks of monetary confiscation or currency reforms. The saddlepath trajectory of financial adjustment is simulated using data from recent Russian experience. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V. C1 NBER,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. INT INST APPL SYST ANAL,LAXENBURG,AUSTRIA. RP Goldberg, LS (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,NEW YORK,NY 10045, USA. NR 25 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 0 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0022-1996 J9 J INT ECON JI J. Int. Econ. PD MAY PY 1997 VL 42 IS 3-4 BP 349 EP 369 DI 10.1016/S0022-1996(96)01454-7 PG 21 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA XE737 UT WOS:A1997XE73700005 ER PT J AU Goldberg, LS AF Goldberg, LS TI Russian economic reform at risk - Aslund,A SO JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Book Review C1 NBER,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. RP Goldberg, LS (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,NEW YORK,NY 10045, USA. NR 4 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0022-1996 J9 J INT ECON JI J. Int. Econ. PD MAY PY 1997 VL 42 IS 3-4 BP 510 EP 515 PG 6 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA XE737 UT WOS:A1997XE73700013 ER PT J AU Raymond, JE Rich, RW AF Raymond, JE Rich, RW TI Oil and the macroeconomy: A Markov state-switching approach SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID BUSINESS-CYCLE; GNP; UNEMPLOYMENT; PRICES; PHASES; MODELS AB This paper analyzes the relationship between oil price shocks and postwar U.S. business cycle fluctuations. We develop a generalized Markov switching model of output that includes a measure of net real oil price increases and examine the capabilities of this variable to generate shifts in the mean of GDP growth and to predict transitions between dichotomous growth phases. The results indicate that while the behavior of oil prices has been a contributing factor to the mean of low-growth phases of output, movements in oil prices generally have not been a principal determinant in the historical incidence of these phases. C1 FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,RES DEPT,NEW YORK,NY 10045. RP Raymond, JE (reprint author), AUBURN UNIV,AUBURN,AL 36849, USA. NR 42 TC 49 Z9 49 U1 0 U2 4 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD MAY PY 1997 VL 29 IS 2 BP 193 EP 213 DI 10.2307/2953675 PG 21 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA WY096 UT WOS:A1997WY09600004 ER PT J AU Fuhrer, JC AF Fuhrer, JC TI Inflation/output variance trade-offs and optimal monetary policy SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID MODEL AB I estimate the inflation/output-gap variance trade-off faced by monetary policy makers in the United States. For policy makers who fare about the deviations of inflation around target and output around potential. the estimated trade-off represents the ''optimal policy frontier. Given the structure of the economy, policy makers can do no better than to attain weighted variances of inflation and output that lie on the frontier. I find that the variance trade-off becomes quite severe when the standard deviation of inflation or output drops much below 2 percent. This suggests that approximately balanced responses to policy goals are consistent with reasonable preferences over inflation and output variability. RP Fuhrer, JC (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02210, USA. RI Fuhrer, Jeff/F-8852-2013 NR 13 TC 55 Z9 55 U1 0 U2 2 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD MAY PY 1997 VL 29 IS 2 BP 214 EP 234 DI 10.2307/2953676 PG 21 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA WY096 UT WOS:A1997WY09600005 ER PT J AU Kocherlakota, NR Yi, KM AF Kocherlakota, NR Yi, KM TI Is there endogenous long-run growth? Evidence from the United States and the United Kingdom SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID DISTRIBUTED LAG ESTIMATION; ECONOMIC-GROWTH; CROSS-SECTION; FISCAL-POLICY; RATES; INFRASTRUCTURE; EQUILIBRIUM; INVESTMENT; MODEL AB The key feature of endogenous growth models is that they imply that permanent changes in government policy can have permanent effects on growth rates. In this paper we develop and implement an empirical Framework to test this implication. In a regression of growth rates on current and lagged policy variables the sum of the slope coefficients for each policy variable should be nonzero (zero) for endogenous (exogenous) growth models. In our estimation we use time series data spanning up to 100 years for the United States and 160 years for the United Kingdom. We find that the implication for exogenous growth is usually rejected when both a tax variable and a public capital variable are included in the regression; failing to include both variables biases the results in favor of exogenous growth models. Our findings show that it is possible to have endogenous growth even when U.S. and U.K. GDP growth rates appear to be stable over time. We conclude that at the aggregate level, the production function appears to exhibit constant returns to scale in reproducible inputs. C1 RICE UNIV,HOUSTON,TX 77251. FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,NEW YORK,NY 10045. RP Kocherlakota, NR (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,RES DEPT,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55480, USA. NR 60 TC 54 Z9 55 U1 0 U2 3 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD MAY PY 1997 VL 29 IS 2 BP 235 EP 262 DI 10.2307/2953677 PG 28 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA WY096 UT WOS:A1997WY09600006 ER PT J AU Tannenwald, R OLeary, CJ AF Tannenwald, R OLeary, CJ TI Unemployment insurance policy in New England: Background and issues SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article AB Almost two-thirds of the states, and all the New England states except New Hampshire, have exhausted their unemployment insurance trust fund and borrowed from the federal government at least once during the past 35 years. Under such circumstances, states are required by law to raise unemployment insurance taxes in order to replenish their trust funds and to pay off their debts to the federal government. Since higher unemployment insurance taxes increase employer costs, replenishment forces states into a trade-off between economic competitiveness and trust fund adequacy. In recent years, intensifying competitive pressures have caused many policy-makers to question prevailing standards of adequacy and the speed at which they should be attained. Consequently, several states, including some still in the process of rebuilding reserves depleted by the last recession, are contemplating tax reductions. This article provides background information and analysis intended to clarify issues underlying the unemployment insurance policies of New England in general and a tax reduction under consideration in Massachusetts in particular. The author's main point is that alternative unemployment insurance policies should not be judged solely by the yardsticks of economic competitiveness and trust fund adequacy. Allocative neutrality and economic stabilization are also relevant concerns. C1 WE UPJOHN INST EMPLOYMENT RES,KALAMAZOO,MI. RP Tannenwald, R (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02210, USA. NR 12 TC 5 Z9 5 U1 0 U2 1 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD MAY-JUN PY 1997 BP 3 EP & PG 21 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA XD656 UT WOS:A1997XD65600001 ER PT J AU Kimball, RC AF Kimball, RC TI Innovations in performance measurement in banking SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article AB In banking over the past 10 years, management accountants have been instrumental in the creation of new management processes and performance systems. Their innovations have enabled banks to create internal capital markets, measure risks so as to facilitate their proper hedging and pricing, and create risk-based performance standards for lines of business. They have also made great progress in creating data bases and analytical tools to resolve strategic conflicts. This article discusses the evolution of commercial banks into semiautonomous lines of business and the managerial issues and challenges that this organizational change has created. It goes on to describe the development of funds transfer systems, the allocation of risk-based capital, and the creation of risk-adjusted hurdle rates. Unresolved issues in bank management are also reviewed, such as the problem of ''adding up'' in the allocation of capital, the valuation of customer relationships, and the creation of objective measures of credit risk. C1 FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02210. RP Kimball, RC (reprint author), BABSON COLL,FW OLIN GRAD SCH BUSINESS,BABSON PK,MA 02157, USA. NR 14 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 0 U2 3 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD MAY-JUN PY 1997 BP 23 EP & PG 17 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA XD656 UT WOS:A1997XD65600002 ER PT J AU Kodrzycki, YK AF Kodrzycki, YK TI Training programs for displaced workers: What do they accomplish? SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article AB A consensus appears to be building that the extensive structural changes taking place in the U.S. economy warrant the expansion of government programs to assist displaced workers. Training in particular is seen as a vital part of the adjustment process. Although the ''problem'' is real, findings regarding the appropriate solution are murky. Research on existing training programs fails to show that they enable workers to achieve higher pay at their new jobs. Less expensive government interventions such as assistance in identifying and applying for job openings may be just as effective as training. This article provides further analysis of the effects of training programs for displaced workers. It offers evidence on which types of workers are likely to train, and on whether trainees make bigger or better job changes than non-trainees, using information on a large number of displaced workers from Massachusetts who sought government-provided reemployment assistance in the early 1990s. The author points out some limitations of previous research with respect to evaluating how training programs affect reemployment pay. She argues that occupational changes by displaced workers may lead to some long-term benefits not captured in the studies to date, and that these occupational changes may be more pronounced for workers who have gone through training programs. RP Kodrzycki, YK (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02210, USA. NR 11 TC 9 Z9 9 U1 1 U2 2 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD MAY-JUN PY 1997 BP 39 EP & PG 22 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA XD656 UT WOS:A1997XD65600003 ER PT J AU Hendricks, D Patel, J Zeckhauser, R AF Hendricks, D Patel, J Zeckhauser, R TI The J-shape of performance persistence given survivorship bias SO REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS LA English DT Article ID SELECTION AB Performance may enhance survival probability. When it does, the induced lack of randomness challenges robust and unbiased inference. If survivors are sorted into two groups based on past performance, spurious persistence has been demonstrated if variance in performance is heterogeneous. However, as we show both theoretically and with simulations, if performance is categorized finely, the spurious persistence will be J-shaped; that is, at the bottom better performance in one period ''predicts'' worse performance for another period. We propose a simple t-test applied to the quadratic coefficient in a regression to distinguish between a spurious J-shape and monotonic patterns. Mutual funds, our example, exhibit the monotonically increasing pattern produced by true performance persistence. C1 BOSTON UNIV,BOSTON,MA 02215. HARVARD UNIV,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. NBER,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. RP Hendricks, D (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,NEW YORK,NY 10045, USA. NR 11 TC 17 Z9 17 U1 1 U2 5 PU M I T PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA FIVE CAMBRIDGE CENTER, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 SN 0034-6535 J9 REV ECON STAT JI Rev. Econ. Stat. PD MAY PY 1997 VL 79 IS 2 BP 161 EP 166 DI 10.1162/003465397556575 PG 6 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA XB010 UT WOS:A1997XB01000001 ER PT J AU Adams, ES Runkle, DE AF Adams, ES Runkle, DE TI Solving a profound flaw in fraud-on-the-market theory: Utilizing a derivative of arbitrage pricing theory to measure Rule 10b-5 damages SO UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA LAW REVIEW LA English DT Article ID EFFICIENT MARKETS; CAPITAL-MARKETS; STOCK RETURNS; EQUILIBRIUM; ECONOMICS; FINANCE; MODELS; APT C1 FREDRIKSON & BYRON PA,MINNEAPOLIS,MN. JON ADAMS FINANCIAL CO LLP,WAYZATA,MN. FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55480. RP Adams, ES (reprint author), UNIV MINNESOTA,SCH LAW,CTR LAW & BUSINESS STUDIES,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55455, USA. NR 76 TC 5 Z9 5 U1 1 U2 1 PU UNIV PENN LAW SCH PI PHILADELPHIA PA 3400 CHESTNUT ST, PHILADELPHIA, PA 19104-6204 SN 0041-9907 J9 U PENN LAW REV JI Univ. Pa. Law Rev. PD MAY PY 1997 VL 145 IS 5 BP 1097 EP 1145 DI 10.2307/3312664 PG 49 WC Law SC Government & Law GA XM117 UT WOS:A1997XM11700001 ER PT J AU Berger, AN Humphrey, DB AF Berger, AN Humphrey, DB TI Efficiency of financial institutions: International survey and directions for future research SO EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH LA English DT Review ID DATA ENVELOPMENT ANALYSIS; BRANCH OPERATING EFFICIENCY; MEASURING COST EFFICIENCY; COMMERCIAL-BANKS; NONPARAMETRIC APPROACH; TECHNICAL EFFICIENCY; FRONTIER APPROACH; SCALE EFFICIENCY; INSURANCE INDUSTRY; LIFE-INSURANCE AB This paper surveys 130 studies that apply frontier efficiency analysis to financial institutions in 21 countries. The primary goals are to summarize and critically review empirical estimates of financial institution efficiency and to attempt to arrive at a consensus view. We find that the various efficiency methods do not necessarily yield consistent results and suggest some ways that these methods might be improved to bring about findings that are more consistent, accurate, and useful. Secondary goals are to address the implications of efficiency results for financial institutions in the areas of government policy, research, and managerial performance. Areas needing additional research are also outlined. C1 UNIV PENN,WHARTON FINANCIAL INST CTR,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19104. FLORIDA STATE UNIV,DEPT FINANCE,TALLAHASSEE,FL 32306. RP Berger, AN (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 176 TC 741 Z9 771 U1 15 U2 93 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0377-2217 J9 EUR J OPER RES JI Eur. J. Oper. Res. PD APR 16 PY 1997 VL 98 IS 2 BP 175 EP 212 DI 10.1016/S0377-2217(96)00342-6 PG 38 WC Management; Operations Research & Management Science SC Business & Economics; Operations Research & Management Science GA WY091 UT WOS:A1997WY09100003 ER PT J AU Mester, LJ AF Mester, LJ TI Measuring efficiency at US banks: Accounting for heterogeneity is important SO EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH LA English DT Article DE banking; cost efficiency AB Estimates of bank cost efficiency can be biased if bank heterogeneity is ignored, I compare X-inefficiency derived from a model constraining the cost frontier to be the same for all banks in the U.S. and a model allowing for different frontiers and error terms across Federal Reserve Districts. I find that the data reject the single cost function model; X-inefficiency measures based on the single cost function model are, on average, higher than those based on the separate cost functions model; the distributions of the one-sided error terms are wider for the single cost function model than for the separate cost functions model; and the ranking of Districts by the level of X-inefficiency differs in the two models, The results suggest it is important when studying X-inefficiency to account for differences across the markets in which banks are operating and that since X-inefficiency is, by construction, a residual, it will be particularly sensitive to omissions in the basic model. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V. C1 UNIV PENN,WHARTON SCH,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19104. RP Mester, LJ (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK PHILADELPHIA,RES DEPT,10 INDEPENDENCE MALL,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19106, USA. NR 16 TC 48 Z9 49 U1 1 U2 7 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0377-2217 J9 EUR J OPER RES JI Eur. J. Oper. Res. PD APR 16 PY 1997 VL 98 IS 2 BP 230 EP 242 DI 10.1016/S0377-2217(96)00344-X PG 13 WC Management; Operations Research & Management Science SC Business & Economics; Operations Research & Management Science GA WY091 UT WOS:A1997WY09100005 ER PT J AU Cornwell, C Rupert, P AF Cornwell, C Rupert, P TI Unobservable individual effects, marriage and the earnings of young men SO ECONOMIC INQUIRY LA English DT Article AB While there is compelling evidence that married men earn more than unmarried men, the source of this premium remains unsettled. Using panel data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Young Men, we show that much of the premium normally attributed to marriage is associated with unobservable individual effects that are correlated with marital status and wages. To the extent there is a gain, it is purely an intercept shift and no more than 5% to 7%. Our findings cast doubt on the interpretation that marriage enhances productivity through specialization. C1 FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,CLEVELAND,OH 44114. RP Cornwell, C (reprint author), UNIV GEORGIA,ATHENS,GA 30602, USA. NR 8 TC 46 Z9 46 U1 0 U2 2 PU WESTERN ECONOMIC ASSOC INT PI HUNTINGTON BEACH PA 7400 CENTER AVE SUITE 109, HUNTINGTON BEACH, CA 92647-3039 SN 0095-2583 J9 ECON INQ JI Econ. Inq. PD APR PY 1997 VL 35 IS 2 BP 285 EP 294 PG 10 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA WU828 UT WOS:A1997WU82800007 ER PT J AU Bartolini, L Prati, A Bertola, G Eichengreen, B AF Bartolini, L Prati, A Bertola, G Eichengreen, B TI Soft versus hard targets for exchange rate intervention SO ECONOMIC POLICY LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT 24th Meeting of the Economic-Policy-Panel CY OCT 11-12, 1996 CL LONDON, ENGLAND SP Ecib Policy Panel AB Exchange rate intervention by monetary authorities should defend a band not for the spot exchange rate, but for a moving average of its recent values. This target zone is soft, in that it allows greater short-run flexibility, but also rigorous: it still precludes any sustained easing of monetary policy. In comparison with conventional hard target zones for the spot exchange rate, we find considerable advantages for the rule we propose. In particular, without compromising long-run discipline, it increases resilience against speculative attacks, especially when shocks to exchange rate fundamentals are transitory. C1 INT MONETARY FUND,WASHINGTON,DC 20431. RP Bartolini, L (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,NEW YORK,NY 10045, USA. NR 35 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 1 PU BLACKWELL PUBL LTD PI OXFORD PA 108 COWLEY RD, OXFORD, OXON, ENGLAND OX4 1JF SN 0266-4658 J9 ECON POLICY JI Econ. Policy PD APR PY 1997 IS 24 BP 13 EP & PG 39 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA XK958 UT WOS:A1997XK95800001 ER PT J AU Edison, HJ AF Edison, Hali J. TI The Reaction of Exchange Rates and Interest Rates to News Releases SO INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FINANCE & ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE exchange rates; interest rates; announcement effects ID ECONOMIC-NEWS; ANNOUNCEMENTS; DOLLAR AB This paper examines the response of exchange rates and interest rates-US and foreign-to economic news. The news is associated with the surprise component of the monthly release of six US macroeconomic variables. The results suggest that dollar exchange rates systematically react to news about real economic activity-a surprise of 100 000 on non-farm payroll employment leads to a 0.2% appreciation of the exchange rate. In general, exchange rates do not react systematically to news on inflation. In contrast, US interest rates respond to both types of news, although the response continues to be extremely small, of the order of 1 to 2 basis points. Finally, Japanese interest rates systematically react, but to a very minor extent, to news about US real economic activity, while German rates, in general, do not. (C) 1997 by JohnWiley & Sons, Ltd. Int. J. Fin. Econ. 2, 87-100, 1997 C1 Board Governors Fed Reserve Syst, Div Int Finance, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Edison, HJ (reprint author), Board Governors Fed Reserve Syst, Div Int Finance, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 17 TC 12 Z9 12 U1 0 U2 1 PU WILEY-BLACKWELL PI MALDEN PA COMMERCE PLACE, 350 MAIN ST, MALDEN 02148, MA USA SN 1076-9307 J9 INT J FINANC ECON JI Int. J. Financ. Econ. PD APR PY 1997 VL 2 IS 2 BP 87 EP 100 PG 14 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA V17HX UT WOS:000207929400001 ER PT J AU Park, SK AF Park, SK TI Risk-taking behavior of banks under regulation SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article DE moral hazard; bank regulation; deposit insurance ID FEDERAL DEPOSIT INSURANCE; POLICY AB This paper analyzes the value maximization of regulated banks within a moral-hazard framework. In the model, regulators monitor both the capital ratio and the asset portfolio, and banks simultaneously select the optimum capital ratio and asset portfolio. A key assumption is that a bank cannot expect a positive put option value once it is classified as risky by regulators. The optimum values of the two variables depend on investment opportunities and charter values, as well as regulatory parameters. The model that explicitly incorporates regulation can explain various phenomena that are seemingly inconsistent with the predictions of moral hazard models - for example, a positive relationship between the capital ratio and the riskiness of the asset portfolio. A particularly interesting result is that a larger charter value results in a higher-risk interior solution. RP Park, SK (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,33 LIBERTY ST,NEW YORK,NY 10045, USA. NR 16 TC 12 Z9 13 U1 0 U2 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD APR PY 1997 VL 21 IS 4 BP 491 EP 507 DI 10.1016/S0378-4266(96)00050-7 PG 17 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA WV781 UT WOS:A1997WV78100003 ER PT J AU Boyd, JH Smith, BD AF Boyd, JH Smith, BD TI Capital market imperfections, international credit markets, and nonconvergence SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY LA English DT Article AB We consider a two country growth model with international capital markets. These markets fund capital investment in both countries, and operate subject to a costly state verification (CSV) problem. Investors in each country require some external finance, but also provide internal finance, which mitigates the CSV problem. When two identical (except for their initial capital stocks) economies are closed, they necessarily converge monotonically to the same steady state output level. Unrestricted international financial trade precludes otherwise identical economies from converging, and poor countries are necessarily net lenders to rich countries. Oscillation in real activity and international capital flows can occur. (C) 1997 Academic Press. C1 UNIV MINNESOTA,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55455. UNIV TEXAS,AUSTIN,TX 78712. RP Boyd, JH (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55480, USA. NR 32 TC 55 Z9 56 U1 0 U2 5 PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC JNL-COMP SUBSCRIPTIONS PI SAN DIEGO PA 525 B ST, STE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 SN 0022-0531 J9 J ECON THEORY JI J. Econ. Theory PD APR PY 1997 VL 73 IS 2 BP 335 EP 364 DI 10.1006/jeth.1996.2237 PG 30 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA WX174 UT WOS:A1997WX17400004 ER PT J AU Kiyotaki, N Moore, J AF Kiyotaki, N Moore, J TI Credit cycles SO JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY LA English DT Article ID LIQUIDITY CONSTRAINTS; BUSINESS CYCLES; NET WORTH; INVESTMENT; MARKET; DEBT; FLUCTUATIONS; CAPACITY; MODEL AB We construct a model of a dynamic economy in which lenders cannot force borrowers to repay their debts unless the debts are secured. In such an economy, durable assets play a dual role: not only are they factors of production, but they also serve as collateral for loans. The dynamic interaction between credit limits and asset prices turns out to be a powerful transmission mechanism by which the effects of shocks persist, amplify, and spill over to other sectors. We show that small, temporary shocks to technology or income distribution can generate large, persistent fluctuations in output and asset prices. C1 FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN. UNIV LONDON LONDON SCH ECON & POLIT SCI,LONDON WC2A 2AE,ENGLAND. HERIOT WATT UNIV,EDINBURGH EH14 4AS,MIDLOTHIAN,SCOTLAND. RP Kiyotaki, N (reprint author), UNIV MINNESOTA,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55455, USA. NR 34 TC 1141 Z9 1161 U1 9 U2 69 PU UNIV CHICAGO PRESS PI CHICAGO PA 5720 S WOODLAWN AVE, CHICAGO, IL 60637 SN 0022-3808 J9 J POLIT ECON JI J. Polit. Econ. PD APR PY 1997 VL 105 IS 2 BP 211 EP 248 DI 10.1086/262072 PG 38 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA WT042 UT WOS:A1997WT04200001 ER PT J AU Basu, S Fernald, JG AF Basu, S Fernald, JG TI Returns to scale in US production: Estimates and implications SO JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY LA English DT Article ID MARGINAL COST; INDUSTRY; PRICE AB A typical (roughly) two-digit industry in the United States appears to have constant or slightly decreasing returns to scale. Three puzzles emerge, however. First, estimates often rise at higher levels of aggregation. Second, apparent decreasing returns contradicts evidence of only small economic profits. Third, estimates with value added differ substantially from those with gross output. A representative-firm paradigm cannot explain these puzzles, but a simple story of aggregation over heterogeneous units can. Theory and evidence on aggregation invalidate the common use of demand-side instruments. Finally, we discuss implications of heterogeneity for macroeconomic modeling: A one-sector macroeconomic model that ignores heterogeneity may sometimes require firm-level parameters, but at other times the model may require the ''biased'' aggregate parameters. C1 NATL BUR ECON RES,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. RP Basu, S (reprint author), UNIV MICHIGAN,ANN ARBOR,MI 48109, USA. NR 34 TC 410 Z9 413 U1 0 U2 11 PU UNIV CHICAGO PRESS PI CHICAGO PA 5720 S WOODLAWN AVE, CHICAGO, IL 60637 SN 0022-3808 J9 J POLIT ECON JI J. Polit. Econ. PD APR PY 1997 VL 105 IS 2 BP 249 EP 283 DI 10.1086/262073 PG 35 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA WT042 UT WOS:A1997WT04200002 ER PT J AU Schindler, GR Israilevich, PR Hewings, GJD AF Schindler, GR Israilevich, PR Hewings, GJD TI Regional economic performance: An integrated approach SO REGIONAL STUDIES LA English DT Article DE multipliers; economic performance; regional growth; input-output analysis AB Decision makers who choose policy affecting future economic performance are often confronted with two types of information intended to aid the decision process. The first type of information, from input-output analysis, is usually presented in the form of industry multipliers aimed at measuring the economic impact of one sector relative to another and thus determining a ranking of industries. The second form of information is derived from time-series analysis and used to predict future economic performance. Here, forecasted growth rates of industrial output are compared, thus allowing another form of ranking. We propose that although this information is beneficial to the economic planner, it creates controversial and inconsistent rankings of industries. Instead, we present an integrated method of analysing economic performance which, through the use of a combined econometric input-output model, examines the interactions between industry multipliers and output growth rates over time. C1 FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,REG ECON APPLICAT LAB,CHICAGO,IL 60604. RP Schindler, GR (reprint author), UNIV ILLINOIS,REG ECON APPLICAT LAB,607 S MATHEWS,URBANA,IL 61801, USA. RI Hewings, Geoffrey/B-2058-2014 NR 12 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 0 U2 1 PU CARFAX PUBL CO PI ABINGDON PA PO BOX 25, ABINGDON, OXFORDSHIRE, ENGLAND OX14 3UE SN 0034-3404 J9 REG STUD JI Reg. Stud. PD APR PY 1997 VL 31 IS 2 BP 131 EP 137 PG 7 WC Economics; Environmental Studies; Geography SC Business & Economics; Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Geography GA WW829 UT WOS:A1997WW82900003 ER PT J AU Zhou, RL AF Zhou, RL TI Currency exchange in a random search model SO REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES LA English DT Article ID RATES; MONEY; PRICES AB This paper investigates foreign exchange trading, a phenomenon that typically accompanies international trade. A search-theoretic general equilibrium approach is adopted to study a two-country, two-currency model. For some parameter values of the model, there exist some pure-strategy equilibria in which commodity-currency trade is conducted primarily through local currency and in which there is active currency-currency exchange. The coexistence of valued foreign currency and its local non-acceptability conforms largely with the country-specific cash-in-advance constraint that is often assumed exogenously in international finance literature. C1 FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55480. RP Zhou, RL (reprint author), UNIV PENN,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19104, USA. NR 15 TC 26 Z9 26 U1 0 U2 3 PU REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES LTD PI OXFORD PA C/O BASIL BLACKWELL LTD, 108 COWLEY RD, PO BOX 805, OXFORD, OXON, ENGLAND OX4 1JF SN 0034-6527 J9 REV ECON STUD JI Rev. Econ. Stud. PD APR PY 1997 VL 64 IS 2 BP 289 EP 310 DI 10.2307/2971713 PG 22 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA WV854 UT WOS:A1997WV85400007 ER PT J AU Bartolini, L Drazen, A AF Bartolini, L Drazen, A TI Capital-account liberalization as a signal SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID POLITICAL RISK; GOVERNMENT; MODEL; DEBT AB We present a model in which a government's current capital-control policy signals future policies. Controls on capital outflows evolve in response to news on technology, conditional on government attitudes toward taxation of capital. When there is uncertainty over government types, a policy of liberal capital outflows sends a favorable signal that may trigger a capital inflow. This prediction is consistent with the experience of several countries that have liberalized their capital accounts. C1 UNIV MARYLAND,CTR INT ECON,COLLEGE PK,MD 20742. RP Bartolini, L (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,33 LIBERTY ST,NEW YORK,NY 10045, USA. NR 31 TC 71 Z9 74 U1 0 U2 4 PU AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY, STE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD MAR PY 1997 VL 87 IS 1 BP 138 EP 154 PG 17 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA WT134 UT WOS:A1997WT13400008 ER PT J AU Jack, W Sheiner, L AF Jack, W Sheiner, L TI Welfare-improving health expenditure subsidies SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID INSURANCE; TAXATION; DEMAND; COST; CARE C1 FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. RP Jack, W (reprint author), AUSTRALIAN NATL UNIV,CTR ECON POLICY RES,CANBERRA,ACT 0200,AUSTRALIA. NR 20 TC 22 Z9 22 U1 1 U2 5 PU AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY, STE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD MAR PY 1997 VL 87 IS 1 BP 206 EP 221 PG 16 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA WT134 UT WOS:A1997WT13400013 ER PT J AU Baxter, TC Heller, S Hennessy, JR AF Baxter, TC Heller, S Hennessy, JR TI Revised articles 3 and 4 of the UCC: Will New York say nix? SO BANKING LAW JOURNAL LA English DT Article AB Forty-eight jurisdictions have adopted the Revisions to Article 3 and 4 of the Uniform Commercial Code, but not New York which still retains the old law. Meanwhile, a debate goes on with respect to four areas: payment information loss allocation, post-dated checks, and check truncation. The authors explain why the opposition in New York is bad policy and is based on a misunderstanding of how Revised Articles 3 and 4 really work. RP Baxter, TC (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,NEW YORK,NY 10045, USA. NR 0 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 1 PU WARREN GORHAM LAMONT INC PI BOSTON PA 31 SAINT JAMES AVE 4TH FLOOR, BOSTON, MA 02116-4101 SN 0005-5506 J9 BANKING LAW J JI Bank. Law J. PD MAR PY 1997 VL 114 IS 3 BP 219 EP 234 PG 16 WC Business, Finance; Law SC Business & Economics; Government & Law GA WJ263 UT WOS:A1997WJ26300004 ER PT J AU Wheelock, DC AF Wheelock, DC TI Monetary interpretations of the great depression - Steindl,FG SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC LITERATURE LA English DT Book Review RP Wheelock, DC (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK ST LOUIS,ST LOUIS,MO 63102, USA. RI Wheelock, David/I-5757-2016 OI Wheelock, David/0000-0002-2702-8164 NR 3 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 1 PU AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY, STE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0022-0515 J9 J ECON LIT JI J. Econ. Lit. PD MAR PY 1997 VL 35 IS 1 BP 124 EP 125 PG 2 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA WQ615 UT WOS:A1997WQ61500011 ER PT J AU Bernanke, BS Mishkin, FS AF Bernanke, BS Mishkin, FS TI Inflation targeting: A new framework for monetary policy? SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES LA English DT Article C1 NATL BUR ECON RES, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02138 USA. FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK, NEW YORK, NY 10045 USA. RP Bernanke, BS (reprint author), PRINCETON UNIV, PRINCETON, NJ 08544 USA. NR 46 TC 187 Z9 195 U1 2 U2 18 PU AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY, STE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 USA SN 0895-3309 J9 J ECON PERSPECT JI J. Econ. Perspect. PD SPR PY 1997 VL 11 IS 2 BP 97 EP 116 PG 20 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA XA758 UT WOS:A1997XA75800006 ER PT J AU Segal, LM Sullivan, DG AF Segal, LM Sullivan, DG TI The growth of temporary services work SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES LA English DT Article ID WAGE STRUCTURE; INDUSTRY RP Segal, LM (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,CHICAGO,IL, USA. NR 39 TC 124 Z9 126 U1 1 U2 5 PU AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY, STE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0895-3309 J9 J ECON PERSPECT JI J. Econ. Perspect. PD SPR PY 1997 VL 11 IS 2 BP 117 EP 136 PG 20 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA XA758 UT WOS:A1997XA75800007 ER PT J AU Schreft, SL Smith, BD AF Schreft, SL Smith, BD TI Money, banking, and capital formation SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY LA English DT Article ID GROWTH AB We consider a monetary growth model in which banks arise to provide liquidity. In addition, there is a government that issues not only money, but interest-bearing bonds; these bonds compete with capital in private portfolios. When the government fixes a constant growth rate for the money stock, we show that there can exist multiple nontrivial monetary steady states. One of these steady states is a saddle, while the other can be a sink. Moreover, paths approaching a steady state can display damped endogenous fluctuations, and development trap phenomena are common. Across different steady states, low capital stocks are associated with high nominal interest rates; the latter signal the comparative inefficiency of the financial system. Also, increases in the steady state inflation rate can easily reduce the steady state capital stock. (C) 1997 Academic Press. C1 UNIV TEXAS,DEPT ECON,AUSTIN,TX 78712. FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,RES DEPT,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55480. RP Schreft, SL (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK,RES DEPT,KANSAS CITY,MO 64198, USA. NR 32 TC 44 Z9 44 U1 3 U2 6 PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC JNL-COMP SUBSCRIPTIONS PI SAN DIEGO PA 525 B ST, STE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 SN 0022-0531 J9 J ECON THEORY JI J. Econ. Theory PD MAR PY 1997 VL 73 IS 1 BP 157 EP 182 DI 10.1006/jeth.1996.2227 PG 26 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA WM644 UT WOS:A1997WM64400006 ER PT J AU Melick, WR Thomas, CP AF Melick, WR Thomas, CP TI Recovering an asset's implied PDF from option prices: An application to crude oil during the Gulf crisis SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL AND QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS LA English DT Article ID AMERICAN FUTURES OPTIONS; PROBABILITY ASSESSMENTS; STOCHASTIC-PROCESSES; EMPIRICAL TESTS; UPPER-BOUNDS; VALUATION; MARKETS AB We develop a general method for estimating the implied, martingale equivalent, probability density function (PDF) for futures prices from American options prices. The early exercise feature of American options precludes expressing the price of the option in terms of the PDF. There exist tight bounds for the price of American options in terms of the PDF. We demonstrate how these bounds, together with observed option prices, can be used to estimate the parameters of the PDF. We estimate the distribution for crude oil during the Persian Gulf crisis and find the distribution differs significantly from that recovered using standard techniques. RP Melick, WR (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,DIV INT FINANCE,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 34 TC 99 Z9 100 U1 4 U2 13 PU UNIV WASHINGTON PI SEATTLE PA GRAD SCH OF BUSINESS ADMIN, SEATTLE, WA 98105 SN 0022-1090 J9 J FINANC QUANT ANAL JI J. Financ. Quant. Anal. PD MAR PY 1997 VL 32 IS 1 BP 91 EP 115 DI 10.2307/2331318 PG 25 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA WV352 UT WOS:A1997WV35200005 ER PT J AU Akhavein, JD Swamy, PAVB Taubman, SB Singamsetti, RN AF Akhavein, JD Swamy, PAVB Taubman, SB Singamsetti, RN TI A general method of deriving the inefficiencies of banks from a profit function SO JOURNAL OF PRODUCTIVITY ANALYSIS LA English DT Article DE banks; profit function; Hotelling-like lemma; X-inefficiencies ID EFFICIENCY; MODELS AB This article develops a new method of estimating inefficiencies in joint production and shows that unlike the approaches utilized in the previous studies of inefficiency, this method maintains a consistent relationship between the error term of a profit function and the error terms of its price derivatives, A useful by-product of the method is a proof of a Hotelling-like lemma that relates stochastic input demand and output supply functions to stochastic profit functions, While the previous studies fit a single frontier to data on all firms, this paper estimates a frontier unique to every observed firm to allow each one to have a different potential of achieving maximal levels of profit. The new method is applied in the analysis of annual data, 1984-1989, for U.S. commercial banks, Both the analytical and numerical results of the paper show that the residual that the previous studies attribute to inefficiency includes the effects of excluded variables and of inaccuracies in the specified functional forms. Once accurate estimates of these effects are subtracted from the residual, the distortions in the measured inefficiencies should be considerably reduced, Consequently, this article considers how such estimates might be obtained. C1 OFF COMPTROLLER CURRENCY,WASHINGTON,DC 20219. UNIV HARTFORD,W HARTFORD,CT 06117. FED RESERVE BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. RP Akhavein, JD (reprint author), UNIV PENN,WHARTON FINANCIAL INST CTR,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19104, USA. NR 23 TC 16 Z9 16 U1 1 U2 3 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0895-562X J9 J PROD ANAL JI J. Prod. Anal. PD MAR PY 1997 VL 8 IS 1 BP 71 EP 93 DI 10.1023/A:1007776431663 PG 23 WC Business; Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA WV098 UT WOS:A1997WV09800005 ER PT J AU deBartolome, CAM Spiegel, MM AF deBartolome, CAM Spiegel, MM TI Does state economic development spending increase manufacturing employment? SO JOURNAL OF URBAN ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID UNITED-STATES; LOCAL-TAXES; GROWTH; LOCATION; JOBS AB Recent studies, which have attempted to determine what causes an industrial sector in a state to grow, have ignored the general role of the state's economic development agency. We extend the analysis to include its effect, and determine that economic development expenditure by the slate is significantly correlated with manufacturing growth in the state. Our result is robust to a variety of specification tests. (C) 1997 Academic Press. C1 FED RESERVE BANK SAN FRANCISCO,RES DEPT,SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94105. RP deBartolome, CAM (reprint author), UNIV COLORADO,DEPT ECON,CAMPUS BOX 256,BOULDER,CO 80309, USA. NR 13 TC 6 Z9 6 U1 0 U2 2 PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC JNL-COMP SUBSCRIPTIONS PI SAN DIEGO PA 525 B ST, STE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 SN 0094-1190 J9 J URBAN ECON JI J. Urban Econ. PD MAR PY 1997 VL 41 IS 2 BP 153 EP 175 DI 10.1006/juec.1996.1090 PG 23 WC Economics; Urban Studies SC Business & Economics; Urban Studies GA WN839 UT WOS:A1997WN83900001 ER PT J AU Voith, R AF Voith, R TI Fares, service levels, and demographics: What determines commuter rail ridership in the long run? SO JOURNAL OF URBAN ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID TRANSPORTATION; LOCATION; DEMAND AB Using panel data covering a 13-year period, this paper examines the roles of transportation policy and demographic changes in determining rail ridership. The paper presents a model which allows identification of long-run responses of ridership to changes in prices and service independently of exogenous shocks to ridership caused by demographic factors. Long-run price and service elasticities are estimated to be almost twice as large as short-run elasticities. After controlling for transportation prices and service levels, demographic variables contribute little to explaining residual differences in ridership. To the extent that demographic changes are driven by transportation variables, these effects are captured in the estimated long-run elasticities. (C) 1997 Academic Press. RP Voith, R (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK PHILADELPHIA,RES DEPT,10 INDEPENDENCE MALL,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19106, USA. NR 17 TC 11 Z9 11 U1 0 U2 1 PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC JNL-COMP SUBSCRIPTIONS PI SAN DIEGO PA 525 B ST, STE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 SN 0094-1190 J9 J URBAN ECON JI J. Urban Econ. PD MAR PY 1997 VL 41 IS 2 BP 176 EP 197 DI 10.1006/juec.1996.1092 PG 22 WC Economics; Urban Studies SC Business & Economics; Urban Studies GA WN839 UT WOS:A1997WN83900002 ER PT J AU Park, S AF Park, S TI The relationship between government financial condition and expected tax rates reflected in municipal bond yields SO NATIONAL TAX JOURNAL LA English DT Article ID MARKET; DEBT AB Yields on long-term municipal bonds reflect both current and expected future tax rates. This paper derives expected changes in tax rates from yields on short-term and long-term municipal bonds and examines the relationship between expected changes in tax rates and the financial condition of the federal government between 1965 and 1994. My main empirical result is that a positive relationship exists between the expected tax rate and federal debt Inflation also positively affects the expected tax rate, suggesting that investors may expect tight fiscal policies when inflation is high. Qualitative results are similar across specifications and estimators. RP Park, S (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,CAPITAL MARKETS FUNCT,NEW YORK,NY 10045, USA. NR 15 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 0 U2 2 PU NATL TAX ASSN PI COLUMBUS PA 5310 EAST MAIN ST, COLUMBUS, OH 43213 SN 0028-0283 J9 NATL TAX J JI Natl. Tax J. PD MAR PY 1997 VL 50 IS 1 BP 23 EP 38 PG 16 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA WP683 UT WOS:A1997WP68300002 ER PT J AU Bradbury, KL Kodrzycki, YK Tannenwald, R AF Bradbury, KL Kodrzycki, YK Tannenwald, R TI The effects of state and local public policies on economic development: An overview SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Editorial Material RP Bradbury, KL (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02210, USA. NR 0 TC 9 Z9 9 U1 2 U2 3 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD MAR-APR PY 1997 BP 1 EP 12 PG 12 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA WR894 UT WOS:A1997WR89400001 ER PT J AU Tannenwald, R AF Tannenwald, R TI State regulatory policy and economic development SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Symposium on the Effects of State and Local Public Policies on Economic Development CY NOV 08, 1996 CL BOSTON, MA ID TO-WORK LAWS; UNITED-STATES; ENVIRONMENTAL-REGULATION; INDUSTRIAL-LOCATION; TAX COMPETITION; START-UPS; GROWTH; WAGES; RENTS; MODEL AB What is the effect of various state regulations on economic development? Examples include regulations affecting workers' compensation, right-to-work laws, environmental protection, and financial institutions. What problems are inherent in measuring regulatory burden and how have investigators dealt with them? RP Tannenwald, R (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02210, USA. NR 114 TC 13 Z9 13 U1 2 U2 6 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD MAR-APR PY 1997 BP 83 EP & PG 18 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA WR894 UT WOS:A1997WR89400011 ER PT J AU Sundaramurthy, C Mahoney, JM Mahoney, JT AF Sundaramurthy, C Mahoney, JM Mahoney, JT TI Board structure, antitakeover provisions, and stockholder wealth SO STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT JOURNAL LA English DT Article DE antitakeover provisions; board leadership; shareholder wealth ID POISON PILL SECURITIES; OWNERSHIP STRUCTURE; SHAREHOLDER WEALTH; CORPORATE GOVERNANCE; GOLDEN PARACHUTES; CHARTER AMENDMENTS; INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP; VOTING-RIGHTS; STOCK RETURNS; CEO DUALITY AB This paper's regression analyses from a sample of 261 firms that adopted 486 antitakeover provisions (supermajority, classified boards, fair-price, reduction in cumulative voting, anti-greenmail and poison pills) in the 1984-88 period indicate that the negative market reactions to antitakeover provisions vary depending on firms' board structures. This paper's empirical evidence indicates that while separating the positions of CEO and chairperson of the board reduces the negative effect, increased outsider representation increases negative marker reactions. (C) 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. C1 FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK, NEW YORK, NY 10045 USA. UNIV ILLINOIS, COLL COMMERCE & BUSINESS ADM, CHAMPAIGN, IL 61820 USA. RP Sundaramurthy, C (reprint author), UNIV KENTUCKY, COLL BUSINESS & ECON, LEXINGTON, KY 40506 USA. NR 97 TC 51 Z9 53 U1 8 U2 19 PU JOHN WILEY & SONS LTD PI W SUSSEX PA BAFFINS LANE CHICHESTER, W SUSSEX, ENGLAND PO19 1UD SN 0143-2095 J9 STRATEGIC MANAGE J JI Strateg. Manage. J. PD MAR PY 1997 VL 18 IS 3 BP 231 EP 245 PG 15 WC Business; Management SC Business & Economics GA WL039 UT WOS:A1997WL03900004 ER PT J AU Jordan, JL AF Jordan, JL TI The great big issue SO FORBES LA English DT Letter RP Jordan, JL (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,CLEVELAND,OH 44114, USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU FORBES INC PI NEW YORK PA 60 FIFTH AVE, NEW YORK, NY 10011 SN 0015-6914 J9 FORBES JI Forbes PD FEB 24 PY 1997 SU S BP 17 EP 17 PG 1 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA WH941 UT WOS:A1997WH94100020 ER PT J AU Adams, LS Allouise, P Barr, L Baxter, TC Egan, R Fox, T Gabriel, H Greco, T Heller, S Kadish, M Karnick, L Karr, M Kenny, M Kohlligian, AM Ledig, B Lee, JJ Ligon, K Lipkin, D Luke, J Mahon, E Marquette, M Martin, S McCall, C Nelson, N Neth, S Parker, I Polmer, H Rinearson, J Smith, D Stephenson, HG Sullivan, M Wallace, A Whitaker, D Whitemore, T Wysocki, H AF Adams, LS Allouise, P Barr, L Baxter, TC Egan, R Fox, T Gabriel, H Greco, T Heller, S Kadish, M Karnick, L Karr, M Kenny, M Kohlligian, AM Ledig, B Lee, JJ Ligon, K Lipkin, D Luke, J Mahon, E Marquette, M Martin, S McCall, C Nelson, N Neth, S Parker, I Polmer, H Rinearson, J Smith, D Stephenson, HG Sullivan, M Wallace, A Whitaker, D Whitemore, T Wysocki, H TI A commercial lawyer's take on the electronic purse: An analysis of commercial law issues associated with stored-value cards and electronic money SO BUSINESS LAWYER LA English DT Article AB The existing legal framework and regulatory apparatus for retail payments seems ill-equipped to deal with an electronic future, if it unfolds as anticipated. The primary objective of the Task Force's report is to consider the commercial law that may govern new electronic retail payment media such as stored-value cards and electronic money, and to see whether some tried and true principles of our commercial law may provide useful building blocks which will facilitate development. C1 FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON, BOSTON, MA USA. GOODWIN PROCTER & HOAR, BOSTON, MA USA. FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK, NEW YORK, NY USA. LOYOLA LAW SCH, CHICAGO, IL USA. AMER BANKERS ASSOC, WASHINGTON, DC 20005 USA. FED RESERVE BANK, ST LOUIS, MO USA. CITICORP, CITIBANK, NEW YORK, NY 10043 USA. FED RESERVE SYST, BOARD GOVERNORS, WASHINGTON, DC USA. DAVIS POLK & WARDWELL, NEW YORK, NY USA. FED RESERVE BANK PHILADELPHIA, PHILADELPHIA, PA USA. US DEPT TREASURY, BUR PUBL DEBT, WASHINGTON, DC USA. FED RESERVE SYST, BOARD GOVERNORS, WASHINGTON, DC USA. NEW YORK CLEARING HOUSE, NEW YORK, NY USA. CASE WESTERN RESERVE UNIV, CLEVELAND, OH 44106 USA. ALSTON & BIRD, ATLANTA, GA USA. BELL BOYD & LLOYD, CHICAGO, IL USA. AMER EXPRESS TRAVEL RELATED SERV CO INC, COLUMBUS, OH USA. CONSUMER BANKERS ASSOC, ARLINGTON, VA USA. US DEPT TREASURY, FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT SERV, WASHINGTON, DC USA. BANK OKLAHOMA, OKLAHOMA CITY, OK USA. RP Adams, LS (reprint author), MORRISON & FOERSTER, SAN FRANCISCO, CA 94104 USA. NR 36 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 5 PU AMER BAR ASSOC, ADMINISTRATIVE LAW & REGULATORY PRACTICE SECTION PI CHICAGO PA 321 N CLARK ST, CHICAGO, IL 60610 USA SN 0007-6899 J9 BUS LAWYER JI Bus. Lawyer PD FEB PY 1997 VL 52 IS 2 BP 653 EP + PG 0 WC Law SC Government & Law GA WQ572 UT WOS:A1997WQ57200009 ER PT J AU Gilles, C LeRoy, SF AF Gilles, C LeRoy, SF TI Bubbles as payoffs at infinity SO ECONOMIC THEORY LA English DT Article ID CHARGES; PRICES AB We define rational bubbles to be securities with payoffs occurring in the infinitely distant future and investigate the behavior of bubbles values. We extend our analysis to a setting of uncertainty. In an infinite horizon arbitrage-free model of asset prices, we interpret the money market account as the value of a particular bubble; a similar interpretation holds for other assets related to the state-price deflator and to payoffs on bonds maturing in the distant future. We present three applications of this characterization of bubbles. C1 UNIV MINNESOTA,CARLSON SCH MANAGEMENT,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55455. RP Gilles, C (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 20 TC 10 Z9 10 U1 0 U2 2 PU SPRINGER VERLAG PI NEW YORK PA 175 FIFTH AVE, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0938-2259 J9 ECON THEORY JI Econ. Theory PD FEB PY 1997 VL 9 IS 2 BP 261 EP 281 DI 10.1007/s001990050123 PG 21 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA WN749 UT WOS:A1997WN74900003 ER PT J AU Kelly, EW AF Kelly, EW TI The future of electronic money: A regulator's perspective SO IEEE SPECTRUM LA English DT Article RP Kelly, EW (reprint author), US FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU IEEE-INST ELECTRICAL ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS INC PI NEW YORK PA 345 E 47TH ST, NEW YORK, NY 10017-2394 SN 0018-9235 J9 IEEE SPECTRUM JI IEEE Spectr. PD FEB PY 1997 VL 34 IS 2 BP 20 EP & DI 10.1109/6.570822 PG 4 WC Engineering, Electrical & Electronic SC Engineering GA WF973 UT WOS:A1997WF97300013 ER PT J AU Fernandez, R Rogerson, R AF Fernandez, R Rogerson, R TI Keeping people out: Income distribution, zoning, and the quality of public education SO INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID EQUILIBRIUM; TAXATION; MODEL AB We examine the effect of community zoning regulations on allocations and welfare in a two-community model. Individuals choose in which community to live and each community levies a tax, chosen via majority vote, on local property to finance local public education. We study both exogenously specified and endogenously chosen zoning regulations. In equilibrium, the two communities are stratified by income. Theoretical analysis indicates that a number of outcomes are possible. Several interesting results emerge: Zoning tends to make the richer community more exclusive, but the gap between education expenditures may decrease. Moreover, welfare effects are not monotone in income. C1 NATL BUR ECON RES,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. UNIV MINNESOTA,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55455. FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55480. RP Fernandez, R (reprint author), NYU,550 1ST AVE,NEW YORK,NY 10012, USA. NR 18 TC 32 Z9 34 U1 1 U2 4 PU UNIV PENN PI PHILADELPHIA PA DEPT ECON MCNEIL BLDG CR, PHILADELPHIA, PA 19174 SN 0020-6598 J9 INT ECON REV JI Int. Econ. Rev. PD FEB PY 1997 VL 38 IS 1 BP 23 EP 42 DI 10.2307/2527406 PG 20 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA XD227 UT WOS:A1997XD22700002 ER PT J AU Benston, GJ Hunter, WC Kaufman, GG AF Benston, GJ Hunter, WC Kaufman, GG TI Special double issue: Discrimination in financial services - Introduction SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH LA English DT Editorial Material C1 FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,CHICAGO,IL. LOYOLA UNIV,CHICAGO,IL 60611. RP Benston, GJ (reprint author), EMORY UNIV,ATLANTA,GA 30322, USA. NR 0 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 2 U2 2 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0920-8550 J9 J FINANC SERV RES JI J. Financ. Serv. Res. PD FEB PY 1997 VL 11 IS 1-2 BP 7 EP 7 PG 1 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA XF942 UT WOS:A1997XF94200001 ER PT J AU Avery, RB Beeson, PE Calem, PS AF Avery, RB Beeson, PE Calem, PS TI Using HMDA data as a regulatory screen for fair lending compliance SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Discrimination on Financial Services CY MAR 22, 1996 CL FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO, CHICAGO, IL SP Fed Reserve Bank Chicago, Loyola Univ, Ctr Financial & Policy Studies, J Financial Serv Res HO FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO AB This paper describes and evaluates the Federal Reserve System's recently developed program designed to use HMDA data as a screening device for fair lending enforcement. The program is designed to identify institutions showing potentially discriminatory patterns in their treatment of minority mortgage applicants vis-a-vis nonminority applicants. The program also selects specific loan files to pull for additional information in cases where a more comprehensive evaluation might be appropriate. This paper discusses the motivation behind the adoption of the program and its innovative ''matched-pair'' method and assesses its value and potential shortcomings. C1 UNIV PITTSBURGH,PITTSBURGH,PA 15260. FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,CLEVELAND,OH. NR 12 TC 7 Z9 7 U1 0 U2 2 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0920-8550 J9 J FINANC SERV RES JI J. Financ. Serv. Res. PD FEB PY 1997 VL 11 IS 1-2 BP 9 EP 42 DI 10.1023/A:1007937422673 PG 34 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA XF942 UT WOS:A1997XF94200002 ER PT J AU Evanoff, DD Segal, LM AF Evanoff, DD Segal, LM TI Strategic responses to bank regulation: Evidence from HMDA data SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Discrimination on Financial Services CY MAR 22, 1996 CL FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO, CHICAGO, IL SP Fed Reserve Bank Chicago, Loyola Univ, Ctr Financial & Policy Studies, J Financial Serv Res HO FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO ID DEMAND AB The intent of fair lending regulation is to encourage loans in low-income areas and ensure that loan decisions are based on economic criteria instead of noneconomic borrower characteristics. We evaluate situations in which banks may find it in their self interest to respond to regulation in a strategic manner intended to improve public relations and appease regulators rather than to adhere to the true spirit of the regulation. We find some evidence consistent with such behavior. RP Evanoff, DD (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,CHICAGO,IL 60604, USA. NR 32 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 0 U2 4 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0920-8550 J9 J FINANC SERV RES JI J. Financ. Serv. Res. PD FEB PY 1997 VL 11 IS 1-2 BP 69 EP 93 DI 10.1023/A:1007931207652 PG 25 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA XF942 UT WOS:A1997XF94200004 ER PT J AU Townsend, R AF Townsend, R TI Discrimination in financial services: How should we proceed? SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Discrimination on Financial Services CY MAR 22, 1996 CL FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO, CHICAGO, IL SP Fed Reserve Bank Chicago, Loyola Univ, Ctr Financial & Policy Studies, J Financial Serv Res HO FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO C1 FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,CHICAGO,IL. RP Townsend, R (reprint author), UNIV CHICAGO,CHICAGO,IL 60637, USA. NR 0 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 1 U2 2 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0920-8550 J9 J FINANC SERV RES JI J. Financ. Serv. Res. PD FEB PY 1997 VL 11 IS 1-2 BP 215 EP 217 DI 10.1023/A:1007999728125 PG 3 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA XF942 UT WOS:A1997XF94200013 ER PT J AU Edison, HJ Gagnon, JE Melick, WR AF Edison, HJ Gagnon, JE Melick, WR TI Understanding the empirical literature on purchasing power parity: The post-Bretton Woods era SO JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL MONEY AND FINANCE LA English DT Article ID LONG-RUN; EXCHANGE-RATES; QUANTITATIVE REASSESSMENT; COINTEGRATION; 1920S; HYPOTHESIS; TESTS; REAL; VECTORS; MODELS AB This paper argues that the empirical failure of statistical tests of PPP in post-Bretton Woods data is largely due to the low power of the tests employed. This result is demonstrated using Monte Carlo experiments on the size and power of different testing procedures. A new procedure based on Horvath and Watson (Econometric Theory, 11, pp. 984-1014, 1995) has greater power than previous approaches. Using the Horvath-Watson procedure we find moderate evidence in favor of PPP in the post-Bretton Woods era. (JEL F31, C15). (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. RP Edison, HJ (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST, BOARD GOVERNORS, DIV INT FINANCE, WASHINGTON, DC 20551 USA. RI Edison, Hali/A-7550-2009 NR 48 TC 45 Z9 45 U1 0 U2 3 PU ELSEVIER SCI LTD PI OXFORD PA THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD OX5 1GB, OXON, ENGLAND SN 0261-5606 J9 J INT MONEY FINANC JI J. Int. Money Finan. PD FEB PY 1997 VL 16 IS 1 BP 1 EP 17 DI 10.1016/S0261-5606(96)00046-0 PG 17 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA WN444 UT WOS:A1997WN44400001 ER PT J AU Ely, DP Robinson, KJ AF Ely, DP Robinson, KJ TI Are stocks a hedge against inflation? International evidence using a long-run approach SO JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL MONEY AND FINANCE LA English DT Article ID ASSET RETURNS; EQUILIBRIUM-MODEL; INTEREST-RATES; COMMON-STOCKS; REAL ACTIVITY; TIME-SERIES; UNIT-ROOT; PRICES; COINTEGRATION; MONEY AB A large body of evidence indicates that the stock market tends to perform poorly during inflationary time periods. However, these results are mostly obtained from models structured to estimate the short-run relationships between stock returns and inflation. In this paper, we use a reduced-form approach and recent advances in the theory of cointegration to explore the international evidence on the relationship between stock prices and goods prices. This approach allows us to test if stocks maintain their value relative to goods prices and whether these response patterns depend on the source of inflation shocks. For most of the countries analysed, our results indicate that stocks do maintain their value relative to movements in overall price indexes and this conclusion generally does not depend on whether the source of the inflation shock is from the real or monetary sector. One notable exception is that stocks do not maintain their value relative to goods price following real output shocks in the US. (JEL G15, E44). (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. C1 FED RESERVE BANK DALLAS,DALLAS,TX 75201. RP Ely, DP (reprint author), SAN DIEGO STATE UNIV,DEPT FINANCE,SAN DIEGO,CA 92182, USA. NR 33 TC 21 Z9 21 U1 1 U2 4 PU ELSEVIER SCI LTD PI OXFORD PA THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD, OXON, ENGLAND OX5 1GB SN 0261-5606 J9 J INT MONEY FINANC JI J. Int. Money Finan. PD FEB PY 1997 VL 16 IS 1 BP 141 EP 167 DI 10.1016/S0261-5606(96)00039-3 PG 27 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA WN444 UT WOS:A1997WN44400007 ER PT J AU Hodrick, RJ Prescott, EC AF Hodrick, RJ Prescott, EC TI Postwar US business cycles: An empirical investigation SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article AB We propose a procedure for representing a time series as the sum of a smoothly varying trend component and a cyclical component. We document the nature of the comovements of the cyclical components of a variety of macroeconomic time series. We find that these comovements are very different than the corresponding comovements of the slowly varying trend components. C1 FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN. UNIV MINNESOTA,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55455. NATL BUR ECON RES,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. RP Hodrick, RJ (reprint author), COLUMBIA UNIV,GRAD SCH BUSINESS,NEW YORK,NY 10027, USA. NR 18 TC 1247 Z9 1319 U1 7 U2 35 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD FEB PY 1997 VL 29 IS 1 BP 1 EP 16 DI 10.2307/2953682 PG 16 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA WH374 UT WOS:A1997WH37400001 ER PT J AU Merlo, A AF Merlo, A TI Bargaining over governments in a stochastic environment SO JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY LA English DT Article ID PARLIAMENTARY DEMOCRACIES; MODEL; SEARCH; COALITIONS; JOB AB In this paper, I structurally estimate a stochastic bargaining model of government formation in a multiparty parliamentary democracy, and I conduct policy experiments to evaluate the effects of changes in the bargaining procedure. I show that the model fits well data on the duration of negotiations and government durations in postwar Italy. Also, I show that changes in the proposer selection process would not affect either the duration of negotiations or government durations, whereas the imposition of a strict deadline would in general reduce the incentives to delay agreement as well as government durations. C1 FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN. RP Merlo, A (reprint author), UNIV MINNESOTA,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55455, USA. NR 35 TC 42 Z9 42 U1 3 U2 8 PU UNIV CHICAGO PRESS PI CHICAGO PA 5720 S WOODLAWN AVE, CHICAGO, IL 60637 SN 0022-3808 J9 J POLIT ECON JI J. Polit. Econ. PD FEB PY 1997 VL 105 IS 1 BP 101 EP 131 DI 10.1086/262067 PG 31 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA WH201 UT WOS:A1997WH20100005 ER PT J AU Doms, M Dunne, T Troske, KR AF Doms, M Dunne, T Troske, KR TI Workers, wages, and technology SO QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID STATES AB This paper documents how plant-level wages, occupational mix, workforce education, and productivity vary with the adoption and use of new factory automation technologies such as programmable controllers, computer-automated design, and numerically controlled machines. Our cross-sectional results show that plants that use a large number of new technologies employ more educated workers, employ relatively more managers, professionals, and precision-craft workers, and pay higher wages. However, our longitudinal analysis shows little correlation between skill upgrading and the adoption of new technologies. It appears that plants that adopt new factory automation technologies have more skilled workforces both pre- and postadoption. C1 UNIV OKLAHOMA,NORMAN,OK 73019. US BUR CENSUS,CTR ECON STUDIES,WASHINGTON,DC 20233. RP Doms, M (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 30 TC 225 Z9 227 U1 2 U2 14 PU M I T PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA FIVE CAMBRIDGE CENTER, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 SN 0033-5533 J9 Q J ECON JI Q. J. Econ. PD FEB PY 1997 VL 112 IS 1 BP 253 EP 290 DI 10.1162/003355397555181 PG 38 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA WM819 UT WOS:A1997WM81900008 ER PT J AU Grosskopf, S Hayes, KJ Taylor, LL Weber, WL AF Grosskopf, S Hayes, KJ Taylor, LL Weber, WL TI Budget-constrained frontier measures of fiscal equality and efficiency in schooling SO REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS LA English DT Article ID PUBLIC-SCHOOLS; QUALITY MATTER; TEACHER UNIONS; PERFORMANCE; EDUCATION; PRODUCTIVITY; DISTRICT; ISSUES AB Equality and efficiency are key issues in educational reform. Here the authors analyze the efficiency and equality consequences of various school finance reforms using a cost-indirect output distance function. This function readily models multiple-output production under conditions of budgetary constraint, and provides a natural measure of performance that is closely related to Farrell-type measures of efficiency. The analysis suggests that despite school district inefficiency, finance reforms can affect student achievement. However, any potential gains in output from redistribution are dwarfed by the potential gains from increased efficiency. More strikingly, the analysis demonstrates that budgetary reforms designed to equalize expenditures could actually increase the inequality of student achievement. C1 SO METHODIST UNIV,DALLAS,TX 75275. FED RESERVE BANK DALLAS,DALLAS,TX. SE MISSOURI STATE UNIV,CAPE GIRARDEAU,MO 63701. RP Grosskopf, S (reprint author), SO ILLINOIS UNIV,CARBONDALE,IL 62901, USA. RI GROSSKOPF , Shawnax/H-4031-2013 NR 38 TC 89 Z9 90 U1 0 U2 8 PU M I T PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA FIVE CAMBRIDGE CENTER, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 SN 0034-6535 J9 REV ECON STAT JI Rev. Econ. Stat. PD FEB PY 1997 VL 79 IS 1 BP 116 EP 124 DI 10.1162/003465397556458 PG 9 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA WU459 UT WOS:A1997WU45900012 ER PT J AU Rhoades, SA AF Rhoades, SA TI Research on IO topics in banking: An introduction and overview SO REVIEW OF INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATION LA English DT Editorial Material RP Rhoades, SA (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD,FINANCIAL STRUCT SECT,STOP 149,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 0 TC 9 Z9 9 U1 0 U2 0 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0889-938X J9 REV IND ORGAN JI Rev. Ind. Organ. PD FEB PY 1997 VL 12 IS 1 BP 1 EP 8 DI 10.1023/A:1007769127555 PG 8 WC Economics; Management SC Business & Economics GA WQ001 UT WOS:A1997WQ00100001 ER PT J AU Hannan, TH AF Hannan, TH TI Market share inequality, the number of competitors, and the HHI: An examination of bank pricing SO REVIEW OF INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATION LA English DT Article DE banking; competition; antitrust ID INDUSTRY AB This paper seeks to determine whether the Herfindahl-Hirschman index (HHI) adequately accounts for the roles of market share inequality and the number of competitors in explaining bank deposit and loan rates. This is been done by estimating deposit-rate and loan-rate equations in which the HHI is decomposed into components that reflect share inequality and number of competitors and, alternatively, by adding measures of share inequality and the number of competitors as additional explanatory variables. Results are inconclusive in the case of deposit rates but suggest that the HHI does not give sufficient weight to the number of competitors in explaining loan rates. RP Hannan, TH (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD,STOP 149,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 7 TC 37 Z9 41 U1 1 U2 4 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0889-938X J9 REV IND ORGAN JI Rev. Ind. Organ. PD FEB PY 1997 VL 12 IS 1 BP 23 EP 35 DI 10.1023/A:1007744119377 PG 13 WC Economics; Management SC Business & Economics GA WQ001 UT WOS:A1997WQ00100003 ER PT J AU Amel, DF Liang, JN AF Amel, DF Liang, JN TI Determinants of entry and profits in local banking markets SO REVIEW OF INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATION LA English DT Article DE entry banking; branching; potential competition ID DYNAMICS AB This paper estimates a two equation model of market entry and profits, utilizing data on entry into over 2,000 banking markets over the period 1977-88. The entry equations measure whether entry depends on incumbent firms' profits and other market attributes that reflect the long-term attractiveness of markets for entry. Market profits, assumed to follow a partial-adjustment process, are affected by entry directly and indirectly through market structure. The model also corrects for an unavoidable source of error in market-level profits for the banking industry. The estimates suggest that a competitive process is at work in banking markets that limits the ability of supra-normal profits to persist. Entry is more likely in markets that have high profits, consistent with previous empirical results that market structure adjusts more quickly when profits are supra-normal. Population and population growth are also strong determinants of entry. Entry, in turn, reduces profits in rural markets. RP Amel, DF (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD,FINANCIAL STRUCT SECT,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 25 TC 25 Z9 25 U1 1 U2 5 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0889-938X J9 REV IND ORGAN JI Rev. Ind. Organ. PD FEB PY 1997 VL 12 IS 1 BP 59 EP 78 DI 10.1023/A:1007796520286 PG 20 WC Economics; Management SC Business & Economics GA WQ001 UT WOS:A1997WQ00100005 ER PT J AU Sharpe, SA AF Sharpe, SA TI The effect of consumer switching costs on prices: A theory and its application to the bank deposit market SO REVIEW OF INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATION LA English DT Article DE switching costs; market concentration; deposit rates ID COMPETITION AB As demonstrated by Klemperer (1987), if households face a cost of switching among brands of a differentiated good, pricing is likely to be more competitive, the greater is the fraction of customers that move into or around the market. I generalize this theory to a world with arbitrary market structure and test it empirically using panel data on bank retail deposit interest rates. I find that the amount of household migration in a market has a significant competitive influence on price markups, that is, a positive effect on the level of deposit interest rates. Consistent with the model, the magnitude of this effect depends in some cases upon the degree of market concentration. RP Sharpe, SA (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 11 TC 44 Z9 46 U1 1 U2 5 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0889-938X J9 REV IND ORGAN JI Rev. Ind. Organ. PD FEB PY 1997 VL 12 IS 1 BP 79 EP 94 DI 10.1023/A:1007748623012 PG 16 WC Economics; Management SC Business & Economics GA WQ001 UT WOS:A1997WQ00100006 ER PT B AU Sheiner, L AF Sheiner, L GP NATL TAX ASSOC NATL TAX ASSOC NATL TAX ASSOC NATL TAX ASSOC TI Health reform three years later: The federal perspective SO 1996 PROCEEDINGS OF THE EIGHTY-NINTH ANNUAL CONFERENCE ON TAXATION LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT 89th Annual Conference of the National-Tax-Association on Taxation CY NOV 10-12, 1996 CL BOSTON, MA SP Natl Tax Assoc C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU NATL TAX ASSOC-TAX INST AMER PI COLUMBUS PA 5310 E MAIN ST, SUITE 104, COLUMBUS, OH 43213 USA PY 1997 BP 46 EP 51 PG 6 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA BK14A UT WOS:000071309300007 ER PT B AU Segal, LM Connolly, LS AF Segal, LM Connolly, LS GP NATL TAX ASSOC NATL TAX ASSOC NATL TAX ASSOC NATL TAX ASSOC TI Commercial activity and taxation in the nonprofit sector SO 1996 PROCEEDINGS OF THE EIGHTY-NINTH ANNUAL CONFERENCE ON TAXATION LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT 89th Annual Conference of the National-Tax-Association on Taxation CY NOV 10-12, 1996 CL BOSTON, MA SP Natl Tax Assoc C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Chicago, IL USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU NATL TAX ASSOC-TAX INST AMER PI COLUMBUS PA 5310 E MAIN ST, SUITE 104, COLUMBUS, OH 43213 USA PY 1997 BP 145 EP 152 PG 8 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA BK14A UT WOS:000071309300018 ER PT J AU Henderson, J McNamara, K AF Henderson, J McNamara, K TI Food processing firms' plant location. SO AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Meeting Abstract C1 Fed Reserve Bank Kansas City, Kansas City, KS USA. Purdue Univ, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU AMER AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS ASSOC PI AMES PA 1110 BUCKEYE AVE, AMES, IA 50010-8063 USA SN 0002-9092 J9 AM J AGR ECON JI Am. J. Agr. Econ. PY 1997 VL 79 IS 5 SI SI BP 1710 EP 1710 PG 1 WC Agricultural Economics & Policy; Economics SC Agriculture; Business & Economics GA ZN774 UT WOS:000073681300191 ER PT S AU Mishkin, FS AF Mishkin, FS BE Bruno, M Pleskovic, B TI Understanding financial crises: A developing country perspective SO ANNUAL WORLD BANK CONFERENCE ON DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS 1996 SE ANNUAL WORLD BANK CONFERENCE ON DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT 8th Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics CY APR 25-26, 1996 CL WASHINGTON, DC SP World Bank AB How does a developing economy shift dramatically from a path of reasonable growth before a financial crisis, as was the case in Mexico in 1994, to a sharp decline in economic activity after a crisis? This article explains this puzzle by outlining an asymmetric information framework for analyzing banking and financial crises. The framework shows why the banking sector is so important to the economy, particularly in developing countries, and provides a rationale for bank regulation and supervision. The framework is also used to show why banking and financial crises occur and why they cart have such a devastating effect on the economy. An important policy implication is that an appropriate institutional structure is critical for preventing banking and financial crises in developing countries and for reducing their undesirable effects should they occur. C1 FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,NEW YORK,NY 10045. NR 0 TC 14 Z9 14 U1 0 U2 1 PU WORLD BANK PI WASHINGTON PA 1818 H STREET NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20433 SN 1020-4407 BN 0-8213-3786-6 J9 ANN WB CONF DEV ECON PY 1997 BP 29 EP 77 PG 49 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA BH19W UT WOS:A1997BH19W00004 ER PT S AU Reifschneider, DL Stockton, DJ Wilcox, DW AF Reifschneider, DL Stockton, DJ Wilcox, DW BE McCallum, BT Plosser, CI TI Econometric models and the monetary policy process SO CARNEGIE-ROCHESTER CONFERENCE SERIES ON PUBLIC POLICY, VOL 47, 1997 SE CARNEGIE-ROCHESTER CONFERENCE SERIES ON PUBLIC POLICY LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Carnegie-Rochester Conference on Public Policy CY NOV, 1996 CL PITTSBURGH, PA SP Carnegie Mellon Univ, Ctr Study Publ Policy, Univ Rochester, Bradley Policy Res Ctr AB Econometric models play an important role in the monetary policy process of the Federal Reserve Board. Large-scale macroeconometric models are employed for forecasting, policy simulations, and the evaluation of monetary policy rules. However, in this work, we employ a mix of the algorithmic application of these models and judgment guided by information not available to models. We describe this approach and present an assessment of its strengths and weaknesses. The experience of the 1990-91 recession and the subsequent recovery is used to illustrate some of the practical difficulties surrounding the use of econometric models for policy analysis. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 0 TC 23 Z9 23 U1 0 U2 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA SARA BURGERHARTSTRAAT 25, PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0167-2231 J9 CARN ROCH CONF SERIE PY 1997 VL 47 BP 1 EP 37 DI 10.1016/S0167-2231(98)00002-5 PG 37 WC Public Administration SC Public Administration GA BK83T UT WOS:000073602800001 ER PT S AU Brayton, F Levin, A Tryon, R Williams, JC AF Brayton, F Levin, A Tryon, R Williams, JC BE McCallum, BT Plosser, CI TI The evolution of macro models at the Federal Reserve Board SO CARNEGIE-ROCHESTER CONFERENCE SERIES ON PUBLIC POLICY, VOL 47, 1997 SE CARNEGIE-ROCHESTER CONFERENCE SERIES ON PUBLIC POLICY LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Carnegie-Rochester Conference on Public Policy CY NOV, 1996 CL PITTSBURGH, PA SP Carnegie Mellon Univ, Ctr Study Publ Policy, Univ Rochester, Bradley Policy Res Ctr AB Large-scale macroeconomic models have been used at the Federal Reserve Board for nearly 30 years. After briefly reviewing the first generation of Fed models, which were based on the IS/LM//Phillips curve paradigm, the paper describes the structure and properties of a new set of models. The new models are more explicit in their treatment of expectations formation and household and firm intertemporal decision-making. The incorporation of more rigorous theoretical microfoundations is accomplished while maintaining a high standard of goodness of fit. Simulations illustrate the effects of alternative assumptions about the formation of expectations and policy credibility on system properties. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 0 TC 33 Z9 33 U1 0 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA SARA BURGERHARTSTRAAT 25, PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0167-2231 J9 CARN ROCH CONF SERIE PY 1997 VL 47 BP 43 EP 81 DI 10.1016/S0167-2231(98)00004-9 PG 39 WC Public Administration SC Public Administration GA BK83T UT WOS:000073602800003 ER PT S AU Faust, J Whiteman, CH AF Faust, J Whiteman, CH BE McCallum, BT Plosser, CI TI General-to-specific procedures for fitting a data-admissible, theory-inspired, congruent, parsimonious, encompassing, weakly-exogenous, identified, structural model to the DGP: A translation and critique SO CARNEGIE-ROCHESTER CONFERENCE SERIES ON PUBLIC POLICY, VOL 47, 1997 SE CARNEGIE-ROCHESTER CONFERENCE SERIES ON PUBLIC POLICY LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Carnegie-Rochester Conference on Public Policy CY NOV, 1996 CL PITTSBURGH, PA SP Carnegie Mellon Univ, Ctr Study Publ Policy, Univ Rochester, Bradley Policy Res Ctr AB We characterize the LSE approach by its implications For reduced-form modeling and structural interpretations. Much of what has come to be associated with the LSE methodology involves the approach to fitting reduced forms, and can be thought of as a pragmatic solution to problems created by short samples plagued by serial correlation. The policy analysis one might be able to do with an "LSE model," on the other hand, hinges on structural identification arguments which do not meet the classic Cowles Commission standards, and is thus suspect. C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 0 TC 8 Z9 8 U1 0 U2 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA SARA BURGERHARTSTRAAT 25, PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0167-2231 J9 CARN ROCH CONF SERIE PY 1997 VL 47 BP 121 EP 161 DI 10.1016/S0167-2231(98)00007-4 PG 41 WC Public Administration SC Public Administration GA BK83T UT WOS:000073602800006 ER PT S AU Faust, J Whiteman, CH AF Faust, J Whiteman, CH BE McCallum, BT Plosser, CI TI Rejoinder to Hendry SO CARNEGIE-ROCHESTER CONFERENCE SERIES ON PUBLIC POLICY, VOL 47, 1997 SE CARNEGIE-ROCHESTER CONFERENCE SERIES ON PUBLIC POLICY LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Carnegie-Rochester Conference on Public Policy CY NOV, 1996 CL PITTSBURGH, PA SP Carnegie Mellon Univ, Ctr Study Publ Policy, Univ Rochester, Bradley Policy Res Ctr C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA SARA BURGERHARTSTRAAT 25, PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0167-2231 J9 CARN ROCH CONF SERIE PY 1997 VL 47 BP 191 EP 195 DI 10.1016/S0167-2231(98)00009-8 PG 5 WC Public Administration SC Public Administration GA BK83T UT WOS:000073602800008 ER PT S AU Fuhrer, JC AF Fuhrer, JC BE McCallum, BT Plosser, CI TI Towards a compact, empirically-verified rational expectations model for monetary policy analysis SO CARNEGIE-ROCHESTER CONFERENCE SERIES ON PUBLIC POLICY, VOL 47, 1997 SE CARNEGIE-ROCHESTER CONFERENCE SERIES ON PUBLIC POLICY LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Carnegie-Rochester Conference on Public Policy CY NOV, 1996 CL PITTSBURGH, PA SP Carnegie Mellon Univ, Ctr Study Publ Policy, Univ Rochester, Bradley Policy Res Ctr AB This paper extends the sticky-price models of Fuhrer and Moore (1995a,b) to include explicit, optimization-based consumption and investment decisions. The goal is to use the resulting model for monetary policy analysis; consequently, strong emphasis placed on empirical validation of the model. I use a canonical formulation of the consumer's problem from Campbell and Mankiw (1989), and a time-to-build investment model with costs of adjustment. The restrictions imposed by these models, in conjunction with those imposed on prices and output by the Fuhrer-Moore contracting specification, imply dynamic behavior that is grossly inconsistent with the data. (JEL E52, E43). C1 Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Dept Res, Boston, MA 02106 USA. NR 0 TC 9 Z9 9 U1 0 U2 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA SARA BURGERHARTSTRAAT 25, PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0167-2231 J9 CARN ROCH CONF SERIE PY 1997 VL 47 BP 197 EP 230 DI 10.1016/S0167-2231(98)00010-4 PG 34 WC Public Administration SC Public Administration GA BK83T UT WOS:000073602800009 ER PT B AU Hogarth, JM Shue, JF AF Hogarth, JM Shue, JF BE Leech, IE TI Consumers' response to credit card solicitations SO CONSUMER INTERESTS ANNUAL, VOL 43: 43RD ANNUAL CONFERENCE OF THE AMERICAN COUNCIL ON CONSUMER INTERESTS LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT 43rd Annual Conference of the American-Council-on-Consumer-Interests CY APR 02-05, 1997 CL SALT LAKE CITY, UT SP Amer Council Consumer Interests AB Credit card issuers have heavily marketed their cards via mail solicitations. Previous studies show that a variety of economic, demographic, and attitudinal characteristics, along with card features, explain consumer credit. Using primary data from Michigan's Survey Research Center, we found scant support for socio-economic characteristics as determinants of applying for a credit card; attitudinal variables are important in our models. C1 FED RESERVE BOARD,BOARD GOVERNORS,FED RESERVE SYST,WASHINGTON,DC. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU AMER COUNCIL COMSUMER INTERESTS PI COLUMBIA PA 240 STANLEY HALL, UNIV MISSOURI, COLUMBIA, MO 65211 PY 1997 BP 10 EP 15 PG 6 WC Business SC Business & Economics GA BJ73T UT WOS:A1997BJ73T00003 ER PT B AU Hogarth, JM AF Hogarth, JM BE Leech, IE TI (Almost) everything you want to know about the new consumer leasing rules SO CONSUMER INTERESTS ANNUAL, VOL 43: 43RD ANNUAL CONFERENCE OF THE AMERICAN COUNCIL ON CONSUMER INTERESTS LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT 43rd Annual Conference of the American-Council-on-Consumer-Interests CY APR 02-05, 1997 CL SALT LAKE CITY, UT SP Amer Council Consumer Interests AB The Consumer Leasing Act covers consumer leases of four months or more where the value of the lease is for $25,000 or less. In October, 1997 new disclosure rules in Regulation M take effect which provide more information to help consumers make choices and comparisons among leases. In the end, however, leasing remains a complicated transaction and information asymmetry may remain a problem for consumers. C1 FED RESERVE BOARD,DIV CONSUMER & COMMUNITY AFFAIRS,WASHINGTON,DC. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU AMER COUNCIL COMSUMER INTERESTS PI COLUMBIA PA 240 STANLEY HALL, UNIV MISSOURI, COLUMBIA, MO 65211 PY 1997 BP 218 EP 221 PG 4 WC Business SC Business & Economics GA BJ73T UT WOS:A1997BJ73T00059 ER PT J AU ODriscoll, GP Saving, TR Grubel, HC Harberger, AC Friedman, M Hoskins, WL Ahiakpor, J Sarkar, S Zycher, B Hetzel, B Zerbe, D Tullock, G Stiroh, K Canes, M Harrison, M Asher, M Moore, B Foldvary, F AF ODriscoll, GP Saving, TR Grubel, HC Harberger, AC Friedman, M Hoskins, WL Ahiakpor, J Sarkar, S Zycher, B Hetzel, B Zerbe, D Tullock, G Stiroh, K Canes, M Harrison, M Asher, M Moore, B Foldvary, F TI Tax reform SO CONTEMPORARY ECONOMIC POLICY LA English DT Editorial Material AB After brief individual presentations, panelists discuss among themselves and with the audience a broad spectrum of issues regarding various taxes and tax reform proposals. The discussion includes such issues as privatizing Social Security and Medicare, eliminating income tax withholding, and the merits and demerits of income taxes, consumption taxes, value added taxes, sales taxes, and taxes on resources that have an inelastic supply. One panelist relates his recent experiences using his tools as an economist to deal with tax and related issues as a current member of the Canadian Parliament. Another cites practical problems of implementing tax reform from his long experience advising governments, especially in Latin America. A major focus of the exchange of views is on public choice problems involved in passing and implementing a so-called flat tax. However the discussion also deals with economic efficiency and equity considerations and with nearly all other types of taxes. The discussion includes not only the impact on the country within which tax reform occurs, but international implications, as well. C1 TEXAS A&M UNIV, COLLEGE STN, TX USA. CANADIAN PARLIAMENT, OTTAWA, ON, CANADA. SIMON FRASER UNIV, BURNABY, BC V5A 1S6, CANADA. UNIV CALIF LOS ANGELES, LOS ANGELES, CA USA. HUNTINGTON NATL BANK, COLUMBUS, OH USA. CALIF STATE UNIV HAYWARD, HAYWARD, CA 94542 USA. SAGINAW VALLEY STATE UNIV, UNIV CTR, MI USA. MILKEN INST, SANTA MONICA, CA USA. UNIV WASHINGTON, SEATTLE, WA 98195 USA. UNIV ARIZONA, TUCSON, AZ 85721 USA. BENTLEY COLL, WALTHAM, MA 02154 USA. AMER PETR INST, WASHINGTON, DC USA. UNIV TEXAS, AUSTIN, TX 78712 USA. NATL UNIV SINGAPORE, SINGAPORE 117548, SINGAPORE. FED RESERVE BANK DALLAS, DALLAS, TX USA. RP ODriscoll, GP (reprint author), CITICORP, CITIBANK, WASHINGTON, DC USA. NR 0 TC 37 Z9 37 U1 1 U2 6 PU WILEY-BLACKWELL PI HOBOKEN PA 111 RIVER ST, HOBOKEN 07030-5774, NJ USA SN 1074-3529 J9 CONTEMP ECON POLICY JI Contemp. Econ. Policy PD JAN PY 1997 VL 15 IS 1 BP 1 EP 20 PG 20 WC Economics; Public Administration SC Business & Economics; Public Administration GA WG109 UT WOS:A1997WG10900001 ER PT J AU Neely, CJ Waller, CJ AF Neely, CJ Waller, CJ TI A benefit-cost analysis of disinflation SO CONTEMPORARY ECONOMIC POLICY LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT 71st Annual Conference of the Western-Economic-Association-International CY JUN 28-JUL 02, 1996 CL SAN FRANCISCO, CA SP W Econ Assoc Int AB This paper contains a benefit-cost analysis of disinflation. The analysis measures the costs of disinflation by ''sacrifice ratios''-the output lost during a disinflation-induced recession. The benefits of disinflation are from recent research that associates lower inflation with higher GDP growth rates. The analysis calculates sacrifice ratios and the growth effects of disinflation and critiques the methods that economists typically use to calculate these benefits and costs. The estimates are quite fragile but nevertheless show that the lost output from a disinflation-induced recession typically will be recouped in 10 to 15 years. C1 INDIANA UNIV, BLOOMINGTON, IN 47405 USA. RP Neely, CJ (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK ST LOUIS, ST LOUIS, MO USA. RI Neely, Christopher/I-5749-2016; Waller, Christopher/I-5755-2016 OI Neely, Christopher/0000-0003-2852-9419; Waller, Christopher/0000-0003-2406-9910 NR 18 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 1 PU WILEY-BLACKWELL PI MALDEN PA COMMERCE PLACE, 350 MAIN ST, MALDEN 02148, MA USA SN 1074-3529 J9 CONTEMP ECON POLICY JI Contemp. Econ. Policy PD JAN PY 1997 VL 15 IS 1 BP 50 EP 64 PG 15 WC Economics; Public Administration SC Business & Economics; Public Administration GA WG109 UT WOS:A1997WG10900004 ER PT B AU Golob, JE AF Golob, JE BE Nau, R Gronn, E Machina, M Bergland, O TI Allais theory offers explanation for equity premium puzzle SO ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL RISK AND UNCERTAINTY: NEW MODELS AND METHODS SE THEORY AND DECISION LIBRARY, SERIES B : MATHEMATICAL AND STATISTICAL METHODS LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT 7th Biannual International Conferences on Foundations and Applications of Utility, Risk, and Decision Theory (FUR VII) - Economic and Environmental Risk and Uncertainty CY JUN 30-JUL 03, 1994 CL OSLO, NORWAY SP Norwegian Sch Management, Cent Bank Norway, Norwegian Trade Council RP Golob, JE (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK,925 GRAND BLVD,KANSAS CITY,MO 64198, USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS BN 0-7923-4556-8 J9 THEO DEC L PY 1997 VL 35 BP 89 EP 108 PG 20 WC Economics; Environmental Studies; Management; Operations Research & Management Science; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Operations Research & Management Science; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA BJ20C UT WOS:A1997BJ20C00006 ER PT J AU Clark, TE AF Clark, TE TI Cross-country evidence on long-run growth and inflation SO ECONOMIC INQUIRY LA English DT Article ID INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE AB While inflation is generally inversely related to growth, I show that estimates of the relationship suffer two robustness problems which plague a variety of model specifications. First, growth-inflation results are highly sensitive to modifications to the country sample, limited from the start to low- and moderate-inflation countries. Second, results are also sensitive to modifications in the time period of analysis. In conjunction with the regression specification sensitivity documented by Levine and Renelt [1992], these results should further discourage the practice of quantifying inflation's effects with cross-country growth regressions. RP Clark, TE (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK,DIV RES,KANSAS CITY,KS, USA. NR 28 TC 22 Z9 22 U1 0 U2 3 PU WESTERN ECONOMIC ASSOC INT PI HUNTINGTON BEACH PA 7400 CENTER AVE SUITE 109, HUNTINGTON BEACH, CA 92647-3039 SN 0095-2583 J9 ECON INQ JI Econ. Inq. PD JAN PY 1997 VL 35 IS 1 BP 70 EP 81 PG 12 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA WG079 UT WOS:A1997WG07900006 ER PT J AU Pecchenino, RA Pollard, PS AF Pecchenino, RA Pollard, PS TI The effects of annuities, bequests, and aging in an overlapping generations model of endogenous growth SO ECONOMIC JOURNAL LA English DT Article ID LONG-RUN GROWTH; SOCIAL-SECURITY; CAPITAL ACCUMULATION; UNCERTAIN LIFETIMES; ADVERSE SELECTION; WELFARE; POLICY; CONSUMPTION; RETIREMENT; MARKETS AB We examine the effects of introducing actuarially fair annuity markers into an overlapping generations model of endogenous growth. The complete annuitisation of agents' wealth is not, in general, dynamically optimal; the degree of annuitisation that is dynamically optimal depends nonmonotonically on the expected length of retirement and on the pay-as-you-go social security tax rate. The government has an incentive to restrict the availability of actuarially fair annuities contracts, and can often move the economy from a pay-as-you-go to a fully-funded social security system via voluntary contributions to a government sponsored, actuarially fair pension today accompanied by reductions in social security taxes tomorrow. C1 FED RESERVE BANK ST LOUIS,ST LOUIS,MO. RP Pecchenino, RA (reprint author), MICHIGAN STATE UNIV,E LANSING,MI 48824, USA. NR 27 TC 22 Z9 22 U1 0 U2 4 PU BLACKWELL PUBL LTD PI OXFORD PA 108 COWLEY RD, OXFORD, OXON, ENGLAND OX4 1JF SN 0013-0133 J9 ECON J JI Econ. J. PD JAN PY 1997 VL 107 IS 440 BP 26 EP 46 DI 10.1111/1468-0297.00140 PG 21 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA WF323 UT WOS:A1997WF32300002 ER PT J AU Burkhauser, RV Crews, AD Daly, MC AF Burkhauser, RV Crews, AD Daly, MC TI Recounting winners and losers in the 1980s: A critique of income distribution measurement methodology SO ECONOMICS LETTERS LA English DT Article DE business cycles; income distribution; inequality AB Studies measuring winners and losers in the 1980s using a cross-over methodology are sensitive to years compared, income-sharing unit chosen and inflation index used. We show these and other studies exaggerate losses by mixing cyclical with cross-cycle differences. C1 SYRACUSE UNIV,CTR POLICY RES,SYRACUSE,NY 13244. FED RESERVE BANK,SAN FRANCISCO,CA. RP Burkhauser, RV (reprint author), SYRACUSE UNIV,CTR POLICY RES,426 EGGERS HALL,SYRACUSE,NY 13244, USA. RI Burkhauser, Richard/G-5403-2015 OI Burkhauser, Richard/0000-0003-4629-0253 NR 11 TC 5 Z9 5 U1 0 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA LAUSANNE PI LAUSANNE PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE, SWITZERLAND SN 0165-1765 J9 ECON LETT JI Econ. Lett. PD JAN PY 1997 VL 54 IS 1 BP 35 EP 40 DI 10.1016/S0165-1765(96)00945-7 PG 6 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA XC567 UT WOS:A1997XC56700006 ER PT J AU DiazGimenez, J Prescott, EC AF DiazGimenez, J Prescott, EC TI Real returns on government debt: A general equilibrium quantitative exploration SO EUROPEAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article DE real returns; liquidity constraints; heterogeneous agents; quantitative general equilibrium ID IN-ADVANCE ECONOMY; INDIVISIBLE LABOR; BUSINESS-CYCLE; INTEREST-RATES; ASSET PRICES; MODEL; MONEY AB We extend and apply computable general equilibrium methods to the study of economies with both aggregate uncertainty and uninsured household-specific uncertainty. In our economies the government issues two types of assets: a small denomination, non-interest bearing asset, which we call currency, and a large denomination, interest bearing asset, which we call T-bills. We find that a real interest rate behavior similar to that observed in the U.S. can be sustained as equilibrium behavior in our class of economies. We also find that policy induced real interest rate changes that are perceived as being permanent have significant real effects and that these effects take a few years to be fully realized. C1 UNIV MINNESOTA,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55455. FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN. RP DiazGimenez, J (reprint author), UNIV CARLOS III MADRID,DEPT ECON,CALLE MADRID 126,E-28903 GETAFE,MADRID,SPAIN. NR 20 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 2 U2 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0014-2921 J9 EUR ECON REV JI Eur. Econ. Rev. PD JAN PY 1997 VL 41 IS 1 BP 115 EP 137 DI 10.1016/0014-2921(95)00028-3 PG 23 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA WE783 UT WOS:A1997WE78300006 ER PT B AU Hausmann, R Meltzer, A Urrutia, M AF Hausmann, R Meltzer, A Urrutia, M BE Gruben, WC Gould, DM Zarazaga, CE TI Central Bank coordination in the midst of exchange rate instability SO EXCHANGE RATES, CAPITAL FLOWS, AND MONETARY POLICY IN A CHANGING WORLD ECONOMY LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Federal-Reserve-Bank-of-Dallas Conference on Exchange Rates, Capital Flows, and Monetary Policy in a Changing World Economy CY SEP 14-15, 1995 CL DALLAS, TX SP Fed Reserve Bank Dallas C1 Fed Reserve Bank Dallas, Dallas, TX USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBLISHERS PI NORWELL PA 101 PHILIP DRIVE, ASSINIPPI PARK, NORWELL, MA 02061 USA BN 0-7923-9908-0 PY 1997 BP 223 EP 242 PG 20 WC Business, Finance; International Relations SC Business & Economics; International Relations GA BL20S UT WOS:000074670600012 ER PT B AU Hassett, KA Hubbard, RG AF Hassett, KA Hubbard, RG BE Auerbach, AJ TI Tax policy and investment SO FISCAL POLICY: LESSONS FROM ECONOMIC RESEARCH LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Fiscal Policy - Lessons from Economic Research CY FEB, 1996 CL BERKELEY, CA SP Univ Calif Berkeley, Robert D Burch Ctr Tax Policy & Public Finance C1 FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. NR 0 TC 12 Z9 12 U1 0 U2 0 PU M I T PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA FIVE CAMBRIDGE CENTER, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 BN 0-262-01160-3 PY 1997 BP 339 EP 400 PG 62 WC Economics; Public Administration SC Business & Economics; Public Administration GA BJ49E UT WOS:A1997BJ49E00008 ER PT J AU Dueker, MJ AF Dueker, MJ TI Markov switching in GARCH processes and mean-reverting stock-market volatility SO JOURNAL OF BUSINESS & ECONOMIC STATISTICS LA English DT Article DE asset-price volatility; conditional heteroscedasticity; kurtosis ID AUTOREGRESSIVE CONDITIONAL HETEROSKEDASTICITY; REGIME; MODEL AB This article introduces four models of conditional heteroscedasticity that contain Markov-switching parameters to examine their multiperiod stock-market volatility forecasts as predictions of options-implied volatilities. The volatility model that best predicts the behaviour of the options-implied volatilities allows the Student-t degrees-of-freedom parameter to switch such that the conditional variance and kurtosis are subject to discrete shifts. The half-life of the most leptokurtic state is estimated to be a week, so expected market volatility to near-normal levels fairly quickly following a spike. RP Dueker, MJ (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK,ST LOUIS,MO 63166, USA. NR 13 TC 100 Z9 100 U1 0 U2 5 PU AMER STATISTICAL ASSOC PI ALEXANDRIA PA 1429 DUKE ST, ALEXANDRIA, VA 22314 SN 0735-0015 J9 J BUS ECON STAT JI J. Bus. Econ. Stat. PD JAN PY 1997 VL 15 IS 1 BP 26 EP 34 DI 10.2307/1392070 PG 9 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods; Statistics & Probability SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences; Mathematics GA WC090 UT WOS:A1997WC09000003 ER PT J AU Diebold, FX Lamb, RL AF Diebold, FX Lamb, RL TI Why are estimates of agricultural supply response so variable? SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMETRICS LA English DT Article DE agricultural supply response; Bayesian estimation; MELO estimation ID MODELS AB Estimates of the response of agricultural supply to movements in expected price display curiously large variation across crops, regions, and time periods. We argue that this anomaly may be traced, at least in part, to the statistical properties of the commonly used econometric estimator, which has infinite moments of all orders and may have a bimodal distribution. We propose an alternative minimum-expected-loss estimator, establish its improved sample properties, and argue for its usefulness in the empirical analysis of agricultural supply response. C1 FED RESERVE BOARD,RES & STAT DIV,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. RP Diebold, FX (reprint author), UNIV PENN,DEPT ECON,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19104, USA. NR 26 TC 9 Z9 9 U1 1 U2 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA LAUSANNE PI LAUSANNE PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE, SWITZERLAND SN 0304-4076 J9 J ECONOMETRICS JI J. Econom. PD JAN-FEB PY 1997 VL 76 IS 1-2 BP 357 EP 373 DI 10.1016/0304-4076(95)01797-6 PG 17 WC Economics; Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA WA507 UT WOS:A1997WA50700018 ER PT J AU Allen, DS AF Allen, DS TI A multi-sector inventory model SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR & ORGANIZATION LA English DT Article DE inventory investment; production; business cycles ID PRODUCTION SMOOTHING HYPOTHESIS; AGGREGATION; SHOCKS AB Two competing paradigms for firm-level inventory behavior are production smoothing and (S,s). Empirical evidence that aggregate production varies more than sales, and inventory investment is positively correlated with sales, appears to contradict the buffer-stock/production-smoothing motivation. Work by Blinder and Maccini suggests that an (S,s) model better explains these stylized facts. I simulate a multi-sector model with sequential interaction of heterogeneous agents (representing manufacturing, wholesale and retail agents) who use either smoothing or (S,s) inventory decision rules. The results demonstrate that the stylized facts can be explained by a model of this type. RP Allen, DS (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK,POB 442,ST LOUIS,MO 63166, USA. NR 24 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 3 U2 6 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0167-2681 J9 J ECON BEHAV ORGAN JI J. Econ. Behav. Organ. PD JAN PY 1997 VL 32 IS 1 BP 55 EP 87 DI 10.1016/S0167-2681(96)00019-4 PG 33 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA XC945 UT WOS:A1997XC94500004 ER PT J AU Krusell, P Quadrini, V RiosRull, JV AF Krusell, P Quadrini, V RiosRull, JV TI Politico-economic equilibrium and economic growth SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS & CONTROL LA English DT Article DE political economy; economic growth; wealth distribution ID ENDOGENOUS GROWTH; INCOME; INEQUALITY; POLICY; PLANS; DEBT AB We propose a notion of dynamic politico-economic equilibrium which builds on two key assumptions: policies are determined sequentially, and agents are fully rational in their roles as both consumers and voters, We examine a simple model of endogenous growth and infinitely-lived agents, where taxes on income are endogenous and where growth critically depends on the initial distribution of asset holdings. We relate our equilibrium definition and results to existing literature on time consistency and on political economy and growth. We show that our equilibria are time-consistent and we argue that the choice of equilibrium concept might have important quantitative implications. C1 FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,RES DEPT,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55480. UNIV ROCHESTER,DEPT ECON,ROCHESTER,NY 14627. UNIV PENN,DEPT ECON,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19104. NR 25 TC 63 Z9 63 U1 0 U2 6 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0165-1889 J9 J ECON DYN CONTROL JI J. Econ. Dyn. Control PD JAN PY 1997 VL 21 IS 1 BP 243 EP 272 DI 10.1016/0165-1889(95)00931-0 PG 30 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA WE069 UT WOS:A1997WE06900008 ER PT J AU SchmittGrohe, S AF SchmittGrohe, S TI Comparing four models of aggregate fluctuations due to self-fulfilling expectations SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY LA English DT Article ID MONOPOLISTIC COMPETITION; INCREASING RETURNS; BUSINESS CYCLES; DEMAND AB This paper compares four equilibrium business cycle models with increasing returns to scale production technologies that allow for aggregate fluctuations due to self-fulfilling expectations. Necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of stationary sunspot equilibria are derived. Numerical examples demonstrate that the degree of increasing returns necessary for the existence of stationary sunspot equilibria lies in the upper range of available empirical estimates. The paper also shows that persistent fluctuations are not a necessary property of these four models when the only source of fluctuations is changes in people's expectations about the future path of the economy. (C) 1997 Academic Press. RP SchmittGrohe, S (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 22 TC 49 Z9 49 U1 0 U2 1 PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC JNL-COMP SUBSCRIPTIONS PI SAN DIEGO PA 525 B ST, STE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 SN 0022-0531 J9 J ECON THEORY JI J. Econ. Theory PD JAN PY 1997 VL 72 IS 1 BP 96 EP 147 DI 10.1006/jeth.1996.2195 PG 52 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA WF457 UT WOS:A1997WF45700004 ER PT B AU Greenspan, A AF Greenspan, A GP FED RESERVE BANK KANSAS CITY FED RESERVE BANK KANSAS CITY TI Opening remarks SO MAINTAINING FINANCIAL STABILITY IN A GLOBAL ECONOMY SE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY SYMPOSIUM SERIES LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Symposium on Maintaining Financial Stability in a Global Economy CY AUG 28-30, 1997 CL JACKSON HOLE, WY SP Fed Reserve Bank Kansas City C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK KANSAS CITY PI KANSAS CITY PA 925 GRAND AVE, KANSAS CITY, MO 64198 USA J9 FED BANK KS PY 1997 BP 1 EP 6 PG 6 WC Business, Finance; Economics; International Relations SC Business & Economics; International Relations GA BN07W UT WOS:000080604700001 ER PT J AU Gong, FX Remolona, EM AF Gong, FX Remolona, EM TI Two factors along the yield curve SO MANCHESTER SCHOOL OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL STUDIES LA English DT Article ID TERM INTEREST-RATE; EQUILIBRIUM-MODEL; CONTINGENT CLAIMS; FUTURE INFLATION; INFORMATION; INGERSOLL; COX AB Are all two-factor term structure models the same? We specify three models and estimate each on different parts of the U.S. yield curve. The exercise provides insights on reconciling the term structure's time series with its cross-section and on relating it to fundamentals. Our evidence favours models where one factor reverts to a time-varying mean. One such model explains shorter-term yields and another longer-term yields. The models differ primarily because mean reversion is much faster near the yield curve's short end than near its long end. The factors seem to capture mean reversion in inflation and the Fed's target rate. RP Gong, FX (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,NEW YORK,NY 10045, USA. NR 44 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 1 U2 2 PU BLACKWELL PUBL LTD PI OXFORD PA 108 COWLEY RD, OXFORD, OXON, ENGLAND OX4 1JF SN 0025-2034 J9 MANCH SCH ECON SOC JI Manch. Sch. Econ. Soc. Stud. PY 1997 VL 65 SU S BP 1 EP 31 DI 10.1111/1467-9957.65.s.1 PG 31 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA XJ362 UT WOS:A1997XJ36200001 ER PT S AU Goodfriend, M King, RG AF Goodfriend, M King, RG BE Bernanke, BS Rotemberg, JJ TI The new neoclassical synthesis and the role of monetary policy SO NBER MACROECONOMICS ANNUAL 1997 SE NBER MACROECONOMICS ANNUAL LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997 Conference CY APR 04-05, 1997 CL CAMBRIDGE, MASSACHUSETTS SP Natl Bur Econ Res ID REAL BUSINESS-CYCLE; RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS; UNITED-STATES; PRICE; MONEY; INFLATION; DYNAMICS; OUTPUT; MODEL AB Macroeconomics is moving toward a New Neoclassical Synthesis, which like the synthesis of the 1960s melds classical with Keynesian ideas. This paper describes the key features of the new synthesis and its implications for the role of monetary policy. We find that the New Neoclassical Synthesis rationalizes an activist monetary policy, which is a simple system of inflation targets. Under this "neutral" monetary policy, real quantities evolve as suggested in the literature on real business cycles. Going beyond broad principles, we use the new synthesis to address several operational aspects of inflation targeting. These include its practicality, the response to oil shocks, the choice of price index, the design of a mandate, and the tactics of interest rate policy. C1 Fed Reserve Bank, Richmond, VA 23219 USA. Univ Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22903 USA. NBER, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. RP Goodfriend, M (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank, Richmond, VA 23219 USA. NR 62 TC 299 Z9 311 U1 2 U2 12 PU M I T PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA FIVE CAMBRIDGE CENTER, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 USA SN 0889-3365 BN 0-262-52242-X J9 NBER MACROECON ANN PY 1997 VL 12 BP 231 EP + DI 10.2307/3585232 PG 54 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA BK28B UT WOS:000071665400013 ER PT S AU McGrattan, E AF McGrattan, E BE Bernanke, BS Rotemberg, JJ TI The new neoclassical synthesis and the role of monetary policy - Comment SO NBER MACROECONOMICS ANNUAL 1997 SE NBER MACROECONOMICS ANNUAL LA English DT Editorial Material CT NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997 Conference CY APR 04-05, 1997 CL CAMBRIDGE, MASSACHUSETTS SP Natl Bur Econ Res ID AGGREGATE C1 Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Minneapolis, MN 55480 USA. RP McGrattan, E (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Minneapolis, MN 55480 USA. NR 7 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 2 U2 2 PU M I T PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA FIVE CAMBRIDGE CENTER, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 USA SN 0889-3365 BN 0-262-52242-X J9 NBER MACROECON ANN PY 1997 VL 12 BP 283 EP 289 DI 10.2307/3585233 PG 7 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA BK28B UT WOS:000071665400014 ER PT S AU Fuhrer, J AF Fuhrer, J BE Bernanke, BS Rotemberg, JJ TI An optimization-based econometric framework for the evaluation of monetary policy - Comment SO NBER MACROECONOMICS ANNUAL 1997 SE NBER MACROECONOMICS ANNUAL LA English DT Editorial Material CT NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997 Conference CY APR 04-05, 1997 CL CAMBRIDGE, MASSACHUSETTS SP Natl Bur Econ Res C1 Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. RP Fuhrer, J (reprint author), Fed Reserve Bank Boston, Boston, MA 02210 USA. RI Fuhrer, Jeff/F-8852-2013 NR 4 TC 5 Z9 5 U1 0 U2 1 PU M I T PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA FIVE CAMBRIDGE CENTER, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 USA SN 0889-3365 BN 0-262-52242-X J9 NBER MACROECON ANN PY 1997 VL 12 BP 346 EP 355 DI 10.2307/3585237 PG 10 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA BK28B UT WOS:000071665400017 ER PT J AU Triest, RK AF Triest, RK TI Regional differences in family poverty SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article AB Poverty rates vary considerably over regions, as do the demographic characteristics of the poor, but why the extent of poverty varies as much as it does across different regions of the country is not fully understood. This is an unfortunate gap in our knowledge, since it is difficult to analyze how recent changes in federal antipoverty policy will affect the regional distribution of poverty without a better understanding of current regional differences in the poverty rate. The main goal of this article is to shed some Light on why poverty rates vary as much as they do in different areas. The analysis shows that much of the regional variation in poverty rates can be accounted for by differences across regions in the distribution of potential family earnings: what families could be expected to earn if all their adult members worked full-time, relative to the poverty threshold for the family. Other factors, such as unemployment and whether the family recently immigrated to the United States, also are important in determining the poverty status of individual families, but play a somewhat smaller role than earnings capacity in explaining regional differences in poverty rates. RP Triest, RK (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02210, USA. NR 16 TC 7 Z9 7 U1 0 U2 2 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD JAN-FEB PY 1997 BP 3 EP & PG 16 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA WJ452 UT WOS:A1997WJ45200001 ER PT J AU Fuhrer, JC AF Fuhrer, JC TI Central bank independence and inflation targeting: Monetary policy paradigms for the next millennium? SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article AB An expanding body of literature holds two truths about monetary policy to be self-evident: Effective central banks must be independent from undue political interference, and they would do well to target the rate of inflation directly. The genesis of this literature may be found in the concern about the effective use of the significant power wielded by central banks around the world, and in the response to a pivotal and turbulent period in economic history. The marked rise in the level and variability of inflation following the oil price surges of the 1970s led many to question the Fed's and other central banks' commitment to a low and stable inflation rate. This article takes a critical look at the theory of inherent inflationary bias and the proposed solutions to the bias, focusing particularly on mechanisms for ensuring central bank independence and on inflation targeting. It then examines the robustness of the empirical results that are often used to support the validity of the solutions. RP Fuhrer, JC (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON, BOSTON, MA 02210 USA. RI Fuhrer, Jeff/F-8852-2013 NR 21 TC 22 Z9 23 U1 0 U2 3 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 USA SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD JAN-FEB PY 1997 BP 19 EP + PG 0 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA WJ452 UT WOS:A1997WJ45200002 ER PT J AU Peek, J Rosengren, ES AF Peek, J Rosengren, ES TI Have borrower concentration limits encouraged bank consolidation? SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article AB Bank consolidation has been going on for more than a decade, in part the result of legislative and regulatory changes and in part a reflection of the large number of banks that became financially troubled in the late 1980s and early 1990s. However, the rapid consolidation of institutions still continues, even though the health of most banks has improved and many states long ago Liberalized regulations on intrastate branching and interstate merging. This suggests that other factors may also be playing an important role. The large number of mergers involving target banks with assets under $100 million and the preponderance of mergers where both target and acquirer are small banks suggest that some of the merger activity may be an attempt to overcome Limitations imposed by small size, such as borrower concentration limits. The fastest-growing segment of the lending market is loans over $1 million, and borrower concentration Limits prevent the smallest banks from servicing such loans. This article examines motivations for bank mergers and their regional patterns, and then considers the outlook for further bank consolidation. C1 FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02210. RP Peek, J (reprint author), BOSTON COLL,CHESTNUT HILL,MA 02167, USA. NR 10 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 1 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD JAN-FEB PY 1997 BP 37 EP & PG 12 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA WJ452 UT WOS:A1997WJ45200003 ER PT J AU Tootell, GMB AF Tootell, GMB TI How farsighted is the FOMC? SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article AB The most difficult problem facing monetary policymakers results from the long and variable lags in monetary policy's impact on the economy. The full effect of an interest rate change today is not realized for several quarters, so monetary policymakers must be forward-looking. Yet, it is difficult enough to interpret how the economy is doing now, let alone forecast how it will be performing one year hence. This uncertainty hinders the ability of policymakers to offset future fluctuations with current actions. Even so, the lags leave central bankers no choice but to react to their expectations about the future. This article examines the extent to which the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reacts to forward-looking data. It is shown that the FOMC does look into the future, basing its decisions on expectations about the economy at least as far as a year away. The effects of forecast uncertainty on the farsightedness of the FOMC are also analyzed. It is found that the FOMC's reaction depends on the relative uncertainty across forecast horizons, which can change over time. RP Tootell, GMB (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02210, USA. NR 11 TC 6 Z9 6 U1 0 U2 1 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD JAN-FEB PY 1997 BP 49 EP & PG 18 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA WJ452 UT WOS:A1997WJ45200004 ER PT B AU Hogarth, JM O'Donnell, KH AF Hogarth, JM O'Donnell, KH BE Xiao, JJ TI Being accountable: A descriptive study of unbanked households in the US SO PROCEEDINGS OF THE ASSOCIATION FOR FINANCIAL COUNSELING AND PLANNING EDUCATION LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Annual Conference of the Association-for-Financial-Counseling-and-Planning-Education CY DEC 17-20, 1997 CL SAN DIEGO, CA SP Assoc Financial Counseling & Planning Educ AB With the advent of EFT99, all recurring federal benefit payments will be made via electronic funds transfer. Some of the 12 million unbanked households will be affected by this program. In order to determine the impacts of banking the unbanked, we use the 1995 Survey of Consumer Finances to explore several definitions of being unbanked, develop a profile of unbanked households, and analyze reasons for not having a checking account. Implications for educators, counselors and researchers are presented. C1 Fed Reserve Board, Washington, DC 20551 USA. Fed Reserve Board, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 15 TC 5 Z9 8 U1 0 U2 1 PU ASSOC FINANCIAL COUNSELING PLANNING EDUC PI UPPER ARLINGTON PA 2121 ARLINGTON AVE NO 5, UPPER ARLINGTON, OH 43221 USA PY 1997 BP 58 EP 67 PG 10 WC Business, Finance; Education & Educational Research SC Business & Economics; Education & Educational Research GA BV20E UT WOS:000178145300020 ER PT B AU Taubman, SB Kelly, D AF Taubman, SB Kelly, D GP SAS USERS GRP INT SAS USERS GRP INT SAS USERS GRP INT TI Creating UNIX Network usage charts and displaying them on an intranet SO PROCEEDINGS OF THE TWENTY-SECOND ANNUAL SAS USERS GROUP INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT 22nd Annual SAS Users Group International Conference (SUGI 22) CY MAR 16-19, 1997 CL SAN DIEGO, CA SP SAS Users Grp Int AB Our UNIX Network consists of several sub-area networks (SANs) which are linked together via a common backbone. This paper will describe how we produce charts which display how the computing resources of each SAN are being used. We display the mean and 90th percentile for five measurements of computer usage. The charts are created as gif files and displayed on the Federal Re se Ne Board's local intranet using HTML programs and the Netscape Web Browser. All work was done an the Sun Solan's 2 operating system using SAS Release 6.11. BASE SAS and SAS/GRAPH as well as the SAS macro facility were used. The raw data is obtained from software supplied by Sun Microsystems. A novice SAS user should understand this paper. C1 Fed Reserve Board, Washington, DC USA. RP Taubman, SB (reprint author), Fed Reserve Board, Washington, DC USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU SAS INST INC PI CARY PA SAS CIRCLE, PO BOX 8000, CARY, NC 27511 USA BN 1-55544-961-1 PY 1997 BP 1014 EP 1017 PG 4 WC Computer Science, Software Engineering SC Computer Science GA BK10B UT WOS:000071189600168 ER PT B AU Mishkin, FS AF Mishkin, FS BE Kaufman, GG TI Evaluating FDICIA SO RESEARCH IN FINANCIAL SERVICES: PRIVATE AND PUBLIC POLICY, VOL 9, 1997: FDICIA: BANK REFORM FIVE YEARS LATER AND FIVE YEARS AHEAD SE RESEARCH IN FINANCIAL SERVICES: PRIVATE AND PUBLIC POLICY LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Conference on FDICIA - Bank Reform Five Years Later and Five Years Ahead CY DEC 19, 1996 CL BROOKINGS INST, WASHINGTON, DC SP Brookings Inst, Chicago Clearing House Assoc HO BROOKINGS INST C1 FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,NEW YORK,NY 10045. NR 0 TC 5 Z9 5 U1 0 U2 0 PU JAI PRESS INC PI GREENWICH PA 55 OLD POST ROAD, NO 2, GREENWICH, CT 06836 BN 0-7623-0301-8 J9 RES FIN SERV PY 1997 VL 9 BP 17 EP 33 PG 17 WC Business, Finance; Public Administration SC Business & Economics; Public Administration GA BJ55R UT WOS:A1997BJ55R00004 ER PT B AU Rivlin, AM AF Rivlin, AM BE Kaufman, GG TI Optimal supervision and regulation of banks SO RESEARCH IN FINANCIAL SERVICES: PRIVATE AND PUBLIC POLICY, VOL 9, 1997: FDICIA: BANK REFORM FIVE YEARS LATER AND FIVE YEARS AHEAD SE RESEARCH IN FINANCIAL SERVICES: PRIVATE AND PUBLIC POLICY LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Conference on FDICIA - Bank Reform Five Years Later and Five Years Ahead CY DEC 19, 1996 CL BROOKINGS INST, WASHINGTON, DC SP Brookings Inst, Chicago Clearing House Assoc HO BROOKINGS INST C1 FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU JAI PRESS INC PI GREENWICH PA 55 OLD POST ROAD, NO 2, GREENWICH, CT 06836 BN 0-7623-0301-8 J9 RES FIN SERV PY 1997 VL 9 BP 133 EP 140 PG 8 WC Business, Finance; Public Administration SC Business & Economics; Public Administration GA BJ55R UT WOS:A1997BJ55R00011 ER PT B AU McCurdy, CJ AF McCurdy, CJ BE Kaufman, GG TI Central banks' approach to dealing with settlement risk in foreign exchange transactions SO RESEARCH IN FINANCIAL SERVICES: PRIVATE AND PUBLIC POLICY, VOL 9, 1997: FDICIA: BANK REFORM FIVE YEARS LATER AND FIVE YEARS AHEAD SE RESEARCH IN FINANCIAL SERVICES: PRIVATE AND PUBLIC POLICY LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Conference on FDICIA - Bank Reform Five Years Later and Five Years Ahead CY DEC 19, 1996 CL BROOKINGS INST, WASHINGTON, DC SP Brookings Inst, Chicago Clearing House Assoc HO BROOKINGS INST C1 FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,NEW YORK,NY 10045. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU JAI PRESS INC PI GREENWICH PA 55 OLD POST ROAD, NO 2, GREENWICH, CT 06836 BN 0-7623-0301-8 J9 RES FIN SERV PY 1997 VL 9 BP 143 EP 147 PG 5 WC Business, Finance; Public Administration SC Business & Economics; Public Administration GA BJ55R UT WOS:A1997BJ55R00012 ER PT B AU Eisenbeis, RA AF Eisenbeis, RA BE Kaufman, GG TI International settlements: A new source of systemic risk? SO RESEARCH IN FINANCIAL SERVICES: PRIVATE AND PUBLIC POLICY, VOL 9, 1997: FDICIA: BANK REFORM FIVE YEARS LATER AND FIVE YEARS AHEAD SE RESEARCH IN FINANCIAL SERVICES: PRIVATE AND PUBLIC POLICY LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Conference on FDICIA - Bank Reform Five Years Later and Five Years Ahead CY DEC 19, 1996 CL BROOKINGS INST, WASHINGTON, DC SP Brookings Inst, Chicago Clearing House Assoc HO BROOKINGS INST C1 FED RESERVE BANK ATLANTA,ATLANTA,GA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU JAI PRESS INC PI GREENWICH PA 55 OLD POST ROAD, NO 2, GREENWICH, CT 06836 BN 0-7623-0301-8 J9 RES FIN SERV PY 1997 VL 9 BP 149 EP 157 PG 9 WC Business, Finance; Public Administration SC Business & Economics; Public Administration GA BJ55R UT WOS:A1997BJ55R00013 ER PT J AU Copelman, M Werner, AM AF Copelman, M Werner, AM TI The transmission mechanism of monetary policy in Mexico SO TRIMESTRE ECONOMICO LA Spanish DT Article ID MONEY AB An important question in macroeconomics has been how the transmission mechanism of monetary policy works. In particular, the question of whether there exists a credit channel for the transmission of monetary policy has been one of the central themes in the discussion of the effectiveness of monetary policy. If this channel exists, then shocks to cr edit markets, particularly to bank loans, can have real effects. This paper presents new evidence on the credit hypothesis for the case of Mexico after 1984. We present a simple valiant of the open economy IS-LM model which includes a credit channel. The model has the following empirical implications which are absent from models which do not include a credit channel. We show that changes in the expectations of devaluation, the desired cash/deposit ratio, and measures of financial deregulation, will have real effects because they change the quantity of credit available in the economy. We explore these implications of the model through standard VAR techniques and find that the evidence strongly supports the credit view. We find that the impact on economic activity of credit and nominal depreciation rate shocks is very significant. C1 INT MONETARY FUND,DEPT INVEST,WASHINGTON,DC 20431. RP Copelman, M (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD,DIV INT FINANCE,WASHINGTON,DC, USA. NR 18 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 1 PU FONDO CULTURA ECONOMICA PI TLALPAN PA AVE PICACHO AJUSCO, NO 227, TLALPAN CP 14200, MEXICO SN 0041-3011 J9 TRIMEST ECON JI Trimest. Econ. PD JAN-MAR PY 1997 VL 64 IS 253 BP 75 EP 104 PG 30 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA WM356 UT WOS:A1997WM35600003 ER PT J AU Saeger, SS AF Saeger, SS TI Globalization and deindustrialization: Myth and reality in the OECD SO WELTWIRTSCHAFTLICHES ARCHIV-REVIEW OF WORLD ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID HETEROSKEDASTICITY; TRADE AB Has global integration adversely impacted workers in the US and Europe? The expansion of trade and other linkages with the South has been blamed for a multitude of ills in the North, including the contraction of manufacturing employment. Utilizing panel data for OECD countries, this paper examines the relationship between "deindustrialization" and differential productivity growth, Dutch disease, human capital accumulation and trade flows. Empirical results indicate there is a statistically and economically significant link between imports from the South and the manufacturing share of employment and real value added, even after controlling for other plausible causes of deindustrialization. C1 US Dept Treasury, Off Assistant Secretary Int Affairs, Washington, DC 20220 USA. Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Div Int Finance, Washington, DC 20551 USA. RP Saeger, SS (reprint author), US Dept Treasury, Off Assistant Secretary Int Affairs, 1500 Penn Ave NW,Room 3425, Washington, DC 20220 USA. NR 44 TC 18 Z9 18 U1 1 U2 8 PU J C B MOHR PI TUBINGEN PA POSTFACH 2040, W-7400 TUBINGEN, GERMANY SN 0043-2636 J9 WELTWIRTSCH ARCH JI Weltwirtsch. Arch.-Rev. World Econ. PY 1997 VL 133 IS 4 BP 579 EP 608 DI 10.1007/BF02707404 PG 30 WC Economics; International Relations SC Business & Economics; International Relations GA YW653 UT WOS:000071959100002 ER PT J AU Engel, C Rogers, JH AF Engel, C Rogers, JH TI How wide is the border? SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID REAL EXCHANGE-RATES; PRICING-TO-MARKET; RATE PASS-THROUGH; PRICES; HYSTERESIS AB We use CPI data for U.S. and Canadian cities for 14 categories of consumer prices to examine the nature of the deviations from the law of one price. The distance between cities explains a significant amount of the variation in the prices of similar goods in different cities. Bur the variation of the price is much higher for two cities located in different countries than for two equidistant cities in the same country. We explore some of the reasons for this finding. Sticky nominal prices appear to be one explanation but probably do not explain most of the border effect. C1 NATL BUR ECON RES,WASHINGTON,DC. FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,DIV INT FINANCE,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. RP Engel, C (reprint author), UNIV WASHINGTON,DEPT ECON,SEATTLE,WA 98195, USA. NR 22 TC 324 Z9 337 U1 2 U2 17 PU AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY, STE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD DEC PY 1996 VL 86 IS 5 BP 1112 EP 1125 PG 14 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA WA765 UT WOS:A1996WA76500004 ER PT J AU Waller, CJ Walsh, CE AF Waller, CJ Walsh, CE TI Central-bank independence, economic behavior, and optimal term lengths SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID MONETARY-POLICY; INFLATION; POLITICS; MODEL AB We parameterize central-bank independence in terms of partisanship and term length, and we focus on the implications of alternative policy structures for real economic activity. While long terms of office for the central banker can reduce the role of electoral surprises, term lengths that are too long are costly if societal preferences are subject to permanent shifts. The appointment of a conservative central banker increases the optimal term length and leads to lower average inflation but need not increase the volatility of output. C1 UNIV CALIF SANTA CRUZ,DEPT ECON,SANTA CRUZ,CA 95064. FED RESERVE BANK,RES DEPT,SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94105. RP Waller, CJ (reprint author), INDIANA UNIV,DEPT ECON,BALLANTINE HALL 901,BLOOMINGTON,IN 47405, USA. RI Waller, Christopher/I-5755-2016 OI Waller, Christopher/0000-0003-2406-9910 NR 34 TC 31 Z9 31 U1 0 U2 4 PU AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY, STE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD DEC PY 1996 VL 86 IS 5 BP 1139 EP 1153 PG 15 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA WA765 UT WOS:A1996WA76500006 ER PT J AU Burnside, C Eichenbaum, M AF Burnside, C Eichenbaum, M TI Factor-hoarding and the propagation of business-cycle shocks SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID INDIVISIBLE LABOR; FLUCTUATIONS; INVESTMENT; CAPACITY AB This paper analyzes the role of variable capital-utilization rates in propagating shocks over the business cycle. The model on which our analysis is based treats variable capital-utilization rates as a form of factor-hoarding. We argue that variable capital-utilization rates are a quantitatively important source of propagation to business-cycle shocks. With this additional source of propagation, the volatility of exogenous technology shocks needed to explain the observed variability in aggregate U.S. output is significantly reduced relative to standard real-business-cycle models. C1 NORTHWESTERN UNIV,DEPT ECON,EVANSTON,IL 60208. FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,CHICAGO,IL. NATL BUR ECON RES,CHICAGO,IL. RP Burnside, C (reprint author), WORLD BANK,1818 H ST NW,WASHINGTON,DC 20433, USA. NR 22 TC 124 Z9 126 U1 0 U2 6 PU AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY, STE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD DEC PY 1996 VL 86 IS 5 BP 1154 EP 1174 PG 21 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA WA765 UT WOS:A1996WA76500007 ER PT J AU Antzoulatos, AA AF Antzoulatos, AA TI Consumer credit and consumption forecasts SO INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING LA English DT Article DE borrowing constraints; consumption; forecasts ID INCOME; CONSTRAINTS AB Recent advances in the theory of consumer behavior indicate that consumption may exhibit non-linear dynamics characterized by occasional surges. Building upon them, and taking explicitly into account the forward-looking nature of consumption, this paper argues that rising consumer debt can signal such surges, as well as the consumption underprediction which will occur if they are not taken sufficiently into account in forecasting. This insight is tested with and strongly confirmed by the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Developments forecasts for the USA. The results should be of interest not only to professional forecasters and policy-makers, but also to theoretical economists and econometricians who study non-linear dynamic models. RP Antzoulatos, AA (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,INT RES DEPT,33 LIBERTY ST,NEW YORK,NY 10045, USA. NR 14 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 1 U2 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0169-2070 J9 INT J FORECASTING JI Int. J. Forecast. PD DEC PY 1996 VL 12 IS 4 BP 439 EP 453 DI 10.1016/S0169-2070(96)00687-5 PG 15 WC Economics; Management SC Business & Economics GA WA883 UT WOS:A1996WA88300001 ER PT J AU Christou, C Swamy, PAVB Tavlas, GS AF Christou, C Swamy, PAVB Tavlas, GS TI Modelling optimal strategies for the allocation of wealth in multicurrency investments SO INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING LA English DT Article DE ARCH models; random coefficient models; forecasting; optimal portfolios ID EXCHANGE-RATE MODELS; MONEY DEMAND; ARCH MODEL; COEFFICIENTS; INFLATION; VARIANCE; SAMPLE AB This paper analyzes rates of return on financial assets denominated in five major currencies and provides a framework for the determination of optimal strategies for the allocation of wealth in multicurrency investments. Three models are estimated: a univariate autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) model, an extended ARCH model using the random coefficient (RC) procedure, and a pure RC model. A comparison of the forecasts of these models with those generated by a random walk model demonstrates that forecasts based on the RC/extended ARCH procedure are superior to those based on the random walk model and those based on direct ARCH estimation. These results could be useful for both international investors for the allocation of their wealth among fixed-income investment securities and central banks for the management of their external reserve assets. C1 INT MONETARY FUND, WASHINGTON, DC 20431 USA. FED RESERVE BOARD, WASHINGTON, DC 20219 USA. OFF COMPTROLLER CURRENCY, BANK RES DIV, WASHINGTON, DC 20219 USA. NR 24 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0169-2070 J9 INT J FORECASTING JI Int. J. Forecast. PD DEC PY 1996 VL 12 IS 4 BP 483 EP 493 DI 10.1016/S0169-2070(96)00673-5 PG 11 WC Economics; Management SC Business & Economics GA WA883 UT WOS:A1996WA88300005 ER PT J AU Stevens, GVG AF Stevens, GVG TI Economics, econometric and the LINK - Dutta,M SO INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING LA English DT Book Review RP Stevens, GVG (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0169-2070 J9 INT J FORECASTING JI Int. J. Forecast. PD DEC PY 1996 VL 12 IS 4 BP 562 EP 564 DI 10.1016/S0169-2070(96)00705-4 PG 3 WC Economics; Management SC Business & Economics GA WA883 UT WOS:A1996WA88300016 ER PT J AU Brunner, AD Kamin, SB AF Brunner, AD Kamin, SB TI Determinants of the 1991-1993 Japanese recession: Evidence from a structural model of the Japanese economy SO JAPAN AND THE WORLD ECONOMY LA English DT Article DE Japan; economic fluctuations; economic recession; structural model ID PERMANENT INCOME HYPOTHESIS; UNITED-STATES; STOCK-PRICES; COINTEGRATION; CONSUMPTION; LAND AB The objectives of this paper are to determine the extent to which various factors contributed to the most recent recession in Japan and to assess whether the recent behavior of the Japanese economy differs from that in previous recessions. Toward that end, we develop a small, structural macroeconometric model of the Japanese economy and estimate it using data from 1971 Q1 to 1991 Q1, the period just prior to the recent downturn, The important results can be summarized as follows. First, the severity of the recent recession probably does not reflect structural economic changes. Second, the poor economic performance in 1991-1993 period was to some extent predictable, reflecting the unwinding of imbalances that developed during the preceding expansion. Finally, unpredictable movements in exchange rates, land prices, and stock prices occurring after 1991 played an important, but not predominant, part in accentuating the downturn, while unusually stimulative fiscal and monetary policies appear to have contributed substantially to GDP during the recession. RP Brunner, AD (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,DIV INT FINANCE,MAIL STOP 42,20TH & C ST,NW,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 34 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0922-1425 J9 JPN WORLD ECON JI Jpn. World Econ. PD DEC PY 1996 VL 8 IS 4 BP 363 EP 399 DI 10.1016/0922-1425(96)00208-3 PG 37 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA VU034 UT WOS:A1996VU03400001 ER PT J AU Lown, C Peristiani, S AF Lown, C Peristiani, S TI The behavior of consumer loan rates during the 1990 credit slowdown SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article DE lending behavior; credit crunch; BIS capital requirements; consumer loan rates AB This study re-examines the 1990 credit slowdown by investigating the loan pricing behavior of commercial banks. We find strong evidence that large, undercapitalized banks contributed to the credit slowdown by charging consumers a higher-than-average loan rate relative to Detter-capitalized institutions. This disparity in lending exists even after accounting for bank funding costs. Thus, we argue that there was a lending slowdown that occurred among large, undercapitalized banks. The reluctance to lend among undercapitalized banks is at least suggestive of behavior that is consistent with a credit crunch. C1 FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK, NEW YORK, NY 10045 USA. NR 27 TC 12 Z9 12 U1 1 U2 10 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD DEC PY 1996 VL 20 IS 10 BP 1673 EP 1694 DI 10.1016/S0378-4266(96)00017-9 PG 22 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA VX796 UT WOS:A1996VX79600003 ER PT J AU Rolnick, AJ Velde, FR Weber, WE AF Rolnick, AJ Velde, FR Weber, WE TI The debasement puzzle: An essay on medieval monetary history SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC HISTORY LA English DT Article ID FRANCE; MONEY AB We establish several facts about medieval monetary debasements: they were followed by unusually large minting volumes and by increased seigniorage; old and new coins circulated concurrently; and, at least some of the time, coins were valued by weight. These facts constitute a puzzle because debasements provide no additional inducements to bring coins to the mint. On theoretical and empirical grounds, we reject explanations based on by-tale circulation, nominal contracts, and sluggish price adjustment. We conclude that debasements pose a challenge to monetary economics. C1 JOHNS HOPKINS UNIV,DEPT ECON,BALTIMORE,MD 21218. UNIV MINNESOTA,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55480. RP Rolnick, AJ (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,250 MARQUETTE AVE,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55408, USA. NR 44 TC 12 Z9 12 U1 0 U2 5 PU CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS PI NEW YORK PA 40 WEST 20TH STREET, NEW YORK, NY 10011-4211 SN 0022-0507 J9 J ECON HIST JI J. Econ. Hist. PD DEC PY 1996 VL 56 IS 4 BP 789 EP 808 PG 20 WC Economics; History; History Of Social Sciences SC Business & Economics; History; Social Sciences - Other Topics GA VZ053 UT WOS:A1996VZ05300002 ER PT J AU Hanes, C AF Hanes, C TI Changes in the cyclical behavior of real wage rates, 1870-1990 SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC HISTORY LA English DT Article ID GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT; BUSINESS CYCLES; STABILIZATION; EMPLOYMENT; PRICE AB A modern household's consumption bundle is more finished than that of a typical worker in the past: the average consumption good passes through more stages of production before purchase. This has affected the cyclical behavior of wages relative to the price of the consumption bundle because wages are more procyclical relative to prices of more-finished goods. Nowadays real consumption wages are procyclical. They were less procyclical before the Second World War, and they may have been acyclical or even countercyclical before the First World War. RP Hanes, C (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,20TH & C ST NW,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 63 TC 22 Z9 22 U1 0 U2 5 PU CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS PI NEW YORK PA 40 WEST 20TH STREET, NEW YORK, NY 10011-4211 SN 0022-0507 J9 J ECON HIST JI J. Econ. Hist. PD DEC PY 1996 VL 56 IS 4 BP 837 EP 861 PG 25 WC Economics; History; History Of Social Sciences SC Business & Economics; History; Social Sciences - Other Topics GA VZ053 UT WOS:A1996VZ05300004 ER PT J AU Goodfriend, M AF Goodfriend, M TI The future of central banking: The tercentenary symposium of the Bank of England - Capie,F, Goodhart,C, Fischer,S, Schnadt,N SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC LITERATURE LA English DT Book Review RP Goodfriend, M (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK RICHMOND,701 E BYRD ST,RICHMOND,VA 23219, USA. NR 2 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY, STE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0022-0515 J9 J ECON LIT JI J. Econ. Lit. PD DEC PY 1996 VL 34 IS 4 BP 1963 EP 1965 PG 3 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA VY452 UT WOS:A1996VY45200020 ER PT J AU Humpage, OF AF Humpage, OF TI Russian currency and finance: A currency board approach to reform - Hanke,SH, Jonung,L, Schuler,K SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC LITERATURE LA English DT Book Review RP Humpage, OF (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,CLEVELAND,OH 44114, USA. NR 3 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY, STE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0022-0515 J9 J ECON LIT JI J. Econ. Lit. PD DEC PY 1996 VL 34 IS 4 BP 1994 EP 1996 PG 3 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA VY452 UT WOS:A1996VY45200040 ER PT J AU Kydland, FE Prescott, EC AF Kydland, FE Prescott, EC TI The computational experiment: An econometric tool SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES LA English DT Article ID REAL-BUSINESS-CYCLE; AGGREGATE FLUCTUATIONS; INDIVISIBLE LABOR; EQUILIBRIUM; TAX; INFLATION; TIME C1 FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND, CLEVELAND, OH 44114 USA. UNIV MINNESOTA, MINNEAPOLIS, MN 55455 USA. FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS, MINNEAPOLIS, MN USA. RP Kydland, FE (reprint author), CARNEGIE MELLON UNIV, PITTSBURGH, PA 15213 USA. NR 49 TC 104 Z9 108 U1 3 U2 19 PU AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY, STE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 USA SN 0895-3309 EI 1944-7965 J9 J ECON PERSPECT JI J. Econ. Perspect. PD WIN PY 1996 VL 10 IS 1 BP 69 EP 85 PG 17 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA TZ854 UT WOS:A1996TZ85400004 ER PT J AU Ammer, J Mei, JP AF Ammer, J Mei, JP TI Measuring international economic linkages with stock market data SO JOURNAL OF FINANCE LA English DT Article ID PURCHASING POWER PARITY; UNITED-STATES; VARIANCE DECOMPOSITION; DIVIDEND YIELDS; BOND MARKETS; RETURNS; RISK; COUNTRIES; EQUITY; INTEGRATION AB This article develops a new framework for measuring financial and real economic linkages between countries. Using United States and United Kingdom data from 1957 to 1989, we find closer financial linkages after the Bretton Woods currency arrangement was abandoned and Britain suspended exchange controls. In a pairwise application to fifteen countries over a shorter period, we also find that news about future dividend growth is more highly correlated between countries than contemporaneous output measures. This suggests that there are lags in the international transmission of economic shocks and that contemporaneous output correlation may understate the magnitude of integration. C1 NYU,DEPT FINANCE,NEW YORK,NY 10012. RP Ammer, J (reprint author), NYU,BOARD GOVERNORS,FED RESERVE SYST,NEW YORK,NY 10012, USA. NR 29 TC 50 Z9 50 U1 2 U2 12 PU AMER FINANCE ASSN PI NEW YORK PA 44 WEST FOURTH ST, STE 9-190, NEW YORK, NY 10012 SN 0022-1082 J9 J FINANC JI J. Financ. PD DEC PY 1996 VL 51 IS 5 BP 1743 EP 1763 DI 10.2307/2329536 PG 21 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA VU849 UT WOS:A1996VU84900007 ER PT J AU Osterberg, WP Thomson, JB AF Osterberg, WP Thomson, JB TI Optimal financial structure and bank capital requirements: An empirical investigation SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH LA English DT Article ID CORPORATE AB We analyze the empirical impact of regulatory capital standards on leverage ratios of 232 bank holding companies for December 1986, June 1987, and December 1987. Since the interaction of market and regulatory forces determines the optimal leverage ratios of banks, even if almost all banks meet the capital standards, capital regulation will influence movements of leverage in a cross-section. We find that leverage is influenced by both capital standards and market forces and that there is simultaneity between leverage and municipal securites, the latter being used to minimize tax liabilities. RP Osterberg, WP (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,RES DEPT,CLEVELAND,OH 44101, USA. NR 26 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 3 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0920-8550 J9 J FINANC SERV RES JI J. Financ. Serv. Res. PD DEC PY 1996 VL 10 IS 4 BP 315 EP 332 PG 18 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA WD386 UT WOS:A1996WD38600001 ER PT J AU Helwege, J AF Helwege, J TI Determinants of savings and loan failures: Estimates of a time-varying proportional hazard function SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH LA English DT Article ID DEREGULATION; INSURANCE; MODELS AB This article examines the propensity of S&Ls to fail over the 1980s, given the asset allocation and funding choices apparent in their balance sheets. The methodology is estimation of a time-varying proportional hazard function, which allows for complete use of the time-series variation in financial data in a panel data set of thrifts in the 1980s. The variables of interest are ex ante measures of management strategies and exclusive of ex post measures of success. The results suggest that mortgage loans were, as presumed in FIRREA, significantly safer than other assets. This result, not surprisingly, draws more strength from the latter half of the 1980s. Land loans, commercial loans, direct purchases of land for investment purposes, and equity investments in subsidiaries all led to higher probabilities of failure. Subordinated debt and accrued interest receivable were also associated with shorter S&L lifespans. Mortgage-backed securities have no appreciable effect on the hazard rate, suggesting that their ''safety and soundness'' may be exaggerated. Greater reliance on retail deposits for funding likely reduced the probability of failure. RP Helwege, J (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,NEW YORK,NY 10045, USA. NR 28 TC 7 Z9 7 U1 0 U2 4 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0920-8550 J9 J FINANC SERV RES JI J. Financ. Serv. Res. PD DEC PY 1996 VL 10 IS 4 BP 373 EP 392 PG 20 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA WD386 UT WOS:A1996WD38600004 ER PT J AU Kupiec, PH White, AP AF Kupiec, PH White, AP TI Regulatory competition and the efficiency of alternative derivative product margining systems SO JOURNAL OF FUTURES MARKETS LA English DT Article ID FUTURES MARKETS; PERFORMANCE; VOLATILITY RP Kupiec, PH (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,DIV RES & STAT,20TH & CONSTITUT AVE NW,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 21 TC 4 Z9 6 U1 1 U2 5 PU JOHN WILEY & SONS INC PI NEW YORK PA 605 THIRD AVE, NEW YORK, NY 10158-0012 SN 0270-7314 J9 J FUTURES MARKETS JI J. Futures Mark. PD DEC PY 1996 VL 16 IS 8 BP 943 EP 968 DI 10.1002/(SICI)1096-9934(199612)16:8<943::AID-FUT6>3.0.CO;2-M PG 26 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA VT405 UT WOS:A1996VT40500006 ER PT J AU BonserNeal, C Tanner, G AF BonserNeal, C Tanner, G TI Central bank intervention and the volatility of foreign exchange rates: Evidence from the options market SO JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL MONEY AND FINANCE LA English DT Article ID BEHAVIOR AB This paper tests the effects of central bank intervention on the ex ante volatility of $/DM and $/yen exchange rates between 1985 and 1991. In contrast to previous research which employed GARCH estimates of conditional volatility, we estimate ex ante volatility using the implied volatilities of currency option prices. We also control for the effects of other macroeconomic announcements. We find little support for the hypothesis that central bank intervention decreases expected exchange rate volatility. Instead, central bank intervention is generally associated with a positive change in ex ante exchange rate volatility, or with no change. (JEL 31). Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd. C1 UNIV HAWAII,DEPT FINANCIAL ECON & INST,HONOLULU,HI 96822. RP BonserNeal, C (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK KANSAS CITY,KANSAS CITY,MO 64198, USA. NR 30 TC 67 Z9 69 U1 0 U2 8 PU ELSEVIER SCI LTD PI OXFORD PA THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD, OXON, ENGLAND OX5 1GB SN 0261-5606 J9 J INT MONEY FINANC JI J. Int. Money Finan. PD DEC PY 1996 VL 15 IS 6 BP 853 EP 878 DI 10.1016/S0261-5606(96)00033-2 PG 26 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA WB434 UT WOS:A1996WB43400002 ER PT J AU Carlino, G Mills, L AF Carlino, G Mills, L TI Are US regional incomes converging? Reply SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE analysis of growth, development, and change; economic growth and aggregate production; multiple/simultaneous equation models; time series models C1 FED NATL MORTGAGE ASSOC,WASHINGTON,DC 20016. RP Carlino, G (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK PHILADELPHIA,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19106, USA. NR 2 TC 8 Z9 8 U1 0 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD DEC PY 1996 VL 38 IS 3 BP 599 EP 601 DI 10.1016/S0304-3932(96)01293-7 PG 3 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA WF686 UT WOS:A1996WF68600011 ER PT J AU Rubalcaba, JS AF Rubalcaba, JS TI Using best-seller's BestWeb to provide an on-line database on the Web SO LIBRARY SOFTWARE REVIEW LA English DT Article AB This review of BestWeb explains how the software translates text database files into an HTML-compatible database. Although not possessing the fully integrated functionality of sophisticated on-line catalogs, the BestWeb software offers an inexpensive and convenient substitute. For small, special libraries, the BestWeb version of an electronic card catalog offers an alternative method to providing expensive on-line access. C1 FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,COMP SCI LIB,NEW YORK,NY 10045. NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU SAGE SCIENCE PRESS PI THOUSAND OAKS PA 2455 TELLER RD, THOUSAND OAKS, CA 91320 SN 0742-5759 J9 LIBR SOFTWARE REV JI Libr. Softw. Rev. PD WIN PY 1996 VL 15 IS 4 BP 235 EP 241 PG 7 WC Computer Science, Information Systems; Computer Science, Software Engineering SC Computer Science GA VV021 UT WOS:A1996VV02100004 ER PT J AU Engen, E Skinner, J AF Engen, E Skinner, J TI Taxation and economic growth SO NATIONAL TAX JOURNAL LA English DT Article ID UNITED-STATES; CROSS-SECTION; TAX-REFORM; INVESTMENT; PANEL; RATES; RETURNS; POLICY; INCOME AB Tax reforms are sometimes touted as having strong macroeconomic growth effects. Using three approaches, we consider the impact of a major tax reform-a 5 percentage point cut in marginal tax rates-on long-term growth rates. The first approach is to examine the historical record of the U.S. economy to evaluate whether tax cuts have been associated with economic growth. The second is to consider the evidence on taxation and growth for a large sample of countries. And finally, we use evidence from microlevel studies of labor supply, investment demand, and productivity growth. Our results suggest modest effects, on the order of 0.2 to 0.3 percentage point differences in growth rates in response to a major tax reform. Nevertheless, even such small effects can have a large cumulative impact on living standards. C1 NBER,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. DARTMOUTH COLL,DEPT ECON,HANOVER,NH 03755. RP Engen, E (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 96 TC 31 Z9 33 U1 0 U2 8 PU NATL TAX ASSN PI COLUMBUS PA 5310 EAST MAIN ST, COLUMBUS, OH 43213 SN 0028-0283 J9 NATL TAX J JI Natl. Tax J. PD DEC PY 1996 VL 49 IS 4 BP 617 EP 642 PG 26 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA WG265 UT WOS:A1996WG26500009 ER PT J AU Carlino, GA Mills, L AF Carlino, GA Mills, L TI Testing neoclassical convergence in regional incomes and earnings SO REGIONAL SCIENCE AND URBAN ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE income convergence; regional economic growth; time series models ID GROWTH AB The time-series properties of per capita income and per capita earnings in the regions of the United States are tested for consistency with the neoclassical growth model's prediction of convergence. We find evidence for per capita income convergence for U.S. regions during the 1929-90 period after allowing for a trend break in 1946. These findings support the neoclassical model's prediction of convergence. The evidence for per capita earnings convergence is, however, less conclusive. Shocks to per capita earnings are found to be more persistent than shocks to per capita income. This implies that the regional distribution of transfer payments tends to smooth the effects of deviation on relative regional per capita earnings and reinforce trends in per capita income convergence. C1 FED NATL MORTGAGE ASSOC,WASHINGTON,DC 20016. RP Carlino, GA (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK PHILADELPHIA,RES DEPT,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19106, USA. NR 41 TC 40 Z9 43 U1 2 U2 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0166-0462 J9 REG SCI URBAN ECON JI Reg. Sci. Urban Econ. PD DEC PY 1996 VL 26 IS 6 BP 565 EP 590 DI 10.1016/S0166-0462(96)02137-0 PG 26 WC Economics; Environmental Studies; Urban Studies SC Business & Economics; Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Urban Studies GA WB344 UT WOS:A1996WB34400002 ER PT J AU Dwyer, GP Locke, P Yu, W AF Dwyer, GP Locke, P Yu, W TI Index arbitrage and nonlinear dynamics between the S&P 500 futures and cash SO REVIEW OF FINANCIAL STUDIES LA English DT Article ID STOCK INDEX; TIME-SERIES; UNIT-ROOT; MARKETS; PROFITABILITY AB We use a cost of carry model with nonzero transaction costs to motivate estimation of a nonlinear dynamic relationship between the S&P 500 futures and cash indexes. Discontinuous arbitrage suggests that a threshold error correction mechanism may characterize many aspects of the relationship between the futures and cash indexes, We use minute-by-minute data on the S&P 500 futures and cash indexes. The results indicate that nonlinear dynamics are important and related to arbitrage, and suggest that arbitrage is associated with more rapid convergence of the basis to the cost of carry than would be indicated by a linear model. C1 FED RESERVE BANK ATLANTA,ATLANTA,GA. BOSTON UNIV,BOSTON,MA 02215. RP Dwyer, GP (reprint author), CLEMSON UNIV,DEPT ECON,CLEMSON,SC 29634, USA. NR 33 TC 56 Z9 58 U1 1 U2 11 PU OXFORD UNIV PRESS INC PI CARY PA JOURNALS DEPT, 2001 EVANS RD, CARY, NC 27513 SN 0893-9454 J9 REV FINANC STUD JI Rev. Financ. Stud. PD WIN PY 1996 VL 9 IS 1 BP 301 EP 332 DI 10.1093/rfs/9.1.301 PG 32 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA UG169 UT WOS:A1996UG16900010 ER PT J AU Jayaratne, J AF Jayaratne, J TI A note on the implementation of cable TV rate caps SO REVIEW OF INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATION LA English DT Article DE cable TV; market power; rate caps ID MARKET POWER; TELEVISION; DEREGULATION AB In devising rate caps under the 1992 Cable Act, the FCC measured the effects of market power in cable TV by comparing overbuild franchise areas (served by more than one cable operator) with monopoly areas. This paper draws attention to, and corrects, several shortcomings in the FCC's analysis. We conclude that the overbuilds' rates are, on average, 12 percent lower than monopoly rates (and not 16 percent as estimated by the FCC, a difference of approximately $700 million in terms of annual cable revenues). Furthermore, overbuild operators offer better service quality than monopoly systems; the average overbuild offers upto 34 percent more non-broadcast channels. RP Jayaratne, J (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,NEW YORK,NY 10045, USA. NR 12 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 2 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0889-938X J9 REV IND ORGAN JI Rev. Ind. Organ. PD DEC PY 1996 VL 11 IS 6 BP 823 EP 840 PG 18 WC Economics; Management SC Business & Economics GA WP999 UT WOS:A1996WP99900008 ER PT J AU Blomberg, SB AF Blomberg, SB TI Growth, political instability and the defence burden SO ECONOMICA LA English DT Article ID MILITARY EXPENDITURE; ECONOMIC-DEVELOPMENT; COUNTRIES; CAPITALISM AB I develop and test a model to examine the economic effects of political instability and military expenditure. Defence plays three important roles in the model: (i) it provides insurance against political instability; (ii) it augments the human capital stock by training the labour force; but (iii) it comes at the expense of consumption. The resulting theory predicts that increased political instability or increased defence can inhibit economic growth. Using panel data, I find that increases in political instability do decrease growth while increases in defence do decrease political instability. I also find that increases in defence have a direct negative effect on growth, although the relation is weak. C1 FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,NEW YORK,NY. RP Blomberg, SB (reprint author), WELLESLEY COLL,WELLESLEY,MA 02181, USA. NR 39 TC 16 Z9 16 U1 0 U2 3 PU ECONOMICA PUBL OFFICE PI LONDON PA LONDON SCH OF ECON & POLIT SCI HOUGHTON ST, LONDON, ENGLAND WC2A 2AE SN 0013-0427 J9 ECONOMICA JI Economica PD NOV PY 1996 VL 63 IS 252 BP 649 EP 672 DI 10.2307/2555001 PG 24 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA WB116 UT WOS:A1996WB11600008 ER PT J AU Berger, AN Humphrey, DB Pulley, LB AF Berger, AN Humphrey, DB Pulley, LB TI Do consumers pay for one-stop banking? Evidence from an alternative revenue function SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article DE bank; revenue; scope economies ID PRODUCT MIX ECONOMIES; COST; SCOPE; SCALE; FIRM AB In providing financial services jointly, banks may reduce costs due to complementarities in production (cost economies of scope) or raise revenues from complementarities in consumption (revenue economies of scope). Cost economies of scope between bank deposits and loans have been found to be small. Revenue economies of scope are investigated here for the first time and found to be insignificant over 1978-1990 for both small and large banks and for those on or off the revenue-efficient frontier. The lack of complementarities between deposits and loans-where benefits are most likely to occur-suggests that claims of important synergies from an expansion of banking powers be taken with caution. C1 UNIV PENN,WHARTON FINANCIAL INST CTR,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19104. FLORIDA STATE UNIV,DEPT FINANCE,TALLAHASSEE,FL 32306. COLL WILLIAM & MARY,GRAD SCH BUSINESS ADM,WILLIAMSBURG,VA 23185. RP Berger, AN (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 23 TC 38 Z9 38 U1 3 U2 7 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD NOV PY 1996 VL 20 IS 9 BP 1601 EP 1621 DI 10.1016/S0378-4266(96)00028-3 PG 21 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA VU251 UT WOS:A1996VU25100008 ER PT J AU Geweke, J AF Geweke, J TI Bayesian reduced rank regression in econometrics SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMETRICS LA English DT Article DE factor model; predictive odds; capital asset pricing model ID MODELS; INTEGRATION AB The reduced rank regression model arises repeatedly in theoretical and applied econometrics. To date the only general treatments of this model have been frequentist. This paper develops general methods for Bayesian inference with noninformative reference priors in this model, based on a Markov chain sampling algorithm, and procedures for obtaining predictive odds ratios for regression models with different ranks. These methods are used to obtain evidence on the number of factors in a capital asset pricing model. C1 FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,RES DEPT,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55480. RP Geweke, J (reprint author), UNIV MINNESOTA,DEPT ECON,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55455, USA. NR 32 TC 54 Z9 54 U1 0 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA LAUSANNE PI LAUSANNE 1 PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE 1, SWITZERLAND SN 0304-4076 J9 J ECONOMETRICS JI J. Econom. PD NOV PY 1996 VL 75 IS 1 BP 121 EP 146 DI 10.1016/0304-4076(95)01773-9 PG 26 WC Economics; Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA VF460 UT WOS:A1996VF46000010 ER PT J AU Green, EJ Park, IU AF Green, EJ Park, IU TI Bayes contingent plans SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR & ORGANIZATION LA English DT Article DE subjective probability; conditional expected utility; minimax; weighted utility; revealed AB An intuitively natural consistency condition for contingent plans is necessary and sufficient for a contingent plan to be rationalized by maximization of conditional expected utility. One alternative theory of choice under uncertainty the weighted-utility theory developed by Chew (1983) does not entail that contingent plans will generally satisfy this condition. Another alternative theory, the minimax theory as formulated by Savage (1972), does entail the consistency condition (at least for singleton-valued plans). C1 UNIV BRISTOL,BRISTOL,AVON,ENGLAND. RP Green, EJ (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55401, USA. NR 6 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0167-2681 J9 J ECON BEHAV ORGAN JI J. Econ. Behav. Organ. PD NOV PY 1996 VL 31 IS 2 BP 225 EP 236 DI 10.1016/S0167-2681(96)00894-3 PG 12 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA WL434 UT WOS:A1996WL43400006 ER PT J AU Calvo, GA Mendoza, EG AF Calvo, GA Mendoza, EG TI Mexico's balance-of-payments crisis: A chronicle of a death foretold SO JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Symposium on Speculative Attacks in Emerging Markets - What has Mexico Taught Us, at the Conference of the Center-for-International-Economics of University-of-Maryland CY DEC 01-02, 1995 CL COLLEGE PK, MD SP Univ Maryland, Ctr Int Econ DE balance-of-payments crises; devaluation; herding behavior; Mexican crisis; global economy ID REAL EXCHANGE-RATE; TRADE AB This paper claims that the roots of Mexico's balance-of-payments crisis are found in the prevailing high degree of capital mobility and financial globalization. Under these circumstances, shifts in foreign capital hows and anticipation of a banking-system bailout may produce large imbalances between stocks of financial assets and foreign reserves, threatening the sustainability of currency pegs. Econometric analysis suggests that half of Mexico's reserve losses could be accounted for by these phenomena. Large financial imbalances are also fertile ground for self-fulfilling-prophesy crises which lead devaluations to produce deep recessions. These difficulties can be partly remedied by appropriate policies. C1 FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,DIV INT FINANCE,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. UNIV MARYLAND,CTR INT ECON,COLLEGE PK,MD 20742. NR 26 TC 108 Z9 111 U1 2 U2 9 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0022-1996 J9 J INT ECON JI J. Int. Econ. PD NOV PY 1996 VL 41 IS 3-4 BP 235 EP 264 DI 10.1016/S0022-1996(96)01436-5 PG 30 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA VZ974 UT WOS:A1996VZ97400003 ER PT J AU Kamin, SB Rogers, JH AF Kamin, SB Rogers, JH TI Monetary policy in the end-game to exchange-rate based stabilizations: The case of Mexico SO JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Symposium on Speculative Attacks in Emerging Markets - What has Mexico Taught Us, at the Conference of the Center-for-International-Economics of University-of-Maryland CY DEC 01-02, 1995 CL COLLEGE PK, MD SP Univ Maryland, Ctr Int Econ DE Mexico; monetary policy; crisis; exchange rate AB This paper evaluates the extent to which Mexican monetary policy in 1994 may have loosened, or not tightened sufficiently, in the lead up to the devaluation. Using econometric models of money demand, we find evidence that the high monetary base growth reflected strong positive shocks to the demand for money, not supply. Next, we show that interest rates rose only moderately less in 1994 than was predicted by an estimated reaction function. Thus to have maintained the peg, the authorities would have needed to intensify their response to exchange market developments (to alter their reaction function) at a time when concerns over the banking sector and the economy pointed to a relaxation of monetary policy. C1 FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,INT FINANCE DIV,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. NR 17 TC 11 Z9 11 U1 1 U2 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0022-1996 J9 J INT ECON JI J. Int. Econ. PD NOV PY 1996 VL 41 IS 3-4 BP 285 EP 307 DI 10.1016/S0022-1996(96)01438-9 PG 23 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA VZ974 UT WOS:A1996VZ97400005 ER PT J AU Cole, HL Kehoe, TJ AF Cole, HL Kehoe, TJ TI A self-fulfilling model of Mexico's 1994-1995 debt crisis SO JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Symposium on Speculative Attacks in Emerging Markets - What has Mexico Taught Us, at the Conference of the Center-for-International-Economics of University-of-Maryland CY DEC 01-02, 1995 CL COLLEGE PK, MD SP Univ Maryland, Ctr Int Econ DE debt crisis; sunspot; Mexico ID SUSTAINABLE PLANS AB This paper explores the extent to which the Mexican government's inability to roll over its debt during December 1994 and January 1995 can be modeled as a self-fulfilling debt crisis. In the model there is a crucial interval of debt for which the government, although it finds it optimal to repay old debt if it can sell new debt, finds it optimal to default if it cannot sell new debt. If government debt is in this interval, which we call the crisis zone, then we can construct equilibria in which a crisis can occur stochastically, depending on the realization of a sunspot variable. The size of this zone depends on the average length of maturity of government debt. Our analysis suggests that for a country, like Mexico, with a very shea maturity structure of debt, the crisis zone is large and includes levels of debt as low as those in Mexico before the crisis. C1 UNIV MINNESOTA,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55455. RP Cole, HL (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55480, USA. NR 15 TC 92 Z9 98 U1 1 U2 9 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0022-1996 J9 J INT ECON JI J. Int. Econ. PD NOV PY 1996 VL 41 IS 3-4 BP 309 EP 330 DI 10.1016/S0022-1996(96)01439-0 PG 22 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA VZ974 UT WOS:A1996VZ97400006 ER PT J AU Atkeson, A RiosRull, JV AF Atkeson, A RiosRull, JV TI The balance of payments and borrowing constraints: An alternative view of the Mexican crisis SO JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Symposium on Speculative Attacks in Emerging Markets - What has Mexico Taught Us, at the Conference of the Center-for-International-Economics of University-of-Maryland CY DEC 01-02, 1995 CL COLLEGE PK, MD SP Univ Maryland, Ctr Int Econ DE balance of payments; speculative attacks; international borrowing; exchange rate crises AB In this paper we develop a model in which a country faces a balance of payments crisis if constraints on its international borrowing bind. We use the model to describe the dynamics of the trade balance, capital account, and balance of payments of a country that borrows to finance consumption following sweeping macroeconomic and structural reforms and then hits constraints on its international borrowing. We compare the predictions of this theoretical example with events in Mexico from 1987 through 1995. C1 NATL BUR ECON RES,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,RES DEPT,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55480. RP Atkeson, A (reprint author), UNIV PENN,DEPT ECON,3718 LOCUST WALK,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19104, USA. NR 12 TC 11 Z9 11 U1 0 U2 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0022-1996 J9 J INT ECON JI J. Int. Econ. PD NOV PY 1996 VL 41 IS 3-4 BP 331 EP 349 DI 10.1016/S0022-1996(96)01440-7 PG 19 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA VZ974 UT WOS:A1996VZ97400007 ER PT J AU Ghosal, V Loungani, P AF Ghosal, V Loungani, P TI Evidence on nominal wage rigidity from a panel of US manufacturing industries SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID UNITED-STATES; AGGREGATE DEMAND; CONTRACTS; MODEL; FLUCTUATIONS; INDEXATION; INFLATION; PRICE C1 FED RESERVE BOARD,DIV INT FINANCE,WASHINGTON,DC. RP Ghosal, V (reprint author), UNIV MIAMI,CORAL GABLES,FL 33124, USA. NR 51 TC 9 Z9 9 U1 0 U2 5 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD NOV PY 1996 VL 28 IS 4 BP 650 EP 668 DI 10.2307/2078076 PN 1 PG 19 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA VW771 UT WOS:A1996VW77100006 ER PT J AU Greenspan, A AF Greenspan, A TI Remarks on evolving payment system issues SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article RP Greenspan, A (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 0 TC 10 Z9 10 U1 0 U2 2 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD NOV PY 1996 VL 28 IS 4 BP 689 EP 695 DI 10.2307/2077916 PN 2 PG 7 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA VW772 UT WOS:A1996VW77200001 ER PT J AU Berger, AN Hancock, D Marquardt, JC AF Berger, AN Hancock, D Marquardt, JC TI A framework for analyzing efficiency, risks, costs, and innovations in the payments system SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID BANKING RP Berger, AN (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 68 TC 26 Z9 26 U1 3 U2 28 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD NOV PY 1996 VL 28 IS 4 BP 696 EP 732 DI 10.2307/2077917 PN 2 PG 37 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA VW772 UT WOS:A1996VW77200002 ER PT J AU Summers, BJ AF Summers, BJ TI Controlling risk in payment systems - Comment SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Editorial Material RP Summers, BJ (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK RICHMOND,RICHMOND,VA 23261, USA. NR 5 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 0 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD NOV PY 1996 VL 28 IS 4 BP 863 EP 869 DI 10.2307/2077925 PN 2 PG 7 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA VW772 UT WOS:A1996VW77200010 ER PT J AU Hancock, D Wilcox, JA AF Hancock, D Wilcox, JA TI Intraday management of bank reserves: The effects of caps and fees on daylight overdrafts SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID BALANCE C1 UNIV CALIF BERKELEY,HAAS SCH BUSINESS,BERKELEY,CA 94720. RP Hancock, D (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 13 TC 14 Z9 14 U1 0 U2 4 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD NOV PY 1996 VL 28 IS 4 BP 870 EP 908 DI 10.2307/2077926 PN 2 PG 39 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA VW772 UT WOS:A1996VW77200011 ER PT J AU Avery, RB AF Avery, RB TI Cash, paper, and electronic payments: A cross-country analysis - Comment SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Editorial Material RP Avery, RB (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 0 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 0 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD NOV PY 1996 VL 28 IS 4 BP 940 EP 941 DI 10.2307/2077929 PN 2 PG 2 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA VW772 UT WOS:A1996VW77200014 ER PT J AU Bauer, PW Ferrier, GD AF Bauer, PW Ferrier, GD TI Scale economies, cost efficiencies, and technological change in federal reserve payments processing SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID BANKING; INDUSTRY C1 UNIV ARKANSAS,FAYETTEVILLE,AR 72701. RP Bauer, PW (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,FINANCIAL SERV RES GRP,CLEVELAND,OH 44114, USA. NR 38 TC 23 Z9 23 U1 1 U2 5 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD NOV PY 1996 VL 28 IS 4 BP 1004 EP 1039 DI 10.2307/2077938 PN 2 PG 36 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA VW772 UT WOS:A1996VW77200023 ER PT J AU Hughes, JP Lang, W Mester, LJ Moon, CG AF Hughes, JP Lang, W Mester, LJ Moon, CG TI Efficient banking under interstate branching SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID FINANCIAL FIRM; MODEL C1 FED RESERVE BANK PHILADELPHIA,PHILADELPHIA,PA. UNIV PENN,WHARTON SCH,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19104. RP Hughes, JP (reprint author), RUTGERS STATE UNIV,PISCATAWAY,NJ 08855, USA. RI Moon, Choon-Geol/C-1768-2017 OI Moon, Choon-Geol/0000-0002-2933-9150 NR 15 TC 71 Z9 73 U1 0 U2 4 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD NOV PY 1996 VL 28 IS 4 BP 1045 EP 1071 DI 10.2307/2077940 PN 2 PG 27 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA VW772 UT WOS:A1996VW77200025 ER PT J AU Hunter, WC AF Hunter, WC TI Efficient banking under interstate branching - Comment SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Editorial Material RP Hunter, WC (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,CHICAGO,IL, USA. NR 1 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 0 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD NOV PY 1996 VL 28 IS 4 BP 1072 EP 1075 DI 10.2307/2077941 PN 2 PG 4 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA VW772 UT WOS:A1996VW77200026 ER PT J AU Carlino, G Mills, L AF Carlino, G Mills, L TI Convergence and the US states: A time-series analysis SO JOURNAL OF REGIONAL SCIENCE LA English DT Article ID INCOMES AB After decades of apparent convergence, state and regional per capita earnings diverged between 1978 and 1988. A central tenet of the convergence hypothesis is that shocks to relative state and regional earnings, such as those of the 1978 to 1988 period, are transitory. We find evidence for convergence for the U.S. states and regions during the 1929 to 1990 period after allowing for a break in the rate at which the various states and regions were converging in 1946. An important finding of this research is that the U.S. states and regions achieved per capita earnings convergence by 1946. C1 FED NATL MORTGAGE ASSOC,WASHINGTON,DC 20016. RP Carlino, G (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK PHILADELPHIA,RES DEPT,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19106, USA. NR 40 TC 39 Z9 40 U1 1 U2 3 PU BLACKWELL PUBLISHERS PI CAMBRIDGE PA 350 MAIN STREET, STE 6, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02148-5023 SN 0022-4146 J9 J REGIONAL SCI JI J. Reg. Sci. PD NOV PY 1996 VL 36 IS 4 BP 597 EP 616 DI 10.1111/j.1467-9787.1996.tb01120.x PG 20 WC Economics; Environmental Studies; Planning & Development SC Business & Economics; Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Public Administration GA VT525 UT WOS:A1996VT52500004 ER PT J AU Eisenbeis, RA Horvitz, PM Cole, RA AF Eisenbeis, RA Horvitz, PM Cole, RA TI Commercial banks and real estate lending: The Texas experience SO JOURNAL OF REGULATORY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article AB This paper examines the performance of Texas commercial banks specializing in mortgage lending during the difficult times of the late 1980s and early 1990s to investigate how representative their experience as compared with that of banks concentrating in real estate lending across the country. The results show that Texas REBs performed very poorly during the 1980s and early 1990s, but this was because the Texas REBs were clearly different from the majority of the banks classified as REBs in the rest of the country. In contract to non-Texas real estate specializing banks, those in Texas banks put substantial assets into much riskier construction and development loans, and in loans on commercial property, such as office buildings, hotels and shopping centers. In a poor real estate market, these loans performed very poorly. The analysis indicates that the Texas experience is not a basis for rejecting the View that the commercial bank industry can safely replace the declining thrift industry as a major source of residential mortgage financing. C1 UNIV HOUSTON,COLL BUSINESS ADM,DEPT FINANCE,HOUSTON,TX 77204. DIV RES & STAT,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. RP Eisenbeis, RA (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK ATLANTA,DIV RES,ATLANTA,GA 30303, USA. RI Cole, Rebel/C-4399-2008 OI Cole, Rebel/0000-0001-9830-662X NR 8 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 3 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0922-680X J9 J REGUL ECON JI J. Regul. Econ. PD NOV PY 1996 VL 10 IS 3 BP 275 EP 290 DI 10.1007/BF00157673 PG 16 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA VT517 UT WOS:A1996VT51700003 ER PT J AU Fuhrer, JC Little, JS AF Fuhrer, JC Little, JS TI Technology and growth: An overview SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article AB During the 1990s, the Federal Reserve has pursued its twin goals of price stability and steady employment with considerable success. But despite-or perhaps because of-this success, concerns about the pace of economic and productivity growth have attracted renewed attention. Many observers ruefully note that the average pace of GDP growth has remained below rates achieved in the 1960s and that a period of rapid investment in computers and other capital equipment has had disappointingly little impact on the productivity numbers. Most of the industrial world has experienced a similar decline in trend and productivity growth, an increase in income inequality, and even slower job creation than we have seen here in the United States. Many members of the economics profession concur with The Economist that ''understanding growth is surely the most urgent task in economics,'' and the last few years have seen a resurgence in research on the economics of growth. For these reasons, the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston devoted its fortieth economic conference, held in June 1996, to Technology and Growth, to explore what we know and clarify what we do not know about the issues. This article reviews the presentations at the conference and the themes that emerged from the ensuing discussions. RP Fuhrer, JC (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,600 ATLANTIC AVE,BOSTON,MA 02106, USA. RI Fuhrer, Jeff/F-8852-2013 NR 30 TC 6 Z9 6 U1 0 U2 6 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD NOV-DEC PY 1996 BP 3 EP & PG 24 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA VY253 UT WOS:A1996VY25300001 ER PT J AU Fieleke, NS AF Fieleke, NS TI Unilateral international transfers: Unrequited and generally unheeded SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article AB Among the major categories of international transactions, perhaps none is usually farther from the limelight than unilateral, or unrequited, transfers. This obscurity is puzzling, because countries' net receipts or payments of unrequited transfers often exceed their international balances on both trade and current account and sometimes amount to sizable fractions of their national incomes, and maintaining equilibrium in international payments in the face of sizable transfers is a challenging issue. This article discusses the singular nature of unrequited transfers, recalls an historic, and still relevant, controversy over their economic impact, and recounts an effort by the United States to neutralize their balance-of-payments consequences. The size of these transfers in recent years, and some plausible explanations for them, are then evaluated, with most attention given to those of the United States. RP Fieleke, NS (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,600 ATLANTIC AVE,BOSTON,MA 02106, USA. NR 10 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 2 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD NOV-DEC PY 1996 BP 27 EP & PG 12 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA VY253 UT WOS:A1996VY25300002 ER PT J AU Mayer, CJ Somerville, CT AF Mayer, CJ Somerville, CT TI Regional housing supply and credit constraints SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID PRICE ELASTICITY; LAND PRICES; URBAN LAND; CRUNCH; GROWTH AB The construction of new housing plays a critical role in the economy, yet it is understudied by researchers. Increases in housing starts raise construction employment, and recent home buyers often purchase other consumer durables, leading through, the multiplier effect to increased employment. Construction is especially important to the business cycle, because changes in residential construction tend to lead recessions and recovery. Despite its importance, empirical research on housing supply is surprisingly rare. This article presents a new empirical model of housing supply that: reflects the land development process and is consistent with the time-series characteristics of the data. The authors apply this model to the four U.S. Census regions and estimate regional housing start elasticities, which range between 0.9 and 3.9. Their estimates also show a prolonged period of below-predicted construction in the Northeast during the early 1990s that does not appear during the downturns in other regions. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that a severe negative shock to local asset values (and thus bank capital), possibly combined with changes in banking regulation, led to a ''credit crunch'' that reduced new housing construction. C1 COLUMBIA BUSINESS SCH, NEW YORK, NY USA. UNIV BRITISH COLUMBIA, FAC COMMERCE & BUSINESS ADM, VANCOUVER, BC V5Z 1M9, CANADA. RP Mayer, CJ (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON, 600 ATLANTIC AVE, BOSTON, MA 02106 USA. NR 41 TC 13 Z9 13 U1 0 U2 3 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 USA SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD NOV-DEC PY 1996 BP 39 EP + PG 0 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA VY253 UT WOS:A1996VY25300003 ER PT J AU Eika, KH Ericsson, NR Nymoen, R AF Eika, KH Ericsson, NR Nymoen, R TI Hazards in implementing a monetary conditions index SO OXFORD BULLETIN OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS LA English DT Article C1 FED RESERVE BOARD,INT FINANCE DIV,WASHINGTON,DC. UNIV OSLO,DEPT ECON,OSLO,NORWAY. RP Eika, KH (reprint author), NORGES BANK,RES DEPT,OSLO,NORWAY. NR 29 TC 16 Z9 17 U1 0 U2 3 PU BLACKWELL PUBL LTD PI OXFORD PA 108 COWLEY RD, OXFORD, OXON, ENGLAND OX4 1JF SN 0305-9049 J9 OXFORD B ECON STAT JI Oxf. Bull. Econ. Stat. PD NOV PY 1996 VL 58 IS 4 BP 765 EP & PG 27 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods; Statistics & Probability SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences; Mathematics GA WA461 UT WOS:A1996WA46100009 ER PT J AU Tootell, GMB AF Tootell, GMB TI Redlining in Boston: Do mortgage lenders discriminate against neighborhoods? SO QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID RACE AB Historically, lenders have been accused of ''redlining'' minority neighborhoods as well as refusing to lend to minority applicants. Considerable bank regulation is designed to prevent both actions. However, the strong correlation between race and neighborhood makes it difficult to distinguish the impact of geographic discrimination from the effects of racial discrimination. Previous studies have failed to untangle these two influences, in part, because of severe omitted variable bias. The data set in this paper allows the distinct effects of race and geography to be identified, and it shows that the evidence for redlining is weak. RP Tootell, GMB (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA, USA. NR 15 TC 37 Z9 37 U1 0 U2 7 PU MIT PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA 55 HAYWARD ST JOURNALS DEPT, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 SN 0033-5533 J9 Q J ECON JI Q. J. Econ. PD NOV PY 1996 VL 111 IS 4 BP 1049 EP 1079 DI 10.2307/2946707 PG 31 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA VU913 UT WOS:A1996VU91300003 ER PT J AU Fuhrer, JC AF Fuhrer, JC TI Monetary policy shifts and long-term interest rates SO QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID MODELS; REGIME AB The Pure Expectations Hypothesis (PEH) serves as the benchmark model for the relationship between yields on bonds of different maturities. When coupled with rational expectations, however, empirical renderings of the model fail miserably. I explore the possibility that failure to account for changes in monetary policy regime explains much of the failure of the PEH. Estimating changing monetary regimes in conjunction with the PEH significantly improves its performance. The predicted spread between the long and short rates is highly correlated with the actual spread. The standard deviation of the theoretical spread is nearly identical to that of the actual spread. RP Fuhrer, JC (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA, USA. RI Fuhrer, Jeff/F-8852-2013 NR 20 TC 37 Z9 37 U1 3 U2 10 PU MIT PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA 55 HAYWARD ST JOURNALS DEPT, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 SN 0033-5533 J9 Q J ECON JI Q. J. Econ. PD NOV PY 1996 VL 111 IS 4 BP 1183 EP 1209 DI 10.2307/2946712 PG 27 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA VU913 UT WOS:A1996VU91300008 ER PT J AU Hanushek, EA Rivkin, SG Taylor, LL AF Hanushek, EA Rivkin, SG Taylor, LL TI Aggregation and the estimated effects of school resources SO REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Symposium on School Quality and Educational Outcomes CY DEC 15-16, 1994 CL HARVARD UNIV, KENNEDY SCH GOVT, CAMBRIDGE, MA SP Natl Sci Fdn, Harvard Univ, Kennedy Sch Govt HO HARVARD UNIV, KENNEDY SCH GOVT ID QUALITY MATTER; PUBLIC-SCHOOLS; REGRESSION; EDUCATION; EARNINGS; RETURNS; ISSUES AB This paper helps reconcile the contradictory findings about school resources and school effectiveness by developing the implications of data aggregation. With model misspecification, the theoretical impact of aggregation is generally ambiguous. When important state differences in school policy are omitted, however, aggregation implies clear upward bias of estimated school resource effects. Review of past studies and new empirical analysis provide strong evidence that aggregation inflates the coefficients on school resources. The pattern of results is also inconsistent with an errors-in-variables explanation. These results provide further support to the view that additional expenditures alone are unlikely to improve student outcomes. C1 FED RESERVE BANK DALLAS,DALLAS,TX. RP Hanushek, EA (reprint author), UNIV ROCHESTER,AMHERST COLL,ROCHESTER,NY 14627, USA. NR 39 TC 150 Z9 153 U1 0 U2 11 PU MIT PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA 55 HAYWARD ST JOURNALS DEPT, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 SN 0034-6535 J9 REV ECON STAT JI Rev. Econ. Stat. PD NOV PY 1996 VL 78 IS 4 BP 611 EP 627 DI 10.2307/2109949 PG 17 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA VU709 UT WOS:A1996VU70900003 ER PT J AU Brownstone, D Valletta, RG AF Brownstone, D Valletta, RG TI Modeling earnings measurement error: A multiple imputation approach SO REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS LA English DT Article ID TAX EVASION; WORK EFFORT; PANEL DATA; SAMPLES; TESTS; REGRESSION; EXTENT AB Recent survey validation studies suggest that measurement error in earnings data is pervasive and violates classical measurement error assumptions, and therefore may bias estimation of cross-section and longitudinal earnings models. We model the structure of earnings measurement error using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics Validation Study (PSIDVS). We then use Rubin's (1987) multiple imputation techniques to estimate consistent earnings equations under non-classical earnings measurement error in the PSID. Our technique is readily generalized, and the empirical results demonstrate the potential importance of correcting for measurement error in earnings and related data, particularly during recessions. C1 FED RESERVE BANK,SAN FRANCISCO,CA. RP Brownstone, D (reprint author), UNIV CALIF IRVINE,IRVINE,CA 92717, USA. NR 38 TC 16 Z9 16 U1 0 U2 11 PU MIT PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA 55 HAYWARD ST JOURNALS DEPT, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 SN 0034-6535 J9 REV ECON STAT JI Rev. Econ. Stat. PD NOV PY 1996 VL 78 IS 4 BP 705 EP 717 DI 10.2307/2109957 PG 13 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA VU709 UT WOS:A1996VU70900011 ER PT J AU Aglietta, M Uctum, M AF Aglietta, M Uctum, M TI Europe and the Maastricht challenge SO WORLD ECONOMY LA English DT Article C1 FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,NEW YORK,NY 10045. RP Aglietta, M (reprint author), UNIV PARIS 10,F-92001 NANTERRE,FRANCE. NR 6 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 3 PU BLACKWELL PUBL LTD PI OXFORD PA 108 COWLEY RD, OXFORD, OXON, ENGLAND OX4 1JF SN 0378-5920 J9 WORLD ECON JI World Econ. PD NOV PY 1996 VL 19 IS 6 BP 683 EP 694 DI 10.1111/j.1467-9701.1996.tb00706.x PG 12 WC Business, Finance; Economics; International Relations SC Business & Economics; International Relations GA WA632 UT WOS:A1996WA63200004 ER PT J AU Kahn, GA AF Kahn, GA TI New estimates of the US economy's potential growth rate SO CONTEMPORARY ECONOMIC POLICY LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT 70th Annual Conference of the Western-Economic-Association-International CY JUL 05-09, 1995 CL SAN DIEGO, CA SP W Econ Assoc Int AB Using an Okun's law framework, the analysis here estimates potential growth for the 1990s as measured by both fixed- and chain-weighted GDP. It then decomposes estimated potential growth rates into labor productivity growth (LPG) and labor input growth (LIG) using a regression analysis to separate secular from cyclical changes. It compares estimates 4 potential output and trend productivity growth for the 1990s with estimates from earlier periods. Results indicate that eliminating the substitution bias associated with fixed-weight measures 4 veal GDP raises estimated potential GDP growth in the 1980s but lowers it in the 1990s. A slowdown in labor force growth, with little or no change in long-term productivity growth, largely accounts for the implied slowdown in potential growth. RP Kahn, GA (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK KANSAS CITY,925 GRAND BLVD,KANSAS CITY,MO 64198, USA. NR 19 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 2 PU WESTERN ECONOMIC ASSOC INT PI HUNTINGTON BEACH PA 7400 CENTER AVE SUITE 109, HUNTINGTON BEACH, CA 92647-3039 SN 0735-0007 J9 CONTEMP ECON POLICY JI Contemp. Econ. Policy PD OCT PY 1996 VL 14 IS 4 BP 1 EP 16 PG 16 WC Economics; Public Administration SC Business & Economics; Public Administration GA VP785 UT WOS:A1996VP78500001 ER PT J AU Gagnon, JE Masson, PR McKibbin, WJ AF Gagnon, JE Masson, PR McKibbin, WJ TI German unification: What have we learned from multi-country models? SO ECONOMIC MODELLING LA English DT Article DE German unification; multi-country modelling AB This study reviews early simulations of the effects of German unification using three different rational expectations multi-country models. Despite significant differences in their structures and in the implementations of the unification shock, the models delivered a number of common results that proved reasonably accurate guides to the direction and magnitude of the effects of unification on key macroeconomic variables. Unification was expected to give rise to an increase in German aggregate demand that would put upward pressure on output, inflation, and the exchange rate, and downward pressure on the current account balance. The model simulations also highlighted contractionary effects of high German interest rates on EMS countries. C1 INT MONETARY FUND,WASHINGTON,DC 20431. FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20431. AUSTRALIAN NATL UNIV,CANBERRA,ACT 2601,AUSTRALIA. BROOKINGS INST,WASHINGTON,DC 20036. NR 12 TC 5 Z9 5 U1 0 U2 2 PU BUTTERWORTH-HEINEMANN LTD PI OXFORD PA THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD, OXON, ENGLAND OX5 1GB SN 0264-9993 J9 ECON MODEL JI Econ. Model. PD OCT PY 1996 VL 13 IS 4 BP 467 EP 497 DI 10.1016/0264-9993(96)01022-X PG 31 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA VQ948 UT WOS:A1996VQ94800002 ER PT J AU Fallick, BC AF Fallick, BC TI A review of the recent empirical literature on displaced workers SO INDUSTRIAL & LABOR RELATIONS REVIEW LA English DT Article ID ADVANCE NOTICE; JOB DISPLACEMENT; PLANT CLOSINGS; UNEMPLOYMENT; EARNINGS; SEARCH; LOSSES; NOTIFICATION; COSTS AB This article reviews the empirical literature on job displacement. Job displacement is widespread and strongly countercyclical (tending to peak during economic downturns), but concentrated in industries and states that are doing poorly, relative either to other industries and states or to their own prior performance. Displaced workers experience more nonemployment than do nondisplaced workers, but the difference fades after about four years. In contrast, earnings losses of displaced workers are large and persistent. Outcomes for all displaced workers are heavily influenced by broader economic conditions, and are affected very little by workers' demographic characteristics. The effects of advance notice are not vet clear. RP Fallick, BC (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC, USA. NR 55 TC 123 Z9 124 U1 0 U2 9 PU INDUSTRIAL LABOR RELAT REV PI ITHACA PA CORNELL UNIV, ITHACA, NY 14851-0952 SN 0019-7939 J9 IND LABOR RELAT REV JI Ind. Labor Relat. Rev. PD OCT PY 1996 VL 50 IS 1 BP 5 EP 16 DI 10.2307/2524386 PG 12 WC Industrial Relations & Labor SC Business & Economics GA VK658 UT WOS:A1996VK65800002 ER PT J AU McAndrews, JJ Rob, R AF McAndrews, JJ Rob, R TI Shared ownership and pricing in a network switch SO INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATION LA English DT Article AB We observe that many wholesale switches in automated teller machine (ATM) networks are jointly owned by their members and that this tends to occur more frequently when the wholesale industry is highly concentrated. We also observe that network switches are 'natural monopolies', their costs being largely fixed and their demand exhibiting substantial network externalities, Motivated by these observations, we model the competition for members between wholesale switches and the role joint ownership can play in attracting members. The model analyzes both the adoption decision (which network a bank chooses to join) and the subsequent pricing of switch and ATM services. We compare competition between two solely owned switches with competition between one solely owned and one jointly owned switch. Our analysis shows that a more concentrated structure results under the latter and that retail prices are higher, This calls into question the leniency of antitrust policy toward jointly owned structures. C1 UNIV PENN,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19104. RP McAndrews, JJ (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK PHILADELPHIA,RES DEPT,10 INDEPENDENCE MALL,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19106, USA. NR 4 TC 15 Z9 15 U1 0 U2 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0167-7187 J9 INT J IND ORGAN JI Int. J. Ind. Organ. PD OCT PY 1996 VL 14 IS 6 BP 727 EP 745 DI 10.1016/0167-7187(95)01002-5 PG 19 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA VN078 UT WOS:A1996VN07800004 ER PT J AU Malz, AM AF Malz, AM TI Using option prices to estimate realignment probabilities in the European Monetary System: The case of Sterling-Mark SO JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL MONEY AND FINANCE LA English DT Article ID TARGET ZONE CREDIBILITY; FOREIGN-EXCHANGE RATES; STOCK RETURNS; JUMP PROCESS; ERM AB This pager describes a procedure for estimating the market's perceived probability distribution of future exchange rates from the prices of risk reversals, strangles and other currency options, and uses the procedure to estimate the risk neutral ex ante probability of a realignment of the pound sterling. The procedure for estimating the realignment probabilities relies on the jump-diffusion model of exchange rate behavior and the resulting option pricing formula. By fitting this model to market option price data, I retrieve the unobserved parameters of the jump-diffusion process. I then use these parameter estimates to estimate the ex ante probability distribution of exchange rates and thus the realignment probabilities. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd RP Malz, AM (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,NEW YORK,NY 10045, USA. NR 61 TC 38 Z9 38 U1 4 U2 7 PU BUTTERWORTH-HEINEMANN LTD PI OXFORD PA THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD, OXON, ENGLAND OX5 1GB SN 0261-5606 J9 J INT MONEY FINANC JI J. Int. Money Finan. PD OCT PY 1996 VL 15 IS 5 BP 717 EP 748 DI 10.1016/0261-5606(96)00032-0 PG 32 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA VQ282 UT WOS:A1996VQ28200003 ER PT J AU Idson, TL Valletta, RG AF Idson, TL Valletta, RG TI Seniority, sectoral decline, and employee retention: An analysis of layoff unemployment spells SO JOURNAL OF LABOR ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID MANDATORY RETIREMENT; EARNINGS PROFILES; OLDER WORKERS; JOB TENURE; CONTRACTS; PRODUCTIVITY; INSURANCE; MOBILITY; BEHAVIOR; DURATION AB We investigate the effect of tenure on employee retention under varying labor market conditions. Using a competing risks analysis of recall and new job acceptance applied to layoff unemployment spell data from waves 15 and 16 (1982-83) of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we find that adverse conditions (sectoral employment decline) significantly reduce the positive tenure effect on recall probabilities. This result is consistent with firm default on delayed payment contracts and does not appear to reflect the effect of technological change on the value of firm-specific investments. C1 FED RESERVE BANK SAN FRANCISCO,SAN FRANCISCO,CA. RP Idson, TL (reprint author), COLUMBIA UNIV,NEW YORK,NY 10027, USA. NR 51 TC 13 Z9 13 U1 1 U2 9 PU UNIV CHICAGO PRESS PI CHICAGO PA 5720 S WOODLAWN AVE, CHICAGO, IL 60637 SN 0734-306X J9 J LABOR ECON JI J. Labor Econ. PD OCT PY 1996 VL 14 IS 4 BP 654 EP 676 DI 10.1086/209826 PG 23 WC Economics; Industrial Relations & Labor SC Business & Economics GA VQ238 UT WOS:A1996VQ23800005 ER PT J AU Bayoumi, T Gagnon, J AF Bayoumi, T Gagnon, J TI Taxation and inflation: A new explanation for capital flows SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE cost of capital; net foreign assets; return to saving; tax distortion ID INTEREST-RATES; PURCHASING POWER; POLICY; TAXES AB In a world of mobile capital, the current system of taxation implies that the after-tax cost of capital and return to saving in each country are negatively correlated with the rate of inflation. Thus a country's net foreign asset position ought to be negatively correlated with its long-run inflation rate. The magnitude of these effects is shown to be potentially large. For OECD countries, cross-section and time-series regressions confirm that inflation rates are good predictors of net foreign assets. The existing distribution of net foreign assets may therefore largely reflect tax distortions. C1 FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. RP Bayoumi, T (reprint author), INT MONETARY FUND,WASHINGTON,DC 20431, USA. NR 38 TC 6 Z9 6 U1 0 U2 6 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD OCT PY 1996 VL 38 IS 2 BP 303 EP 330 DI 10.1016/S0304-3932(96)01274-3 PG 28 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA VZ306 UT WOS:A1996VZ30600008 ER PT J AU Cummins, JG Hassett, KA Hubbard, RG AF Cummins, JG Hassett, KA Hubbard, RG TI Tax reforms and investment: A cross-country comparison SO JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ECONOMICS LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Trans-Atlantic Public Economics Seminar on Market Failures and Public Policy (TAPES) CY MAY 19-21, 1994 CL TURIN, ITALY SP NBER, Univ Torino, Fac Econ, Fdn Eni Enrico Mattei DE tax reform; investment; q theory ID PANEL-DATA; FINANCIAL POLICY; JAPANESE FIRMS; CORPORATE; LIQUIDITY; TAXATION; MODELS; COST AB We use firm-level panel data to explore the extent to which fixed investment responds to tax reforms in 14 OECD countries. Previous studies have often found that investment does not respond to changes in the marginal cost of investment. We identify some of the factors responsible for this finding, and employ an estimation procedure that sidesteps the most important of them. In so doing, we find evidence of statistically and economically significant investment responses to tax changes in 12 of the 14 countries. C1 FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. COLUMBIA UNIV,GRAD SCH BUSINESS,NEW YORK,NY 10027. NATL BUR ECON RES,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. RP Cummins, JG (reprint author), NYU,DEPT ECON,269 MERCER ST,7TH FLOOR,NEW YORK,NY 10003, USA. NR 57 TC 54 Z9 54 U1 2 U2 7 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA LAUSANNE PI LAUSANNE 1 PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE 1, SWITZERLAND SN 0047-2727 J9 J PUBLIC ECON JI J. Public Econ. PD OCT PY 1996 VL 62 IS 1-2 BP 237 EP 273 DI 10.1016/0047-2727(96)01580-0 PG 37 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA VJ754 UT WOS:A1996VJ75400010 ER PT J AU Leahy, MP AF Leahy, MP TI The dollar as an official reserve currency under EMU SO OPEN ECONOMIES REVIEW LA English DT Article DE reserves; central banks; EMU; currency composition ID FOREIGN-EXCHANGE RESERVES AB This article analyzes official reserve-holding behavior in EU countries to assess the effect EMU might have on holdings of dollar reserves. Based on earlier research and new estimates, a wide range of projections is presented for the effect of EMU on the overall demand for reserves and their currency composition. It is argued that official dollar holdings could decline on the order of 35% or more from current dollar holdings, although the range of uncertainty is quite large. The contributions of country-specific factors appear to swamp the systematic components that had been isolated in earlier research. RP Leahy, MP (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,DIV INT FINANCE,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 16 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 2 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0923-7992 J9 OPEN ECON REV JI Open Econ. Rev. PD OCT PY 1996 VL 7 IS 4 BP 371 EP 390 DI 10.1007/BF01886370 PG 20 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA VW657 UT WOS:A1996VW65700004 ER PT J AU Kocherlakota, NR AF Kocherlakota, NR TI Implications of efficient risk sharing without commitment SO REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES LA English DT Article ID REPEATED MORAL HAZARD; PRIVATE INFORMATION; INSURANCE; CONTRACTS AB Consumption data generally indicates that consumption risk is not perfectly diversified across individuals. This paper considers if and when imperfect diversification is a feature of efficient allocations in a symmetric information environment without commitment. It shows that if individuals are sufficiently patient, imperfect diversification is always sub-optimal in the long run; however, if individuals are not so patient, imperfect diversification is always optimal. The paper goes on to demonstrate that the way that history matters in an efficient allocation in a symmetric-information/no-commitment environment can be used to distinguish lack of commitment from other possible rationalizations of imperfect risk sharing, such as efficiency in the presence of asymmetric information. RP Kocherlakota, NR (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55401, USA. NR 29 TC 176 Z9 177 U1 0 U2 8 PU REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES LTD PI OXFORD PA C/O BASIL BLACKWELL LTD 108 COWLEY RD, OXFORD, OXON, ENGLAND OX4 1JF SN 0034-6527 J9 REV ECON STUD JI Rev. Econ. Stud. PD OCT PY 1996 VL 63 IS 4 BP 595 EP 609 DI 10.2307/2297795 PG 15 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA VN789 UT WOS:A1996VN78900004 ER PT J AU Duca, JV AF Duca, JV TI Inflation, unemployment, and duration SO ECONOMICS LETTERS LA English DT Article DE inflation; unemployment; duration; Phillips curve ID M2 AB In the early 1990s, core CPI inflation and employment cost inflation have been overpredicted by Phillips curve models, while the duration of unemployment has been unusually high. Duration adds significant information about core inflation in the post-Volcker disinflation period. RP Duca, JV (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK DALLAS,RES DEPT,POB 655906,DALLAS,TX 75265, USA. NR 6 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA LAUSANNE PI LAUSANNE PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE, SWITZERLAND SN 0165-1765 J9 ECON LETT JI Econ. Lett. PD SEP PY 1996 VL 52 IS 3 BP 293 EP 298 DI 10.1016/S0165-1765(96)00853-1 PG 6 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA VY257 UT WOS:A1996VY25700014 ER PT J AU Orphanides, A AF Orphanides, A TI Optimal reform postponement SO ECONOMICS LETTERS LA English DT Article DE inflation; stabilization; external aid ID INFLATION AB The postponement of a reform program recognized to be necessary to control inflation is examined as a decision in an optimal control framework. With a deteriorating and increasingly costlier inflation, it is found that reforms are both more likely to be implemented and more likely to fail as inflation rises. Factors suggesting improved future conditions for a reform, such as the possibility of external aid, induce further postponement. Indexation, and any other measures that reduce the current costs of inaction have the same effect. RP Orphanides, A (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,DIV MONETARY AFFAIRS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 12 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA LAUSANNE PI LAUSANNE PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE, SWITZERLAND SN 0165-1765 J9 ECON LETT JI Econ. Lett. PD SEP PY 1996 VL 52 IS 3 BP 299 EP 307 DI 10.1016/S0165-1765(96)00875-0 PG 9 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA VY257 UT WOS:A1996VY25700015 ER PT J AU McDonough, WJ AF McDonough, WJ TI The challenge to US business SO HARVARD BUSINESS REVIEW LA English DT Article RP McDonough, WJ (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,NEW YORK,NY 10045, USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 2 PU HARVARD BUSINESS REVIEW PI BOULDER PA SUBSCRIBER SERVICE, PO BOX 52623, BOULDER, CO 80322-2623 SN 0017-8012 J9 HARVARD BUS REV JI Harv. Bus. Rev. PD SEP-OCT PY 1996 VL 74 IS 5 BP 125 EP 125 PG 1 WC Business; Management SC Business & Economics GA VE337 UT WOS:A1996VE33700020 ER PT J AU McAllister, PH Mingo, JJ AF McAllister, PH Mingo, JJ TI Bank capital requirements for securitized loan pools SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article DE bank capital; credit risk; securitization AB This paper analyzes the riskiness of credit enhancements offered on securitized pools of commercial and industrial loans. It develops a technique for allocating capital to such credit enhancements, based on setting the expected value of the credit losses in excess of allocated capital equal to the expected value of losses beyond required capital on the original loan pool. The resulting capital allocations are compared with those derived from a more general, bank-wide capital decision-rule, as well as newly published agency proposals regarding capital for credit enhancements. C1 FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. CONSTELLAT FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT,NEW YORK,NY 10017. NR 9 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 0 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD SEP PY 1996 VL 20 IS 8 BP 1381 EP 1405 DI 10.1016/0378-4266(96)00003-9 PG 25 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA VP311 UT WOS:A1996VP31100005 ER PT J AU Chirinko, RS AF Chirinko, RS TI Investment under uncertainty - Dixit,A, Pindyck,R SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS & CONTROL LA English DT Book Review C1 FED RESERVE BANK,KANSAS CITY,MO 64198. RP Chirinko, RS (reprint author), EMORY UNIV,DEPT ECON,ATLANTA,GA 30322, USA. NR 1 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 0 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0165-1889 J9 J ECON DYN CONTROL JI J. Econ. Dyn. Control PD SEP-OCT PY 1996 VL 20 IS 9-10 BP 1801 EP 1808 DI 10.1016/0165-1889(95)00922-1 PG 8 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA VM943 UT WOS:A1996VM94300015 ER PT J AU Engen, EM Gale, WG Scholz, JK AF Engen, EM Gale, WG Scholz, JK TI The illusory effects of saving incentives on saving SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES LA English DT Article ID INDIVIDUAL RETIREMENT; IRAS; INFLATION; ACCOUNTS; CHOICE; MARKET; STOCK C1 BROOKINGS INST, WASHINGTON, DC 20036 USA. UNIV WISCONSIN, MADISON, WI USA. RP Engen, EM (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD, WASHINGTON, DC USA. NR 65 TC 99 Z9 99 U1 1 U2 8 PU AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY, STE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 USA SN 0895-3309 J9 J ECON PERSPECT JI J. Econ. Perspect. PD FAL PY 1996 VL 10 IS 4 BP 113 EP 138 PG 26 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA VY707 UT WOS:A1996VY70700007 ER PT J AU Kroszner, RS Strahan, PE AF Kroszner, RS Strahan, PE TI Regulatory incentives and the thrift crisis: Dividends, mutual-to-stock conversions, and financial distress SO JOURNAL OF FINANCE LA English DT Article ID OWNERSHIP STRUCTURE; DEPOSIT INSURANCE; SAVINGS; COSTS; LOANS AB During the 1980s, insolvency of individual thrifts and the thrift deposit insurer created severe incentive problems. Lacking cash to close insolvent thrifts, regulators induced nearly $10 billion of private capital to flow into the industry through mutual-to-stock conversions. We test a theory of how regulators encouraged capital-impaired mutual thrifts to convert by permitting them to pay dividends rather than rebuild capital. We estimate the costs of this policy and interpret the 1991 Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Improvement Act as requiring regulators to impose restraints on depository institutions parallel to debt covenants that pc-event capital distributions by nonfinancial firms experiencing distress. C1 FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,NEW YORK,NY. RP Kroszner, RS (reprint author), UNIV CHICAGO,GRAD SCH BUSINESS,CHICAGO,IL 60637, USA. NR 43 TC 42 Z9 42 U1 2 U2 12 PU AMER FINANCE ASSN PI NEW YORK PA 44 WEST FOURTH ST, STE 9-190, NEW YORK, NY 10012 SN 0022-1082 J9 J FINANC JI J. Financ. PD SEP PY 1996 VL 51 IS 4 BP 1285 EP 1319 DI 10.2307/2329395 PG 35 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA VC683 UT WOS:A1996VC68300007 ER PT J AU Shaffer, S AF Shaffer, S TI Evidence of discrimination in lending: An extension SO JOURNAL OF FINANCE LA English DT Article AB We generalize the model of Ferguson and Peters (1995) to allow for unequal recovery rates in the event of default by majority borrowers Versus minority borrowers. This simple extension has two direct implications: (i) a uniform credit policy, as defined by Ferguson and Peters, entails cross-subsidization across groups; and(ii) it is possible for a profit-maximizing (and therefore economically nondiscriminatory) lending policy to generate lower average default rates among minority borrowers than among majority borrowers. RP Shaffer, S (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK PHILADELPHIA,PHILADELPHIA,PA, USA. NR 6 TC 5 Z9 5 U1 0 U2 5 PU AMER FINANCE ASSN PI NEW YORK PA 44 WEST FOURTH ST, STE 9-190, NEW YORK, NY 10012 SN 0022-1082 J9 J FINANC JI J. Financ. PD SEP PY 1996 VL 51 IS 4 BP 1551 EP 1554 PG 4 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA VC683 UT WOS:A1996VC68300017 ER PT J AU Degennaro, RP Thomson, JB AF Degennaro, RP Thomson, JB TI Capital-forbearance and thrifts: Examining the costs of regulatory gambling SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH LA English DT Article ID LOSSES AB This article estimates losses embedded in the capital positions of the 996 FSLIC-insured savings and loan institutions that did not meet capital standards on December 31, 1979. We compare the estimated cost of resolving the insolvencies of these institutions in 1980 with the actual failure-resolution costs for those that were closed by August 31, 1994. Our most conservative estimates, considering only the direct costs associated with delayed closure of only the 372 thrifts that were subsequently closed as independent institutions, show that these costs exceed estimates of the cost of prompt resolution by over 16 billion 1979-dollars. C1 FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,CLEVELAND,OH. RP Degennaro, RP (reprint author), UNIV TENNESSEE,KNOXVILLE,TN 37996, USA. NR 26 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 0 U2 2 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0920-8550 J9 J FINANC SERV RES JI J. Financ. Serv. Res. PD SEP PY 1996 VL 10 IS 3 BP 199 EP 211 DI 10.1007/BF00114084 PG 13 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA VT043 UT WOS:A1996VT04300001 ER PT J AU Hunter, WC Verbrugge, JA Whidbee, DA AF Hunter, WC Verbrugge, JA Whidbee, DA TI Risk taking and failure in de novo savings and loans in the 1980s SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH LA English DT Article ID DEPOSIT INSURANCE; BANKING; DEREGULATION; PERFORMANCE; POLICY AB This article examines failure rates in de novo S&Ls that initiated operations during the 1980-1986 period. Overall failure rates are similar to those for existing institutions but are found to vary significantly by location, time of charter, and organizational form. Both univariate tests and results from a probability-of-failure model indicate that inadequate capital, economic stress, poor management of higher risk lending allowed by broader powers, and operating inefficiencies contributed significantly to the likelihood of failure. Use of brokered funds and rapid asset growth are also significantly related to failure likelihood. interestingly, for those S&Ls which eventually failed, rapid asset growth and high proportions of nonperforming assets actually delayed the timing of their failure. We interpret this to be the result of regulatory forbearance. We also find significant differences between the financial characteristics of de novo and non-de novo S&Ls. C1 GEORGETOWN UNIV,DEPT BANKING & FINANCE,ATHENS,GA 30602. CALIF STATE UNIV SACRAMENTO,SCH BUSINESS ADM,SACRAMENTO,CA 95819. RP Hunter, WC (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,230 S LA SALLE ST,CHICAGO,IL 60604, USA. NR 39 TC 7 Z9 7 U1 1 U2 5 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0920-8550 J9 J FINANC SERV RES JI J. Financ. Serv. Res. PD SEP PY 1996 VL 10 IS 3 BP 235 EP 271 DI 10.1007/BF00114086 PG 37 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA VT043 UT WOS:A1996VT04300003 ER PT J AU Duca, JV AF Duca, JV TI Deposit deregulation and the sensitivity of housing SO JOURNAL OF HOUSING ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID DEMAND AB This study assesses whether regulatory actions account for major changes in estimates of important housing coefficients since the late 1970s. Results imply that the bulk of these changes owe to the end of Reg Q and that Reg Q measures need to account for the introduction of deposit instruments in the late 1970s. Findings imply that models of the aggregate housing stock are unlikely to yield coefficients that are stable enough for practical use unless they accurately control for regulatory changes. Ln this regard, accounting for small saver or money market certificates yields significant improvements over a naive Reg Q measure. (C) 1996 Academic Press, Inc. RP Duca, JV (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK DALLAS,RES DEPT,POB 655906,DALLAS,TX 75265, USA. NR 19 TC 6 Z9 6 U1 0 U2 2 PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC JNL-COMP SUBSCRIPTIONS PI SAN DIEGO PA 525 B ST, STE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 SN 1051-1377 J9 J HOUS ECON JI J. Hous. Econ. PD SEP PY 1996 VL 5 IS 3 BP 207 EP 226 DI 10.1006/jhec.1996.0011 PG 20 WC Economics; Urban Studies SC Business & Economics; Urban Studies GA VL603 UT WOS:A1996VL60300001 ER PT J AU Huck, P AF Huck, P TI Men at work: Labourers and building craftsmen in the towns of northern England, 1450-1750 - Woodward,D SO JOURNAL OF INTERDISCIPLINARY HISTORY LA English DT Book Review RP Huck, P (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,CHICAGO,IL 60604, USA. NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU MIT PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA 55 HAYWARD ST JOURNALS DEPT, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 SN 0022-1953 J9 J INTERDISCIPL HIST JI J. Interdiscip. Hist. PD FAL PY 1996 VL 27 IS 2 BP 300 EP 301 DI 10.2307/205174 PG 2 WC History SC History GA VF817 UT WOS:A1996VF81700021 ER PT J AU Segal, LM AF Segal, LM TI Flexible employment: Composition and trends SO JOURNAL OF LABOR RESEARCH LA English DT Article RP Segal, LM (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,CHICAGO,IL 60604, USA. NR 8 TC 16 Z9 16 U1 1 U2 1 PU JOURNAL OF LABOR RESEARCH PI FAIRFAX PA DEPT ECONOMICS GEORGE MASON UNIV, FAIRFAX, VA 22030-4444 SN 0195-3613 J9 J LABOR RES JI J. Labor Res. PD FAL PY 1996 VL 17 IS 4 BP 525 EP 542 DI 10.1007/BF02685797 PG 18 WC Industrial Relations & Labor SC Business & Economics GA VA038 UT WOS:A1996VA03800002 ER PT J AU Maki, DM AF Maki, DM TI Portfolio shuffling and tax reform SO NATIONAL TAX JOURNAL LA English DT Article AB This paper analyzes the response of households to the provision in the Tax Reform Act of 1986 that phased out the deductibility of interest paid on consumer debt. The evidence suggests that the policy goals of the provision were frustrated because households shuffled their portfolios, substituting mortgage debt for consumer debt. High-income homeowners appear to have shuffled more of their debt and thus increased their share of the benefits of the mortgage interest deduction. One reason for this difference in shuffling may be that high-income homeowners scored better on measures of financial sophistication, and better scores appear to predict greater shuffling. Policy options that would reduce the use of mortgage debt for nonhousing purchases are discussed. RP Maki, DM (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 17 TC 15 Z9 15 U1 1 U2 4 PU NATL TAX ASSN PI COLUMBUS PA 5310 EAST MAIN ST, COLUMBUS, OH 43213 SN 0028-0283 J9 NATL TAX J JI Natl. Tax J. PD SEP PY 1996 VL 49 IS 3 BP 317 EP 329 PG 13 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA VG748 UT WOS:A1996VG74800001 ER PT J AU Engen, EM Gale, WG AF Engen, EM Gale, WG TI Tax-preferred assets and debt, and the tax reform act of 1986: Some implications for fundamental tax reform SO NATIONAL TAX JOURNAL LA English DT Article AB This paper focuses on two aspects of the tax changes enacted in the Tax Reform Act of 1986 (TRA86). First, the TRA86 phased out fax deductions for interest on consumer debt, which contributed to a marked shift in the composition of household debt. Second, the TRA86 restricted the tax deductibility of contributions to individual retirement accounts (IRAs) for some higher-income households. This appears to have contributed to, but is not solely responsible for, the shift in the composition of some households' portfolios of tax-preferred saving incentive plans. This paper also discusses the interaction of household debt and 401 (k) plans following the TRA86. The aspects of the TRA86 focused upon in this paper appear to represent examples of more typical responses to tax changes: changes in the composition of economic activity but with little change in the real level of economic activity. This conclusion is consistent with the hierarchy of taxpayer responses suggested by Slemrod (1990, 1995) and yields some potentially relevant implications for fundamental tax reform. C1 BROOKINGS INST,WASHINGTON,DC 20036. RP Engen, EM (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 25 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 0 U2 3 PU NATL TAX ASSN PI COLUMBUS PA 5310 EAST MAIN ST, COLUMBUS, OH 43213 SN 0028-0283 J9 NATL TAX J JI Natl. Tax J. PD SEP PY 1996 VL 49 IS 3 BP 331 EP 339 PG 9 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA VG748 UT WOS:A1996VG74800002 ER PT J AU Bull, N Lindsey, LB AF Bull, N Lindsey, LB TI Monetary implications of tax reforms SO NATIONAL TAX JOURNAL LA English DT Article ID OPTIMAL TAXATION; GROWTH; POLICY AB Recently, several proposals for significant reform of the federal tax system have received serious political consideration, and many sound arguments for and against these proposals have been made. Although we summarize some of the economic arguments in this paper, it is not our purpose to discuss the merits of the proposals. Rather, our purpose is to show that, whatever proposal is adopted, it will be affected by and will affect the making and carrying out of monetary policy. RP Bull, N (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 26 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 2 PU NATL TAX ASSN PI COLUMBUS PA 5310 EAST MAIN ST, COLUMBUS, OH 43213 SN 0028-0283 J9 NATL TAX J JI Natl. Tax J. PD SEP PY 1996 VL 49 IS 3 BP 359 EP 379 PG 21 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA VG748 UT WOS:A1996VG74800004 ER PT J AU Simons, K AF Simons, K TI Value at risk - New approaches to risk management SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article AB Managing risk has always been an integral part of banking. In the past two years an approach to risk management called ''Value at Risk'' has been accepted by both practitioners and regulators as the ''right'' way to measure risk, becoming a de facto industry standard. Yet, the danger is that overreliance on value at risk can give risk managers a false sense of security or lull them into complacency. Value at risk is only one of many tools of managing risk, and it is based on a number of unrealistic assumptions. There is no generally accepted way to calculate it, and various methods can yield widely different results. This article describes several common methods for calculating value at risk and highlights important assumptions and methodological issues. The author discusses the strengths and weaknesses of value at risk, pointing out that its use has created a common language for discussions about risk and prompted more dialogue about risk issues. She cautions, however, that successful risk management is a much broader task, which depends crucially on appropriate incentives and internal controls. RP Simons, K (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02210, USA. NR 6 TC 8 Z9 8 U1 1 U2 3 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD SEP-OCT PY 1996 BP 3 EP & PG 12 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA VN059 UT WOS:A1996VN05900001 ER PT J AU Browne, LE Gleason, J AF Browne, LE Gleason, J TI The saving mystery, or where did the money go? SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article AB Of great concern and puzzlement to many has been the decline in the U.S. personal saving rate. From 8 percent of personal income 20 years ago, saving has fallen to less than 4 percent. This is a matter of concern because saving and investment are closely linked, and investment is believed critical to productivity gains and a rising standard of living. The decline in saving is also a source of puzzlement because it runs counter to many people's perception of what is happening. This article investigates the decline in saving, focusing on ''where the money went.'' The authors find that rising expenditures on medical services are absorbing a growing fraction of income. Thus, the saving problem is not about thrift versus profligacy, but rather a competition between more and better medical care, on the one hand, and more investment, on the other. They point out that efforts to stimulate saving are only one way to increase the economy's productive capacity, and the ultimate goal is higher standards of living. RP Browne, LE (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,RES,BOSTON,MA 02210, USA. NR 10 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 2 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD SEP-OCT PY 1996 BP 15 EP & PG 14 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA VN059 UT WOS:A1996VN05900002 ER PT J AU Fortune, P AF Fortune, P TI Do municipal bond yields forecast tax policy? SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID MARKET; DEBT AB During the recent flat tax debate, interest rates on long-term municipal bonds rose relative to the rate on U.S. Treasury bonds. This was widely attributed to expectations of a reduction in future tax rates. While an axiom of finance states that current asset prices reflect expectations about future events, there is no consensus on how sensitive municipal bond yields are to expectations about: future tax rates. This study assesses that question by examining the relationship between the implicit tax rate and actual future tax rates. Efficient markets theory predicts that the implicit lax rate-the tax rate that equates the after-tax yield on a Treasury bond to the yield on a tax-exempt bond-will be an excellent predictor of future tax rates. The author finds that although the Efficient Markets prediction is not supported, implicit tax rates do contain some information about future tax rates. The information content in implicit tar rates is particularly high around the time of major tax debates that have resulted in significant changes in tax rates. At other times, including the flat tax debate of 1995-96, implicit tax rates carry little information about future tax rates. RP Fortune, P (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,RES,BOSTON,MA 02210, USA. NR 14 TC 12 Z9 12 U1 0 U2 2 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD SEP-OCT PY 1996 BP 29 EP & PG 21 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA VN059 UT WOS:A1996VN05900003 ER PT J AU Peek, J Rosengren, ES AF Peek, J Rosengren, ES TI The use of capital ratios to trigger intervention in problem banks: Too little, too late SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article AB A wave of depository institution failures and dramatic losses to deposit insurance funds occurred in the 1980s and continued into the 1990s. In response, the Congress passed a series of bank regulatory acts intended to address the problems that led to the crisis and prevent its recurrence. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Improvement Act of 1991 (FDICIA) was the capstone of this transformation of banking legislation, with two key provisions designed to reduce the cost of troubled banks to the deposit insurance fund: early closure of failing institutions, and early supervisory intervention in problem banks, referred to as prompt corrective action. This article considers whether the capital ratio thresholds that trigger prompt corrective action intervention provide sufficient lead time for successful intervention at troubled banks. The study finds that because prompt corrective action is based on a lagging indicator of a bank's financial health, it is Likely to trigger intervention in problem banks only after they have been identified by examiners, who rely on far more information than the capital ratio. The authors propose two simple measures to improve the current triggers for prompt corrective action. C1 FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02210. RP Peek, J (reprint author), BOSTON COLL,CHESTNUT HILL,MA 02167, USA. NR 9 TC 6 Z9 6 U1 1 U2 3 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD SEP-OCT PY 1996 BP 49 EP & PG 11 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA VN059 UT WOS:A1996VN05900004 ER PT J AU Goswami, G Noe, TH Rebello, MJ AF Goswami, G Noe, TH Rebello, MJ TI Collusion in uniform-price auctions: Experimental evidence and implications for treasury auctions SO REVIEW OF FINANCIAL STUDIES LA English DT Article ID EQUILIBRIA; STRATEGIES; BEHAVIOR; GAMES AB We provide experimental evidence that nonbinding preplay communication between bidders in auctions of shares facilitates the adoption of equilibrium strategies: collusive strategies in uniform-price auctions, and the unique equilibrium in undominated strategies in discriminately auctions. When communication between bidders is introduced clearing prices and auctioneer profits in uniform-price auctions fan below those observed in discriminatory auctions. This evidence suggests that uniform-price auctions of Treasury securities may result in lower revenues than the currently employed discriminatory procedure. C1 GEORGIA STATE UNIV,COLL BUSINESS ADM,DEPT FINANCE,ATLANTA,GA 30303. FORDHAM UNIV,BRONX,NY 10458. FED RESERVE BANK ATLANTA,ATLANTA,GA. NR 23 TC 22 Z9 23 U1 0 U2 5 PU OXFORD UNIV PRESS INC PI CARY PA JOURNALS DEPT, 2001 EVANS RD, CARY, NC 27513 SN 0893-9454 J9 REV FINANC STUD JI Rev. Financ. Stud. PD FAL PY 1996 VL 9 IS 3 BP 757 EP 785 DI 10.1093/rfs/9.3.757 PG 29 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA VG188 UT WOS:A1996VG18800002 ER PT J AU Berlin, M John, K Saunders, A AF Berlin, M John, K Saunders, A TI Bank equity stakes in borrowing firms and financial distress SO REVIEW OF FINANCIAL STUDIES LA English DT Article ID DEBT; INFORMATION; CONTRACTS; JAPAN; RESTRUCTURINGS; INVESTMENT; COSTS AB We derive the optimal financial claim for a bank when the borrowing firm's uninformed stake-holders depend on the bank: to establish whether tbe firm is distressed and whether concessions by stakeholders are necessary. The bank's financial claim is designed to ensure that it cannot collude with a healthy firm's owners to seek unnecessary concessions or to collude with a distressed firm's owners to claim that the firm is healthy. To prove that a request for concessions has not come from a healthy firm/bank coalition, the bank must hold either a very small or a very large equity stake when the firm enters distress. To prove that a distressed firm and the bank: have not colluded to claim that the firm is healthy, the bank may need to hold equity under routine financial conditions. C1 NYU,STERN SCH BUSINESS,DEPT FINANCE,NEW YORK,NY 10012. FED RESERVE BANK PHILADELPHIA,PHILADELPHIA,PA. NR 33 TC 23 Z9 23 U1 1 U2 5 PU OXFORD UNIV PRESS INC PI CARY PA JOURNALS DEPT, 2001 EVANS RD, CARY, NC 27513 SN 0893-9454 J9 REV FINANC STUD JI Rev. Financ. Stud. PD FAL PY 1996 VL 9 IS 3 BP 889 EP 919 DI 10.1093/rfs/9.3.889 PG 31 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA VG188 UT WOS:A1996VG18800006 ER PT J AU Lovonian, ME AF Lovonian, ME TI Transitions in rural financial markets: Visions of future bank structure: Discussion SO AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Editorial Material RP Lovonian, ME (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK SAN FRANCISCO,SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94105, USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU AMER AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS ASSOC PI AMES PA 1110 BUCKEYE AVE, AMES, IA 50010-8063 SN 0002-9092 J9 AM J AGR ECON JI Am. J. Agr. Econ. PD AUG PY 1996 VL 78 IS 3 BP 734 EP 735 DI 10.2307/1243295 PG 2 WC Agricultural Economics & Policy; Economics SC Agriculture; Business & Economics GA VN895 UT WOS:A1996VN89500028 ER PT J AU Mattoon, RH Aguilar, LM AF Mattoon, RH Aguilar, LM TI States and provinces in the international economy - Brown,DM, Fry,EH SO ENVIRONMENT AND PLANNING C-GOVERNMENT AND POLICY LA English DT Book Review RP Mattoon, RH (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO, REG POLICY STUDIES GRP, CHICAGO, IL USA. NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 1 PU PION LTD PI LONDON PA 207 BRONDESBURY PARK, LONDON NW2 5JN, ENGLAND SN 0263-774X J9 ENVIRON PLANN C JI Environ. Plan. C-Gov. Policy PD AUG PY 1996 VL 14 IS 3 BP 408 EP 410 PG 3 WC Environmental Studies; Public Administration SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Public Administration GA VB129 UT WOS:A1996VB12900009 ER PT J AU Mattoon, RH Aguilar, LM AF Mattoon, RH Aguilar, LM TI Metropolitan governance: American/Canadian intergovernmental perspectives - Rothblatt,DN, Sanctom,A SO ENVIRONMENT AND PLANNING C-GOVERNMENT AND POLICY LA English DT Book Review RP Mattoon, RH (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO, REG POLICY STUDIES GRP, CHICAGO, IL USA. NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 3 PU PION LTD PI LONDON PA 207 BRONDESBURY PARK, LONDON NW2 5JN, ENGLAND SN 0263-774X J9 ENVIRON PLANN C JI Environ. Plan. C-Gov. Policy PD AUG PY 1996 VL 14 IS 3 BP 408 EP 410 PG 3 WC Environmental Studies; Public Administration SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Public Administration GA VB129 UT WOS:A1996VB12900008 ER PT J AU Mattoon, RH Aguilar, LM AF Mattoon, RH Aguilar, LM TI Representation and policy formation in federal systems - Olson,DM, Franks,CES SO ENVIRONMENT AND PLANNING C-GOVERNMENT AND POLICY LA English DT Book Review RP Mattoon, RH (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO, REG POLICY STUDIES GRP, CHICAGO, IL USA. NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 1 PU PION LTD PI LONDON PA 207 BRONDESBURY PARK, LONDON NW2 5JN, ENGLAND SN 0263-774X J9 ENVIRON PLANN C JI Environ. Plan. C-Gov. Policy PD AUG PY 1996 VL 14 IS 3 BP 408 EP 410 PG 3 WC Environmental Studies; Public Administration SC Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Public Administration GA VB129 UT WOS:A1996VB12900010 ER PT J AU Mercenier, J Schmitt, N AF Mercenier, J Schmitt, N TI On sunk costs and trade liberalization in applied general equilibrium SO INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID IMPERFECT COMPETITION; SCALE ECONOMIES; PRODUCT DIFFERENTIATION; ENTRY; INDUSTRY; MARKET; COLLUSION; OLIGOPOLY; WELFARE; TARIFFS AB We argue that the rationalization gains often predicted by static applied general equilibrium models with imperfect competition and scale economies are artificially boosted by an unrealistic treatment of fixed costs. We introduce sunk costs into one such model calibrated with real-world data. We show how this changes the oligopoly game in a way significant enough to affect, both qualitatively and quantitatively, the outcome of a trade liberalization exercise. C1 FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,RES DEPT,MINNEAPOLIS,MN. SIMON FRASER UNIV,BURNABY,BC V5A 1S6,CANADA. RP Mercenier, J (reprint author), UNIV MONTREAL,MONTREAL,PQ H3C 3J7,CANADA. NR 45 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 0 U2 5 PU UNIV PENN PI PHILADELPHIA PA DEPT ECON MCNEIL BLDG CR, PHILADELPHIA, PA 19174 SN 0020-6598 J9 INT ECON REV JI Int. Econ. Rev. PD AUG PY 1996 VL 37 IS 3 BP 553 EP 571 DI 10.2307/2527441 PG 19 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA VB613 UT WOS:A1996VB61300003 ER PT J AU Spiegel, MM AF Spiegel, MM TI ''Burden sharing'' in sovereign debt reduction SO JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE international lending; debt reduction; seniority ID CREDITORS; OVERHANG; BUYBACKS AB We examine a concerted debt reduction deal between a sovereign debtor, a private creditor, and an official creditor, who insures the deposits of the commercial bank. Our results show that a weakening of the financial position of the commercial bank reduces the contribution of the commercial bank and increases that of the official creditor, without affecting the net terms faced by the debtor. This result is robust to changes in seniority. Moreover, leaving both creditor values unchanged requires that commercial banks retire debt at ''unfairly'' high prices, while official creditors make a net contribution. RP Spiegel, MM (reprint author), FED RES BANK SAN FRANCISCO,DEPT ECON RES,POB 7702,SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94120, USA. NR 15 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3878 J9 J DEV ECON JI J. Dev. Econ. PD AUG PY 1996 VL 50 IS 2 BP 337 EP 351 DI 10.1016/S0304-3878(96)00405-1 PG 15 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA VZ983 UT WOS:A1996VZ98300006 ER PT J AU Lacker, JM Schreft, SL AF Lacker, JM Schreft, SL TI Money and credit as means of payment SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE money; credit; velocity; interest rates; inflation ID IN-ADVANCE MODELS; MONETARY ECONOMY; INTEREST-RATES; GROWTH; INFLATION; VELOCITY; SYSTEM; TAX AB A stochastic economic environment is presented in which the mix of cash and resource-costly credit used as means of payment is endogenous. For reasonable values of the credit cost parameter, velocity can be quite variable and sensitive to the nominal interest rate. Those parameter values also generate larger welfare costs of inflation than have been found previously and a sizable impact of inflation on real interest rates. C1 FED RESERVE BANK RICHMOND,RES DEPT,RICHMOND,VA 23261. NR 31 TC 25 Z9 25 U1 0 U2 6 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD AUG PY 1996 VL 38 IS 1 BP 3 EP 23 DI 10.1016/0304-3932(96)01268-8 PG 21 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA VH061 UT WOS:A1996VH06100001 ER PT J AU Chirinko, RS Schaller, H AF Chirinko, RS Schaller, H TI Bubbles, fundamentals, and investment: A multiple equation testing strategy SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE real-financial interactions; investment; stock market; testing ID STOCK-MARKET; MOMENTS ESTIMATORS; GENERALIZED-METHOD; MATTER; PRICES AB Dramatic fluctuations in the stock market raise questions about whether actual asset prices correspond to the expected present value of future cash flow and whether deviations from this fundamental price can affect real investment spending. Even if there are deviations from fundamental price, they may not distort real behavior if firms ignore these deviations in making their investment decisions. On the other band, overvaluation of equities could provide firms with a relatively cheap source of finance and might therefore influence investment. To evaluate these issues, this paper introduces a new econometric testing strategy, and assesses the existence of stock market bubbles and the sensitivity of investment spending to bubbles. We estimate the Q and Euler equations in a simultaneous equations model and exploit the idea that these equations reflect different information about the stock market and investment spending. Based on U.S. data for 1911-1987, our formal statistical tests indicate that bubbles exist but real investment decisions are based on fundamentals. A variety of robustness checks and three types of collateral evidence corroborate this interpretation. C1 FED RESERVE BANK,KANSAS CITY,MO 64198. CARLETON UNIV,DEPT ECON,OTTAWA,ON K1A 5B6,CANADA. RP Chirinko, RS (reprint author), EMORY UNIV,DEPT ECON,ATLANTA,GA 30322, USA. NR 28 TC 22 Z9 22 U1 0 U2 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD AUG PY 1996 VL 38 IS 1 BP 47 EP 76 DI 10.1016/0304-3932(96)01267-6 PG 30 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA VH061 UT WOS:A1996VH06100003 ER PT J AU Hakkio, CS Rush, M Schmidt, TJ AF Hakkio, CS Rush, M Schmidt, TJ TI The marginal income tax rate schedule from 1930 to 1990 SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE Income tax; Marginal tax rates; Economic growth; Computer program ID UNITED-STATES; UNEMPLOYMENT; GROWTH; POLICY; MONEY AB Although it is well known that marginal income tax rates vary with income, few economists have studied the effect on real GDP of the distribution of marginal income tax rates, This omission is probably because data on the distribution do not exist. We remedy this shortcoming by providing a computer program that calculates marginal income tax rates for all income levels for the years 1930 to 1990. We conduct a preliminary empirical investigation into the effect of taxes on economic growth. We find that lowering taxes significantly raises economic growth and that changing the tax rate schedule also has significant effects on economic growth. C1 UNIV FLORIDA,GAINESVILLE,FL 32611. RP Hakkio, CS (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK,KANSAS CITY,MO 64198, USA. NR 22 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 0 U2 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD AUG PY 1996 VL 38 IS 1 BP 117 EP 138 DI 10.1016/0304-3932(96)01266-4 PG 22 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA VH061 UT WOS:A1996VH06100006 ER PT J AU Hall, GJ AF Hall, GJ TI Overtime, effort, and the propagation of business cycle shocks SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE business cycle fluctuations; dynamic general equilibrium; shock propagation; maximum likelihood ID INDIVISIBLE LABOR; FLUCTUATIONS AB This paper presents and estimates a variant of Hansen and Sargent's (1988) real business cycle model with straight time and overtime. The model presented has only one latent variable, the state of technology, yet it does a better job propagating and magnifying shocks than the labor hoarding models which incorporate unobserved effort. This model, as well as a version of Burnside, Eichenbaum, and Rebelo's (1993) labor hoarding model, is estimated using maximum likelihood. The maximum likelihood parameter estimates are compared to those using GMM. RP Hall, GJ (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,ECON RES DEPT,CHICAGO,IL 60604, USA. NR 18 TC 13 Z9 13 U1 1 U2 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD AUG PY 1996 VL 38 IS 1 BP 139 EP 160 DI 10.1016/0304-3932(96)01270-6 PG 22 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA VH061 UT WOS:A1996VH06100007 ER PT J AU Croushore, D AF Croushore, D TI Ricardian equivalence with wage-rate uncertainty SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID OPTIMUM INCOME TAXATION; PRECAUTIONARY SAVINGS; CONSUMPTION; INSURANCE; DEFICITS; POLICY RP Croushore, D (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK PHILADELPHIA,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19106, USA. NR 27 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 1 U2 6 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1996 VL 28 IS 3 BP 279 EP 293 DI 10.2307/2077975 PN 1 PG 15 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA VB751 UT WOS:A1996VB75100001 ER PT J AU Pilloff, SJ AF Pilloff, SJ TI Performance changes and shareholder wealth creation associated with mergers of publicly traded banking institutions SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID RETURNS RP Pilloff, SJ (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 24 TC 49 Z9 50 U1 1 U2 4 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1996 VL 28 IS 3 BP 294 EP 310 DI 10.2307/2077976 PN 1 PG 17 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA VB751 UT WOS:A1996VB75100002 ER PT J AU Kennickell, AB Kwast, ML StarrMcCluer, M AF Kennickell, AB Kwast, ML StarrMcCluer, M TI Households' deposit insurance coverage: Evidence and analysis of potential reforms SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID MARKET; BANKING; DEBT; RISK RP Kennickell, AB (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,DIV RES & STAT,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 15 TC 5 Z9 5 U1 1 U2 5 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1996 VL 28 IS 3 BP 311 EP 322 DI 10.2307/2077977 PN 1 PG 12 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA VB751 UT WOS:A1996VB75100003 ER PT J AU Gruben, WC Welch, JH AF Gruben, WC Welch, JH TI Default risk and dollarization in Mexico SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID CURRENCY SUBSTITUTION; MONEY DEMAND; HYPOTHESIS C1 LEHMAN BROTHERS INC,GLOBAL ECON DEPT,LATIN AMER DIV,NEW YORK,NY. RP Gruben, WC (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK DALLAS,CTR LATIN AMER ECON,DALLAS,TX 75222, USA. NR 15 TC 7 Z9 7 U1 0 U2 2 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1996 VL 28 IS 3 BP 393 EP 401 DI 10.2307/2077982 PN 1 PG 9 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA VB751 UT WOS:A1996VB75100008 ER PT J AU Rogers, JH AF Rogers, JH TI Convertibility risk, default risk, and the Mexdollar anomaly - Reply SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID HYPOTHESIS; MEXICO RP Rogers, JH (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD,INT FINANCE DIV,WASHINGTON,DC, USA. NR 6 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 2 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1996 VL 28 IS 3 BP 402 EP 405 DI 10.2307/2077983 PN 1 PG 4 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA VB751 UT WOS:A1996VB75100009 ER PT J AU Sniderman, MS AF Sniderman, MS TI Derivatives and intermediation - A conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, November 1-3, 1995 - Preface SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Editorial Material RP Sniderman, MS (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,CLEVELAND,OH 44114, USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1996 VL 28 IS 3 BP 419 EP 420 PN 2 PG 2 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA VB752 UT WOS:A1996VB75200001 ER PT J AU Haubrich, JG Thomson, JB AF Haubrich, JG Thomson, JB TI Derivatives and intermediation - A conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, November 1-3, 1995 - Introduction SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article RP Haubrich, JG (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,CLEVELAND,OH 44114, USA. NR 2 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 1 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1996 VL 28 IS 3 BP 421 EP 425 DI 10.2307/2077889 PN 2 PG 5 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA VB752 UT WOS:A1996VB75200002 ER PT J AU Estrella, A AF Estrella, A TI The behavior of interest rates implied by the term structure of Eurodollar futures - Comment SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Derivatives and Intermediation CY NOV 01-03, 1995 CL CLEVELAND, OH SP Fed Reserve Bank Cleveland ID INFLATION; MODEL RP Estrella, A (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,FINANCIAL MARKETS & INST SECT,NEW YORK,NY 10045, USA. NR 13 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 1 U2 3 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1996 VL 28 IS 3 BP 447 EP 451 DI 10.2307/2077891 PN 2 PG 5 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA VB752 UT WOS:A1996VB75200004 ER PT J AU Bliss, RR Ritchken, P AF Bliss, RR Ritchken, P TI Empirical tests of two state-variable Heath-Jarrow-Morton models SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Derivatives and Intermediation CY NOV 01-03, 1995 CL CLEVELAND, OH SP Fed Reserve Bank Cleveland ID TERM STRUCTURE; CONTINGENT CLAIMS; RATES C1 CASE WESTERN RESERVE UNIV,WEATHERHEAD SCH MANAGEMENT,CLEVELAND,OH 44106. RP Bliss, RR (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK ATLANTA,RES DEPT,104 MARIETTA ST NW,ATLANTA,GA 30303, USA. NR 24 TC 7 Z9 7 U1 1 U2 3 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1996 VL 28 IS 3 BP 452 EP 476 DI 10.2307/2077892 PN 2 PG 25 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA VB752 UT WOS:A1996VB75200005 ER PT J AU Brewer, E Jackson, WE Moser, JT AF Brewer, E Jackson, WE Moser, JT TI Alligators in the swamp: The impact of derivatives on the financial performance of depository institutions SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Derivatives and Intermediation CY NOV 01-03, 1995 CL CLEVELAND, OH SP Fed Reserve Bank Cleveland ID INSURANCE; RISK; SAVINGS; FIRMS C1 UNIV N CAROLINA,KENAN FLAGLER BUSINESS SCH,CHAPEL HILL,NC 27515. RP Brewer, E (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,230 S LASALLE ST,CHICAGO,IL 60604, USA. NR 36 TC 9 Z9 9 U1 0 U2 3 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1996 VL 28 IS 3 BP 482 EP 497 PN 2 PG 16 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA VB752 UT WOS:A1996VB75200007 ER PT J AU Berger, AN AF Berger, AN TI Diffusion of financial innovations: The case of junk bonds and note issuance facilities - Comment SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Derivatives and Intermediation CY NOV 01-03, 1995 CL CLEVELAND, OH SP Fed Reserve Bank Cleveland RP Berger, AN (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 4 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 2 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD AUG PY 1996 VL 28 IS 3 BP 523 EP 526 DI 10.2307/2077897 PN 2 PG 4 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA VB752 UT WOS:A1996VB75200010 ER PT J AU Jayaratne, J Strahan, PE AF Jayaratne, J Strahan, PE TI The finance-growth nexus: Evidence from bank branch deregulation SO QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID ECONOMIC-DEVELOPMENT; INTERMEDIATION; PERFORMANCE; INDUSTRY; MARKETS AB This paper provides evidence that financial markets can directly affect economic growth by studying the relaxation of bank branch restrictions in the United States. We find that the rates of real, per capita growth in income and output increase significantly following intrastate branch reform. We also argue that the observed changes in growth are the result of changes in the banking system. Improvements in the quality of bank lending, not increased volume of bank lending, appear to be responsible for faster growth. RP Jayaratne, J (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,NEW YORK,NY 10045, USA. NR 38 TC 268 Z9 272 U1 4 U2 25 PU MIT PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA 55 HAYWARD ST JOURNALS DEPT, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 SN 0033-5533 J9 Q J ECON JI Q. J. Econ. PD AUG PY 1996 VL 111 IS 3 BP 639 EP 670 DI 10.2307/2946668 PG 32 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA VC459 UT WOS:A1996VC45900001 ER PT J AU Clarida, RH AF Clarida, RH TI Consumption, import prices, and the demand for imported consumer durables: A structural econometric investigation SO REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS LA English DT Article ID COINTEGRATION AB This paper derives and estimates a rational expectations optimizing model of the demand for imported consumer durable goods. We are unable to reject the essential empirical implications of the model, and obtain sensible estimates of the price and income elasticities of the demand for imported consumer durables. C1 NATL BUR ECON RES,NEW YORK,NY 10003. FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,NEW YORK,NY 10045. INT MONETARY FUND,WASHINGTON,DC 20431. RP Clarida, RH (reprint author), COLUMBIA UNIV,NEW YORK,NY 10027, USA. NR 19 TC 5 Z9 5 U1 0 U2 2 PU MIT PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA 55 HAYWARD ST JOURNALS DEPT, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 SN 0034-6535 J9 REV ECON STAT JI Rev. Econ. Stat. PD AUG PY 1996 VL 78 IS 3 BP 369 EP 374 DI 10.2307/2109783 PG 6 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA VE699 UT WOS:A1996VE69900001 ER PT J AU Keane, MP Prasad, ES AF Keane, MP Prasad, ES TI The employment and wage effects of oil price changes: A sectoral analysis SO REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS LA English DT Article ID BUSINESS-CYCLE; MODEL; HETEROGENEITY; UNEMPLOYMENT; SELECTION; DEMAND; ENERGY; SHIFTS AB In this paper, we use micro panel data to examine the effects of oil price changes on employment and real wages, at the aggregate and industry levels. We also measure differences in the employment and wage responses for workers differentiated on the basis of skill level. We find that oil price increases result in a substantial decline in real wages for all workers, but raise the relative wage of skilled workers. The use of panel data econometric techniques to control for unobserved heterogeneity is essential to uncover this result, which is completely hidden in OLS estimates. While the short-run effect of an oil price increase on aggregate employment is negative, the long-run effect is in fact positive. We find that changes in oil prices induce changes in employment shares and relative wages across industries. However, we find little evidence that oil price changes cause labor to consistently flow into those sectors with relative wage increases. C1 FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN. INT MONETARY FUND,WASHINGTON,DC 20431. RP Keane, MP (reprint author), UNIV MINNESOTA,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55455, USA. RI Keane, Michael/O-2840-2013 OI Keane, Michael/0000-0002-3918-1377 NR 19 TC 43 Z9 43 U1 2 U2 10 PU MIT PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA 55 HAYWARD ST JOURNALS DEPT, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 SN 0034-6535 J9 REV ECON STAT JI Rev. Econ. Stat. PD AUG PY 1996 VL 78 IS 3 BP 389 EP 400 DI 10.2307/2109786 PG 12 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA VE699 UT WOS:A1996VE69900004 ER PT J AU Hayes, KJ Ross, LB AF Hayes, KJ Ross, LB TI Measuring changes in multiproduct market structure: An application to US airlines SO REVIEW OF INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATION LA English DT Article DE market structure; subgroup decomposable; airline markets ID UNITED-STATES; AGGREGATE CONCENTRATION; MULTIMARKET CONTACT; INEQUALITY AB The Entropy Index decomposition property is utilized to construct an aggregate index of route concentration that accounts for the multiple products, customer preferences and industry concentration. The Directed Divergence Statistic, an aggregate index which measures changes in market structure at the airline specific level, is similarly decomposed. We find that route concentration more closely resembles a duopoly than an industry with 16 major carriers. Further, the Directed Divergence Statistic decomposition reveals that while the industry seems to have absorbed the loss of national three carriers, those remaining engineered substantial changes in their product offerings to accommodate passengers. C1 FED RESERVE BANK DALLAS,RES DEPT,DALLAS,TX 75265. E CAROLINA UNIV,DEPT ECON,GREENVILLE,NC 27858. RP Hayes, KJ (reprint author), SO METHODIST UNIV,DEPT ECON,DALLAS,TX 75275, USA. NR 27 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 4 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0889-938X J9 REV IND ORGAN JI Rev. Ind. Organ. PD AUG PY 1996 VL 11 IS 4 BP 493 EP 509 DI 10.1007/BF00157775 PG 17 WC Economics; Management SC Business & Economics GA VE687 UT WOS:A1996VE68700004 ER PT J AU Baily, MN Bartelsman, EJ Haltiwanger, J AF Baily, MN Bartelsman, EJ Haltiwanger, J TI Downsizing and productivity growth: Myth or reality? SO SMALL BUSINESS ECONOMICS LA English DT Article AB The conventional wisdom is that the rising productivity in the U.S. manufacturing sector in the 1980s has been driven by the apparently pervasive downsizing over this period. Aggregate evidence clearly shows falling employment accompanying the rise in productivity. In this paper, we examine the microeconomic evidence using the plant level data from the Longitudinal Research Database (LRD). In contrast to the conventional wisdom, we find that plants that increased employment as well as productivity contribute almost as much to overall productivity growth in the 1980s as the plants that increased productivity at the expense of employment. Further, there are striking differences by sector (defined by industry, size, region, wages, and ownership type) in the allocation of plants in terms of whether they upsize or downsize and whether they increase or decrease productivity. Nevertheless, in spite of the striking differences across sectors defined in a variety of ways, most of the variance of productivity and employment growth is accounted for by idiosyncratic factors. C1 NBER,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. US BUR CENSUS,SUITLAND,MD. RP Baily, MN (reprint author), UNIV MARYLAND,COLLEGE PK,MD 20742, USA. OI Bartelsman, Eric/0000-0001-7099-8513 NR 25 TC 44 Z9 44 U1 2 U2 14 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0921-898X J9 SMALL BUS ECON JI Small Bus. Econ. Group PD AUG PY 1996 VL 8 IS 4 BP 259 EP 278 DI 10.1007/BF00393276 PG 20 WC Business; Economics; Management SC Business & Economics GA VD484 UT WOS:A1996VD48400001 ER PT J AU Davis, SJ Haltiwanger, J Schuh, S AF Davis, SJ Haltiwanger, J Schuh, S TI Small business and job creation: Dissecting the myth and reassessing the facts (Reprinted from Labor Markets, Employment Policy & Job Creation, 1994) SO SMALL BUSINESS ECONOMICS LA English DT Reprint ID INNOVATION AB This paper investigates how job creation and destruction behavior varies by employer size in the U.S. manufacturing sector during the period 1972 to 1988. The paper also evaluates the empirical basis for conventional claims about the job-creating prowess of small businesses. The chief findings and conclusions fall into five categories: (1) Conventional wisdom about the job-creating prowess of small businesses rests on misleading interpretations of the data. (2) Many previous studies of the job creation process rely upon data that are not suitable for drawing inferences about the relationship between employer size and job creation. (3) Large plants and firms account for most newly-created and newly-destroyed manufacturing jobs. (4) Survival rates for new and existing manufacturing jobs increase sharply with employer size. (5) Smaller manufacturing firms and plants exhibit sharply higher gross rates of job creation but not higher net rates. C1 NATL BUR ECON RES,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. UNIV MARYLAND,COLLEGE PK,MD 20742. FED RESERVE BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC. RP Davis, SJ (reprint author), UNIV CHICAGO,CHICAGO,IL 60637, USA. NR 43 TC 105 Z9 108 U1 1 U2 9 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0921-898X J9 SMALL BUS ECON JI Small Bus. Econ. Group PD AUG PY 1996 VL 8 IS 4 BP 297 EP 315 DI 10.1007/BF00393278 PG 19 WC Business; Economics; Management SC Business & Economics GA VD484 UT WOS:A1996VD48400003 ER PT J AU Balke, NS Wynne, MA AF Balke, NS Wynne, MA TI Are deep recessions followed by strong recoveries? Results for the G-7 countries SO APPLIED ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID TIME AB The hypothesis is examined that the severity of a recession favourably affects the rate of growth of output during the period immediately after the recession. Our empirical analysis is based on the behaviour of industrial output in the G-7 countries during the period 1960 to 1985. The depth of a recession, defined as the cumulative output loss between the peak and trough dates, is shown to be negatively correlated with growth in the first 12 months of the subsequent expansion. C1 FED RESERVE BANK DALLAS,RES DEPT,DALLAS,TX 75201. RP Balke, NS (reprint author), SO METHODIST UNIV,DEPT ECON,DALLAS,TX 75275, USA. NR 24 TC 6 Z9 6 U1 0 U2 4 PU ROUTLEDGE PI LONDON PA 11 NEW FETTER LANE, LONDON, ENGLAND EC4P 4EE SN 0003-6846 J9 APPL ECON JI Appl. Econ. PD JUL PY 1996 VL 28 IS 7 BP 889 EP 897 PG 9 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA UY164 UT WOS:A1996UY16400016 ER PT J AU Jordan, JL Gavin, WT AF Jordan, JL Gavin, WT TI Armen Alchian's contribution to macroeconomics SO ECONOMIC INQUIRY LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT 69th Annual Western-Economic-Association-International Conference CY JUN 29-JUL 03, 1994 CL VANCOUVER, CANADA SP W Econ Assoc Int AB Armen Alchian's contributions to macroeconomics forged important paths that are still crucial to the understanding of monetary theory and monetary policy. We outline Alchian's examination of the fundament al role of money in society and his work (with Benjamin Klein) on the measurement of inflation. We also detail how, in research with Reuben Kessel, Alchian brought insight into the problems that followed the erratic inflation policies of the 1960s and 1970s, explained the effects of anticipated and unanticipated inflation on the real economy, and described the difficult of identifying the effects of monetary shocks in macroeconomic data. C1 FED RESERVE BANK ST LOUIS, ST LOUIS, MO USA. RP Jordan, JL (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND, CLEVELAND, OH 44114 USA. NR 35 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 1 PU WILEY-BLACKWELL PI MALDEN PA COMMERCE PLACE, 350 MAIN ST, MALDEN 02148, MA USA SN 0095-2583 J9 ECON INQ JI Econ. Inq. PD JUL PY 1996 VL 34 IS 3 BP 496 EP 505 PG 10 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA UW449 UT WOS:A1996UW44900008 ER PT J AU Kocherlakota, NR AF Kocherlakota, NR TI Reconsideration-proofness: A refinement for infinite horizon time inconsistency SO GAMES AND ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR LA English DT Article ID POLICY AB This paper examines a game in which an infinitely lived decision maker with inconsistent preferences makes choices over time. There are typically many subgame perfect equilibria to this game; I describe a refinement of subgame perfection that I term reconsideration-proofness. There is always a reconsideration-proof equilibrium and all reconsideration-proof equilibrium paths provide the same utility to the decision maker. I show that reconsideration-proofness is relevant for macroeconomic policy games by Proving an equivalence result between sustainable equilibria in policy games (as defined by Chari and Kehoe, 1990) and subgame perfect equilibria in intertemporally inconsistent choice problems. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C73, D91, E61. (C) 1996 A Academic Press, Inc. RP Kocherlakota, NR (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55480, USA. NR 15 TC 17 Z9 17 U1 0 U2 2 PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC JNL-COMP SUBSCRIPTIONS PI SAN DIEGO PA 525 B ST, STE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 SN 0899-8256 J9 GAME ECON BEHAV JI Games Econ. Behav. PD JUL PY 1996 VL 15 IS 1 BP 33 EP 54 DI 10.1006/game.1996.0058 PG 22 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA VC444 UT WOS:A1996VC44400003 ER PT J AU Mester, LJ AF Mester, LJ TI A study of bank efficiency taking into account risk-preferences SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article DE banks; efficiency; risk ID MODEL AB I use the stochastic cost frontier approach to investigate efficiency of banks operating in the Third Federal Reserve District, accounting for the quality and riskiness of bank output. In addition to the mean and mode of the conditional distribution of the one-sided error term, I calculate confidence intervals for the inefficiency measures based on the conditional distribution. The results indicate that Third District banks are operating at cost-efficient output levels and product mixes, but are not efficiently using their inputs. The second part of the article relates the inefficiency measures to several correlates. C1 UNIV PENN,WHARTON SCH,DEPT FINANCE,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19104. RP Mester, LJ (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK PHILADELPHIA,RES DEPT,10 INDEPENDENCE MALL,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19106, USA. NR 21 TC 161 Z9 169 U1 1 U2 16 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD JUL PY 1996 VL 20 IS 6 BP 1025 EP 1045 DI 10.1016/0378-4266(95)00047-X PG 21 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA UY492 UT WOS:A1996UY49200004 ER PT J AU West, KD Wilcox, DW AF West, KD Wilcox, DW TI Variables estimators of a dynamic linear model SO JOURNAL OF BUSINESS & ECONOMIC STATISTICS LA English DT Article DE asymptotic approximation; efficient estimation; optimal estimation; simulation; test statistics ID MOMENTS ESTIMATORS; GENERALIZED-METHOD; BEHAVIOR; MARKET; BOUNDS AB Using a dynamic linear equation that has a conditionally homoscedastic moving average disturbance, we compare two parameterizations of a commonly used instrumental variables estimator to one that is asymptotically optimal in a class of estimators that includes the conventional one. We find that, for some plausible data-generating processes, the optimal one is distinctly more efficient asymptotically. Simulations indicate that in samples of size typically available, asymptotic theory describes the distribution of the parameter estimates reasonably well but that test statistics sometimes are poorly sized. C1 FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,DIV MONETARY AFFAIRS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. RP West, KD (reprint author), UNIV WISCONSIN,DEPT ECON,MADISON,WI 53706, USA. RI West, Kenneth/A-5693-2008 NR 28 TC 20 Z9 21 U1 3 U2 5 PU AMER STATIST ASSN PI ALEXANDRIA PA 1429 DUKE ST, ALEXANDRIA, VA 22314 SN 0735-0015 J9 J BUS ECON STAT JI J. Bus. Econ. Stat. PD JUL PY 1996 VL 14 IS 3 BP 281 EP 293 DI 10.2307/1392443 PG 13 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods; Statistics & Probability SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences; Mathematics GA UV409 UT WOS:A1996UV40900003 ER PT J AU Altonji, JG Segal, LM AF Altonji, JG Segal, LM TI Small-sample bias in GMM estimation of covariance structures SO JOURNAL OF BUSINESS & ECONOMIC STATISTICS LA English DT Article DE generalized method of moments; IWOMD; Monte Carlo; optimal minimum distance; split sample ID MOMENTS ESTIMATORS; GENERALIZED-METHOD; PANEL DATA; MODELS AB We examine the small-sample properties of the generalized method of moments estimator applied to models of covariance structures, in which case it is commonly known as the optimal minimum distance (OMD) estimator. We find that OMD is almost always biased downward in absolute value. The bias arises because sampling errors in the second moments are correlated with sampling errors in the weighting matrix used by OMD. Furthermore, OMD is usually dominated by equally weighted minimum distance (EWMD). We also propose an alternative estimator that is unbiased and asymptotically equivalent to OMD. The Monte Carlo evidence indicates, however, that it is usually dominated by EWMD. C1 FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,RES DEPT,CHICAGO,IL 60604. RP Altonji, JG (reprint author), NORTHWESTERN UNIV,DEPT ECON,EVANSTON,IL 60208, USA. NR 24 TC 184 Z9 184 U1 2 U2 6 PU AMER STATIST ASSN PI ALEXANDRIA PA 1429 DUKE ST, ALEXANDRIA, VA 22314 SN 0735-0015 J9 J BUS ECON STAT JI J. Bus. Econ. Stat. PD JUL PY 1996 VL 14 IS 3 BP 353 EP 366 DI 10.2307/1392447 PG 14 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods; Statistics & Probability SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences; Mathematics GA UV409 UT WOS:A1996UV40900007 ER PT J AU Clark, TE AF Clark, TE TI Small-sample properties of estimators of nonlinear models of covariance structure SO JOURNAL OF BUSINESS & ECONOMIC STATISTICS LA English DT Article DE generalized method of moments; maximum likelihood; Monte Carlo ID GENERALIZED-METHOD AB This study examines the small-sample properties of generalized method of moments (GMM) and maximum likelihood estimators of nonlinear models of covariance structure. It considers the properties of estimates for a simple factor model, the Hall and Mishkin model of consumption and income, and a simple structural vector autoregression-type error model. This analysis establishes three basic results. First, optimally weighted GMM estimation yields some biased parameter estimates. Second, GMM estimation yields a model-specification test with size substantially greater than the asymptotic size. Third, these problems are mitigated when the number of overidentifying restrictions in a model is reduced. RP Clark, TE (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK KANSAS CITY, DIV RES, KANSAS CITY, MO 64198 USA. NR 18 TC 21 Z9 21 U1 1 U2 3 PU AMER STATISTICAL ASSOC PI ALEXANDRIA PA 732 N WASHINGTON ST, ALEXANDRIA, VA 22314-1943 USA SN 0735-0015 J9 J BUS ECON STAT JI J. Bus. Econ. Stat. PD JUL PY 1996 VL 14 IS 3 BP 367 EP 373 DI 10.2307/1392448 PG 7 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods; Statistics & Probability SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences; Mathematics GA UV409 UT WOS:A1996UV40900008 ER PT J AU Passmore, W Sparks, R AF Passmore, W Sparks, R TI Putting the squeeze on a market for lemons: Government-sponsored mortgage securitization. SO JOURNAL OF FINANCE LA English DT Meeting Abstract C1 FED RESERVE BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 4 PU AMER FINANCE ASSN PI NEW YORK PA 44 WEST FOURTH ST, STE 9-190, NEW YORK, NY 10012 SN 0022-1082 J9 J FINANC JI J. Financ. PD JUL PY 1996 VL 51 IS 3 BP 1065 EP 1066 PG 2 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA UU145 UT WOS:A1996UU14500073 ER PT J AU Park, S AF Park, S TI Banking and deposit insurance as a risk transfer mechanism SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION LA English DT Article ID FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION; INFORMATION; ALLOCATION; LIQUIDITY; POLICY; MARKET; RUNS AB This paper models an economy in which risk-averse savers and risk-neutral entrepreneurs make investment decisions. Aggregate investment in high-yielding risky projects is maximized when risk-neutral agents bear all nondiversifiable risks, A role of banks is to assume nondiversifiable risks by pledging their capital in addition to diversifying risks. Banks, however, do not completely eliminate risks when monitoring by depositors is imperfect. Government deposit insurance that uses tax revenue to repay depositors transfers remaining risks to entrepreneurs, Deposit insurance can improve welfare because imperfect monitoring by the government largely results in income transfer among risk-neutral agents rather than lower production, Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: G21, G28. (C) 1996 Academic Press, Inc. RP Park, S (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,33 LIBERTY ST,NEW YORK,NY 10045, USA. NR 29 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 5 U2 7 PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC JNL-COMP SUBSCRIPTIONS PI SAN DIEGO PA 525 B ST, STE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 SN 1042-9573 J9 J FINANC INTERMED JI J. Financ. Intermed. PD JUL PY 1996 VL 5 IS 3 BP 284 EP 304 DI 10.1006/jfin.1996.0016 PG 21 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA VE528 UT WOS:A1996VE52800003 ER PT J AU Nakamura, LI Lang, WW AF Nakamura, LI Lang, WW TI Introduction: New directions in information and screening in real estate finance SO JOURNAL OF REAL ESTATE FINANCE AND ECONOMICS LA English DT Editorial Material ID MODEL; CREDIT AB The five papers in this issue were originally presented as works-in-progress in March 1994 at the Conference on Information and Screening in Real Estate Finance, co-sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and this Journal. Four of the papers are empirical papers that take steps toward measuring the importance of individual information problems in mortgage markets. They collectively move us forward in one of the central projects of economics, calibration of the quantitative impact of information problems in financial markets. A fifth paper, by Passmore and Sparks, tackles the difficult problem of assessing the impact of the information problems of government-sponsored secondary market makers on the information gathering of mortgage originators. The empirical importance of information is crucial in understanding the efficiency of markets because in the presence of imperfect information, temporary shocks can become permanent, and market outcomes may be suboptimal. These two possibilities are of central importance in the regulation of racial discrimination and in the analysis of macro- and regional economies. C1 OFF COMPTROLLER CURRENCY,WASHINGTON,DC 20219. RP Nakamura, LI (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK PHILADELPHIA,10 INDEPENDENCE MALL,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19106, USA. NR 14 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 1 U2 2 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0895-5638 J9 J REAL ESTATE FINANC JI J. Real Estate Financ. Econ. PD JUL PY 1996 VL 13 IS 1 BP 5 EP 10 PG 6 WC Business, Finance; Economics; Urban Studies SC Business & Economics; Urban Studies GA VB116 UT WOS:A1996VB11600001 ER PT J AU Avery, RB Beeson, PE Sniderman, MS AF Avery, RB Beeson, PE Sniderman, MS TI Posted rates and mortgage lending activity SO JOURNAL OF REAL ESTATE FINANCE AND ECONOMICS LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Information and Screening in Real Estate Finance CY MAR 03-04, 1994 CL PHILADELPHIA, PA SP J Real Estate Finance & Econ, Fed Reserve Bank Philadelphia DE mortgage interest rates; mortgage lending; Home Mortgage Disclosure Act; pricing strategy AB In many metropolitan areas (MSAs) newspapers post mortgage terms for lenders in a manner designed to permit an easy comparison of discount points and note rates. Using these advertised rates for 73 lenders in three MSAs we examine 1) how applicants respond to short-run changes in relative rates, and 2) the relationship between the services provided and quality of applications received by lenders and their long-term market positions. We find that applicant flows increase when lenders lower their rates. We also find that persistent cross-lender differences in rates are associated with differences in product quality reflected in processing times, loan sales, and FHA/VA lending; and that high-risk borrowers tend to apply to lenders posting above-average rates. C1 UNIV PITTSBURGH,DEPT ECON,PITTSBURGH,PA 15260. FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,RES DEPT,CLEVELAND,OH 44101. RP Avery, RB (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 11 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 1 U2 3 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0895-5638 J9 J REAL ESTATE FINANC JI J. Real Estate Financ. Econ. PD JUL PY 1996 VL 13 IS 1 BP 11 EP 26 PG 16 WC Business, Finance; Economics; Urban Studies SC Business & Economics; Urban Studies GA VB116 UT WOS:A1996VB11600002 ER PT J AU Passmore, W Sparks, R AF Passmore, W Sparks, R TI Putting the squeeze on a market for lemons: Government-sponsored mortgage securitization SO JOURNAL OF REAL ESTATE FINANCE AND ECONOMICS LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Information and Screening in Real Estate Finance CY MAR 03-04, 1994 CL PHILADELPHIA, PA SP J Real Estate Finance & Econ, Fed Reserve Bank Philadelphia DE mortgage rates; government-sponsored enterprise; Fannie Mae; Freddie Mac; adverse selection ID CREDIT AB Lenders either sell or obtain insurance for many of the mortgages they originate to reduce credit risk and enhance liquidity. An overwhelming majority of the mortgages sold are purchased by government-sponsored enterprises. The prevailing view is that government-sponsorship of mortgage securitization causes mortgage rates to be lower than they would otherwise be. Using a model that incorporates asymmetric information and adverse selection, we provide an example in which government-sponsored mortgage securitization raises the mortgage rate. C1 MILLS COLL, DEPT ECON, OAKLAND, CA 94613 USA. RP Passmore, W (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST, BOARD GOVERNORS, MAIL STOP 89, WASHINGTON, DC 20551 USA. NR 22 TC 8 Z9 8 U1 0 U2 4 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0895-5638 J9 J REAL ESTATE FINANC JI J. Real Estate Financ. Econ. PD JUL PY 1996 VL 13 IS 1 BP 27 EP 43 PG 17 WC Business, Finance; Economics; Urban Studies SC Business & Economics; Urban Studies GA VB116 UT WOS:A1996VB11600003 ER PT J AU Hunter, WC Walker, MB AF Hunter, WC Walker, MB TI The cultural affinity hypothesis and mortgage lending decisions SO JOURNAL OF REAL ESTATE FINANCE AND ECONOMICS LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Information and Screening in Real Estate Finance CY MAR 03-04, 1994 CL PHILADELPHIA, PA SP J Real Estate Finance & Econ, Fed Reserve Bank Philadelphia ID RACE; RISK AB This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the cultural affinity hypothesis put forth by Calomiris, et al. (1994) in the mortgage lending market. This hypothesis implies that white loan officers, because of a lack of familiarity with minority applicants, will rely more heavily on characteristics that can be observed at low cost (e.g., objective loan application measures) in evaluating the creditworthiness of minority applicants relative to white applicants. Using a cleansed sample of 1,991 loan applications drawn from data collected by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, the results of the analysis were consistent with the cultural affinity hypothesis. In particular, we found that marginal black and Hispanic applicants appeared to be held to higher quantitative standards on such objective factors as credit history and debt obligation ratios than were similarly situated marginal white applicants. C1 GEORGIA STATE UNIV,DEPT ECON,CTR POLICY RES,ATLANTA,GA 30303. RP Hunter, WC (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,230 S LASALLE ST,CHICAGO,IL 60604, USA. NR 14 TC 42 Z9 42 U1 3 U2 8 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0895-5638 J9 J REAL ESTATE FINANC JI J. Real Estate Financ. Econ. PD JUL PY 1996 VL 13 IS 1 BP 57 EP 70 PG 14 WC Business, Finance; Economics; Urban Studies SC Business & Economics; Urban Studies GA VB116 UT WOS:A1996VB11600005 ER PT J AU Calem, PS AF Calem, PS TI Mortgage credit availability in low- and moderate-income minority neighborhoods: Are information externalities critical? SO JOURNAL OF REAL ESTATE FINANCE AND ECONOMICS LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Information and Screening in Real Estate Finance CY MAR 03-04, 1994 CL PHILADELPHIA, PA SP J Real Estate Finance & Econ, Fed Reserve Bank Philadelphia AB This study conducts a cross-sectional analysis of U.S. metropolitan counties to inquire into the factors affecting white and minority mortgage loan approval rates during 1990-1991. In particular, evidence is sought on whether minority loan applicants are denied credit more frequently than white applicants because of information externalities. Within each county, all predominantly minority, low- or moderate-income census tracts are groupted together, and then regression equations are estimated across counties and tract groupings. Separate approval rate equations are estimated for conventional and federally insured (FHA or VA) home purchase loans. In addition, a regression equation for the percentage of applicants applying for federally insured loans is estimated. Both approval rate regressions indicate that across white tract groupings, the depth of the housing market (the number of sales of owner-occupied units during 1989) has a positive and statistically significant effect on the loan approval rate, consistent with the view that information externalities affect mortgage loan evaluations. However, this relationship appears not to hold across minority tract groupings. RP Calem, PS (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,DIV RES & STAT,FINANCIAL STRUCT SECT,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 14 TC 17 Z9 17 U1 1 U2 5 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0895-5638 J9 J REAL ESTATE FINANC JI J. Real Estate Financ. Econ. PD JUL PY 1996 VL 13 IS 1 BP 71 EP 89 PG 19 WC Business, Finance; Economics; Urban Studies SC Business & Economics; Urban Studies GA VB116 UT WOS:A1996VB11600006 ER PT J AU Kodrzycki, YK AF Kodrzycki, YK TI Laid-off workers in a time of structural change SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID NEW-ENGLAND; COSTS AB Labor markets have undergone considerable change in recent years. Manufacturing positions are shrinking, especially in blue-collar occupations, and real wages for workers with little education are declining. A rising share of unemployment is accounted for by workers who have been permanently laid off. This article uses data on workers displaced from Massachusetts companies in the early 1990s who sought government-provided reemployment assistance to examine, first, their duration of unemployment and then, for those who found work, their new wages and other job attributes. The evidence shows that workers from declining industries suffer especially sharp wage cuts, and former defense workers have the most severe adjustment costs of all. The research also shows that early sign-up for adjustment services tends to reduce the duration of joblessness. However, laid-off workers who participate in education and training programs do not necessarily find better jobs than those who avail themselves only of more basic forms of assistance. RP Kodrzycki, YK (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02210, USA. NR 14 TC 7 Z9 7 U1 1 U2 3 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD JUL-AUG PY 1996 BP 3 EP & PG 25 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA VD860 UT WOS:A1996VD86000001 ER PT J AU Kopcke, RW AF Kopcke, RW TI Risk and the capital of insurance companies SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Rethinking Insurance Regulation CY JAN 12, 1996 CL WASHINGTON, DC SP Competit Enterprise Inst AB Insurance companies, Like other financial institutions, have been evolving from specialized businesses to enterprises offering a variety of financial services. Rising interest rates impelled this evolution during much of the past three decades as most insurers tried to remain competitive. However, as insurers' profit margins subsided and they attracted new business, their assets generally grew more rapidly than their capital. To maintain the safety and soundness of insurance companies, regulators increasingly are adopting risk-based capital requirements instead of rules that limit insurers' investments and contracts, but these standards measure neither the protection for policyholders embedded in insurers' portfolios nor the rate at which this protection might change with economic conditions. The author suggests that risk managers and regulators might use the models behind value-at-risk calculations to isolate those economic conditions that threaten the solvency of insurance companies. A conservative policy might require that insurers adopt financial strategies that limit their maximum losses for all ''feasible'' conditions, a kind of minimax strategy. This version of risk-based capital requirements might reveal best the risks that insurance companies are bearing and, when necessary, might tie their need for capital more directly to these risks, rather than to their commitments to individual assets and liabilities. RP Kopcke, RW (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02210, USA. NR 14 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 2 U2 3 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD JUL-AUG PY 1996 BP 27 EP & PG 17 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA VD860 UT WOS:A1996VD86000002 ER PT J AU Stavins, J AF Stavins, J TI Can demand elasticities explain sticky credit card rates? SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article AB Sticky interest rates on credit card plans have long been a mystery. One possible explanation is that banks maintain high rates because consumers' demand for credit card loans is inelastic. This study tests and rejects that hypothesis. Demand for credit card loans is found to be elastic with respect to interest rates charged, and the amount of delinquent loans is found to increase significantly more than total credit card loans when interest rates drop. The results show that banks face an adverse selection problem: Lowering the annual percentage rate of interest (APR) would attract risky customers and increase delinquent loans at a significantly higher rate than loans in general. This induces banks to maintain high interest rates. The adverse selection hypothesis is further supported by the finding that banks' income from credit card fees and interest increases with APR. Consumers' demand is also found to be responsive to some of the enhancements added to the terms of credit card plans. Banks may find it optimal to charge high interest rates, while adding enhancements in order to attract customers and raise their income at a low cost. RP Stavins, J (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02210, USA. NR 7 TC 9 Z9 9 U1 0 U2 3 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD JUL-AUG PY 1996 BP 43 EP & PG 13 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA VD860 UT WOS:A1996VD86000003 ER PT J AU Bradbury, KL AF Bradbury, KL TI The growing inequality of family incomes: Changing families and changing wages SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID GROWTH; TRENDS AB It is widely known that the incomes of U.S. families became more unequal during the 1980s. The reasons for this rise, however, are not at all clear. Numerous factors have been implicated including slow growth, rising demand for highly educated workers, and shifts in family structure and family members' work patterns. This article describes the 1973-94 increase in inequality of family incomes and related shifts in wage inequality, work trends, and family patterns. The author also examines patterns of inequality among the nine Census regions in the United States and differences in their economic and demographic characteristics. She then investigates the relationship between family income inequality and these factors. In brief, changes in both economic factors and family structure have been associated with rising family income inequality over the last two decades, with the increase in single parenthood and the growing wage premium to college education playing key roles. Among regions, part-time work, low labor force participation, and minority population are associated with greater inequality. RP Bradbury, KL (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON, BOSTON, MA 02210 USA. NR 30 TC 11 Z9 11 U1 1 U2 6 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 USA SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD JUL-AUG PY 1996 BP 55 EP + PG 0 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA VD860 UT WOS:A1996VD86000004 ER PT J AU RiosRull, JV AF RiosRull, JV TI Life-cycle economies and aggregate fluctuations SO REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES LA English DT Article ID OVERLAPPING GENERATIONS MODELS; COMPETITIVE-EQUILIBRIUM; MARKET; EFFICIENCY AB Do the implications for business cycle issues change when we switch from studying infinitely-lived, representative-agent models to more sophisticated demographic structures with finitely lived agents? This article addresses that question by using a large, overlapping-generations model that is calibrated to U.S. demographic properties, microeconomic evidence, and National Income and Product Accounts. The finding is that the answers obtained are basically the same for the two kinds of models. The article also explores the relative volatility of hours across age groups, an issue that cannot be addressed by using the infinitely-lived, representative-agent abstraction. C1 UNIV PENN,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19104. RP RiosRull, JV (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55401, USA. NR 26 TC 80 Z9 81 U1 1 U2 8 PU REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES LTD PI OXFORD PA C/O BASIL BLACKWELL LTD 108 COWLEY RD, OXFORD, OXON, ENGLAND OX4 1JF SN 0034-6527 J9 REV ECON STUD JI Rev. Econ. Stud. PD JUL PY 1996 VL 63 IS 3 BP 465 EP 489 DI 10.2307/2297891 PG 25 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA UW227 UT WOS:A1996UW22700005 ER PT J AU Shaffer, S AF Shaffer, S TI Structural screens in stochastic markets SO SOUTHERN ECONOMIC JOURNAL LA English DT Article RP Shaffer, S (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK PHILADELPHIA,PHILADELPHIA,PA, USA. NR 15 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 1 PU UNIV NORTH CAROLINA PI CHAPEL HILL PA SOUTHERN ECONOMIC JOURNAL, CHAPEL HILL, NC 27514 SN 0038-4038 J9 SOUTHERN ECON J JI South. Econ. J. PD JUL PY 1996 VL 63 IS 1 BP 140 EP 148 DI 10.2307/1061309 PG 9 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA UV628 UT WOS:A1996UV62800011 ER PT J AU Tootell, GMB AF Tootell, GMB TI Appointment procedures and FOMC voting behavior SO SOUTHERN ECONOMIC JOURNAL LA English DT Article RP Tootell, GMB (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02210, USA. NR 9 TC 8 Z9 8 U1 0 U2 2 PU UNIV NORTH CAROLINA PI CHAPEL HILL PA SOUTHERN ECONOMIC JOURNAL, CHAPEL HILL, NC 27514 SN 0038-4038 J9 SOUTHERN ECON J JI South. Econ. J. PD JUL PY 1996 VL 63 IS 1 BP 191 EP 204 DI 10.2307/1061313 PG 14 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA UV628 UT WOS:A1996UV62800015 ER PT J AU McCandless, GT AF McCandless, GT TI Money, expectations, and the US Civil War SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article C1 FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,RES DEPT,MINNEAPOLIS,MN. RP McCandless, GT (reprint author), UNIV SAN ANDRES,DEPT ECON,VITO DUMAS 284,VICTORIA,BUENOS AIRES,ARGENTINA. NR 15 TC 15 Z9 15 U1 0 U2 5 PU AMER ECON ASSN PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY SUITE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD JUN PY 1996 VL 86 IS 3 BP 661 EP 671 PG 11 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA UP302 UT WOS:A1996UP30200020 ER PT J AU Duffee, GR AF Duffee, GR TI On measuring credit risks of derivative instruments SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article DE derivatives; swaps; credit risk; risk management ID TERM STRUCTURE; CORPORATE LIABILITIES; INTEREST-RATES; OPTIONS AB This paper critically reviews current practices for measuring credit risks of derivative instruments. It argues that there are two major problems with the standard measurement approach. First, it uses models of the stochastic behavior of financial variables while ignoring both their inherent oversimplification and the uncertainty in their parameters. Second, it ignores the correlations among exposures on derivative instruments and the probabilities of counterparty default. This paper demonstrates that these practices can produce large errors in the estimation of distributions of both future credit exposures and future credit losses. RP Duffee, GR (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD,MAIL STOP 91,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 46 TC 7 Z9 7 U1 0 U2 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD JUN PY 1996 VL 20 IS 5 BP 805 EP 833 DI 10.1016/0378-4266(95)00030-5 PG 29 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA UQ872 UT WOS:A1996UQ87200002 ER PT J AU Kaminsky, GL Pereira, A AF Kaminsky, GL Pereira, A TI The debt crisis: Lessons of the 1980s for the 1990s SO JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID GROWTH; OVERHANG AB One of the salient characteristics of the 1980s is the growth collapse of the Latin American debtor countries. The debt-overhang literature claims that the debt crisis is the main reason for the growth collapse. However, previous empirical work has failed to support this hypothesis. We re-examined this hypothesis further using simulation and econometric methods. We found that once we account for the effects of social inequality on government policy and consumption, the burden of servicing the debt becomes an important factor in explaining the collapse in investment and output growth in Latin America. We draw some conclusions for the 1990s. C1 COLL WILLIAM & MARY,DEPT ECON,WILLIAMSBURG,VA 23187. RP Kaminsky, GL (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. RI nipe, cef/A-4218-2010; OI Pereira, Alfredo Marvao/0000-0003-1381-0937 NR 28 TC 8 Z9 10 U1 0 U2 6 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3878 J9 J DEV ECON JI J. Dev. Econ. PD JUN PY 1996 VL 50 IS 1 BP 1 EP 24 DI 10.1016/0304-3878(96)00002-8 PG 24 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA VE276 UT WOS:A1996VE27600001 ER PT J AU Rolnick, AJ Velde, FR Weber, WE AF Rolnick, AJ Velde, FR Weber, WE TI The debasement puzzle: An essay on medieval monetary history SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC HISTORY LA English DT Meeting Abstract C1 FED RESERVE BANK,MINNEAPOLIS,MN. JOHNS HOPKINS UNIV,BALTIMORE,MD 21218. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS PI NEW YORK PA 40 WEST 20TH STREET, NEW YORK, NY 10011-4211 SN 0022-0507 J9 J ECON HIST JI J. Econ. Hist. PD JUN PY 1996 VL 56 IS 2 BP 493 EP 494 PG 2 WC Economics; History; History Of Social Sciences SC Business & Economics; History; Social Sciences - Other Topics GA UR620 UT WOS:A1996UR62000036 ER PT J AU Lach, S Rob, R AF Lach, S Rob, R TI R&D, investment, and industry dynamics SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS & MANAGEMENT STRATEGY LA English DT Article ID INNOVATION; EVOLUTION AB We present a model of industry evolution where the dynamics are driven by a process of endogenous innovations followed by subsequent embodiments in physical capital. Traditionally, the only distinction between R&D and physical investment was one of labeling: the first process accumulates an intangible stock, knowledge, while the second accumulates physical capital. Both stocks affect output in a symmetric fashion. We argue that the story is not that simple, and that there is more to it than differences in the object of accumulation. Our model stresses the causal relationship between past R&D expenditures and current investments in machinery and equipment. This causality pattern, which is supported by the data, also explains the observed higher volatility of physical investment relative to that of R&D expenditures. C1 FED RESERVE BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. NBER,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. UNIV PENN,DEPT ECON,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19104. INSEAD,F-77305 FONTAINEBLEAU,FRANCE. RP Lach, S (reprint author), HEBREW UNIV JERUSALEM,DEPT ECON,IL-91905 JERUSALEM,ISRAEL. NR 23 TC 21 Z9 21 U1 0 U2 4 PU MIT PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA 55 HAYWARD ST JOURNALS DEPT, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 SN 1058-6407 J9 J ECON MANAGE STRAT JI J. Econ. Manage. Strategy PD SUM PY 1996 VL 5 IS 2 BP 217 EP 249 DI 10.1111/j.1430-9134.1996.00217.x PG 33 WC Economics; Management SC Business & Economics GA UQ868 UT WOS:A1996UQ86800004 ER PT J AU Duffee, GR AF Duffee, GR TI Idiosyncratic variation of treasury bill yields SO JOURNAL OF FINANCE LA English DT Article ID TERM STRUCTURE; INTEREST-RATES; MARKET; MODEL; MONEY AB I document a dramatic increase in the importance of two types of variation in Treasury bill yields beginning in the early 1980s. The first is idiosyncratic variation in individual short-maturity (less than three months) bill yields, The second is a common component in Treasury bill yields that is not shared by yields on other instruments, such as short-maturity privately-issued instruments or longer-maturity Treasury notes and bonds. Some evidence suggests the first type reflects increased market segmentation. These results have important implications for the calibration and testing of no-arbitrage term structure models and interpreting tests of the expectations hypothesis. RP Duffee, GR (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 35 TC 60 Z9 61 U1 1 U2 11 PU AMER FINANCE ASSN PI NEW YORK PA 44 WEST FOURTH ST, STE 9-190, NEW YORK, NY 10012 SN 0022-1082 J9 J FINANC JI J. Financ. PD JUN PY 1996 VL 51 IS 2 BP 527 EP 551 DI 10.2307/2329370 PG 25 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA UP286 UT WOS:A1996UP28600005 ER PT J AU Ghosal, V Loungani, P AF Ghosal, V Loungani, P TI Product market competition and the impact of price uncertainty on investment: Some evidence from US manufacturing industries SO JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article AB We estimate the impact of price uncertainty on investment using a panel of US manufacturing industries. Pooling the data for all industries, uncertainty has no impact on current investment. However, for industries that have low levels of seller concentration and thus are likely to be highly competitive, the estimated impact is negative and statistically significant, whilst for industries with high levels of seller concentration, the impact is always small and not significantly different from zero. The finding of a negative relationship between investment and price uncertainty in competitive industries is broadly consistent with models that incorporate irreversibility of capital investment. C1 FED RESERVE BOARD,DIV INT FRANCE,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. RP Ghosal, V (reprint author), MIAMI UNIV,DEPT ECON,208 LAWS HALL,OXFORD,OH 45056, USA. NR 23 TC 50 Z9 53 U1 0 U2 4 PU BLACKWELL PUBL LTD PI OXFORD PA 108 COWLEY RD, OXFORD, OXON, ENGLAND OX4 1JF SN 0022-1821 J9 J IND ECON JI J. Indust. Econ. PD JUN PY 1996 VL 44 IS 2 BP 217 EP 228 DI 10.2307/2950647 PG 12 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA UP436 UT WOS:A1996UP43600007 ER PT J AU Aiyagari, SR Wallace, N Wright, R AF Aiyagari, SR Wallace, N Wright, R TI Coexistence of money and interest-bearing securities SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT 25th Anniversary Conference of Robert E Lucas, Jr Paper - Expectations and the Neutrality of Money CY MAY, 1995 CL FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS, MINNEAPOLIS, MN HO FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS DE money; interest rates; monetary policy ID SEARCH AB A random matching model with money is used to study the nominal yield on small denomination, bearer, safe, discount securities issued by the government. There is always one steady state with matured securities circulating at par and, for some parameters, another with them circulating at a discount. In the former, a necessary and sufficient condition for a positive nominal yield on not-yet-matured securities is exogenous discriminatory treatment of them by the government. In the latter, the post-maturity discount on securities induces a deeper pre-maturity discount even without such discriminatory treatment. C1 UNIV MIAMI,DEPT ECON,CORAL GABLES,FL 33124. UNIV PENN,DEPT ECON,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19104. RP Aiyagari, SR (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,RES DEPT,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55480, USA. NR 18 TC 45 Z9 46 U1 0 U2 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD JUN PY 1996 VL 37 IS 3 BP 397 EP 419 PG 23 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA VH060 UT WOS:A1996VH06000002 ER PT J AU Kocherlakota, NR AF Kocherlakota, NR TI Consumption, commitment, and cycles SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT 25th Anniversary Conference of Robert E Lucas, Jr Paper - Expectations and the Neutrality of Money CY MAY, 1995 CL FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS, MINNEAPOLIS, MN HO FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS DE business cycles; consumption ID INFORMATION; INSURANCE AB This paper examines the properties of efficient allocations of risk in an economic environment in which the outside enforcement of risk-sharing arrangements is infinitely costly. Tn these allocations, unanticipated relative productivity movements have effects on both the current and future distribution of consumption across individuals. If preferences over consumption and leisure are nonhomothetic, these changes in the allocation of consumption will generate persistent cycles in aggregate output that do not occur in efficient allocations when enforcement is costless. RP Kocherlakota, NR (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,RES DEPT,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55480, USA. NR 13 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 1 U2 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD JUN PY 1996 VL 37 IS 3 BP 461 EP 474 DI 10.1016/0304-3932(96)01258-5 PG 14 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA VH060 UT WOS:A1996VH06000005 ER PT J AU Krusell, P Quadrini, V RiosRull, JV AF Krusell, P Quadrini, V RiosRull, JV TI Are consumption taxes really better than income taxes? SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT 25th Anniversary Conference of Robert E Lucas, Jr Paper - Expectations and the Neutrality of Money CY MAY, 1995 CL FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS, MINNEAPOLIS, MN HO FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS DE political equilibrium; consumption taxes; income taxes ID OPTIMAL FISCAL-POLICY; ENDOGENOUS GROWTH; OPTIMAL TAXATION; ECONOMIC-GROWTH; MODEL; GOVERNMENT; EQUILIBRIUM; INVESTMENT; INEQUALITY AB We use political-equilibrium theory and the neoclassical growth model to compare consumption and income tax systems, If government outlays are used for redistribution through transfers, then steady-state equilibria in societies that use income taxes are not necessarily worse in welfare terms, and may even be better. Income taxes are attractive precisely because they are more distortionary, since this implies low equilibrium transfer levels, We also find that switching lax systems typically does not benefit the median voter; moreover, a change from income to consumption taxes may make everybody worse off. C1 FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,RES DEPT,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55480. UNIV ROCHESTER,ROCHESTER,NY 14627. INST INT ECON STUDIES,STOCKHOLM,SWEDEN. CTR ECON POLICY RES,LONDON SW1Y 6LA,ENGLAND. UNIV PENN,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19104. UNIV POMPEU FABRA,BARCELONA,SPAIN. NR 42 TC 38 Z9 38 U1 0 U2 9 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD JUN PY 1996 VL 37 IS 3 BP 475 EP 503 DI 10.1016/0304-3932(96)01262-7 PG 29 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA VH060 UT WOS:A1996VH06000006 ER PT J AU Cochrane, JH AF Cochrane, JH TI A cross-sectional test of an investment-based asset pricing model SO JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY LA English DT Article ID RETURNS; EQUILIBRIUM; MARKET; RISK AB I examine a factor pricing model for stock returns, The factors are returns on physical investment, infer red from investment data via a production function. I examine the model's ability to explain variation in expected returns across assets and over time. The model is not rejected. It performs about as well as the CAPM and the Chen, Roll, and Ross factor model, and it performs substantially better than a simple consumption-based model. I also provide an easy technique for estimating and testing dynamic, conditional asset pricing models-one simply includes factors and returns scaled by instruments in an unconditional estimate-and for comparing such models. C1 NATL BUR ECON RES, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02138 USA. RP UNIV CHICAGO, FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO, CHICAGO, IL 60637 USA. NR 32 TC 244 Z9 250 U1 4 U2 24 PU UNIV CHICAGO PRESS PI CHICAGO PA 1427 E 60TH ST, CHICAGO, IL 60637-2954 USA SN 0022-3808 EI 1537-534X J9 J POLIT ECON JI J. Polit. Econ. PD JUN PY 1996 VL 104 IS 3 BP 572 EP 621 DI 10.1086/262034 PG 50 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA UL303 UT WOS:A1996UL30300005 ER PT J AU Chang, AE AF Chang, AE TI Tax policy, lump-sum pension distributions, and household saving SO NATIONAL TAX JOURNAL LA English DT Article AB The Tax Reform Act of 1986 (TRA) imposed a ten percent penalty on lump-sum pension distributions that are not ''rolled over'' into tax-deferred instruments by younger recipients (under 55). This paper presents the first estimates of the tax sensitivity of rollovers, based on variations in the tax price introduced by the TRA. For higher-income recipients, a one percent increase in the tax price raises the probability of rollover by 0.4 percentage points; but among lower-income recipients, it rises by only 0.2 percentage points. Most recipients have low incomes and may be liquidity constrained, which explains the ineffectiveness of the penalty in raising rollovers. RP Chang, AE (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,NEW YORK,NY 10045, USA. NR 28 TC 18 Z9 18 U1 0 U2 3 PU NATL TAX ASSN PI COLUMBUS PA 5310 EAST MAIN ST, COLUMBUS, OH 43213 SN 0028-0283 J9 NATL TAX J JI Natl. Tax J. PD JUN PY 1996 VL 49 IS 2 BP 235 EP 252 PG 18 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA UR249 UT WOS:A1996UR24900006 ER PT J AU Cole, RA Eisenbeis, RA AF Cole, RA Eisenbeis, RA TI The role of principal-agent conflicts in the 1980s thrift crisis SO REAL ESTATE ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID DEPOSIT-INSURANCE; OWNERSHIP STRUCTURE; SAVINGS; COSTS AB Agency theory suggests that many of the costs incurred by the taxpayer during the 1980s thrift crisis were the result of conflicts between principals and their agents. This study models the costs associated with three distinct types of agency conflicts involved in closing an insolvent thrift-conflicts between creditors and owners, between owners and managers, and between taxpayers and government officials. Using a model that controls for sample-selection bias, the study presents strong evidence that thrift owners effected wealth transfers from creditors by undertaking high-risk investments, and that government officials pursued policies that increased losses to the thrift deposit insurance fund which ultimately were funded by the taxpayer. The results do not show that managers effected wealth transfers from owners through expense-preference behavior, but rather that inefficient management increased the losses of the deposit insurance fund. C1 UNIV N CAROLINA,CHAPEL HILL,NC 27599. RP Cole, RA (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. RI Cole, Rebel/C-4399-2008 OI Cole, Rebel/0000-0001-9830-662X NR 36 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 3 PU AMER REAL ESTATE URBAN ECONOMICS ASSOC PI BLOOMINGTON PA INDIANA UNIV, SCHOOL BUSINESS, RM 428, 10TH FEE LANE, BLOOMINGTON, IN 47405 SN 1080-8620 J9 REAL ESTATE ECON JI Real Estate Econ. PD SUM PY 1996 VL 24 IS 2 BP 195 EP 218 DI 10.1111/1540-6229.00687 PG 24 WC Business, Finance; Economics; Urban Studies SC Business & Economics; Urban Studies GA UQ885 UT WOS:A1996UQ88500004 ER PT J AU Case, KE Mayer, CJ AF Case, KE Mayer, CJ TI Housing price dynamics within a metropolitan area SO REGIONAL SCIENCE AND URBAN ECONOMICS LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Public Policy and the Housing Market CY OCT 20-22, 1994 CL KIAWAH ISL, SC DE housing prices; metropolitan area; local ID ESTATE AB This paper analyzes the pattern of house price appreciation in the Boston area from 1982 to 1994. The empirical results are consistent with the predictions of a standard urban model in which towns have a fixed set of amenities. The evidence suggests that changes in the cross-sectional pattern of house prices are related to differences in manufacturing employment, demographics, new construction, proximity to the downtown, and to aggregate school enrollments. These findings support the view that town amenities are not easily replicated or quickly adaptable to shifts in demand, even within a metropolitan area. C1 WELLESLEY COLL,DEPT ECON,WELLESLEY,MA 02181. FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,RES DEPT,BOSTON,MA 02106. NR 12 TC 50 Z9 50 U1 2 U2 6 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0166-0462 J9 REG SCI URBAN ECON JI Reg. Sci. Urban Econ. PD JUN PY 1996 VL 26 IS 3-4 BP 387 EP 407 DI 10.1016/0166-0462(95)02121-3 PG 21 WC Economics; Environmental Studies; Urban Studies SC Business & Economics; Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Urban Studies GA UU695 UT WOS:A1996UU69500008 ER PT J AU Geweke, J Zhou, GF AF Geweke, J Zhou, GF TI Measuring the pricing error of the arbitrage pricing theory SO REVIEW OF FINANCIAL STUDIES LA English DT Article ID BAYESIAN-INFERENCE; EMPIRICAL TESTS; EQUILIBRIUM-APT; FINITE ECONOMY; MONTE-CARLO; MODELS; RISK; DISTRIBUTIONS; INTEGRATION; EFFICIENCY AB This article Provides an exact Bayesian framework for analyzing the arbitrage Pricing theory (APT). Based on the Gibbs sampler, we show how to obtain the exact posterior distributions for functions of interest in the factor model In particular, we propose a measure of the APT pricing deviations and obtain its exact posterior distribution. Using monthly portfolio returns grouped by industry and market capitalization we find that there is little improvement in reducing the pricing errors by including more factors beyond the first one. C1 UNIV MINNESOTA,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55455. FED RESERVE BANK,MINNEAPOLIS,MN. RP Geweke, J (reprint author), WASHINGTON UNIV,JOHN M OLIN SCH BUSINESS,CAMPUS BOX 1133,ST LOUIS,MO 63130, USA. NR 48 TC 94 Z9 94 U1 1 U2 10 PU OXFORD UNIV PRESS INC PI CARY PA JOURNALS DEPT, 2001 EVANS RD, CARY, NC 27513 SN 0893-9454 J9 REV FINANC STUD JI Rev. Financ. Stud. PD SUM PY 1996 VL 9 IS 2 BP 557 EP 587 DI 10.1093/rfs/9.2.557 PG 31 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA UW814 UT WOS:A1996UW81400006 ER PT J AU Calvo, GA Mendoza, EG AF Calvo, GA Mendoza, EG TI Petty crime and cruel punishment: Lessons from the Mexican debacle SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT 108th Annual Meeting of the American-Economic-Association CY JAN 05-07, 1996 CL SAN FRANCISCO, CA SP Amer Econ Assoc C1 FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,INT FINANCE DIV,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. RP Calvo, GA (reprint author), UNIV MARYLAND,CTR INT ECON,DEPT ECON,COLLEGE PK,MD 20742, USA. NR 11 TC 18 Z9 18 U1 1 U2 8 PU AMER ECON ASSN PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY SUITE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD MAY PY 1996 VL 86 IS 2 BP 170 EP 175 PG 6 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA UL373 UT WOS:A1996UL37300033 ER PT J AU Hall, AR Rudebusch, GD Wilcox, DW AF Hall, AR Rudebusch, GD Wilcox, DW TI Judging instrument relevance in instrumental variables estimation SO INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID SAMPLE PROPERTIES AB Recent research has emphasized the poor finite-sample performance of the instrumental variables (IV) estimator when the instruments are weakly correlated with the regressors. We show how the canonical correlations between regressors and instruments can provide a measure of instrument relevance in the general multiple-instrument-multiple-regressor case. However, our simulation results indicate that any such relevance measure probably has little practical merit, as its use may actually exacerbate the poor finite-sample properties of the IV estimator. C1 FED RESERVE BANK,SAN FRANCISCO,CA. FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. RP Hall, AR (reprint author), N CAROLINA STATE UNIV,RALEIGH,NC 27695, USA. NR 26 TC 121 Z9 121 U1 0 U2 3 PU UNIV PENN PI PHILADELPHIA PA DEPT ECON MCNEIL BLDG CR, PHILADELPHIA, PA 19174 SN 0020-6598 J9 INT ECON REV JI Int. Econ. Rev. PD MAY PY 1996 VL 37 IS 2 BP 283 EP 298 DI 10.2307/2527324 PG 16 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA UJ411 UT WOS:A1996UJ41100002 ER PT J AU Atkeson, A Kehoe, PJ AF Atkeson, A Kehoe, PJ TI Social insurance and transition SO INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID GROWTH; REFORM; INCOME AB We study the general equilibrium effects of social insurance on transition in a model in which the process of moving workers from matches in the state sector to new matches in the private sector takes time and involves uncertainty. As might be expected, adding social insurance to an economy without any improves welfare. Contrary to standard intuition, however, adding social insurance may slow transition. We show that this result depends crucially on general equilibrium interactions of interest rates and savings under alternative market structures. C1 NATL BUR ECON RES,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN. RP Atkeson, A (reprint author), UNIV PENN,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19104, USA. NR 19 TC 15 Z9 15 U1 0 U2 3 PU UNIV PENN PI PHILADELPHIA PA DEPT ECON MCNEIL BLDG CR, PHILADELPHIA, PA 19174 SN 0020-6598 J9 INT ECON REV JI Int. Econ. Rev. PD MAY PY 1996 VL 37 IS 2 BP 377 EP 401 DI 10.2307/2527329 PG 25 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA UJ411 UT WOS:A1996UJ41100007 ER PT J AU Holmes, TJ AF Holmes, TJ TI Can consumers benefit from a policy limiting the market share of a dominant firm? SO INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATION LA English DT Article DE dominant firm; market share limits; predatory pricing; dumping AB This paper asks if consumers can possibly benefit from a policy limiting the market share of a dominant firm. In the near term the policy is bad for consumers because an output constraint on the dominant firm raises the current price. However, the policy stimulates investment in the competitive fringe sector. The policy might reduce the future price as the expanded fringe sector disciplines the future pricing behavior of the dominant firm. In such a case, however, the policy has a welfare trade-off for consumers: a cost in the current period and a benefit in the future period. This paper shows that the net effect on consumer welfare is negative in the leading case in which the dominant and fringe firms share the same technology. The analysis has applications for both domestic antitrust and international trade policies. RP Holmes, TJ (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,RES DEPT,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55480, USA. NR 14 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 0 U2 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0167-7187 J9 INT J IND ORGAN JI Int. J. Ind. Organ. PD MAY PY 1996 VL 14 IS 3 BP 365 EP 387 DI 10.1016/0167-7187(94)00466-8 PG 23 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA UR074 UT WOS:A1996UR07400006 ER PT J AU Sinai, J AF Sinai, J TI Civil-military relations in Israel - BenMeir,Y SO INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF MIDDLE EAST STUDIES LA English DT Book Review RP Sinai, J (reprint author), LIB CONGRESS,FED RESERVE DIV,WASHINGTON,DC 20540, USA. NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS PI NEW YORK PA 40 WEST 20TH STREET, NEW YORK, NY 10011-4211 SN 0020-7438 J9 INT J MIDDLE E STUD JI Int. J. Middle East Stud. PD MAY PY 1996 VL 28 IS 2 BP 275 EP 277 PG 3 WC Area Studies SC Area Studies GA UH988 UT WOS:A1996UH98800019 ER PT J AU Brewer, E Jackson, WE Mondschean, TS AF Brewer, E Jackson, WE Mondschean, TS TI Risk, regulation, and S&L diversification into nontraditional assets SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article DE nontraditional assets; asset risk; real estate specialized; S&L regulation; market valuation ID ALTERNATIVE MORTGAGE INSTRUMENTS AB Risk exposure is a central issue in the debate over allowing savings and loan associations (S&Ls) to expand into nontraditional activities, This paper examines the relationship between risk and portfolio composition of three distinct groups of S&L lenders based on their investment strategies: real estate specialized (RES) S&L lenders with high holdings of adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), RES S&L lenders with low ARMs, and not real estate specialized (NRES) S&L lenders. The major findings of this paper suggest that diversification into nontraditional assets leads to lower risk and higher average returns for RES firms with low ARMs, but for NRES firms it leads to higher risk and (in some cases) lower average returns, This latter group of institutions appears to be using nontraditional assets as a means to increase their risk exposure and not necessarily their average stock returns. In addition, we find that risk increases for RES S&Ls with high ARMs as additional adjustable-rate mortgages are added to their portfolios. This is not the case for the low ARMs group and may indicate that at some level the increase in credit risk dominates the decrease in interest rate risk associated with additional ARMs, relative to fixed-rate mortgages. These results strongly suggest that while additional diversification provides risk reduction opportunities for some S&Ls, it also provides opportunities for other S&Ls to increase their risk exposure. C1 FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,CHICAGO,IL. UNIV N CAROLINA,KENAN FLAGLER BUSINESS SCH,CHAPEL HILL,NC 27514. DEPAUL UNIV,CHICAGO,IL 60604. RP Brewer, E (reprint author), UNIV ILLINOIS,340 COMMERCE W BLDG,1206 S 6TH ST,CHAMPAIGN,IL 61820, USA. NR 26 TC 5 Z9 5 U1 0 U2 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD MAY PY 1996 VL 20 IS 4 BP 723 EP 744 DI 10.1016/0378-4266(95)00022-4 PG 22 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA UL189 UT WOS:A1996UL18900007 ER PT J AU Hess, GD Orphanides, A AF Hess, GD Orphanides, A TI Taxation and intergenerational transfers with family-size heterogeneity: Do parents with more children prefer higher taxes? SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID BUDGET DEFICITS; DEBT; FERTILITY; POLICY C1 FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,DIV MONETARY AFFAIRS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. FED RESERVE BANK,KANSAS CITY,KS. RP Hess, GD (reprint author), UNIV KANSAS,LAWRENCE,KS 66045, USA. NR 21 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 3 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD MAY PY 1996 VL 28 IS 2 BP 162 EP 177 DI 10.2307/2078021 PG 16 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA UL302 UT WOS:A1996UL30200002 ER PT J AU Bradbury, KL Kodrzycki, YK Mayer, CJ AF Bradbury, KL Kodrzycki, YK Mayer, CJ TI Spatial and labor market contributions to earnings inequality: An overview SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Symposium on Spatial and Labor Market Contributions to Earnings Inequality CY NOV 17, 1995 CL FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON, BOSTON, MA HO FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON RP Bradbury, KL (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02106, USA. NR 0 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 2 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD MAY-JUN PY 1996 BP 1 EP 10 PG 10 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA UT324 UT WOS:A1996UT32400001 ER PT J AU Kodrzycki, YK AF Kodrzycki, YK TI Labor markets and earnings inequality: A status report SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Symposium on Spatial and Labor Market Contributions to Earnings Inequality CY NOV 17, 1995 CL FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON, BOSTON, MA HO FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON ID FAMILY INCOME; SKILL RP Kodrzycki, YK (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02106, USA. NR 57 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 0 U2 5 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD MAY-JUN PY 1996 BP 11 EP 25 PG 15 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA UT324 UT WOS:A1996UT32400002 ER PT J AU Mayer, CJ AF Mayer, CJ TI Does location matter? SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Symposium on Spatial and Labor Market Contributions to Earnings Inequality CY NOV 17, 1995 CL FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON, BOSTON, MA HO FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON ID YOUTH EMPLOYMENT RATES; JOB ACCESSIBILITY RP Mayer, CJ (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02210, USA. NR 56 TC 17 Z9 17 U1 0 U2 3 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD MAY-JUN PY 1996 BP 26 EP 40 PG 15 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA UT324 UT WOS:A1996UT32400003 ER PT J AU Akerlof, GA Yellen, JL Katz, ML AF Akerlof, GA Yellen, JL Katz, ML TI An analysis of out-of-wedlock childbearing in the United States SO QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID FAMILY; WELFARE; BIRTHS AB This paper relates the erosion of the custom of shotgun marriage to the legalization of abortion and the increased availability of contraception to unmarried women in the United States. The decline in shotgun marriage accounts for a significant fraction of the increase in out-of-wedlock first births. Several models illustrate the analogy between women who do not adopt either birth control or abortion and the hand-loom weavers, both victims of changing technology. Mechanisms causing female immiseration are modeled and historically described. This technology-shock hypothesis is an alternative to welfare and job-shortage theories of the feminization of poverty. C1 BROOKINGS INST,FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20036. RP Akerlof, GA (reprint author), UNIV CALIF BERKELEY,BERKELEY,CA 94720, USA. NR 34 TC 150 Z9 150 U1 5 U2 18 PU MIT PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA 55 HAYWARD ST JOURNALS DEPT, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 SN 0033-5533 J9 Q J ECON JI Q. J. Econ. PD MAY PY 1996 VL 111 IS 2 BP 277 EP 317 DI 10.2307/2946680 PG 41 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA UL132 UT WOS:A1996UL13200001 ER PT J AU Elmendorf, DW Hirschfeld, ML Weil, DN AF Elmendorf, DW Hirschfeld, ML Weil, DN TI The effect of news on bond prices: Evidence from the United Kingdom, 1900-1920 SO REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS LA English DT Article ID INTEREST-RATES; DEFICITS; TRADERS AB We study the relationship of news to bond prices. We select a set of major news events based solely on their significance as judged by historians, and examine the corresponding bond price movements. The variance of holding returns is higher for weeks with important news than for weeks without such news, and the probability of a very large return (in absolute value) is higher for ''news'' weeks than for ''non-news'' weeks. The magnitude of these differences, however, suggests that much of the variability in bond prices cannot be explained by news, though important caveats about our measurement of news apply. C1 OCCIDENTAL COLL,LOS ANGELES,CA 90041. BROWN UNIV,PROVIDENCE,RI 02912. NBER,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. RP Elmendorf, DW (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 22 TC 5 Z9 5 U1 1 U2 3 PU MIT PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA 55 HAYWARD ST JOURNALS DEPT, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 SN 0034-6535 J9 REV ECON STAT JI Rev. Econ. Stat. PD MAY PY 1996 VL 78 IS 2 BP 341 EP 344 DI 10.2307/2109937 PG 4 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA UN446 UT WOS:A1996UN44600019 ER PT J AU Bencivenga, VR Smith, BD Starr, RM AF Bencivenga, VR Smith, BD Starr, RM TI Equity markets, transactions costs, and capital accumulation: An illustration SO WORLD BANK ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT World-Bank Conference on Stock Markets, Corporate Finance, and Economic Growth CY FEB 16-17, 1995 CL WASHINGTON, DC SP World Bank ID FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION; ENDOGENOUS GROWTH; INTEREST-RATES AB Poorly developed equity markets inhibit the transfer of capital ownership. Moreover, the costs of transacting in equity markets affect not just the level of investment, but the kinds of investments that are undertaken. Once equity markets allow the ownership of capital to be transferred economically, reductions in costs tend to favor the use of longer-maturity investments. When there is a relationship between the maturity of an investment and its productivity, transactions cost reductions are conducive to observing certain kinds of increases in productive efficiency. This article analyzes savings, investment, and consumption decisions by using an overlapping generations model with two-period-lived agents. The analysis allows for several technologies for converting current output into future capital that vary by productivity and maturity, and it makes ownership of capital costly to transfer. A reduction in transactions costs will typically alter the composition of savings and investment, and have potentially complicated consequences for capital accumulation and steady-state output. C1 FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,RES DEPT,MINNEAPOLIS,MN. UNIV CALIF SAN DIEGO,DEPT ECON,SAN DIEGO,CA 92103. RP Bencivenga, VR (reprint author), CORNELL UNIV,DEPT ECON,ITHACA,NY 14853, USA. NR 29 TC 39 Z9 40 U1 1 U2 3 PU WORLD BANK PUBLICATIONS PI WASHINGTON PA 1818 H STREET, NW ROOM J1085 ATTN: SANDY KEOWEN, WASHINGTON, DC 20433 SN 0258-6770 J9 WORLD BANK ECON REV JI World Bank Econ. Rev. PD MAY PY 1996 VL 10 IS 2 BP 241 EP 265 PG 25 WC Business, Finance; Economics; Planning & Development SC Business & Economics; Public Administration GA VA093 UT WOS:A1996VA09300002 ER PT J AU Boyd, J Smith, B AF Boyd, J Smith, B TI The coevolution of the real and financial sectors in the growth process SO WORLD BANK ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT World-Bank Conference on Stock Markets, Corporate Finance, and Economic Growth CY FEB 16-17, 1995 CL WASHINGTON, DC SP World Bank ID ENDOGENOUS GROWTH; DEBT CONTRACTS; INTERMEDIATION AB The role of debt and equity changes over time and with the level of development. What are these changes, and why should they systematically occur across different countries and time periods? This article characterizes financial innovation as a dynamic process that both influences and is influenced by the development of the real sector. It focuses on the emergence and development of equity markets, using a model that allows for growth and for capital accumulation that is financed externally through a combination of debt and equity. As an economy develops, the aggregate ratio of debt to equity will generally fall; yet, debt and equity remain complementary sources for the financing of capital investments. The results suggest how various government policy actions might affect capital accumulation and equity market activity. C1 UNIV MINNESOTA,CARLSON SCH MANAGEMENT,DEPT FINANCE,MINNEAPOLIS,MN. CORNELL UNIV,DEPT ECON,ITHACA,NY 14853. RP Boyd, J (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,RES DEPT,MINNEAPOLIS,MN, USA. NR 37 TC 47 Z9 48 U1 4 U2 10 PU WORLD BANK PUBLICATIONS PI WASHINGTON PA 1818 H STREET, NW ROOM J1085 ATTN: SANDY KEOWEN, WASHINGTON, DC 20433 SN 0258-6770 J9 WORLD BANK ECON REV JI World Bank Econ. Rev. PD MAY PY 1996 VL 10 IS 2 BP 371 EP 396 PG 26 WC Business, Finance; Economics; Planning & Development SC Business & Economics; Public Administration GA VA093 UT WOS:A1996VA09300007 ER PT J AU Brayton, F Tinsley, PA AF Brayton, F Tinsley, PA TI Effective interest rate policies for price stability SO ECONOMIC MODELLING LA English DT Article DE commodity price targeting; direct price targeting; money stock targeting; nominal output targeting ID INCOME; MONEY AB Recent years have seen a trend among central banks of industrial economies to downgrade operational target ranges for exchange rates or monetary aggregates and to adopt price stability as the nominal anchor of monetary policy. This paper contrasts the effects of four simple interest rate policies on the volatility of final demand prices and output. Policy responses are initiated by movements in one of four alternative nominal indicators nominal output, the money stock, a commodity price index and the final demand price index itself. A strong rank ordering of expected performances is indicated for the four policies. The reasons for this performance ordering of policies are sufficiently general that it is likely to hold for many empirical models of industrial economies. C1 FED RESERVE BOARD,DIV RES & STAT,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. NR 39 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 1 PU BUTTERWORTH-HEINEMANN LTD PI OXFORD PA THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD, OXON, ENGLAND OX5 1GB SN 0264-9993 J9 ECON MODEL JI Econ. Model. PD APR PY 1996 VL 13 IS 2 BP 289 EP 314 DI 10.1016/0264-9993(96)01012-7 PG 26 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA UU895 UT WOS:A1996UU89500005 ER PT J AU Freeman, S Haslag, JH AF Freeman, S Haslag, JH TI On the optimality of interest-bearing reserves in economies of overlapping generations SO ECONOMIC THEORY LA English DT Article ID PUBLIC PRODUCTION; OPTIMAL TAXATION; REQUIREMENTS; MONEY AB Paying interest on required reserves is considered in an overlapping generations model in which the return to capital dominates the return to hat money. As Smith (1991) showed, financing interest on reserves benefits the initial old at the expense of future generations. We show that the transfer of wealth associated with interest on reserves can be offset by an accommodating open market purchase, so that the payment of interest on reserves is a Pareto improvement. We also show that paying interest on reserves improves welfare even when financed by distorting taxes on capital. C1 FED RESERVE BANK DALLAS,RES DEPT,DALLAS,TX 75201. UNIV TEXAS,DEPT ECON,AUSTIN,TX 78712. SO METHODIST UNIV,DEPT ECON,DALLAS,TX 75275. NR 15 TC 6 Z9 6 U1 0 U2 2 PU SPRINGER VERLAG PI NEW YORK PA 175 FIFTH AVE, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0938-2259 J9 ECON THEORY JI Econ. Theory PD APR PY 1996 VL 7 IS 3 BP 557 EP 565 DI 10.1007/BF01213668 PG 9 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA UK472 UT WOS:A1996UK47200012 ER PT J AU Koenig, EF AF Koenig, EF TI Targeting nominal income: A closer look SO ECONOMICS LETTERS LA English DT Article DE nominal income target; monetary policy ID CONTRACTS; MONEY AB I derive conditions under which the monetary authority should target nominal spending. The relevant spending target is a weighted average of income and consumption. Despite 'sticky' nominal wages, under optimal policy the economy behaves as if all markets clear. RP Koenig, EF (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK DALLAS,2200 N PEARL ST,DALLAS,TX 75201, USA. NR 13 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 1 U2 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA LAUSANNE PI LAUSANNE 1 PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE 1, SWITZERLAND SN 0165-1765 J9 ECON LETT JI Econ. Lett. PD APR PY 1996 VL 51 IS 1 BP 89 EP 93 DI 10.1016/0165-1765(95)00792-X PG 5 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA UP426 UT WOS:A1996UP42600013 ER PT J AU Chen, L AF Chen, L TI A bond pricing formula under a non-trivial, three-factor model of interest rates SO ECONOMICS LETTERS LA English DT Article DE term structure; stochastic volatility; time-varying mean; bond pricing; multi-factor model AB In this paper a bond pricing formula is derived under a non-trivial, three-factor model of interest rates. In the model the future short rate depends on (1) the current short rate, (2) the short-term mean of the short rate, and (3) the current volatility of the short rate. In addition, it is assumed that both the short-term mean and the volatility are stochastic. RP Chen, L (reprint author), FED RES BOARD,20TH & CONSTITUT AVE,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 4 TC 1 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA LAUSANNE PI LAUSANNE 1 PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE 1, SWITZERLAND SN 0165-1765 J9 ECON LETT JI Econ. Lett. PD APR PY 1996 VL 51 IS 1 BP 95 EP 99 DI 10.1016/0165-1765(95)00743-1 PG 5 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA UP426 UT WOS:A1996UP42600014 ER PT J AU Burnside, AC Eichenbaum, MS Rebelo, ST AF Burnside, AC Eichenbaum, MS Rebelo, ST TI Sectoral Solow residuals SO EUROPEAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT 10th Annual Congress of the European-Economic-Association CY SEP 01-04, 1995 CL PRAGUE, CZECH REPUBLIC SP European Econom Assoc DE business cycles; productivity; Solow residual AB This paper presents capital utilization corrected measures of technology shocks for aggregate and disaggregated (two-digit Standard Industrial Classification code) industries. We correct for variations in capital utilization by employing industrial electrical use as a measure of capital services. In contrast, the standard measures of technology shocks used in the Real Business Cycle literature are based on economy wide data and assume that capital services are proportional to the stock of measured capital. To assess the impact of these differences, we contrast selected properties of the competing technology shock measures. We argue that the properties of technology shocks for the manufacturing sector are quite different than those used in the RBC literature. We also find that correcting for capital utilization has important implications for the properties of the Solow residual. C1 NORTHWESTERN UNIV,CHICAGO,IL 60611. FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,CHICAGO,IL. NBER,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. UNIV ROCHESTER,ROCHESTER,NY 14627. CEPR,LONDON,ENGLAND. RP Burnside, AC (reprint author), WORLD BANK,N11-055,1818 H ST NW,WASHINGTON,DC 20008, USA. RI nipe, cef/A-4218-2010 NR 4 TC 25 Z9 26 U1 0 U2 6 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0014-2921 J9 EUR ECON REV JI Eur. Econ. Rev. PD APR PY 1996 VL 40 IS 3-5 BP 861 EP 869 DI 10.1016/0014-2921(95)00095-X PG 9 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA UV637 UT WOS:A1996UV63700033 ER PT J AU Buchmueller, TC Valletta, RG AF Buchmueller, TC Valletta, RG TI The effects of employer-provided health insurance on worker mobility SO INDUSTRIAL & LABOR RELATIONS REVIEW LA English DT Article ID JOB MOBILITY; TURNOVER AB The authors use data from the 1984 Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) to investigate whether employer-provided health insurance reduced worker mobility (a phenomenon termed ''job-lock''). The SIPP provides information on variables-particularly pension receipt, job tenure, and spouse job change-that were omitted from previous studies and are, the authors argue, key to the estimation of well-defined mobility models. For dual-earner married men and women, the authors estimate a model that accounts for the interaction between husbands' and wives' job change decisions. For both married and single individuals, the results provide fairly strong evidence of job-lock among women, but only weak indications of job-lock among men. The authors speculate that this finding reflects higher health care use by women than by men. C1 UNIV CALIF IRVINE, GRAD SCH MANAGEMENT, IRVINE, CA 92717 USA. FED RESERVE BANK, SAN FRANCISCO, CA 94105 USA. NR 27 TC 38 Z9 38 U1 1 U2 8 PU INDUSTRIAL LABOR RELAT REV PI ITHACA PA CORNELL UNIV, ITHACA, NY 14851-0952 USA SN 0019-7939 EI 2162-271X J9 IND LABOR RELAT REV JI Ind. Labor Relat. Rev. PD APR PY 1996 VL 49 IS 3 BP 439 EP 455 DI 10.2307/2524196 PG 17 WC Industrial Relations & Labor SC Business & Economics GA UG313 UT WOS:A1996UG31300004 ER PT J AU Neumark, D Sharpe, SA AF Neumark, D Sharpe, SA TI Rents and quasi rents in the wage structure: Evidence from hostile takeovers SO INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS LA English DT Article ID FREE CASH FLOW; EFFICIENCY WAGES; REVERSIONS; CONTRACTS; DIFFERENTIALS; OWNERSHIP; BEHAVIOR; PROFILES; INDUSTRY; ABILITY AB We test whether industry-related variation in wage premia and slopes of wage profiles reflects payments of rents or quasi rents, taking our cue from the wealth-transfer hypothesis, which argues that hostile takeovers target such rents. If these wage structure characteristics reflect extramarginal payments, then hostile takeover attempts that sought to transfer wealth from workers to shareholders should have targeted firms with the highest wage premia or the steepest wage profiles. We find that the likelihood of being a hostile takeover target between 1979 and 1989 was generally unrelated to these industry-related characteristics of the wage structure. C1 NATL BUR ECON RES,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. FED RESERVE SYST,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. RP Neumark, D (reprint author), MICHIGAN STATE UNIV,DEPT ECON,E LANSING,MI 48824, USA. NR 50 TC 5 Z9 5 U1 2 U2 5 PU BLACKWELL PUBLISHERS PI CAMBRIDGE PA 350 MAIN STREET, STE 6, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02148-5023 SN 0019-8676 J9 IND RELAT JI Ind. Relat. PD APR PY 1996 VL 35 IS 2 BP 145 EP 179 DI 10.1111/j.1468-232X.1996.tb00400.x PG 35 WC Industrial Relations & Labor SC Business & Economics GA UH497 UT WOS:A1996UH49700001 ER PT J AU Holmes, TJ Schmitz, JA AF Holmes, TJ Schmitz, JA TI Nonresponse bias and business turnover rates: The case of the characteristics of business owners survey SO JOURNAL OF BUSINESS & ECONOMIC STATISTICS LA English DT Article DE business discontinuance; business survival; nonignorable nonresponse AB This article considers the problem of nonresponse in the Characteristics of Business Owners survey. It presents a novel approach for assessing the extent to which nonresponse is nonignorable. The method exploits the fact that all of the owners of multiowner firms were surveyed. The article uses information received from a responding owner to derive inferences about a nonresponding owner of the same firm. It provides evidence that nonrespondents are more likely than respondents to discontinue ownership. The article estimates a variety of models of the joint process of ownership survival and survey response and quantifies the effects of ignoring nonresponse. C1 FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,RES DEPT,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55480. RP Holmes, TJ (reprint author), UNIV MINNESOTA,DEPT ECON,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55455, USA. NR 13 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 0 U2 2 PU AMER STATIST ASSN PI ALEXANDRIA PA 1429 DUKE ST, ALEXANDRIA, VA 22314 SN 0735-0015 J9 J BUS ECON STAT JI J. Bus. Econ. Stat. PD APR PY 1996 VL 14 IS 2 BP 231 EP 241 DI 10.2307/1392435 PG 11 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods; Statistics & Probability SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences; Mathematics GA UN179 UT WOS:A1996UN17900011 ER PT J AU Chatterjee, S Corbae, D AF Chatterjee, S Corbae, D TI Money and finance with costly commitment SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE commitment problems; asset pricing; money and interest; financial development ID ECONOMIC-ACTIVITY; GROWTH AB We develop a variant of Townsend's turnpike model where the trading friction is related to a commitment problem rather than spatial separation alone. Specifically, expenditure on financial services is necessary to ensure commitment. When commitment is costless, the equilibrium allocation is equivalent to that from an Arrow sequential markets equilibrium. When commitment is prohibitively expensive, the allocation is similar to the Townsend equilibrium. We use numerical examples to study the consequences of costly commitment for co-existence of money and credit, asset pricing, welfare implications of currency and variations in its growth rate, and the relationships between income and financial development. C1 UNIV IOWA,DEPT ECON,IOWA CITY,IA 52242. RP Chatterjee, S (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK PHILADELPHIA,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19106, USA. NR 25 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD APR PY 1996 VL 37 IS 2 BP 225 EP 248 PG 24 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA UW922 UT WOS:A1996UW92200003 ER PT J AU Faust, J AF Faust, J TI Whom can we trust to run the Fed? Theoretical support for the founders' views SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE central bank design; monetary policy; voting ID MACROECONOMIC POLICY; BARGAINING MODEL; PLANS AB The Federal Reserve has been called a bizarre policymaking structure. This paper documents and formalizes a historical argument that the Fed's structure was a response to public conflict over inflation's redistributive powers. The paper shows that, in the face of conflict over redistributive inflation, policy by majority can lead to policy that is worse, even for the majority, than obvious alternatives. In balancing the interests for and against surprise inflation, the Fed's structure can lead to a better outcome. RP Faust, J (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD,INT FINANCE DIV,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 29 TC 26 Z9 26 U1 0 U2 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD APR PY 1996 VL 37 IS 2 BP 267 EP 283 DI 10.1016/0304-3932(96)01254-8 PG 17 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA UW922 UT WOS:A1996UW92200005 ER PT J AU Kaminsky, GL Lewis, KK AF Kaminsky, GL Lewis, KK TI Does foreign exchange intervention signal future monetary policy? SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE monetary policy; foreign exchange intervention ID TERM INTEREST-RATES; MONEY; TRANSMISSION AB A frequently cited explanation for why foreign exchange interventions affect the exchange rate is that these interventions signal future monetary policy intentions. This explanation says that central banks signal a more contractionary monetary policy in the future by buying domestic currency today. Therefore, the expectations of future tighter monetary policy make the domestic currency appreciate, even though the current monetary effects of the intervention are typically offset by central banks. Of course, this explanation presumes that central banks in fact back up interventions with subsequent changes in monetary policy. In this paper, we empirically examine this presumption. C1 UNIV PENN,WHARTON SCH,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19104. NATL BUR ECON RES,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. NR 27 TC 61 Z9 62 U1 0 U2 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD APR PY 1996 VL 37 IS 2 BP 285 EP 312 DI 10.1016/S0304-3932(96)90038-0 PG 28 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA UW922 UT WOS:A1996UW92200006 ER PT J AU Israilevich, PR Hewings, GJD Schindler, GR Mahidhara, R AF Israilevich, PR Hewings, GJD Schindler, GR Mahidhara, R TI The choice of an input-output table embedded in regional econometric input-output models SO PAPERS IN REGIONAL SCIENCE LA English DT Article AB In this paper, we investigate the role of input-output data sources in regional econometric input-output models. While there has been a great deal of experimentation focused on the accuracy of alternative methods for estimating regional input-output coefficients, little attention has been directed to the role of accuracy when the input-output system is nested within a broader accounting framework. The issues of accuracy were considered in two contexts, forecasting and impact analysis focusing on a model developed for the Chicago region. We experimented with three input-output data sources: observed regional data, national input-output, and randomly generated input-output coefficients. The effects of different sources of input-output data on regional econometric input-output models revealed that there are significant differences in results obtained in both forecast and impact analyses. The adjustment processes inherent in the econometric input-output system did not mask the differences imbedded in input-output tables derived from different data sources. Since applications of these types of models involve both impact and forecasting exercises, there should be strong motivation for basing the system on the most accurate set of input-output accounts. C1 UNIV ILLINOIS,REG ECON APPLICAT LAB,URBANA,IL 61801. RP Israilevich, PR (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,CHICAGO,IL 60604, USA. RI Hewings, Geoffrey/B-2058-2014 NR 26 TC 11 Z9 13 U1 0 U2 9 PU REGIONAL SCI ASSOC INT, PI URBANA PA UNIV ILLINOIS, ROOM 1, OBSERVATORY, 901 S MATTHEWS, AVE, URBANA, IL 61801-3682 SN 1056-8190 J9 PAP REG SCI JI Pap. Reg. Sci. PD APR PY 1996 VL 75 IS 2 BP 103 EP 119 DI 10.1007/BF02404702 PG 17 WC Economics; Environmental Studies; Geography SC Business & Economics; Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Geography GA WC335 UT WOS:A1996WC33500003 ER PT J AU Ahmed, S Croushore, D AF Ahmed, S Croushore, D TI The marginal cost of funds with nonseparable public spending SO PUBLIC FINANCE QUARTERLY LA English DT Article ID WELFARE COST; TAX RATES; UNITED-STATES; TAXATION; EQUILIBRIUM; PROVISION; BEHAVIOR; GOODS AB This article provides new calculations of the welfare effects of fiscal changes when the publicly provided good is nonseparable in utility and production so that it affects economic agents' marginal decisions. The authors' results show that these nonseparabilities significantly alter the marginal cost of funds (MCF) that previous studies have calculated The authors also report estimates of the nonseparable marginal benefits (NSMB) associated with aggregate government purchases. The net marginal cost of funds (NMCF), which is equal to MCF - NSMB, is in general positive over a wide range of parameter values that encompass empirically relevant specifications. Thus the nonseparable benefits by themselves are not sufficient for a marginal increase in aggregate government purchases of goods and services to be worthwhile. C1 FED RESERVE BANK PHILADELPHIA,DIV RES,PHILADELPHIA,PA. RP Ahmed, S (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,INT FINANCE DIV,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 25 TC 7 Z9 7 U1 0 U2 10 PU SAGE SCIENCE PRESS PI THOUSAND OAKS PA 2455 TELLER RD, THOUSAND OAKS, CA 91320 SN 0048-5853 J9 PUBLIC FINANC QUART JI Public Financ. Q. PD APR PY 1996 VL 24 IS 2 BP 216 EP 236 DI 10.1177/109114219602400206 PG 21 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA UE534 UT WOS:A1996UE53400006 ER PT J AU Krusell, P RiosRull, JV AF Krusell, P RiosRull, JV TI Vested interests in a positive theory of stagnation and growth SO REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES LA English DT Article ID ENDOGENOUS GROWTH AB We study a positive theory of stagnation and growth aimed at understanding the large variations in growth outcomes across actual economies. The theory points to the fundamental role played by vested interests in determining policies which are key to the growth process: some agents seek to prevent the adoption of new technologies. We develop a model of technology adoption, and show how technological innovation may sow the seeds of its own destruction. In particular, we find that the equilibrium is characterized by a long cycle of stagnation and growth. Over this cycle, incumbent innovators have sufficient political influence that new technologies are prohibited, and only as these incumbents are phased out of the economy will new innovation occur. In formalizing our theory we make a methodological contribution by characterizing dynamic voting equilibria in which voters must forecast the effects of different current policies on future prices and policy outcomes. C1 UNIV PENN,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19104. FED RESERVE BANK,MINNEAPOLIS,MN. RP Krusell, P (reprint author), UNIV ROCHESTER,ROCHESTER,NY 14627, USA. NR 23 TC 107 Z9 108 U1 1 U2 10 PU REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES LTD PI OXFORD PA C/O BASIL BLACKWELL LTD 108 COWLEY RD, OXFORD, OXON, ENGLAND OX4 1JF SN 0034-6527 J9 REV ECON STUD JI Rev. Econ. Stud. PD APR PY 1996 VL 63 IS 2 BP 301 EP 329 DI 10.2307/2297854 PG 29 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA UD564 UT WOS:A1996UD56400006 ER PT J AU Antzoulatos, AA AF Antzoulatos, AA TI Error correction mechanisms and short-run expectations SO SOUTHERN ECONOMIC JOURNAL LA English DT Article RP Antzoulatos, AA (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,NEW YORK,NY 10045, USA. NR 16 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 1 U2 2 PU UNIV NORTH CAROLINA PI CHAPEL HILL PA SOUTHERN ECONOMIC JOURNAL, CHAPEL HILL, NC 27514 SN 0038-4038 J9 SOUTHERN ECON J JI South. Econ. J. PD APR PY 1996 VL 62 IS 4 BP 845 EP 855 DI 10.2307/1060932 PG 11 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA UE511 UT WOS:A1996UE51100002 ER PT J AU Yucel, MK AF Yucel, MK TI Reducing US vulnerability to oil supply shocks: Reply SO SOUTHERN ECONOMIC JOURNAL LA English DT Article RP Yucel, MK (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK DALLAS,DALLAS,TX 75222, USA. NR 2 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 1 PU UNIV NORTH CAROLINA PI CHAPEL HILL PA SOUTHERN ECONOMIC JOURNAL, CHAPEL HILL, NC 27514 SN 0038-4038 J9 SOUTHERN ECON J JI South. Econ. J. PD APR PY 1996 VL 62 IS 4 BP 1096 EP 1097 DI 10.2307/1060955 PG 2 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA UE511 UT WOS:A1996UE51100025 ER PT J AU Munnell, AH Tootell, GMB Browne, LE McEneaney, J AF Munnell, AH Tootell, GMB Browne, LE McEneaney, J TI Mortgage lending in Boston: Interpreting HMDA data SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID ORDINARY LEAST-SQUARES; DISCRIMINATION AB The Home Mortgage Disclosure Act was enacted to monitor minority and low-income access to the mortgage market. The data collected for this purpose show that minorities are more than twice as likely to be denied a mortgage as whites. Yet variables correlated with both race and creditworthiness were omitted from these data, making any conclusion about race's role in mortgage lending impossible, The Federal Reserve Bank of Boston collected additional variables important to the mortgage lending decision and found that race continued to play an important, though significantly diminished, role in the decision to grant a mortgage. C1 FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02106. NR 21 TC 267 Z9 271 U1 7 U2 29 PU AMER ECON ASSN PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY SUITE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD MAR PY 1996 VL 86 IS 1 BP 25 EP 53 PG 29 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA UB518 UT WOS:A1996UB51800002 ER PT J AU English, WB AF English, WB TI Understanding the costs of sovereign default: American state debts In the 1840's SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID REPUDIATION AB The defaults of U.S. States in the 1840's provide a powerful test of competing models of sovereign debt. The Eleventh Amendment to the United States Constitution prevented foreign creditors from obtaining payment in the federal courts. Moreover, because the defaulting states were part of a large and economically integrated nation, creditors could not enforce payment by imposing military or trade sanctions. In spite of the lack of sanctions, however, most states eventually repaid in fill. It appears that the states repaid in order to maintain access to capital markets, much as in reputational models of sovereign debt. RP English, WB (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD,20TH & C ST NW,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 50 TC 49 Z9 49 U1 2 U2 8 PU AMER ECON ASSN PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY SUITE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD MAR PY 1996 VL 86 IS 1 BP 259 EP 275 PG 17 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA UB518 UT WOS:A1996UB51800014 ER PT J AU StarrMcCluer, M AF StarrMcCluer, M TI Health insurance and precautionary savings SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID LIFE-CYCLE; CONSUMPTION; INCOME RP StarrMcCluer, M (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 32 TC 43 Z9 43 U1 0 U2 5 PU AMER ECON ASSN PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY SUITE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD MAR PY 1996 VL 86 IS 1 BP 285 EP 295 PG 11 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA UB518 UT WOS:A1996UB51800016 ER PT J AU Roberds, W AF Roberds, W TI Budget constraints and time-series evidence on consumption: Comment SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article RP Roberds, W (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK ATLANTA,RES DEPT,104 MARIETTA ST NW,ATLANTA,GA 30303, USA. NR 3 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 2 PU AMER ECON ASSN PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY SUITE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD MAR PY 1996 VL 86 IS 1 BP 296 EP 297 PG 2 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA UB518 UT WOS:A1996UB51800017 ER PT J AU Oliner, SD Rudebusch, GD AF Oliner, SD Rudebusch, GD TI Monetary policy and credit conditions: Evidence from the composition of external finance: Comment SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID TRANSMISSION C1 FED RESERVE BANK,ECON RES DEPT,SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94105. RP Oliner, SD (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 11 TC 51 Z9 52 U1 0 U2 9 PU AMER ECON ASSN PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY SUITE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD MAR PY 1996 VL 86 IS 1 BP 300 EP 309 PG 10 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA UB518 UT WOS:A1996UB51800019 ER PT J AU Kashyap, AK Stein, JC Wilcox, DW AF Kashyap, AK Stein, JC Wilcox, DW TI Monetary policy and credit conditions: Evidence from the composition of external finance: Reply SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article C1 NATL BUR ECON RES,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. MIT,SLOAN SCH MANAGEMENT,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02142. FED RESERVE BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. RP Kashyap, AK (reprint author), UNIV CHICAGO,GRAD SCH BUSINESS,CHICAGO,IL 60637, USA. NR 9 TC 25 Z9 25 U1 0 U2 12 PU AMER ECON ASSN PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY SUITE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD MAR PY 1996 VL 86 IS 1 BP 310 EP 314 PG 5 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA UB518 UT WOS:A1996UB51800020 ER PT J AU Noe, TH Rebello, MJ Wall, LD AF Noe, TH Rebello, MJ Wall, LD TI Managerial rents and regulatory intervention in troubled banks SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article DE managerial compensation; risk-taking; bank regulation; managerial opportunism ID FEDERAL DEPOSIT INSURANCE; RISK-TAKING; EQUILIBRIUM; POLICIES AB In this paper we investigate the effects of regulatory policies on troubled banks. In our analysis banks' portfolio decisions are unobservable and are made by management. Management's decisions are influenced by the compensation and intervention policies of shareholders and regulators as well as the impact of its portfolio choice on its share of firm-specific rents. We demonstrate that firm-specific rents may induce managers to prefer risky asset portfolios. These incentives may be exacerbated by shareholder-designed compensation contracts intended to align managerial and stockholder interests. Depending on the parametric specifications of the model, both the often-criticized practice of regulatory forbearance and the compensation regulations proposed in the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Improvement Act of 1991 may form part of the deposit-insurance-loss-minimizing regulatory policy. C1 FED RESERVE BANK ATLANTA,ATLANTA,GA 30303. GEORGIA STATE UNIV,ATLANTA,GA 30303. EMORY UNIV,GOIZVETA BUSINESS SCH,ATLANTA,GA 30322. NR 22 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 0 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD MAR PY 1996 VL 20 IS 2 BP 331 EP 350 DI 10.1016/0378-4266(94)00127-8 PG 20 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA TX472 UT WOS:A1996TX47200007 ER PT J AU Gould, DM Gruben, WC AF Gould, DM Gruben, WC TI The role of intellectual property rights in economic growth SO JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE intellectual property rights protection; economic growth; international trade ID INTERNATIONAL-TRADE; TECHNOLOGY; INNOVATION; COUNTRIES; IMITATION AB By influencing the incentives to innovate, intellectual property rights protection may affect economic growth in important ways. An important question for many countries is whether stricter enforcement of intellectual property is a good strategy for economic growth. This paper examines the role of intellectual property rights in economic growth,utilizing cross-country data on patent protection, trade regime, and country-specific characteristics. The evidence suggests that intellectual property protection is a significant determinant of economic growth. These effects appear to be slightly stronger in relatively open economies and are robust to both the measure of openness used and to other alternative model specifications. RP Gould, DM (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK DALLAS,DALLAS,TX 75222, USA. NR 53 TC 120 Z9 128 U1 3 U2 35 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3878 J9 J DEV ECON JI J. Dev. Econ. PD MAR PY 1996 VL 48 IS 2 BP 323 EP 350 DI 10.1016/0304-3878(95)00039-9 PG 28 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA UK009 UT WOS:A1996UK00900005 ER PT J AU Ma, CH Smith, BD AF Ma, CH Smith, BD TI Credit market imperfections and economic development: Theory and evidence SO JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE credit rationing; growth ID INTERMEDIATION; CONTRACTS; PROGRAMS AB A model of credit markets in which there is a costly-state-verification problem is integrated into a neoclassical growth model. The presence of a credit market friction gives rise to credit rationing, which in turn impacts on the growth path of an economy. The model delivers predictions about the co-movements between per capita income, credit rationing, interest rates, and factor prices. The implications of the model are generally empirically supported in U.S. and Taiwanese data. The model also makes predictions about the consequences of government regulation of credit markets which are supported by the Taiwanese data. C1 CENT BANK CHINA,TAIPEI,TAIWAN. FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN. RP Ma, CH (reprint author), CORNELL UNIV,DEPT ECON,URIS HALL,ITHACA,NY 14853, USA. NR 34 TC 6 Z9 6 U1 5 U2 7 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3878 J9 J DEV ECON JI J. Dev. Econ. PD MAR PY 1996 VL 48 IS 2 BP 351 EP 387 DI 10.1016/0304-3878(95)00040-2 PG 37 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA UK009 UT WOS:A1996UK00900006 ER PT J AU Kocherlakota, NR AF Kocherlakota, NR TI The equity premium: It's still a puzzle SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC LITERATURE LA English DT Article ID RISK-FREE RATE; ASSET PRICING-MODELS; TEMPORAL BEHAVIOR; EMPIRICAL TESTS; INTERTEMPORAL SUBSTITUTION; STOCHASTIC CONSUMPTION; HABIT FORMATION; PRICES; RETURNS; AVERSION RP Kocherlakota, NR (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55401, USA. NR 85 TC 304 Z9 309 U1 9 U2 23 PU AMER ECON ASSN PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY SUITE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0022-0515 J9 J ECON LIT JI J. Econ. Lit. PD MAR PY 1996 VL 34 IS 1 BP 42 EP 71 PG 30 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA UC867 UT WOS:A1996UC86700002 ER PT J AU Groshen, EL AF Groshen, EL TI Comparable worth: Is it a worthy policy? - Sorensen,E SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC LITERATURE LA English DT Book Review RP Groshen, EL (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,NEW YORK,NY 10045, USA. NR 4 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 0 PU AMER ECON ASSN PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY SUITE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0022-0515 J9 J ECON LIT JI J. Econ. Lit. PD MAR PY 1996 VL 34 IS 1 BP 162 EP 163 PG 2 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA UC867 UT WOS:A1996UC86700031 ER PT J AU Jagannathan, R Wang, ZY AF Jagannathan, R Wang, ZY TI The conditional CAPM and the cross-section of expected returns SO JOURNAL OF FINANCE LA English DT Article ID ASSET PRICING-MODELS; MULTIVARIATE TESTS; STOCK RETURNS; FIRM SIZE; MARKET; RISK; EQUILIBRIUM; ARBITRAGE; BETA; COVARIANCES AB Most empirical studies of the static CAPM assume that betas remain constant over time and that the return on the value-weighted portfolio of all stocks is a proxy for the return on aggregate wealth. The general consensus is that the static CAPM is unable to explain satisfactorily the cross-section of average returns on stocks. We assume that the CAPM holds in a conditional sense, i.e., betas and the market risk premium vary over time. We include the return on human capital when measuring the return on aggregate wealth. Our specification performs well in explaining the cross-section of average returns. C1 HONG KONG UNIV SCI & TECHNOL, HONG KONG, HONG KONG. FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS, MINNEAPOLIS, MN USA. COLUMBIA UNIV, NEW YORK, NY 10027 USA. RP Jagannathan, R (reprint author), UNIV MINNESOTA, CARLSON SCH MANAGEMENT, MINNEAPOLIS, MN 55455 USA. NR 77 TC 494 Z9 509 U1 9 U2 58 PU AMER FINANCE ASSN PI NEW YORK PA 44 WEST FOURTH ST, STE 9-190, NEW YORK, NY 10012 SN 0022-1082 J9 J FINANC JI J. Financ. PD MAR PY 1996 VL 51 IS 1 BP 3 EP 53 DI 10.2307/2329301 PG 51 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA UP285 UT WOS:A1996UP28500001 ER PT J AU Helwege, J Liang, N AF Helwege, J Liang, N TI Is there a pecking order? Evidence from a panel of IPO firms SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE pecking order; external financing; IPOs ID CAPITAL STRUCTURE; INFORMATION; DECISIONS AB We test the pecking order model of capital structure by examining the financing of firms that went public in 1983, We estimate a legit to predict external financing, and a multinomial legit to predict the type of financing using data on the IPO firms' security offerings during 1984-1992. Our results indicate that the probability of obtaining external funds is unrelated to the shortfall in internally generated funds, although firms with cash surpluses avoid external financing. Firms that access the capital markets do not follow the pecking order when choosing the type of security to offer. C1 FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. RP Helwege, J (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,NEW YORK,NY 10045, USA. NR 17 TC 58 Z9 58 U1 0 U2 9 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA LAUSANNE PI LAUSANNE 1 PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE 1, SWITZERLAND SN 0304-405X J9 J FINANC ECON JI J. Financ. Econ. PD MAR PY 1996 VL 40 IS 3 BP 429 EP 458 DI 10.1016/0304-405X(95)00851-5 PG 30 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA UA859 UT WOS:A1996UA85900004 ER PT J AU Currie, J Fallick, BC AF Currie, J Fallick, BC TI The minimum wage and the employment of youth - Evidence from the NLSY SO JOURNAL OF HUMAN RESOURCES LA English DT Article ID LAWS AB Using panel data on individuals from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, we find that employed individuals who were affected by the increases in the federal minimum wage in 1979 and 1980 were about 3 percent less likely to be employed a year later, even after accounting for the fact that workers employed at the minimum wage may differ from their peers in unobserved ways. C1 FED RESERVE BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC. RP Currie, J (reprint author), UNIV CALIF LOS ANGELES,DEPT ECON,405 HILGARD AVE,LOS ANGELES,CA 90024, USA. NR 13 TC 59 Z9 59 U1 0 U2 7 PU UNIV WISCONSIN PRESS PI MADISON PA JOURNAL DIVISION, 114 N MURRAY ST, MADISON, WI 53715 SN 0022-166X J9 J HUM RESOUR JI J. Hum. Resour. PD SPR PY 1996 VL 31 IS 2 BP 404 EP 428 DI 10.2307/146069 PG 25 WC Economics; Industrial Relations & Labor SC Business & Economics GA UH412 UT WOS:A1996UH41200006 ER PT J AU Wynne, MA AF Wynne, MA TI Balanced budget multipliers SO JOURNAL OF MACROECONOMICS LA English DT Article AB This paper extends the analysis of balanced budget multipliers in the context of the standard neoclassical model by looking at the effects of changes in public sector employment. I look at the potential for multiplier effects associated with changes in the level of steady-state govern ment purchases and steady-state government employment. As is well known, with endogenous capital, output may increase more than one for one when the steady-state level of government purchases changes. This is not the case when government employment increases. RP Wynne, MA (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK DALLAS,DALLAS,TX 75222, USA. NR 13 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 1 PU LOUISIANA STATE UNIV PR PI BATON ROUGE PA BATON ROUGE, LA 70893 SN 0164-0704 J9 J MACROECON JI J. Macroecon. PD SPR PY 1996 VL 18 IS 2 BP 197 EP 211 DI 10.1016/S0164-0704(96)80065-6 PG 15 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA UC105 UT WOS:A1996UC10500001 ER PT J AU Defina, RH Stark, TC Taylor, HE AF Defina, RH Stark, TC Taylor, HE TI The long-run variance of output and inflation under alternative monetary policy rules SO JOURNAL OF MACROECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID IS-LM MODEL; MACROECONOMICS AB This study empirically estimates the trade-off between inflation and real growth variance faced by the Fed under the optimal and alternative policy rules using U.S. data covering the period 1959:i to 1993:ii. The results show that, outside a narrow band, the trade-off becomes quite steep, implying that the Fed has little room to trade-off between its goals. These results are consistent with those of Taylor (1979) and Fuhrer (1994). The estimates also suggest that smoothing interest rates would produce a combination of real growth and inflation variability reasonably close to an efficient outcome, and dominate the variance outcomes under money growth targets. The choice between interest rate smoothing and nominal GDP growth targets, and between nominal GDP and money growth targets, each depends on policy makers' preferences about stability in inflation versus real growth. C1 FED RESERVE BANK PHILADELPHIA,PHILADELPHIA,PA. RP Defina, RH (reprint author), VILLANOVA UNIV,VILLANOVA,PA 19085, USA. NR 34 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 0 PU LOUISIANA STATE UNIV PR PI BATON ROUGE PA BATON ROUGE, LA 70893 SN 0164-0704 J9 J MACROECON JI J. Macroecon. PD SPR PY 1996 VL 18 IS 2 BP 235 EP 251 DI 10.1016/S0164-0704(96)80067-X PG 17 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA UC105 UT WOS:A1996UC10500003 ER PT J AU Hooker, MA AF Hooker, MA TI How do changes in military spending affect the economy? Evidence from state-level data SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID SECTORAL SHIFTS; TIME-SERIES; UNEMPLOYMENT; FLUCTUATIONS; INDUSTRY AB One reason that business cycle turning points are hard to understand and predict may be that economists typically employ linear models, while a growing body of research suggests that many economic variables interact in a nonlinear fashion. This study measures the contribution of changes in military spending to business cycles. It uses data at the state level, which offer the advantages of a great diversity and volume of data relative to the aggregate, and a framework capable of capturing nonlinear and asymmetric relationships. The results suggest that military spending is a significant determinant of economic activity at the state level, with a modest impact on most states and a sizable impact on those with a large exposure to the military sector. The transmission of military spending changes to personal income (and to employment) appears to be nonlinear and asymmetric, with large cutbacks having proportionally larger responses than either large contract awards or small changes. C1 FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02210. RP Hooker, MA (reprint author), DARTMOUTH COLL,HANOVER,NH 03755, USA. NR 35 TC 6 Z9 6 U1 1 U2 4 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD MAR-APR PY 1996 BP 3 EP & PG 14 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA UF569 UT WOS:A1996UF56900001 ER PT J AU Fortune, P AF Fortune, P TI Anomalies in option pricing: The Black-Scholes model revisited SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article AB In 1973, Myron Scholes and the late Fischer Black published their seminal paper on option pricing. The Black-Scholes model revolutionized financial economics in several ways: It contributed to our understanding of a wide range of contracts with option-like features, and it allowed us to revise our understanding of traditional financial instruments. This article addresses the question of how well the Black-Scholes model of option pricing works. The goal is to acquaint a general audience with the key characteristics of a model that is still widely used, and to indicate the opportunities for improvement that might emerge from current research. The article reviews the key features of the Black-Scholes model, identifying some of its most prominent assumptions. The author then employs recent data on almost one-half million options transactions to evaluate the Black-Scholes model. He discusses some of the reasons why the Black-Scholes model falls short, and goes on to assess recent research designed to improve our ability to explain option prices. C1 FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02210. RP Fortune, P (reprint author), TUFTS UNIV,MEDFORD,MA 02155, USA. NR 15 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 0 U2 1 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD MAR-APR PY 1996 BP 17 EP & PG 25 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA UF569 UT WOS:A1996UF56900002 ER PT J AU Fieleke, NS AF Fieleke, NS TI International capital movements: How shocking are they? SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article AB International linkages of national capital markets have strengthened in recent years, as many nations have relaxed restrictions over their financial markets and as technical advances have speeded communications. While some controls over capital movements remain, the degree of integration is impressive - and has been for years, well before it became fashionable to speak of ''globalization.'' This article examines the volatility of capital movements relative to national outputs for 11 industrial countries. The author finds that the volatility of capital flows appears to be no greater now than in the late 1950s. He also finds that while countries experience external economic shocks quite frequently, the majority of shocks in most countries seem to originate in the goods markets rather than in the capital markets, although the very largest shocks have apparently been in capital markets. Contrary to conventional wisdom, capital-movement shocks are administered as frequently by funds invested in some form of long-term assets as by funds invested in short-term assets, although the largest swings occur in short-term capital. The article concludes with some policy recommendations. RP Fieleke, NS (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02210, USA. NR 9 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 1 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD MAR-APR PY 1996 BP 41 EP & PG 21 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA UF569 UT WOS:A1996UF56900003 ER PT J AU Peek, J Rosengren, ES AF Peek, J Rosengren, ES TI Bank regulatory agreements and real estate lending SO REAL ESTATE ECONOMICS LA English DT Article AB Recent studies have found that banks with low capital ratios have significantly decreased their lending to the real estate sector. This correlation between real estate lending and bank capital could be the result of voluntary decisions by banks to recapitalize, or it could be the result of direct actions taken by bank regulators. We find that banks with low capital ratios reduce their real estate lending substantially more after formal regulatory actions have been initiated by regulators. Furthermore, this reduction in lending is particularly large for the categories of real estate borrowers most likely to be bank dependent. C1 FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON, BOSTON, MA 02210 USA. RP Peek, J (reprint author), BOSTON COLL, CHESTNUT HILL, MA 02167 USA. NR 14 TC 8 Z9 8 U1 0 U2 0 PU WILEY-BLACKWELL PI MALDEN PA COMMERCE PLACE, 350 MAIN ST, MALDEN 02148, MA USA SN 1080-8620 J9 REAL ESTATE ECON JI Real Estate Econ. PD SPR PY 1996 VL 24 IS 1 BP 55 EP 73 DI 10.1111/1540-6229.00680 PG 19 WC Business, Finance; Economics; Urban Studies SC Business & Economics; Urban Studies GA UA328 UT WOS:A1996UA32800004 ER PT J AU Swamy, PAVB Mehta, JS Singamsetti, RN AF Swamy, PAVB Mehta, JS Singamsetti, RN TI Circumstances in which different criteria of estimation can be applied to estimate policy effects SO JOURNAL OF STATISTICAL PLANNING AND INFERENCE LA English DT Article DE stochastic laws; fixed-coefficients models; stochastic coefficients models; maximum likelihood; constrained estimation; Bayesian statistics; prediction; nuisance parameters; policy effects ID COEFFICIENTS; REGRESSIONS; CAUSALITY; MODELS; TESTS; LAWS AB In this paper, an attempt is made to connect the Swamy and Tinsley (J. Econometrics 12 (1980) 103-142) fixed-coefficients model with the Pratt and Schlaifer stochastic law and to explore the role of such a model in estimating the effects of economic policies. It is only under special conditions, to be stated explicitly in the paper, that the maximum likelihood method applied to the fixed-coefficients model yields asymptotically efficient parameter estimators. For conditions generally encountered, we propose an estimation procedure whose justification lies solely in permitting each investigator to choose among various possible estimators of the fixed-coefficients model and its special cases upon reflecting on their abilities to explain past data and experience and to yield useful predictions of future data and experience, To illustrate these methods, we utilize the interest-rate/federal deficits connection. C1 MONETARY & FINANCIAL STUDIES SECT, FED RESERVE BOARD, WASHINGTON, DC 20551 USA. TEMPLE UNIV, PHILADELPHIA, PA 19122 USA. UNIV HARTFORD, W HARTFORD, CT 06117 USA. NR 39 TC 8 Z9 8 U1 0 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-3758 EI 1873-1171 J9 J STAT PLAN INFER JI J. Stat. Plan. Infer. PD FEB 15 PY 1996 VL 50 IS 1 BP 121 EP 153 DI 10.1016/0378-3758(95)00050-X PG 33 WC Statistics & Probability SC Mathematics GA UB245 UT WOS:A1996UB24500008 ER PT J AU Krupp, CM Pollard, PS AF Krupp, CM Pollard, PS TI Market responses to antidumping laws: Some evidence from the US chemical industry SO CANADIAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS-REVUE CANADIENNE D ECONOMIQUE LA English DT Article ID ADMINISTERED PROTECTION; POLITICAL-ECONOMY AB In this paper we provide empirical evidence of the effects of the U.S. antidumping law using monthly product-specific microeconomic data from the U.S. chemical industry over the 1976-88 period. We analyse import responses, highlighting the differences between allegedly dumped and non-dumped import behaviour at the various stages of an antidumping investigation. We find a wide range of behavioural responses that do not necessarily appear to be dependent upon the final outcome of the investigations and in some cases contradict the 'accepted wisdom' of the impacts these cases have upon import behaviour. C1 FED RESERVE BANK ST LOUIS,ST LOUIS,MO. RP Krupp, CM (reprint author), MICHIGAN STATE UNIV,E LANSING,MI 48824, USA. NR 19 TC 18 Z9 20 U1 0 U2 2 PU UNIV TORONTO PRESS INC PI ONTARIO PA JOURNALS DEPT, 5201 DUFFERIN ST, ONTARIO NORTH YORK M3H 5T8, CANADA SN 0008-4085 J9 CAN J ECON JI Can. J. Econ.-Rev. Can. Econ. PD FEB PY 1996 VL 29 IS 1 BP 199 EP 227 DI 10.2307/136159 PG 29 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA TZ161 UT WOS:A1996TZ16100011 ER PT J AU Coleman, WJ Gilles, C Labadie, PA AF Coleman, WJ Gilles, C Labadie, PA TI A model of the federal funds market SO ECONOMIC THEORY LA English DT Article ID INTEREST-RATES; MONETARY-POLICY; LIQUIDITY; EQUILIBRIUM; INCOME; WINDOW; MONEY AB This paper develops a stochastic general equilibrium model of the federal funds market that incorporates non-Fisherian effects on interest rates stemming from both supply and demand shocks to reserves. Such a model may reconcile the widespread belief in a liquidity effect of money supply shocks with the difficulty many researchers have had in finding empirical support for such an effect. The model also cautions against interpreting the observed negative correlation between the federal funds rate and innovations to nonborrowed reserves as empirical confirmation of the ability of the Federal Reserve to lower short-term real interest rates. C1 FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. DUKE UNIV,FUQUA SCH BUSINESS,DURHAM,NC 27708. NR 27 TC 7 Z9 7 U1 1 U2 2 PU SPRINGER VERLAG PI NEW YORK PA 175 FIFTH AVE, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0938-2259 J9 ECON THEORY JI Econ. Theory PD FEB PY 1996 VL 7 IS 2 BP 337 EP 357 DI 10.1007/s001990050057 PG 21 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA UB433 UT WOS:A1996UB43300009 ER PT J AU Feenstra, RC Gagnon, JE Knetter, MM AF Feenstra, RC Gagnon, JE Knetter, MM TI Market share and exchange rate pass-through in world automobile trade SO JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE imperfect competition; international trade; pricing to market ID PRICE-DISCRIMINATION AB Using a Bertrand differentiated products model we show that pass-through should be high for exporters based in a country with a very large share of total destination market sales. For source countries with small and intermediate market shares, the relationship is potentially nonlinear and sensitive to assumptions about demand and firm interactions. The model is estimated using a panel data set of automobile exports from four source countries to 12 destination markets over the period 1970-88. The relationship between pass-through and market share is significantly nonlinear: pass-through is lowest when the source country's market share is around 40 percent and highest when market share approaches 100 percent. C1 DARTMOUTH COLL,DEPT ECON,HANOVER,NH 03755. UNIV CALIF DAVIS,DEPT ECON,DAVIS,CA 95616. FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. NBER,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. NR 19 TC 67 Z9 68 U1 1 U2 4 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0022-1996 J9 J INT ECON JI J. Int. Econ. PD FEB PY 1996 VL 40 IS 1-2 BP 187 EP 207 DI 10.1016/0022-1996(95)01402-0 PG 21 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA UN579 UT WOS:A1996UN57900010 ER PT J AU Wieland, V AF Wieland, V TI Monetary policy targets and the stabilization objective: A source of tension in the EMS SO JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL MONEY AND FINANCE LA English DT Article ID RATIONAL-EXPECTATIONS AB This paper evaluates two different monetary regimes in the EMS: an asymmetric regime with EMS monetary policy oriented towards German targets and a symmetric regime with EMS-wide targets. Deterministic and stochastic simulations of a macroeconometric model are used to study spillovers, adjustment and stabilization in EMS economies. They show that there exists a significant trade-off between the two regimes in terms of output and price deviations from target. While Germany enjoys more stability under the asymmetric regime, the other EMS economies are stabilized more effectively by a symmetric target. The resulting tension must have been at least partly responsible for the recent EMS crises. RP Wieland, V (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,MONETARY AFFAIRS DIV,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 14 TC 13 Z9 13 U1 0 U2 0 PU BUTTERWORTH-HEINEMANN LTD PI OXFORD PA THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD, OXON, ENGLAND OX5 1GB SN 0261-5606 J9 J INT MONEY FINANC JI J. Int. Money Finan. PD FEB PY 1996 VL 15 IS 1 BP 95 EP 116 DI 10.1016/0261-5606(95)00047-X PG 22 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA UJ145 UT WOS:A1996UJ14500005 ER PT J AU Dotsey, M Ireland, P AF Dotsey, M Ireland, P TI The welfare cost of inflation in general equilibrium SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE inflation; growth; welfare ID LONG-RUN GROWTH; MODERATE INFLATIONS; MODEL; ECONOMY; CREDIT; MONEY AB This paper presents a general equilibrium monetary model in which inflation distorts a variety of marginal decisions. Although individually none of the distortions is very large, they combine to yield substantial welfare cost estimates. A sustained 4 percent inflation like that experienced in the US since 1983 costs the economy the equivalent of 0.41 percent of output per year when currency is identified as the relevant definition of money and over 1 percent of output per year when M1 is defined as money. The results illustrate how the traditional, partial equilibrium approach can seriously underestimate the true cost of inflation. RP Dotsey, M (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK RICHMOND,RES DEPT,RICHMOND,VA 23261, USA. NR 32 TC 65 Z9 67 U1 0 U2 6 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD FEB PY 1996 VL 37 IS 1 BP 29 EP 47 DI 10.1016/0304-3932(95)01239-7 PG 19 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA UR627 UT WOS:A1996UR62700002 ER PT J AU Dueker, M Fischer, AM AF Dueker, M Fischer, AM TI Inflation targeting in a small open economy: Empirical results for Switzerland SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE inflation targeting; exchange rate feedback; Markov switching AB This paper extends McCallum's (1987) nominal targeting rule to a small open economy by allowing for feedback from the exchange rate. Instead of setting parameters in a McCallum-type targeting rule and simulating, the parameters are estimated using a Markov switching model. We argue that a model of discrete parameter changes should be adept at capturing sudden changes in policy regime, such as changes in the degree to which monetary policy admits feedback from the exchange rate. We examine the legitimacy of an inflation targeting rule with occasional exchange-rate feedback to describe Swiss monetary policy over the past twenty years. C1 SWISS NATL BANK,ZURICH,SWITZERLAND. RP Dueker, M (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK ST LOUIS,ST LOUIS,MO 63166, USA. NR 12 TC 8 Z9 8 U1 2 U2 6 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD FEB PY 1996 VL 37 IS 1 BP 89 EP 103 DI 10.1016/0304-3932(95)01241-9 PG 15 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA UR627 UT WOS:A1996UR62700005 ER PT J AU Roberds, W Runkle, D Whiteman, CH AF Roberds, W Runkle, D Whiteman, CH TI A daily view of yield spreads and short-term interest rate movements SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID INFORMATION C1 FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN. UNIV MINNESOTA,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55455. UNIV IOWA,IOWA CITY,IA 52242. RP Roberds, W (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK ATLANTA,ATLANTA,GA, USA. NR 22 TC 19 Z9 19 U1 1 U2 1 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD FEB PY 1996 VL 28 IS 1 BP 34 EP 53 DI 10.2307/2077965 PG 20 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA TX393 UT WOS:A1996TX39300004 ER PT J AU Voith, R AF Voith, R TI Dynamics of office markets: Empirical findings and research issues - Clapp,JM SO JOURNAL OF REGIONAL SCIENCE LA English DT Book Review RP Voith, R (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK PHILADELPHIA,PHILADELPHIA,PA, USA. NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU BLACKWELL PUBLISHERS PI CAMBRIDGE PA 350 MAIN STREET, STE 6, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02148-5023 SN 0022-4146 J9 J REGIONAL SCI JI J. Reg. Sci. PD FEB PY 1996 VL 36 IS 1 BP 154 EP 156 PG 3 WC Economics; Environmental Studies; Planning & Development SC Business & Economics; Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Public Administration GA TX394 UT WOS:A1996TX39400012 ER PT J AU Bernanke, B Gertler, M Gilchrist, S AF Bernanke, B Gertler, M Gilchrist, S TI The financial accelerator and the flight to quality SO REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS LA English DT Article ID MARKET IMPERFECTIONS; INVESTMENT; CREDIT; FLUCTUATIONS; INFORMATION; CONTRACTS; LIQUIDITY AB The articles in this symposium cover some of the most active areas of research in macroeconomics. By design, each article is structured to present both a theoretical framework and empirical evidence. Through this structure, the articles synthesize recent developments, present new results, and provide guidance on avenues for further research. Earlier versions of these papers were presented at the Economic Fluctuations research meeting of the National Bureau of Economic Research on October 22 and 23, 1993. All papers were subject to the peer referee process that is standard at the Review of Economics and Statistics. The Review gratefully acknowledges the efforts of Professor Russell Cooper of Boston University and Professor Steven Durlauf of the University of Wisconsin (Madison), who volunteered their services to work as special co-editors for this symposium, with the assistance of the chair of the board of editors of the Review, James Stock. C1 NYU,NEW YORK,NY 10012. FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. RP Bernanke, B (reprint author), PRINCETON UNIV,PRINCETON,NJ 08544, USA. NR 75 TC 350 Z9 359 U1 6 U2 36 PU MIT PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA 55 HAYWARD ST JOURNALS DEPT, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 SN 0034-6535 J9 REV ECON STAT JI Rev. Econ. Stat. PD FEB PY 1996 VL 78 IS 1 BP 1 EP 15 DI 10.2307/2109844 PG 15 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA UH158 UT WOS:A1996UH15800002 ER PT J AU Christiano, LJ Eichenbaum, M Evans, C AF Christiano, LJ Eichenbaum, M Evans, C TI The effects of monetary policy shocks: Evidence from the flow of funds SO REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS LA English DT Article ID TIME-SERIES FACTS; TRANSMISSION MECHANISM; LIQUIDITY AB This paper assesses the impact of a monetary policy shock on the U.S. economy. Our measures of contractionary monetary policy shocks are associated with (i) a fall in various monetary aggregates and a rise in the federal funds rate, (ii) declines in different measures of real activity, (iii) sharp declines in commodity prices and a delayed decline in the GDP price deflator. In addition, net funds raised by the business sector increases for roughly a year, after which it falls. Finally, we find that households do not adjust their financial assets and liabilities for several quarters after a monetary shock. C1 FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,CHICAGO,IL. FED RESERVE BANK,MINNEAPOLIS,MN. RP Christiano, LJ (reprint author), NORTHWESTERN UNIV,NBER,CHICAGO,IL 60611, USA. NR 37 TC 296 Z9 302 U1 0 U2 18 PU MIT PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA 55 HAYWARD ST JOURNALS DEPT, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 SN 0034-6535 J9 REV ECON STAT JI Rev. Econ. Stat. PD FEB PY 1996 VL 78 IS 1 BP 16 EP 34 DI 10.2307/2109845 PG 19 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA UH158 UT WOS:A1996UH15800003 ER PT J AU King, RG Watson, MW AF King, RG Watson, MW TI Money, prices, interest rates and the business cycle SO REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS LA English DT Article ID MACROECONOMIC TIME-SERIES; RATIONAL-EXPECTATIONS; STOCHASTIC TRENDS; MONETARY-POLICY; FLUCTUATIONS; OUTPUT; TRANSITORY; LIQUIDITY AB The mechanisms governing the relationship of money, prices and interest rates to the business cycle are the most studied and most disputed topics in macroeconomics. In this paper, we first document key empirical aspects of this relationship. We then ask how well three benchmark rational expectations macroeconomic models-a real business cycle model, a sticky price model and a liquidity effect model-account for these central facts. While the models have diverse successses and failures, none can account for the fact that real and nominal interest rates are ''inverted leading indicators'' of real economic activity. That is, none of the models captures the post-war U.S. business cycle fact that a high real or nominal interest rate in the current quarter predicts a low level of real economic activity two to four quarters in the future. C1 FED RESERVE BANK RICHMOND,RICHMOND,VA. PRINCETON UNIV,PRINCETON,NJ 08544. RP King, RG (reprint author), UNIV VIRGINIA,CHARLOTTESVILLE,VA 22903, USA. NR 44 TC 113 Z9 118 U1 1 U2 8 PU MIT PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA 55 HAYWARD ST JOURNALS DEPT, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 SN 0034-6535 J9 REV ECON STAT JI Rev. Econ. Stat. PD FEB PY 1996 VL 78 IS 1 BP 35 EP 53 DI 10.2307/2109846 PG 19 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA UH158 UT WOS:A1996UH15800004 ER PT J AU Miron, JA Beaulieu, JJ AF Miron, JA Beaulieu, JJ TI What have macroeconomists learned about business cycles from the study of seasonal cycles? SO REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS LA English DT Article ID PRODUCTION SMOOTHING MODEL; INDUSTRIES AB This paper argues that analysis of seasonal fluctuations can shed light on the nature of business cycle fluctuations. The fundamental reason is that in many instances identifying restrictions about seasonal fluctuations are more believable than analogous restrictions about non-seasonal fluctuations. We show that seasonal fluctuations provide good examples of preference shifts and synergistic equilibria. We also find evidence against production smoothing and in favor of unmeasured variation in labor and capital utilization. In some industries capacity constraints appear to bind. C1 NBER,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. US BUR CENSUS,WASHINGTON,DC 20233. RP Miron, JA (reprint author), BOSTON UNIV,BOSTON,MA 02215, USA. NR 28 TC 10 Z9 10 U1 1 U2 3 PU MIT PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA 55 HAYWARD ST JOURNALS DEPT, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 SN 0034-6535 J9 REV ECON STAT JI Rev. Econ. Stat. PD FEB PY 1996 VL 78 IS 1 BP 54 EP 66 DI 10.2307/2109847 PG 13 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA UH158 UT WOS:A1996UH15800005 ER PT J AU Diebold, FX Rudebusch, GD AF Diebold, FX Rudebusch, GD TI Measuring business cycles: A modern perspective SO REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS LA English DT Article ID TIME-SERIES; AGGREGATE FLUCTUATIONS; SEARCH EQUILIBRIUM; INTEREST-RATES; REGIME AB In the first half of this century, special attention was given to two features of the business cycle: the comovement of many individual economic series and the different behavior of the economy during expansions and contractions. Recent theoretical and empirical research has revived interest in each attribute separately, and we survey this work. Notable empirical contributions are dynamic factor models that have a single common macroeconomic factor and nonlinear regime-switching models of a macroeconomic aggregate. We conduct an empirical synthesis that incorporates both of these features. C1 NBER, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02138 USA. FED RESERVE BANK, SAN FRANCISCO, CA USA. RP Diebold, FX (reprint author), UNIV PENN, PHILADELPHIA, PA 19104 USA. NR 79 TC 123 Z9 129 U1 5 U2 12 PU MIT PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA 55 HAYWARD STREET, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 USA SN 0034-6535 J9 REV ECON STAT JI Rev. Econ. Stat. PD FEB PY 1996 VL 78 IS 1 BP 67 EP 77 DI 10.2307/2109848 PG 11 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA UH158 UT WOS:A1996UH15800006 ER PT B AU Gold, SD Lowenstein, R AF Gold, SD Lowenstein, R BE Ebel, RD TI Federal aid cuts, the balanced budget amendment, and block grants: Impacts on the states SO 1995 PROCEEDINGS OF THE EIGHTY-EIGHTH ANNUAL CONFERENCE ON TAXATION SE PROCEEDINGS OF THE ANNUAL CONFERENCE ON TAXATION LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT 88th Annual Conference on Taxation CY OCT 08-10, 1995 CL SAN DIEGO, CA SP Natl Tax Assoc C1 FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,NEW YORK,NY 10045. NR 0 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 0 PU NATL TAX ASSOC-TAX INST AMER PI COLUMBUS PA 5310 E MAIN ST, SUITE 104, COLUMBUS, OH 43213 J9 P A CON TAX PY 1996 BP 1 EP 9 PG 9 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA BG46J UT WOS:A1996BG46J00001 ER PT B AU Tannenwald, R Madhusudhan, RG AF Tannenwald, R Madhusudhan, RG BE Ebel, RD TI State taxation of bank income with unlimited interstate branching SO 1995 PROCEEDINGS OF THE EIGHTY-EIGHTH ANNUAL CONFERENCE ON TAXATION SE PROCEEDINGS OF THE ANNUAL CONFERENCE ON TAXATION LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT 88th Annual Conference on Taxation CY OCT 08-10, 1995 CL SAN DIEGO, CA SP Natl Tax Assoc C1 FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU NATL TAX ASSOC-TAX INST AMER PI COLUMBUS PA 5310 E MAIN ST, SUITE 104, COLUMBUS, OH 43213 J9 P A CON TAX PY 1996 BP 271 EP 276 PG 6 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA BG46J UT WOS:A1996BG46J00039 ER PT B AU Greenspan, A AF Greenspan, A GP FRBKC FRBKC TI Achieving price stability - A symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City - Jackson Hole, Wyoming August 29-31, 1996 - Opening remarks SO ACHIEVING PRICE STABILITY SE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY SYMPOSIUM SERIES LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Symposium on Achieving Price Stability CY AUG 29-31, 1996 CL JACKSON HOLE, WY SP Fed Reserve Bank Kansas City C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 0 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 0 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK KANSAS CITY PI KANSAS CITY PA 925 GRAND AVE, KANSAS CITY, MO 64198 USA J9 FED BANK KS PY 1996 BP 1 EP 5 PG 5 WC Economics; Public Administration SC Business & Economics; Public Administration GA BP27N UT WOS:000084549400002 ER PT B AU Kahn, GA AF Kahn, GA GP FRBKC FRBKC TI Achieving price stability - A symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City - Jackson Hole, Wyoming August 29-31, 1996 - Symposium Summary SO ACHIEVING PRICE STABILITY SE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY SYMPOSIUM SERIES LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Symposium on Achieving Price Stability CY AUG 29-31, 1996 CL JACKSON HOLE, WY SP Fed Reserve Bank Kansas City C1 Fed Reserve Bank Kansas City, Kansas City, MO USA. NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK KANSAS CITY PI KANSAS CITY PA 925 GRAND AVE, KANSAS CITY, MO 64198 USA J9 FED BANK KS PY 1996 BP IX EP XIX PG 11 WC Economics; Public Administration SC Business & Economics; Public Administration GA BP27N UT WOS:000084549400001 ER PT B AU Kohn, DL AF Kohn, DL GP FRBKC FRBKC TI Commentary: What operating procedures should be adopted to maintain price stability? Practical issues SO ACHIEVING PRICE STABILITY SE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF KANSAS CITY SYMPOSIUM SERIES LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Symposium on Achieving Price Stability CY AUG 29-31, 1996 CL JACKSON HOLE, WY SP Fed Reserve Bank Kansas City C1 Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Div Monetary Affairs, Washington, DC 20551 USA. NR 1 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 0 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK KANSAS CITY PI KANSAS CITY PA 925 GRAND AVE, KANSAS CITY, MO 64198 USA J9 FED BANK KS PY 1996 BP 297 EP 306 PG 10 WC Economics; Public Administration SC Business & Economics; Public Administration GA BP27N UT WOS:000084549400017 ER PT B AU Wilcox, DW AF Wilcox, DW GP AMER STAT ASSOC TI What economic question does the consumer price index answer? SO AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION - 1996 PROCEEDINGS OF THE SECTION ON GOVERNMENT STATISTICS LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Conference of the Section-on-Government-Statistics, at the Annual Meeting of the American-Statistical-Association CY AUG 04-08, 1996 CL CHICAGO, IL SP Amer Stat Assoc, Sect Govt Stat DE cost-of-living index; economic index concepts; medical care prices RP Wilcox, DW (reprint author), FED RES BOARD,STOP 71,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU AMER STATISTICAL ASSOC PI ALEXANDRIA PA 1429 DUKE ST, ALEXANDRIA, VA 22314 BN 1-883276-44-6 PY 1996 BP 64 EP 66 PG 3 WC Public Administration; Statistics & Probability SC Public Administration; Mathematics GA BJ01E UT WOS:A1996BJ01E00009 ER PT B AU Kennickell, AB AF Kennickell, AB GP AMER STAT ASSOC TI Using range techniques with CAPI in the 1995 survey of consumer finances SO AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION - 1996 PROCEEDINGS OF THE SECTION ON SURVEY RESEARCH METHODS, VOLS I AND II LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Annual Meeting of the American-Association-for-Public-Opinion-Research CY MAY 16-19, 1996 CL SALT LAKE CITY, UT SP Amer Assoc Public Opin Res DE range data; nonresponse; CAPI; imputation; ignorability RP Kennickell, AB (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,MAIL STOP 180,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU AMER STATISTICAL ASSOC PI ALEXANDRIA PA 1429 DUKE ST, ALEXANDRIA, VA 22314 BN 1-883276-50-0 PY 1996 BP 440 EP 445 PG 6 WC Statistics & Probability SC Mathematics GA BJ14F UT WOS:A1996BJ14F00066 ER PT B AU Fries, G Woodburn, RL Johnson, B AF Fries, G Woodburn, RL Johnson, B GP AMER STAT ASSOC TI Disclosure review and its implications for the 1992 survey of consumer finances SO AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION - 1996 PROCEEDINGS OF THE SECTION ON SURVEY RESEARCH METHODS, VOLS I AND II LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Annual Meeting of the American-Association-for-Public-Opinion-Research CY MAY 16-19, 1996 CL SALT LAKE CITY, UT SP Amer Assoc Public Opin Res DE confidentiality; imputation RP Fries, G (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD,MAIL STOP 180,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU AMER STATISTICAL ASSOC PI ALEXANDRIA PA 1429 DUKE ST, ALEXANDRIA, VA 22314 BN 1-883276-50-0 PY 1996 BP 859 EP 863 PG 5 WC Statistics & Probability SC Mathematics GA BJ14F UT WOS:A1996BJ14F00139 ER PT J AU Leeper, EM Sims, CA Zha, T AF Leeper, EM Sims, CA Zha, T TI What does monetary policy do? SO BROOKINGS PAPERS ON ECONOMIC ACTIVITY LA English DT Article ID TIME-SERIES; MONEY; INCOME; IDENTIFICATION C1 YALE UNIV,NEW HAVEN,CT 06520. FED RESERVE BANK ATLANTA,ATLANTA,GA. RP Leeper, EM (reprint author), INDIANA UNIV,BLOOMINGTON,IN 47405, USA. NR 33 TC 32 Z9 38 U1 2 U2 5 PU BROOKINGS INST PI WASHINGTON PA 1775 MASSACHUSETTS AVE NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20036 SN 0007-2303 J9 BROOKINGS PAP ECO AC JI Brook. Pap. Econ. Act. PY 1996 IS 2 BP 1 EP 78 PG 78 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA WE784 UT WOS:A1996WE78400002 ER PT J AU Gokhale, J Kotlikoff, LJ Sabelhaus, J AF Gokhale, J Kotlikoff, LJ Sabelhaus, J TI Understanding the postwar decline in US saving: A cohort analysis SO BROOKINGS PAPERS ON ECONOMIC ACTIVITY LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT 61st Conference of the Brookings-Panel-on-Economic-Activity CY MAR 28-29, 1996 CL WASHINGTON, D.C. SP Brookings Panel Econ Activ ID FAMILY C1 BOSTON UNIV, BOSTON, MA 02215 USA. RP FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND, CLEVELAND, OH 44114 USA. NR 21 TC 48 Z9 48 U1 0 U2 0 PU BROOKINGS INST PI WASHINGTON PA 1775 MASSACHUSETTS AVE NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20036 USA SN 0007-2303 EI 1533-4465 J9 BROOKINGS PAP ECO AC JI Brook. Pap. Econ. Act. PY 1996 IS 1 BP 315 EP 407 PG 93 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA VD702 UT WOS:A1996VD70200006 ER PT S AU Loungani, P AF Loungani, P BE Meltzer, AH Plosser, CI TI Macroeconomic effects of labor reallocation - A comment SO CARNEGIE-ROCHESTER CONFERENCE SERIES ON PUBLIC POLICY, VOL 44, JUNE 1996 SE CARNEGIE-ROCHESTER CONFERENCE SERIES ON PUBLIC POLICY LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Carnegie-Rochester Conference on Public Policy CY APR, 1995 CL UNIV ROCHESTER, NEW YORK, NY SP Carnegie Mellon Univ, Ctr Study Public Policy, Univ Rochester, Bradley Policy Res Ctr, Natl Sci Fdn HO UNIV ROCHESTER C1 FED RESERVE BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC. NR 0 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL B V PI AMSTERDAM PA SARA BURGERHARTSTRAAT 25, PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0167-2231 J9 CARN ROCH CONF SERIE PY 1996 VL 44 BP 117 EP 124 DI 10.1016/S0167-2231(96)90007-X PG 8 WC Public Administration SC Public Administration GA BG25H UT WOS:A1996BG25H00006 ER PT S AU Ahmed, S AF Ahmed, S BE Meltzer, AH Plosser, CI TI Balanced-budget rules and public deficits: Evidence from the US states - A comment SO CARNEGIE-ROCHESTER CONFERENCE SERIES ON PUBLIC POLICY, VOL. 45, DECEMBER 1996: SPECIAL VOLUME: ESSAYS IN HONOR OF CARL CHRIST SE CARNEGIE-ROCHESTER CONFERENCE SERIES ON PUBLIC POLICY LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Carnegie-Rochester Conference on Public Policy - Essays in Honor of Carl Christ CY NOV, 1995 CL PITTSBURGH, PA SP Carnegie Mellon Univ, Ctr Study Public Policy, Univ Rochester, Bradley Policy Res Ctr C1 FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL B V PI AMSTERDAM PA SARA BURGERHARTSTRAAT 25, PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0167-2231 J9 CARN ROCH CONF SERIE PY 1996 VL 45 BP 77 EP 87 DI 10.1016/S0167-2231(96)00018-8 PG 11 WC Public Administration SC Public Administration GA BH35D UT WOS:A1996BH35D00006 ER PT S AU Gokhale, J AF Gokhale, J BE Meltzer, AH Plosser, CI TI Will social security baby-boom? A comment SO CARNEGIE-ROCHESTER CONFERENCE SERIES ON PUBLIC POLICY, VOL. 45, DECEMBER 1996: SPECIAL VOLUME: ESSAYS IN HONOR OF CARL CHRIST SE CARNEGIE-ROCHESTER CONFERENCE SERIES ON PUBLIC POLICY LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Carnegie-Rochester Conference on Public Policy - Essays in Honor of Carl Christ CY NOV, 1995 CL PITTSBURGH, PA SP Carnegie Mellon Univ, Ctr Study Public Policy, Univ Rochester, Bradley Policy Res Ctr C1 FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,CLEVELAND,OH 44114. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBL B V PI AMSTERDAM PA SARA BURGERHARTSTRAAT 25, PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0167-2231 J9 CARN ROCH CONF SERIE PY 1996 VL 45 BP 123 EP 128 DI 10.1016/S0167-2231(96)00020-6 PG 6 WC Public Administration SC Public Administration GA BH35D UT WOS:A1996BH35D00008 ER PT S AU Hogarth, JM AF Hogarth, JM GP AMER COUNCIL CONSUMER INTERESTS TI The roles of education and regulation in protecting consumers: A federal reserve system case study of uninsured bank products SO CONSUMER INTERESTS ANNUAL, VOL 42 SE PROCEEDINGS : ANNUAL CONFERENCE OF THE AMERICAN COUNCIL ON CONSUMER INTERESTS LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT 42nd Annual Conference of the American-Council-on-Consumer-Interests CY MAR 27-30, 1996 CL NASHVILLE, TN SP Amer Council Consumer Interests C1 FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU AMER COUNCIL COMSUMER INTERESTS PI COLUMBIA PA 240 STANLEY HALL, UNIV MISSOURI, COLUMBIA, MO 65211 SN 0275-1356 J9 P AM C CONS PY 1996 VL 42 BP 359 EP 361 PG 3 WC Business SC Business & Economics GA BG25L UT WOS:A1996BG25L00080 ER PT B AU Triest, RK AF Triest, RK BE Aaron, H Gale, WG TI Fundamental tax reform and labor supply SO ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF FUNDAMENTAL TAX REFORM LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Economic Effects of Fundamental Tax Reform CY FEB 15-16, 1996 CL WASHINGTON, DC SP Brookings Inst, Aspen Inst, Carnegie Corp New York, Joseph A Pechman Fund C1 FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,NEW YORK,NY. NR 0 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 0 PU BROOKINGS INST PI WASHINGTON PA 1775 MASSACHUSETTS AVE NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20036 BN 0-8157-0058-X PY 1996 BP 247 EP 278 PG 32 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA BH19Y UT WOS:A1996BH19Y00007 ER PT J AU Oliner, SD AF Oliner, SD TI New evidence on the retirement and depreciation of machine tools SO ECONOMIC INQUIRY LA English DT Article AB This paper uses data from machinery dealers to estimate the retirement and depreciation patterns for a broad set conventional machine tools. According to the dealers, the average service life of these machines at the survey date was about thirty years. Service lives were even longer in the mid-1970s, with the reduction over time likely caused by the diffusion of superior computer controlled machines. Consistent with the relatively long average life, the conventional machines have depreciated slowly. I use the results to assess the average service life assumed by the Bureau of Economic Analysis to construct capital stocks for metalworking machinery. RP Oliner, SD (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 11 TC 10 Z9 10 U1 0 U2 2 PU WESTERN ECONOMIC ASSOC INT PI HUNTINGTON BEACH PA 7400 CENTER AVE SUITE 109, HUNTINGTON BEACH, CA 92647-3039 SN 0095-2583 J9 ECON INQ JI Econ. Inq. PD JAN PY 1996 VL 34 IS 1 BP 57 EP 77 PG 21 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA TP552 UT WOS:A1996TP55200005 ER PT J AU Bencivenga, VR Smith, BD Starr, RM AF Bencivenga, VR Smith, BD Starr, RM TI Liquidity of secondary capital markets: Allocative efficiency and the maturity composition of the capital stock SO ECONOMIC THEORY LA English DT Article ID FINANCIAL REPRESSION; INTEREST-RATES; SOUTH-KOREA; POLICIES; GROWTH AB We investigate the function of liquid financial markets for the allocation of productive capital. We consider an economy where agents endogenously choose among capital production technologies with differing gestation periods. Long-gestation capital investments must be ''rolled-over'' in secondary capital markets. The use of such investment technologies therefore requires the support of liquid financial markets. We investigate how changes in the liquidity of these markets (i.e., in the costs of transacting) affect (a) the choice of capital production technology, (b) per capita income and the per capita capital stock, (c) the level of financial market activity, (d) the real return on savings and (e) welfare in a steady state equilibrium. Improvements in financial market liquidity raise rates of return on savings, and favor the increased use of long gestation capital investments. However, such improvements may or may not lead to higher levels of real activity or steady state welfare. We describe conditions under which various outcomes occur. C1 CORNELL UNIV,DEPT ECON,ITHACA,NY 14853. FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55480. UNIV CALIF SAN DIEGO,DEPT ECON,LA JOLLA,CA 92093. NR 32 TC 11 Z9 12 U1 3 U2 4 PU SPRINGER VERLAG PI NEW YORK PA 175 FIFTH AVE, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0938-2259 J9 ECON THEORY JI Econ. Theory PD JAN PY 1996 VL 7 IS 1 BP 19 EP 50 DI 10.1007/BF01212180 PG 32 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA TN486 UT WOS:A1996TN48600002 ER PT J AU Hassett, KA Metcalf, GE AF Hassett, KA Metcalf, GE TI Can irreversibility explain the slow diffusion of energy saving technologies? SO ENERGY POLICY LA English DT Article C1 TUFTS UNIV,MEDFORD,MA 02155. RP Hassett, KA (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC, USA. NR 4 TC 7 Z9 7 U1 0 U2 0 PU BUTTERWORTH-HEINEMANN LTD PI OXFORD PA THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD, OXON, ENGLAND OX5 1GB SN 0301-4215 J9 ENERG POLICY JI Energy Policy PD JAN PY 1996 VL 24 IS 1 BP 7 EP 8 DI 10.1016/0301-4215(95)00150-6 PG 2 WC Energy & Fuels; Environmental Sciences; Environmental Studies SC Energy & Fuels; Environmental Sciences & Ecology GA TV901 UT WOS:A1996TV90100002 ER PT B AU Neal, R Reiffen, D AF Neal, R Reiffen, D BE Lo, AW TI The effect of integration between broker-dealers and specialists SO INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATION AND REGULATION OF THE SECURITIES INDUSTRY SE NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH CONFERENCE REPORT LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Conference on the Industrial Organization and Regulation of the Securities Industry CY JAN 20-22, 1994 CL KEY LARGO, FL SP Natl Bur Econ Res C1 FED RESERVE BANK,KANSAS CITY,MO. NR 0 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 0 PU UNIV CHICAGO PRESS PI CHICAGO PA 5801 S ELLIS AVE, CHICAGO, IL 60637 BN 0-226-48847-0 J9 NBER CONF R PY 1996 BP 177 EP 206 PG 30 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA BF65T UT WOS:A1996BF65T00007 ER PT J AU Fallick, BC Hassett, KA AF Fallick, BC Hassett, KA TI Unionization and acquisitions SO JOURNAL OF BUSINESS LA English DT Article ID LEVERAGED BUYOUTS AB This article explores the question of whether unionization influences the decision of a firm to merge with another firm. We combine merger data, taken from COMPUSTAT, with firm-specific union data obtained from several sources. An econometric matching model allows us to isolate the effects of unionization on the probability that the firms studied will be involved in a merger. We find that unionization increases the likelihood that a firm will enter the acquisition market and that firms with similar union statuses tend to merge with one another. RP Fallick, BC (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC, USA. NR 32 TC 5 Z9 5 U1 1 U2 2 PU UNIV CHICAGO PRESS PI CHICAGO PA 5720 S WOODLAWN AVE, CHICAGO, IL 60637 SN 0021-9398 J9 J BUS JI J. Bus. PD JAN PY 1996 VL 69 IS 1 BP 51 EP 73 DI 10.1086/209679 PG 23 WC Business SC Business & Economics GA TU444 UT WOS:A1996TU44400004 ER PT J AU Campos, J Ericsson, NR Hendry, DF AF Campos, J Ericsson, NR Hendry, DF TI Cointegration tests in the presence of structural breaks SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMETRICS LA English DT Article DE cointegration; error correction; Monte Carlo; structural breaks; tests ID AUTOREGRESSIVE TIME-SERIES; UNIT-ROOT; CONSUMERS EXPENDITURE; ASYMPTOTIC THEORY; SINGLE-EQUATION; REGRESSION; HYPOTHESIS; INFERENCE; MODELS; DEMAND AB Structural breaks in stationary time series can induce apparent unit roots in those series. Thus, using recently developed recursive Monte Carlo techniques, this paper investigates the properties of several cointegration tests when the marginal process of one of the variables in the cointegrating relationship is stationary with a structural break. The break has little effect on the tests' size. However, tests based on estimated error correction models generally are more powerful than Engle and Granger's two-step procedure employing the Dickey-Fuller unit root test. Discrepancies in power arise when the data generation process does not have a common factor. C1 FED RESERVE BOARD,INT FINANCE DIV,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. UNIV SALAMANCA,DEPT ECON & HIST ECON,E-37008 SALAMANCA,SPAIN. UNIV OXFORD NUFFIELD COLL,OXFORD OX1 1NF,ENGLAND. NR 54 TC 58 Z9 63 U1 1 U2 3 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA LAUSANNE PI LAUSANNE 1 PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE 1, SWITZERLAND SN 0304-4076 J9 J ECONOMETRICS JI J. Econom. PD JAN PY 1996 VL 70 IS 1 BP 187 EP 220 DI 10.1016/0304-4076(94)01689-5 PG 34 WC Economics; Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA TQ083 UT WOS:A1996TQ08300009 ER PT J AU Oliner, SD Rudebusch, GD Sichel, D AF Oliner, SD Rudebusch, GD Sichel, D TI The Lucas critique revisited - Assessing the stability of empirical Euler equations for investment SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMETRICS LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT CRDE/Journal-of-Econometrics Workshop on Recent Developments in the Econometrics of Structural Change CY OCT 02-03, 1992 CL MONTREAL, CANADA SP CRDE, J Econometr DE Lucas critique; Euler equation; business investment ID RATIONAL-EXPECTATIONS MODELS; GENERALIZED-METHOD; REGRESSION RELATIONSHIPS; STRUCTURAL-CHANGE; HYPOTHESIS; CONSUMPTION; TESTS; TIME AB Lucas (1976) argued that the parameters of traditional macroeconometric models depended crucially on agents' expectations and were unlikely to remain stable in a changing economic environment, In response, econometric modeling has focused on the estimation of rational expectations models that have an explicit structural interpretation - Euler equations in particular, Thus, a natural, though little acknowledged, criterion for judging the success of empirical Euler equations is the stability of their 'deep', structural parameters, Examining split-sample tests over multiple breakpoints as well as the sequence of subsample model estimates, we find considerable instability in the estimated parameters of a standard Euler equation of investment. C1 FED RESERVE BANK SAN FRANCISCO, SAN FRANCISCO, CA 94105 USA. BROOKINGS INST, WASHINGTON, DC 20036 USA. RP Oliner, SD (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD, WASHINGTON, DC 20551 USA. NR 52 TC 15 Z9 15 U1 1 U2 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA PI LAUSANNE PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE, SWITZERLAND SN 0304-4076 EI 1872-6895 J9 J ECONOMETRICS JI J. Econom. PD JAN PY 1996 VL 70 IS 1 BP 291 EP 316 DI 10.1016/0304-4076(94)01693-3 PG 26 WC Economics; Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA TQ083 UT WOS:A1996TQ08300013 ER PT J AU McGrattan, ER AF McGrattan, ER TI Solving the stochastic growth model with a finite element method SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS & CONTROL LA English DT Article DE finite element method; growth model AB Since it is the dominant paradigm of the business cycle and growth literatures, the stochastic growth model has been used to test the performance of alternative numerical methods, In this paper I apply the finite element method to this model. I show that the method is easy to apply and that, for examples such as the stochastic growth model, it gives accurate solutions within a second or two on a desktop computer. I also show how inequality constraints can be handled by redefining the optimization problem with penalty functions. RP McGrattan, ER (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,RES DEPT,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55480, USA. NR 15 TC 25 Z9 25 U1 0 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0165-1889 J9 J ECON DYN CONTROL JI J. Econ. Dyn. Control PD JAN-MAR PY 1996 VL 20 IS 1-3 BP 19 EP 42 DI 10.1016/0165-1889(94)00842-0 PG 24 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA TK075 UT WOS:A1996TK07500002 ER PT J AU Orphanides, A AF Orphanides, A TI The timing of stabilizations SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS & CONTROL LA English DT Article DE inflation; stabilization; credibility AB A unified framework is developed for examining stabilization from high inflation in a stochastic environment. Optimality conditions for the delay in the adoption of a stabilization program and its possible abandonment are derived and analyzed. The anticipation of external aid is shown to reinforce delay in the implementation of a stabilization. Also, conditionality agreements become necessary to ensure that the administration of external aid will increase the probability of success of the program. The presence of speculative activity reinforces delay in the implementation of stabilizations and is found to necessitate otherwise unnecessary frontloading of adjustment. RP Orphanides, A (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 22 TC 7 Z9 8 U1 0 U2 0 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0165-1889 J9 J ECON DYN CONTROL JI J. Econ. Dyn. Control PD JAN-MAR PY 1996 VL 20 IS 1-3 BP 257 EP 279 DI 10.1016/0165-1889(94)00851-1 PG 23 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA TK075 UT WOS:A1996TK07500011 ER PT J AU Kwan, SH AF Kwan, SH TI Firm-specific information and the correlation between individual stocks and bonds SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE stock-bond relationship; lead-lag relationship; firm-specific information; market efficiency ID RETURNS; FUTURES; MARKETS; INDEX AB This paper examines the correlation between the returns on individual stocks and the yield changes of individual bonds issued by the same firm, and finds that they are negatively and contemporaneously correlated. This suggests that individual stocks and bonds are driven by firm-specific information that is predominantly related to the mean, rather than the variance, of the firm's underlying assets. Furthermore, I find that lagged stock returns have explanatory power for current bond yield changes, while current stock returns are unrelated to lagged bond yield changes. This shows that stocks lead bonds in reflecting firm-specific information. RP Kwan, SH (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK,ECON RES DEPT,SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94105, USA. NR 22 TC 78 Z9 79 U1 2 U2 8 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA LAUSANNE PI LAUSANNE 1 PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE 1, SWITZERLAND SN 0304-405X J9 J FINANC ECON JI J. Financ. Econ. PD JAN PY 1996 VL 40 IS 1 BP 63 EP 80 DI 10.1016/0304-405X(95)00836-4 PG 18 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA TQ559 UT WOS:A1996TQ55900004 ER PT J AU Holmes, TJ Schmitz, JA AF Holmes, TJ Schmitz, JA TI Managerial tenure, business age, and small business turnover SO JOURNAL OF LABOR ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID JOB SENIORITY; WAGES RISE; ENTREPRENEURSHIP; GROWTH AB This article explores a Census Bureau survey of the small business sector, the 1982 Characteristics of Business Owners survey, which contains information on both small businesses and the managers running them. A number of patterns are documented. For example, among small businesses of the same age, the probability that a business fails and the probability that a business is sold are both initially decreasing in the tenure of the manager at the business. Among businesses with managers who have the same tenure at their business, the probability that a business fails is decreasing in the age of the business. RP Holmes, TJ (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK,MINNEAPOLIS,MN, USA. NR 25 TC 24 Z9 25 U1 0 U2 3 PU UNIV CHICAGO PRESS PI CHICAGO PA 5720 S WOODLAWN AVE, CHICAGO, IL 60637 SN 0734-306X J9 J LABOR ECON JI J. Labor Econ. PD JAN PY 1996 VL 14 IS 1 BP 79 EP 99 DI 10.1086/209804 PG 21 WC Economics; Industrial Relations & Labor SC Business & Economics GA TU651 UT WOS:A1996TU65100004 ER PT B AU English, M Hogarth, JM AF English, M Hogarth, JM BE Hill, RP Taylor, CR TI There's got to be a better way: New ways of protecting consumers SO MARKETING AND PUBLIC POLICY CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS SE AMERICAN MARKETING ASSOCIATION CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT 1996 Marketing and Public Policy Conference CY MAY 17-18, 1996 CL ARLINGTON, VA SP Amer Mkt Assoc, Mkt & Soc SIG, Mkt Sci Inst, J Public Policy & Mkt AB Using a case study approach and data from the Surveys of Consumers, this paper explores the issues raised when consumer protection is afforded through education rather than regulation. There is some optimal combination of voluntary self-regulation, agency regulation, and consumer education which can be brought to bear on consumer protection issues. C1 FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. NR 0 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 0 PU AMER MARKETING ASSOC PI CHICAGO PA 250 SOUTH WACKER DRIVE, CHICAGO, IL 60606 BN 0-87757-260-7 J9 AMA CONF P PY 1996 VL 6 BP 40 EP 47 PG 8 WC Business; Public Administration SC Business & Economics; Public Administration GA BJ86R UT WOS:A1996BJ86R00021 ER PT B AU Dueker, MJ Fischer, AM AF Dueker, MJ Fischer, AM BE Alders, K Koedijk, K Kool, C Winder, C TI Do inflation targets redefine central bank inflation preferences? Results from an indicator model SO MONETARY POLICY IN A CONVERGING EUROPE SE FINANCIAL AND MONETARY POLICY STUDIES LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT International Workshop on Monetary Policy in a Converging Europe CY FEB, 1995 CL AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SP De Nederlandsche Bank NV, Univ Limburg, Limburg Inst Financial Econ AB This paper examines whether inflation targets have been instrumental in reducing the policy-implied, short-term trend rate of inflation, which is defined as the baseline inflation rate. To investigate whether announced targets have generated distinct benefits in terms of reductions in the baseline inflation rate to date, the authors compare the baseline inflation rates in three inflation-targeting countries with those in neighboring non-inflation-targeting countries. The study matches New Zealand with Australia; Canada with the United States; and the United Kingdom with Germany. The comparative analysis stemming from an indicator model using a Markov-switching process suggests that inflation targets have brought about a change in inflation preferences in the 1990s. This statement needs to be qualified however, because the inflation-targeting countries generally followed a non-inflation-target ing neighbor in reducing their baseline inflation rates. The United States and Germany shifted to a low baseline path prior to similar shifts by their inflation-targeting neighbors. Given that the neighboring countries moved first and appear to have settled on a lower baseline inflation rate, it is difficult to determine how instrumental the targets were in bringing about the shift in preferences. C1 FED RESERVE BANK ST LOUIS,ST LOUIS,FRANCE. NR 0 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 1 U2 1 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS BN 0-7923-3746-8 J9 FINAN MON P PY 1996 VL 31 BP 21 EP 37 PG 3 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA BH30S UT WOS:A1996BH30S00002 ER PT B AU Jordan, JL AF Jordan, JL BE Dorn, JA SalinasLeon, R TI Economic forces versus monetary institutions SO MONEY AND MARKETS IN THE AMERICAS: NEW CHALLENGES FOR HEMISPHERIC INTEGRATION SE STUDIES ON THE ECONOMIC FUTURE OF THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Cato-Institute Annual Monetary Conference on Monetary Arrangements in the Americas after NAFTA CY MAY, 1994 CL MEXICO CITY, MEXICO SP Cato Inst, Fraser Inst, Ctr Investigac Sobre Libre Empresa C1 FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,CLEVELAND,OH 44114. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU FRASER INST PI VANCOUVER PA 626 BUTE ST, VANCOUVER BC V6E 3M1, CANADA BN 0-88975-155-2 J9 ST ECON FUT W HEM PY 1996 BP 33 EP 45 PG 13 WC Planning & Development SC Public Administration GA BG93C UT WOS:A1996BG93C00003 ER PT B AU Lindsey, LB AF Lindsey, LB BE Dorn, JA SalinasLeon, R TI The future of the dollar as an international currency SO MONEY AND MARKETS IN THE AMERICAS: NEW CHALLENGES FOR HEMISPHERIC INTEGRATION SE STUDIES ON THE ECONOMIC FUTURE OF THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Cato-Institute Annual Monetary Conference on Monetary Arrangements in the Americas after NAFTA CY MAY, 1994 CL MEXICO CITY, MEXICO SP Cato Inst, Fraser Inst, Ctr Investigac Sobre Libre Empresa C1 US FED RESERVE BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU FRASER INST PI VANCOUVER PA 626 BUTE ST, VANCOUVER BC V6E 3M1, CANADA BN 0-88975-155-2 J9 ST ECON FUT W HEM PY 1996 BP 305 EP 312 PG 8 WC Planning & Development SC Public Administration GA BG93C UT WOS:A1996BG93C00017 ER PT J AU Little, JS AF Little, JS TI US regional trade with Canada during the transition to free trade SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article AB This article examines the U.S. and Canadian responses to the early years of the U.S.-Canada Free Trade Agreement from a U.S. regional perspective. It draws on a highly detailed data base from Statistics Canada. Although the article discusses which regions enjoyed the fastest growth in trade with Canada over this period, and why, the major focus of the study is the impact of increased integration on the nature of trade and investment flows between the two countries. The author explores, for example, whether trade has expanded on the basis of comparative resource endowments or has taken the form of increased intra-industry trade, two-way trade in similar products, which largely reflects economies of large-scale production and specialization. The author finds that, to date, U.S. and Canadian firms are emphasizing trade rather than direct investment as a means of serving the integrating market. However, the results concerning the foundations for this trade expansion are mixed. At the national level, trade has grown on the basis of comparative advantage, and the share of two-way trade is little changed. However, national data conceal a variety of regional experiences: The share of two-way trade has grown in over half the regions, and changes in the industrial composition of trade are greater within regions than the national data would suggest. Contrary to conventional wisdom, moreover, structural change was greatest where two-way trade grew most. Thus, the author ends by suggesting that the nature of the intra-firm-rather than the intra-industry-response may be the key to determining how smoothly economies adjust to increased integration. RP Little, JS (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02210, USA. NR 16 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 2 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD JAN-FEB PY 1996 BP 3 EP & PG 20 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA TZ008 UT WOS:A1996TZ00800001 ER PT J AU Tannenwald, R AF Tannenwald, R TI State business tax climate: How should it be measured and how important is it? SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID LOCATION AB States are more concerned than ever before about their business tax climate. Over the past two decades, profound technological and political changes have enhanced employers' geographic mobility and extended their geographic range, thereby intensifying economic competition both within the United States and throughout the world. This study ranks the business tax climate of 22 states, including the six within New England. It finds only modest differences in business tax climate among most states. Within the region, New Hampshire and Massachusetts have the most attractive business tax climates. The study also estimates the importance of business tax climate in determining where manufacturers invest in plant and equipment. Business tax climate exerts only a small, highly uncertain effect on such investment. States may be more likely to stimulate their economy by enhancing public services valued by business. RP Tannenwald, R (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02210, USA. NR 32 TC 18 Z9 18 U1 0 U2 4 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD JAN-FEB PY 1996 BP 23 EP & PG 17 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA TZ008 UT WOS:A1996TZ00800002 ER PT J AU Tevlin, S AF Tevlin, S TI CEO incentive contracts, monitoring costs, and corporate performance SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID EMPIRICAL-ANALYSIS; COMPENSATION; TURNOVER; FIRMS; BEHAVIOR AB The after-tax real wage of the average worker in the United States has fallen 13 percent in the last 20 years, while the average chief executive officer has received a pay raise of over 300 percent. This glaring contrast has sparked a flood of papers analyzing CEO compensation contracts. One of the main justifications for the extraordinary pay of top CEOs is that they receive contracts that link CEO compensation to the performance of the firm. The empirical literature, however, has found little evidence that CEO contracts provide such incentives. The compensation of CEOs appears to respond very Little to the performance of their firms. This article addresses three reasons why the previous literature may have been underestimating the response of compensation to firm performance. First, only firms where monitoring the CEO is costly should have CEO compensation that is performance-sensitive. Restricting the sample to these firms yields a 67 percent increase in the performance sensitivity of compensation contracts. Second, the parameter that measures the performance sensitivity of CEO pay is negatively correlated to performance, causing it to be underestimated in standard regressions. Finally, econometricians do not observe exactly what compensation boards use as performance measures. Correcting this error shows that the elasticity of CEO pay with respect to firm performance is 10 times higher than previously believed. C1 FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02210. RP Tevlin, S (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,DIV MONETARY AFFAIRS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 40 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 6 U2 7 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD JAN-FEB PY 1996 BP 39 EP & PG 13 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA TZ008 UT WOS:A1996TZ00800003 ER PT J AU Aschheim, J Christou, C Swamy, PAVB Tavlas, GS AF Aschheim, J Christou, C Swamy, PAVB Tavlas, GS TI A random coefficient model of speculative attacks: The case of the Mexican peso SO OPEN ECONOMIES REVIEW LA English DT Article DE random coefficient models; forecasting; speculative attacks ID PAYMENTS CRISES; DEVALUATION; BALANCE AB A considerable body of theoretical and empirical literature has developed seeking to explain the timing, magnitude, and mechanics of speculative attacks against currencies. This paper extends the empirical specification of the traditional speculative attack model by developing a random coefficient (RC) model which, as we show, encompasses a variety of fixed-coefficient models as special cases. Two classes of models (fixed- and random-coefficient models) are estimated for the case of Mexican peso over the period January 1988 to Novemeber 1994, while forecasts of the peso/U.S, dollar exchange rate are generated for the period December 1994 through December 1995. The comparison of forecast errors generated by five model specifications indicates that forecasts based on the RC procedures are superior to those based on the fixed-coefficient estimation. It is also shown that there are good theoretical reasons why the RC procedure performs better in prediction than the fixed-coefficient procedure. C1 INT MONETARY FUND,WASHINGTON,DC 20431. BANK GREECE,ATHENS,GREECE. FED RESERVE BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC. US DEPT TREASURY,OFF COMPTROLLER CURRENCY,WASHINGTON,DC 20226. RP Aschheim, J (reprint author), GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIV,WASHINGTON,DC 20052, USA. NR 19 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0923-7992 J9 OPEN ECON REV JI Open Econ. Rev. PY 1996 VL 7 SU 1 BP 553 EP 571 DI 10.1007/BF01886213 PG 19 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA WG906 UT WOS:A1996WG90600008 ER PT B AU Siregar, RY AF Siregar, RY BE Hooley, R Nasution, A Pangestu, M Dutta, M TI The NATREX approach to analyze the real exchange rate movements: The case of Indonesia SO RESEARCH IN ASIAN ECONOMIC STUDIES, VOL 7, PTS A AND B, 1996: ASIA-PACIFIC ECONOMIC COOPERATION: THEORY AND PRACTICE SE RESEARCH IN ASIAN ECONOMIC STUDIES LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT 2nd Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit CY 1994 CL JAKARTA, INDONESIA C1 FED RESERVE BANK,SAN FRANCISCO,CA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU JAI PRESS INC PI GREENWICH PA 55 OLD POST ROAD, NO 2, GREENWICH, CT 06836 BN 0-7623-0119-8 J9 RES ASIA ES PY 1996 VL 7 BP 297 EP 321 PN A&B PG 25 WC Area Studies; Economics SC Area Studies; Business & Economics GA BG66H UT WOS:A1996BG66H00022 ER PT J AU Allen, B AF Allen, B TI A remark on a social choice problem SO SOCIAL CHOICE AND WELFARE LA English DT Article ID CONTINUOUS REPRESENTATION; PREFERENCES; TOPOLOGY AB If preferences are continuous monotone complete preorders, then there is a continuous social choice aggregation rule which respects unanimity and is anonymous. The simple proof of this result involves a straightforward application of well-known properties of the closed convergence topology. C1 FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55401. RP Allen, B (reprint author), UNIV MINNESOTA,DEPT ECON,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55401, USA. NR 17 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 0 U2 3 PU SPRINGER VERLAG PI NEW YORK PA 175 FIFTH AVE, NEW YORK, NY 10010 SN 0176-1714 J9 SOC CHOICE WELFARE JI Soc Choice Welf. PD JAN PY 1996 VL 13 IS 1 BP 11 EP 16 DI 10.1007/BF00179094 PG 6 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA TM395 UT WOS:A1996TM39500002 ER PT S AU McDonough, WJ AF McDonough, WJ BE Raymond, SU TI Keynote address: Reaping the benefits of new technology SO TECHNOLOGY LINK TO ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: PAST LESSONS AND FUTURE IMPERATIVES SE ANNALS OF THE NEW YORK ACADEMY OF SCIENCES LA English DT Editorial Material CT Conference on Technology and Economic Development in the Tri-State Region CY NOV 08-09, 1995 CL NEW YORK, NY SP New York Acad Sci, Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York City Partnership, Port Authority New York, Port Authority New Jersey, Reg Plan Assoc, US Bur Labor Stat, New York Reg RP McDonough, WJ (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,33 LIBERTY ST,NEW YORK,NY 10045, USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 1 PU NEW YORK ACAD SCIENCES PI NEW YORK PA 2 EAST 63RD ST, NEW YORK, NY 10021 SN 0077-8923 BN 1-57331-042-5 J9 ANN NY ACAD SCI JI Ann.NY Acad.Sci. PY 1996 VL 787 BP 7 EP 11 DI 10.1111/j.1749-6632.1996.tb44841.x PG 5 WC Multidisciplinary Sciences; Planning & Development SC Science & Technology - Other Topics; Public Administration GA BF87M UT WOS:A1996BF87M00001 ER PT S AU Lowenstein, R Pham, H AF Lowenstein, R Pham, H BE Raymond, SU TI High-technology industries in the tri-state region: An empirical overview SO TECHNOLOGY LINK TO ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: PAST LESSONS AND FUTURE IMPERATIVES SE ANNALS OF THE NEW YORK ACADEMY OF SCIENCES LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Technology and Economic Development in the Tri-State Region CY NOV 08-09, 1995 CL NEW YORK, NY SP New York Acad Sci, Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York City Partnership, Port Authority New York, Port Authority New Jersey, Reg Plan Assoc, US Bur Labor Stat, New York Reg RP Lowenstein, R (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,33 LIBERTY ST,NEW YORK,NY 10045, USA. NR 6 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU NEW YORK ACAD SCIENCES PI NEW YORK PA 2 EAST 63RD ST, NEW YORK, NY 10021 SN 0077-8923 BN 1-57331-042-5 J9 ANN NY ACAD SCI JI Ann.NY Acad.Sci. PY 1996 VL 787 BP 143 EP 151 DI 10.1111/j.1749-6632.1996.tb44853.x PG 9 WC Multidisciplinary Sciences; Planning & Development SC Science & Technology - Other Topics; Public Administration GA BF87M UT WOS:A1996BF87M00013 ER PT S AU Rosen, RD AF Rosen, RD BE Raymond, SU TI What can academics tell us about regional growth? A look at five recent studies SO TECHNOLOGY LINK TO ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: PAST LESSONS AND FUTURE IMPERATIVES SE ANNALS OF THE NEW YORK ACADEMY OF SCIENCES LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Technology and Economic Development in the Tri-State Region CY NOV 08-09, 1995 CL NEW YORK, NY SP New York Acad Sci, Fed Reserve Bank New York, New York City Partnership, Port Authority New York, Port Authority New Jersey, Reg Plan Assoc, US Bur Labor Stat, New York Reg RP Rosen, RD (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,33 LIBERTY ST,NEW YORK,NY 10045, USA. NR 9 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU NEW YORK ACAD SCIENCES PI NEW YORK PA 2 EAST 63RD ST, NEW YORK, NY 10021 SN 0077-8923 BN 1-57331-042-5 J9 ANN NY ACAD SCI JI Ann.NY Acad.Sci. PY 1996 VL 787 BP 152 EP 163 DI 10.1111/j.1749-6632.1996.tb44854.x PG 12 WC Multidisciplinary Sciences; Planning & Development SC Science & Technology - Other Topics; Public Administration GA BF87M UT WOS:A1996BF87M00014 ER PT B AU Berlin, M AF Berlin, M BE Saunders, A Walter, I TI Competitive interpenetration: The banking and securities industries - Comments SO UNIVERSAL BANKING: FINANCIAL SYSTEM DESIGN RECONSIDERED LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Universal Banking - Financial System Design Reconsidered CY FEB 23-24, 1995 CL NEW YORK, NY SP New York Univ Salomon Ctr C1 FED RESERVE BANK PHILADELPHIA,RES DEPT,PHILADELPHIA,PA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU IRWIN PROFESSIONAL PUBLISHING PI BURR RIDGE PA 1333 BURR RIDGE PKWY, BURR RIDGE, IL 60521 BN 0-7863-0466-9 PY 1996 BP 327 EP 329 PG 3 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA BG75X UT WOS:A1996BG75X00015 ER PT B AU Mesler, LJ AF Mesler, LJ BE Saunders, A Walter, I TI Competitive interpenetration: Banking, commerce, and nonbank activities - Comments SO UNIVERSAL BANKING: FINANCIAL SYSTEM DESIGN RECONSIDERED LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Universal Banking - Financial System Design Reconsidered CY FEB 23-24, 1995 CL NEW YORK, NY SP New York Univ Salomon Ctr C1 FED RESERVE BANK PHILADELPHIA,PHILADELPHIA,PA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU IRWIN PROFESSIONAL PUBLISHING PI BURR RIDGE PA 1333 BURR RIDGE PKWY, BURR RIDGE, IL 60521 BN 0-7863-0466-9 PY 1996 BP 543 EP 549 PG 7 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA BG75X UT WOS:A1996BG75X00025 ER PT B AU Prowse, S AF Prowse, S BE Saunders, A Walter, I TI Competitive interpenetration: Banking, commerce, and nonbank activities - Comments SO UNIVERSAL BANKING: FINANCIAL SYSTEM DESIGN RECONSIDERED LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Universal Banking - Financial System Design Reconsidered CY FEB 23-24, 1995 CL NEW YORK, NY SP New York Univ Salomon Ctr C1 FED RESERVE BANK DALLAS,DALLAS,TX. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU IRWIN PROFESSIONAL PUBLISHING PI BURR RIDGE PA 1333 BURR RIDGE PKWY, BURR RIDGE, IL 60521 BN 0-7863-0466-9 PY 1996 BP 550 EP 556 PG 7 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA BG75X UT WOS:A1996BG75X00026 ER PT B AU Berger, AN Udell, GF AF Berger, AN Udell, GF BE Saunders, A Walter, I TI Universal banking and the future of small business lending SO UNIVERSAL BANKING: FINANCIAL SYSTEM DESIGN RECONSIDERED LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Universal Banking - Financial System Design Reconsidered CY FEB 23-24, 1995 CL NEW YORK, NY SP New York Univ Salomon Ctr AB We examine the contention that as banks become larger and more organizationally complex-i.e., more like universal banks-they may reduce the supply of credit to small business borrowers. This would be consistent with an effort to reduce Williamson-type managerial diseconomies in providing services for large and small borrowers jointly. We investigate the empirical association of loan price and quantity with bank size and complexity, using a data set with over 900,000 bank loans. The data support the proposition that larger, more complex banks may reduce the supply of small business lending, although other institutions may replace many of these loans. C1 FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WHARTON FINANCIAL INST CTR,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. NR 0 TC 9 Z9 10 U1 1 U2 3 PU IRWIN PROFESSIONAL PUBLISHING PI BURR RIDGE PA 1333 BURR RIDGE PKWY, BURR RIDGE, IL 60521 BN 0-7863-0466-9 PY 1996 BP 558 EP 627 PG 70 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA BG75X UT WOS:A1996BG75X00027 ER PT B AU Peek, J Rosengren, ES AF Peek, J Rosengren, ES BE Saunders, A Walter, I TI Small business credit availability: How important is size of lender? SO UNIVERSAL BANKING: FINANCIAL SYSTEM DESIGN RECONSIDERED LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Universal Banking - Financial System Design Reconsidered CY FEB 23-24, 1995 CL NEW YORK, NY SP New York Univ Salomon Ctr AB The recent relaxation of restrictions on interstate banking and branching, as well as the likely relaxation of Glass-Steagall restrictions, should encourage significant consolidation in the banking industry. Larger lenders, diversified across regions and products, will undoubtedly be less susceptible to adverse economic shocks that have buffeted the banking industry over the past decade. However, as small banks with a small business loan emphasis are absorbed into larger, more diversified lenders, which tend to focus much less on small business lending, credit availability to bank-dependent small business borrowers should be a major public policy concern. In New England, the evidence indicates that many large acquirers have chosen not to maintain the small business loan portfolios of their smaller target banks. This reduction in small business lending as a result of acquisitions indicates that many banks have little interest in maintaining the historical lending relationships fostered by the small target banks. As consolidation reduces the number of small banks that focus on small business loans, some niches will be created that can be served by de novo entry, although the evidence suggests that de novo entry is unlikely quickly to fill any major voids in small business lending. C1 FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON COLL,BOSTON,MA 02210. NR 0 TC 8 Z9 9 U1 0 U2 3 PU IRWIN PROFESSIONAL PUBLISHING PI BURR RIDGE PA 1333 BURR RIDGE PKWY, BURR RIDGE, IL 60521 BN 0-7863-0466-9 PY 1996 BP 628 EP 655 PG 28 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA BG75X UT WOS:A1996BG75X00028 ER PT B AU Bennett, P AF Bennett, P BE Saunders, A Walter, I TI Information asymmetries, speed, and risk concentrations SO UNIVERSAL BANKING: FINANCIAL SYSTEM DESIGN RECONSIDERED LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Universal Banking - Financial System Design Reconsidered CY FEB 23-24, 1995 CL NEW YORK, NY SP New York Univ Salomon Ctr C1 FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,RES & MARKET ANAL GRP,NEW YORK,NY 10045. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU IRWIN PROFESSIONAL PUBLISHING PI BURR RIDGE PA 1333 BURR RIDGE PKWY, BURR RIDGE, IL 60521 BN 0-7863-0466-9 PY 1996 BP 661 EP 670 PG 10 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA BG75X UT WOS:A1996BG75X00030 ER PT B AU Kwast, ML AF Kwast, ML BE Saunders, A Walter, I TI Supervising the universal bank SO UNIVERSAL BANKING: FINANCIAL SYSTEM DESIGN RECONSIDERED LA English DT Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Universal Banking - Financial System Design Reconsidered CY FEB 23-24, 1995 CL NEW YORK, NY SP New York Univ Salomon Ctr C1 FED RESERVE BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC. NR 0 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 0 PU IRWIN PROFESSIONAL PUBLISHING PI BURR RIDGE PA 1333 BURR RIDGE PKWY, BURR RIDGE, IL 60521 BN 0-7863-0466-9 PY 1996 BP 743 EP 749 PG 7 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA BG75X UT WOS:A1996BG75X00037 ER PT J AU Madrigal, V Smith, SD AF Madrigal, V Smith, SD TI On fully revealing prices when markets are incomplete SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID RATIONAL-EXPECTATIONS EQUILIBRIUM; GENERIC EXISTENCE; ASSET RETURNS; INFORMATION; PREFERENCES; VALUATION; STREAMS; INCOME AB We investigate the structure of preferences and uncertainty that guarantees that prices are fully revealing even though asset markers are incomplete and there are more sources of uncertainty than assets in the economy. A sufficient condition for fully revealing prices is that investors have preferences of the (possibly state-dependent) linear-risk-tolerance class. Finally, we discuss how our result allows one to extend certain existing literature on demand aggregation, welfare analysis, and the pricing of contingent claims to the case in which markets are incomplete and investors have asymmetric private information. C1 GEORGIA STATE UNIV, COLL BUSINESS, ATLANTA, GA 30303 USA. FED RESERVE BANK ATLANTA, ATLANTA, GA USA. RP NYU, STERN SCH BUSINESS, 44 W 4TH ST, NEW YORK, NY 10012 USA. NR 28 TC 3 Z9 4 U1 1 U2 5 PU AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY, STE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 USA SN 0002-8282 EI 1944-7981 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD DEC PY 1995 VL 85 IS 5 BP 1152 EP 1159 PG 8 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA TP406 UT WOS:A1995TP40600008 ER PT J AU Calem, PS Mester, LJ AF Calem, PS Mester, LJ TI Consumer behavior and the stickiness of credit-card interest rates SO AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID SWITCHING COSTS; COMPETITION; MARKET C1 FED RESERVE BANK PHILADELPHIA,RES DEPT,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19106. UNIV PENN,WHARTON SCH,DEPT FINANCE,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19104. RP Calem, PS (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,DIV RES & STAT,MAIL STOP 149,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 18 TC 87 Z9 87 U1 3 U2 12 PU AMER ECON ASSN PI NASHVILLE PA 2014 BROADWAY SUITE 305, NASHVILLE, TN 37203 SN 0002-8282 J9 AM ECON REV JI Am. Econ. Rev. PD DEC PY 1995 VL 85 IS 5 BP 1327 EP 1336 PG 10 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA TP406 UT WOS:A1995TP40600020 ER PT J AU Drabenstott, M AF Drabenstott, M TI Rural development: Implications of structural change for policies and institutions: Discussion SO AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Editorial Material RP Drabenstott, M (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK KANSAS CITY,KANSAS CITY,MO 64198, USA. NR 3 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 1 PU AMER AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS ASSOC PI AMES PA 1110 BUCKEYE AVE, AMES, IA 50010-8063 SN 0002-9092 J9 AM J AGR ECON JI Am. J. Agr. Econ. PD DEC PY 1995 VL 77 IS 5 BP 1271 EP 1273 DI 10.2307/1243360 PG 3 WC Agricultural Economics & Policy; Economics SC Agriculture; Business & Economics GA UA027 UT WOS:A1995UA02700034 ER PT J AU Duncan, M Drabenstott, M Graham, J Swackhamer, G Blanchfield, J AF Duncan, M Drabenstott, M Graham, J Swackhamer, G Blanchfield, J TI Untitled SO AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Meeting Abstract C1 N DAKOTA STATE UNIV,FARGO,ND. FED RESERVE BANK KANSAS CITY,KANSAS CITY,MO. CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE,CHICAGO,IL. FARM CREDIT BANK BALTIMORE,BALTIMORE,MD. AMER BANKERS ASSOC,WASHINGTON,DC. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU AMER AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS ASSOC PI AMES PA 1110 BUCKEYE AVE, AMES, IA 50010-8063 SN 0002-9092 J9 AM J AGR ECON JI Am. J. Agr. Econ. PD DEC PY 1995 VL 77 IS 5 BP 1349 EP 1350 PG 2 WC Agricultural Economics & Policy; Economics SC Agriculture; Business & Economics GA UA027 UT WOS:A1995UA02700050 ER PT J AU Lamb, R AF Lamb, R TI Off-farm labor supply and fertilizer use in the semi-arid tropics of India SO AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Meeting Abstract C1 FED RESERVE BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU AMER AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS ASSOC PI AMES PA 1110 BUCKEYE AVE, AMES, IA 50010-8063 SN 0002-9092 J9 AM J AGR ECON JI Am. J. Agr. Econ. PD DEC PY 1995 VL 77 IS 5 BP 1362 EP 1362 PG 1 WC Agricultural Economics & Policy; Economics SC Agriculture; Business & Economics GA UA027 UT WOS:A1995UA02700118 ER PT J AU MILLER, GH AF MILLER, GH TI DYNAMICS OF THE UNITED-STATES INTERSTATE MIGRATION SYSTEM, 1975-1992 SO GROWTH AND CHANGE LA English DT Note ID UNEMPLOYMENT; EMPLOYMENT; LABOR AB This note is an empirical study that further develops existing analysis by McHugh and Gober published in this journal (1992). The note follows McHugh and Gober by using annual state-to-state migration flow data from Internal Revenue Service records and measures of migration efficiency in analyzing the U.S. interstate migration system. It extends the analysis to a longer period, however-1975 to 1992. This note enhances McHugh and Gober's analysis by extending our knowledge of changes in U.S. migration patterns into the 1990s. But it also suggests modifications to some of their conclusions. First, the note concludes that the emergence of a new pattern of population redistribution in the U.S. in the 1980s, as reported by McHugh and Gober, was indeed significant, but that it was transitory. Second, the note's analysis does not support McHugh and Gober's conclusion of a fairly strong inverse relationship between migration effectiveness and economic expansions and contractions. RP MILLER, GH (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK,KANSAS CITY,MO, USA. NR 13 TC 11 Z9 11 U1 0 U2 1 PU GROWTH AND CHANGE PI LEXINGTON PA 303 MATHEWS BLDG UNIV KENTUCKY, LEXINGTON, KY 40506-0047 SN 0017-4815 J9 GROWTH CHANGE JI Growth Change PD WIN PY 1995 VL 26 IS 1 BP 139 EP 160 DI 10.1111/j.1468-2257.1995.tb00164.x PG 22 WC Planning & Development SC Public Administration GA QZ413 UT WOS:A1995QZ41300006 PM 12319602 ER PT J AU Jordan, JL AF Jordan, JL TI Supervision of derivative instruments SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH LA English DT Article RP Jordan, JL (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,CLEVELAND,OH 44101, USA. NR 13 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 0 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0920-8550 J9 J FINANC SERV RES JI J. Financ. Serv. Res. PD DEC PY 1995 VL 9 IS 3-4 BP 433 EP 444 DI 10.1007/BF01051763 PG 12 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA TM724 UT WOS:A1995TM72400019 ER PT J AU Leahy, MP AF Leahy, MP TI The profitability of US intervention in the foreign exchange markets SO JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL MONEY AND FINANCE LA English DT Article ID INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE AB Using a formula for intervention profits in which profitability measured as of date T depends on how well intervention operations predict ex post deviations from interest parity, this paper shows that US intervention since the beginning of generalized floating in 1973 has earned profits for the US monetary authorities. Fundamental explanations for the profitability of US intervention are difficult to isolate, but statistical tests suggest that it is unlikely the profits are merely the outcome of chance or a normal return to bearing time-invariant risk. RP Leahy, MP (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,DIV INTERNAL FINANCE,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 25 TC 22 Z9 22 U1 0 U2 0 PU BUTTERWORTH-HEINEMANN LTD PI OXFORD PA THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD, OXON, ENGLAND OX5 1GB SN 0261-5606 J9 J INT MONEY FINANC JI J. Int. Money Finan. PD DEC PY 1995 VL 14 IS 6 BP 823 EP 844 DI 10.1016/0261-5606(95)00026-7 PG 22 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA TN535 UT WOS:A1995TN53500005 ER PT J AU Gagnon, JE Unferth, MD AF Gagnon, JE Unferth, MD TI Is there a world real interest rate? SO JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL MONEY AND FINANCE LA English DT Article AB This study uses panel data techniques to estimate a common component to the ex post real interest rates of nine countries with liberal capital markets over the past 16 years. We show that the residuals from such a regression have almost no serial correlation, and that each country's real interest rate is highly correlated with the estimated world real interest rate. The primary exception to these findings is the behavior of the US real interest rate, which exhibits large and persistent deviations from the estimated world real interest rate, although it is still highly correlated with the world real interest rate. C1 UNIV ROCHESTER,SIMON SCH BUSINESS,ROCHESTER,NY. RP Gagnon, JE (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 7 TC 22 Z9 22 U1 0 U2 0 PU BUTTERWORTH-HEINEMANN LTD PI OXFORD PA THE BOULEVARD, LANGFORD LANE, KIDLINGTON, OXFORD, OXON, ENGLAND OX5 1GB SN 0261-5606 J9 J INT MONEY FINANC JI J. Int. Money Finan. PD DEC PY 1995 VL 14 IS 6 BP 845 EP 855 DI 10.1016/0261-5606(95)00028-3 PG 11 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA TN535 UT WOS:A1995TN53500006 ER PT J AU Bullard, J Keating, JW AF Bullard, J Keating, JW TI The long-run relationship between inflation and output in postwar economies SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE structural vector autoregression; superneutrality ID SUPPLY DISTURBANCES; AGGREGATE DEMAND; REALITY; GROWTH AB We investigate the relationship between inflation and real output in a large sample of postwar economies. Our methodology is to use a structural vector autoregression to estimate the response of the level of real output to permanent inflation shocks separately for each country. We find that a permanent shock to inflation is not associated with a permanent movement in the level of real output for most countries in our sample. The main exceptions are certain low inflation countries, in which permanent inflation shocks permanently increase the level of output. We also find that permanent inflation shocks do not permanently influence real output growth rates in our sample. C1 WASHINGTON UNIV,DEPT ECON,ST LOUIS,MO 63130. RP Bullard, J (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK ST LOUIS,DEPT RES,ST LOUIS,MO 63102, USA. RI Bullard, James/L-8120-2016 OI Bullard, James/0000-0002-1142-6803 NR 20 TC 92 Z9 94 U1 0 U2 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD DEC PY 1995 VL 36 IS 3 BP 477 EP 496 DI 10.1016/0304-3932(95)01227-3 PG 20 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA UK899 UT WOS:A1995UK89900002 ER PT J AU Rudebusch, GD AF Rudebusch, GD TI Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure (vol 35, pg 245, 1995) SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Correction, Addition DE term structure; rational expectations; Federal Reserve RP Rudebusch, GD (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK SAN FRANCISCO,ECON RES DEPT,SAN FRANCISCO,CA 94105, USA. NR 1 TC 6 Z9 6 U1 0 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD DEC PY 1995 VL 36 IS 3 BP 679 EP 679 DI 10.1016/0304-3932(95)01228-1 PG 1 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA UK899 UT WOS:A1995UK89900011 ER PT J AU AIYAGARI, SR AF AIYAGARI, SR TI OPTIMAL CAPITAL INCOME TAXATION WITH INCOMPLETE MARKETS, BORROWING CONSTRAINTS, AND CONSTANT DISCOUNTING SO JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY LA English DT Article ID LIQUIDITY CONSTRAINTS; ACCUMULATION; EQUILIBRIUM AB For a wide class of infinitely lived agent models, Chamley has shown that the optimal capital income tax rate is zero in the long run. Lucas has argued that for the U.S. economy, there is a significant welfare gain from switching to this policy. This paper shows that for the Bewley class of models with incomplete insurance markets and borrowing constraints, the optimal tax rate on capital income is positive, even in the long run. Therefore, cutting the capital income tax to zero may well lead to welfare losses. RP AIYAGARI, SR (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55401, USA. NR 20 TC 94 Z9 95 U1 0 U2 7 PU UNIV CHICAGO PRESS PI CHICAGO PA 5720 S WOODLAWN AVE, CHICAGO, IL 60637 SN 0022-3808 J9 J POLIT ECON JI J. Polit. Econ. PD DEC PY 1995 VL 103 IS 6 BP 1158 EP 1175 PG 18 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA TH532 UT WOS:A1995TH53200002 ER PT J AU HUNTER, WC AF HUNTER, WC TI EFFICIENCY OF SERVICE DELIVERY SYSTEMS IN LARGE COMMERCIAL-BANKS SO PSYCHOLOGY & MARKETING LA English DT Article AB This article provides novel empirical evidence on the cross-sectional variation of the productive efficiency of large banks relative to their service delivery systems, The analysis is conducted using data drawn from a sample of 118 large U.S. commercial banks for the years 1989 through 1991. The analysis reveals that centralized service delivery systems increase bank costs significantly, In no case was it found that centralized service delivery systems reduce costs, as is often envisioned by proponents of centralization. It is also found that centralized back-office operations tend to reduce costs significantly and are consistent with the existence of scale economies in bank back-office operations. (C) 1995 John Wiley & Sons, Inc, RP HUNTER, WC (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,230 S LA SALLE ST,CHICAGO,IL 60604, USA. NR 19 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 2 PU JOHN WILEY & SONS INC PI NEW YORK PA 605 THIRD AVE, NEW YORK, NY 10158-0012 SN 0742-6046 J9 PSYCHOL MARKET JI Psychol. Mark. PD DEC PY 1995 VL 12 IS 8 BP 751 EP 764 DI 10.1002/mar.4220120809 PG 14 WC Business; Psychology, Applied SC Business & Economics; Psychology GA TJ707 UT WOS:A1995TJ70700006 ER PT J AU Rhoades, SA AF Rhoades, SA TI Market share inequality, the HHI, and other measures of the firm-composition of a market SO REVIEW OF INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATION LA English DT Article DE structure-performance; efficient-structure hypothesis; Herfindahl-Hirschman index; market share inequality; market imperfections AB Data for individual markets suggest that the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index does not fully account for the inequality of market shares and the number of firms in a market. An empirical investigation is conducted to determine whether share inequality, number of firms, and major firm presence affect market profit rates independent of the HHI. The analysis controls for efficiency, among other things. Test results based on 1,684 banking markets during 1990-1992 indicate that the HHI, market share inequality, and the importance of major firms are positively related and the number of firms is negatively related to profit rates. Results on several other variables also suggest that market imperfections exist in local banking markets. RP Rhoades, SA (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD,STOP 149,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 24 TC 23 Z9 24 U1 1 U2 6 PU KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBL PI DORDRECHT PA SPUIBOULEVARD 50, PO BOX 17, 3300 AA DORDRECHT, NETHERLANDS SN 0889-938X J9 REV IND ORGAN JI Rev. Ind. Organ. PD DEC PY 1995 VL 10 IS 6 BP 657 EP 674 DI 10.1007/BF01024300 PG 18 WC Economics; Management SC Business & Economics GA TN565 UT WOS:A1995TN56500001 ER PT J AU EICHENBAUM, M AF EICHENBAUM, M TI SOME COMMENTS ON THE ROLE OF ECONOMETRICS IN ECONOMIC-THEORY SO ECONOMIC JOURNAL LA English DT Article C1 NBER,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,CHICAGO,IL. RP EICHENBAUM, M (reprint author), NORTHWESTERN UNIV,EVANSTON,IL 60208, USA. NR 24 TC 4 Z9 4 U1 1 U2 2 PU BLACKWELL PUBL LTD PI OXFORD PA 108 COWLEY RD, OXFORD, OXON, ENGLAND OX4 1JF SN 0013-0133 J9 ECON J JI Econ. J. PD NOV PY 1995 VL 105 IS 433 BP 1609 EP 1621 DI 10.2307/2235122 PG 13 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA TJ010 UT WOS:A1995TJ01000018 ER PT J AU DEGENNARO, RP THOMSON, JB AF DEGENNARO, RP THOMSON, JB TI ANTICIPATING BAILOUTS - THE INCENTIVE-CONFLICT MODEL AND THE COLLAPSE OF THE OHIO DEPOSIT GUARANTEE FUND SO JOURNAL OF BANKING & FINANCE LA English DT Article DE BANKING; FORBEARANCE; ODGF ID VALUATION; EVENT AB The collapse of the Ohio Deposit Guarantee Fund in March 1985 provides a laboratory for examining the financial market's belief in the incentive-conflict model proposed by Kane (1989). Research in this area has yet to examine the stock returns of federally insured institutions during that period in the context of this model. Thus, it has not addressed the question of whether financial market participants recognize the implications of the model; that is, whether they anticipate the bailouts it implies. This paper fills that void. We find that on average, stocks of firms insured by the poorly capitalized FSLIC do reasonably well during the 41-day event window centered on the ODGF's Bank Holiday, while stocks of firms insured by the relatively well-capitalized FDIC do not. More important, differences in abnormal returns of FDIC and FSLIC firms are consistent with a reaffirmation of the incentive-conflict model. C1 FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,RES DEPT,CLEVELAND,OH 44101. UNIV TENNESSEE,DEPT FINANCE,KNOXVILLE,TN 37996. NR 14 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 2 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0378-4266 J9 J BANK FINANC JI J. Bank Financ. PD NOV PY 1995 VL 19 IS 8 BP 1401 EP 1418 DI 10.1016/0378-4266(94)00114-I PG 18 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA TG716 UT WOS:A1995TG71600005 ER PT J AU IRELAND, PN AF IRELAND, PN TI OPTIMAL DISINFLATIONARY PATHS SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS & CONTROL LA English DT Article DE DISINFLATION; CREDIBILITY; SEIGNIORAGE ID INFLATION; MODEL; COSTS AB This paper characterizes optimal monetary policy in the context of a general equilibrium model with optimizing agents and staggered price setting. Starting from a steady state with positive inflation, a rapid disinflation is desirable when announcements of future monetary policy are fully credible. Disinflationary policy yields substantial losses in output and employment when the monetary authority lacks credibility; nevertheless, the benefits of disinflation still exceed the costs. Disinflation often fails to be welfare-improving, however, when lost seignorage revenues must be replaced using other distortionary taxes. RP IRELAND, PN (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK RICHMOND,RES DEPT,RICHMOND,VA 23261, USA. NR 21 TC 15 Z9 16 U1 1 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0165-1889 J9 J ECON DYN CONTROL JI J. Econ. Dyn. Control PD NOV PY 1995 VL 19 IS 8 BP 1429 EP 1448 DI 10.1016/0165-1889(94)00836-7 PG 20 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA RZ343 UT WOS:A1995RZ34300006 ER PT J AU METCALF, GE HASSETT, KA AF METCALF, GE HASSETT, KA TI INVESTMENT UNDER ALTERNATIVE RETURN ASSUMPTIONS - COMPARING RANDOM-WALKS AND MEAN REVERSION SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS & CONTROL LA English DT Article DE INVESTMENT; UNCERTAINTY; STOCHASTIC PROCESSES ID UNCERTAINTY; FIRM AB Many recent theoretical papers have come under attack for modeling prices as Geometric Brownian Motion. This process can diverge over time, implying that firms facing this price process can earn infinite profits. We explore the significance of this attack and contrast investment under Geometric Brownian Motion with investment assuming mean reversion. While analytically more complex, mean reversion in many cases is a more plausible assumption, allowing for supply responses to increasing prices. We show that cumulative investment is generally unaffected by the use of a mean reversion process rather than Geometric Brownian Motion and provide an explanation for this result. C1 FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. RP METCALF, GE (reprint author), TUFTS UNIV,DEPT ECON,MEDFORD,MA 02155, USA. NR 10 TC 57 Z9 59 U1 1 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0165-1889 J9 J ECON DYN CONTROL JI J. Econ. Dyn. Control PD NOV PY 1995 VL 19 IS 8 BP 1471 EP 1488 DI 10.1016/0165-1889(94)00838-9 PG 18 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA RZ343 UT WOS:A1995RZ34300008 ER PT J AU AIYAGARI, SR PELED, D AF AIYAGARI, SR PELED, D TI SOCIAL INSURANCE AND TAXATION UNDER SEQUENTIAL MAJORITY VOTING AND UTILITARIAN REGIMES SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS & CONTROL LA English DT Article DE PROPORTIONAL TAXES; SEQUENTIAL MAJORITY VOTING; UTILITARIAN GOVERNMENT ID LINEAR INCOME-TAX; UNCERTAINTY AB It is often argued that with a positively skewed income distribution (median less than mean) a majority voting over proportional tax rates would result in higher tax rates than those that maximize average welfare, and will accordingly reduce aggregate savings. We reexamine this view in a capital accumulation model, in which distorting redistributive taxes provide insurance against idiosyncratic shocks, and income distributions evolve endogenously. We find only small differences of either sign between the tax rates set by a majority voting and a utilitarian government, for reasonable parametric specifications. We show how these differences reflect a greater responsiveness of a utilitarian government to the average need for the insurance provided by the tax-redistribution scheme. These conclusions remain true despite the fact that the model simulations produce positively skewed distributions of total income across agents. C1 TECHNION ISRAEL INST TECHNOL,FAC IND ENGN & MANAGEMENT,IL-32000 HAIFA,ISRAEL. FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,RES DEPT,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55401. UNIV WESTERN ONTARIO,LONDON,ON,CANADA. NR 15 TC 1 Z9 2 U1 1 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0165-1889 J9 J ECON DYN CONTROL JI J. Econ. Dyn. Control PD NOV PY 1995 VL 19 IS 8 BP 1511 EP 1528 DI 10.1016/0165-1889(94)00840-E PG 18 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA RZ343 UT WOS:A1995RZ34300010 ER PT J AU Carlstrom, CT Fuerst, TS AF Carlstrom, CT Fuerst, TS TI Interest rate rules vs money growth rules - A welfare comparison in a cash-in-advance economy SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE general equilibrium; money and interest rates; monetary policy ID PRICE-LEVEL DETERMINACY; REAL-BILLS DOCTRINE; RATIONAL-EXPECTATIONS; BUSINESS-CYCLE; MODEL; LIQUIDITY AB This paper considers the welfare consequences of two particularly simple rules for monetary policy: an interest rate peg and a money growth peg. The model economy consists of a real side that is the standard real business cycle model and a monetary side that amounts to imposing cash-in-advance constraints on certain market transactions. The paper also considers the effect of assuming a rigidity in the typical household's cash savings choice. The competitive equilibrium of the economy is not Pareto efficient, partly because of two distortions: a distortion on the capital accumulation decision and a distortion on portfolio choice that arises from the assumed rigidity. The principal result of the paper is that the interest rate rule (but not the money growth rule) entirely eliminates these two distortions and is thus the benevolent central banker's policy choice. C1 BOWLING GREEN STATE UNIV,DEPT ECON,BOWLING GREEN,OH 43403. FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,CLEVELAND,OH 44101. NR 27 TC 29 Z9 30 U1 0 U2 1 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD NOV PY 1995 VL 36 IS 2 BP 247 EP 267 DI 10.1016/0304-3932(95)01221-4 PG 21 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA TZ031 UT WOS:A1995TZ03100001 ER PT J AU McCarthy, J AF McCarthy, J TI Imperfect insurance and differing propensities to consume across households SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE precautionary savings; liquidity constraints; marginal propensity to consume ID PRECAUTIONARY SAVINGS; LIQUIDITY CONSTRAINTS; INCOME AB This paper extends previous tests of consumption insurance by splitting the sample to examine whether the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) out of idiosyncratic income shocks is larger for low-wealth households than it is for high-wealth households. Using data from the PSID, I find: (1) The MPC of low-wealth households is higher than that of high-wealth households. There are indications that both precautionary savings behavior and liquidity constraints contribute to this difference. (2) Splitting the data using two different measures of wealth indicates that households perceive housing equity as illiquid. (3) When low-wealth households are split into two subgroups, the MPC of the very-low-wealth group is smaller, reflecting the insurance aspects of means-tested safety-net programs. RP McCarthy, J (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,NEW YORK,NY 10045, USA. NR 27 TC 9 Z9 9 U1 0 U2 5 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD NOV PY 1995 VL 36 IS 2 BP 301 EP 327 DI 10.1016/0304-3932(95)01214-1 PG 27 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA TZ031 UT WOS:A1995TZ03100003 ER PT J AU Ahmed, S Rogers, JH AF Ahmed, S Rogers, JH TI Government budget deficits and trade deficits Are present value constraints satisfied in long-term data? SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE intertemporal budget constraints; government budget and trade deficits; structural breaks ID UNITED-STATES; INTEGRATED SYSTEMS; HYPOTHESIS; REVENUE; VECTORS; ROOT AB We test whether long-term data from the U.S. and U.K. are consistent with the intertemporal government budget constraint and external borrowing constraint, both individually and simultaneously. A very strong test is provided by our focus on whether the present value constraints (PVCs) continue to hold despite unusual events, such as wars, that cause a structural break in the short-run dynamic behavior of the variables. We find that the PVCs hold over the whole sample period. The data also indicate that the PVCs continue to hold following events that cause a structural break in the short-run dynamics. C1 FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551. PENN STATE UNIV,DEPT ECON,UNIVERSITY PK,PA 16802. NR 19 TC 82 Z9 83 U1 0 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD NOV PY 1995 VL 36 IS 2 BP 351 EP 374 DI 10.1016/0304-3932(95)01215-X PG 24 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA TZ031 UT WOS:A1995TZ03100005 ER PT J AU Tallman, EW Wang, P AF Tallman, EW Wang, P TI Money demand and the relative price of capital goods in hyperinflations SO JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE hyperinflation dynamics; real and nominal interactions ID INFLATION; EXPECTATIONS; EXCHANGE; ECONOMY AB We investigate dynamic interactions between relative price movements and money demand behaviors during hyperinflations, viewing relative price changes as resulting primarily from real disturbances. We develop a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous consumption and capital goods to illustrate how monetary shocks may produce real effects through the relative price channel. This motivates the design of long-run restrictions to identify a structural vector autoregression, employing data from the post-WWI Germany and the post-WWII Chinese hyperinflationary episodes. The empirical results support the contention that both real and nominal shocks have important effects on the relative price and money demand during hyperinflations. C1 PENN STATE UNIV,UNIVERSITY PK,PA 16802. RP Tallman, EW (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK ATLANTA,ATLANTA,GA 30303, USA. NR 28 TC 6 Z9 6 U1 1 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV PI AMSTERDAM PA PO BOX 211, 1000 AE AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS SN 0304-3932 J9 J MONETARY ECON JI J. Monetary Econ. PD NOV PY 1995 VL 36 IS 2 BP 375 EP 404 DI 10.1016/0304-3932(95)01217-6 PG 30 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA TZ031 UT WOS:A1995TZ03100006 ER PT J AU Roberts, JM AF Roberts, JM TI New Keynesian economics and the Phillips curve SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID UNIT-ROOT; HYPOTHESIS; PRICES; OUTPUT; MONEY RP Roberts, JM (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC, USA. NR 20 TC 222 Z9 231 U1 0 U2 11 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD NOV PY 1995 VL 27 IS 4 BP 975 EP 984 DI 10.2307/2077783 PN 1 PG 10 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA TK924 UT WOS:A1995TK92400003 ER PT J AU Fuhrer, JC Moore, GR AF Fuhrer, JC Moore, GR TI Forward-looking behavior and the stability of a conventional monetary policy rule SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID DYNAMICS; PRICES C1 FED RESERVE BOARD,DIV RES & STAT,WASHINGTON,DC. RP Fuhrer, JC (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,RES DEPT,BOSTON,MA, USA. RI Fuhrer, Jeff/F-8852-2013 NR 9 TC 12 Z9 12 U1 0 U2 1 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD NOV PY 1995 VL 27 IS 4 BP 1060 EP 1070 DI 10.2307/2077789 PN 1 PG 11 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA TK924 UT WOS:A1995TK92400009 ER PT J AU Christiano, LJ Eichenbaum, M AF Christiano, LJ Eichenbaum, M TI Liquidity effects, monetary policy, and the business cycle SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article ID TRANSMISSION MECHANISM; EQUILIBRIUM-MODEL; INFLATION; ECONOMY C1 NATL BUR ECON RES,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,CHICAGO,IL. FED RESERVE BANK,MINNEAPOLIS,MN. RP Christiano, LJ (reprint author), NORTHWESTERN UNIV,EVANSTON,IL 60208, USA. NR 26 TC 57 Z9 59 U1 0 U2 1 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD NOV PY 1995 VL 27 IS 4 BP 1113 EP 1136 DI 10.2307/2077793 PN 1 PG 24 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA TK924 UT WOS:A1995TK92400013 ER PT J AU Jordan, JL AF Jordan, JL TI Liquidity, monetary policy, and financial intermediation - A conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland September 29-30, 1994 - Preface SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Editorial Material RP Jordan, JL (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,CLEVELAND,OH 44114, USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD NOV PY 1995 VL 27 IS 4 BP 1197 EP 1198 PN 2 PG 2 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA TK925 UT WOS:A1995TK92500001 ER PT J AU Altig, D Carlstrom, CT AF Altig, D Carlstrom, CT TI Liquidity, monetary policy, and financial intermediation - A conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland September 29-30, 1994 - Introduction SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Editorial Material ID EXPECTATIONS RP Altig, D (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,CLEVELAND,OH 44114, USA. NR 12 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD NOV PY 1995 VL 27 IS 4 BP 1199 EP 1208 DI 10.2307/2078044 PN 2 PG 10 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA TK925 UT WOS:A1995TK92500002 ER PT J AU Gilles, C AF Gilles, C TI The effects of real and monetary shocks in a business cycle model with some sticky prices - Comment SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Note RP Gilles, C (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 0 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD NOV PY 1995 VL 27 IS 4 BP 1235 EP 1236 DI 10.2307/2078046 PN 2 PG 2 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA TK925 UT WOS:A1995TK92500004 ER PT J AU Labadie, P AF Labadie, P TI Financial intermediation and monetary policy in a general equilibrium banking model SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Liquidity, Monetary Policy, and Financial Intermediation CY SEP 29-30, 1994 CL CLEVELAND, OH SP Fed Reserve Bank Cleveland ID RISK RP Labadie, P (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 14 TC 6 Z9 6 U1 0 U2 2 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD NOV PY 1995 VL 27 IS 4 BP 1290 EP 1315 DI 10.2307/2078050 PN 2 PG 26 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA TK925 UT WOS:A1995TK92500008 ER PT J AU Fuerst, TS AF Fuerst, TS TI Monetary and financial interactions in the business cycle SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Liquidity, Monetary Policy, and Financial Intermediation CY SEP 29-30, 1994 CL CLEVELAND, OH SP Fed Reserve Bank Cleveland ID INTERMEDIATION; CONTRACTS; PROPAGATION; LIQUIDITY C1 FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,CLEVELAND,OH 44114. RP Fuerst, TS (reprint author), BOWLING GREEN STATE UNIV,BOWLING GREEN,OH 43403, USA. NR 28 TC 29 Z9 29 U1 0 U2 4 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD NOV PY 1995 VL 27 IS 4 BP 1321 EP 1338 DI 10.2307/2078053 PN 2 PG 18 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA TK925 UT WOS:A1995TK92500011 ER PT J AU Evans, CL AF Evans, CL TI Monetary and financial interactions in the business cycle - Comment SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Note RP Evans, CL (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,CHICAGO,IL 60604, USA. NR 11 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 1 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD NOV PY 1995 VL 27 IS 4 BP 1339 EP 1341 DI 10.2307/2078054 PN 2 PG 3 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA TK925 UT WOS:A1995TK92500012 ER PT J AU Gertler, M AF Gertler, M TI Monetary and financial interactions in the business cycle - Comment SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Note C1 FED RESERVE BANK NEW YORK,NEW YORK,NY 10045. NATL BUR ECON RES,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. RP Gertler, M (reprint author), NYU,550 1ST AVE,NEW YORK,NY 10012, USA. NR 8 TC 7 Z9 7 U1 0 U2 0 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD NOV PY 1995 VL 27 IS 4 BP 1342 EP 1353 DI 10.2307/2078055 PN 2 PG 12 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA TK925 UT WOS:A1995TK92500013 ER PT J AU Chari, VV Christiano, LJ Eichenbaum, M AF Chari, VV Christiano, LJ Eichenbaum, M TI Inside money, outside money, and short-term interest rates SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Liquidity, Monetary Policy, and Financial Intermediation CY SEP 29-30, 1994 CL CLEVELAND, OH SP Fed Reserve Bank Cleveland ID REAL-BUSINESS-CYCLE; LIQUIDITY; LABOR C1 FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN. NORTHWESTERN UNIV,EVANSTON,IL 60208. FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,CHICAGO,IL. RP Chari, VV (reprint author), UNIV MINNESOTA,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55455, USA. NR 23 TC 35 Z9 35 U1 0 U2 4 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD NOV PY 1995 VL 27 IS 4 BP 1354 EP 1386 DI 10.2307/2078056 PN 2 PG 33 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA TK925 UT WOS:A1995TK92500014 ER PT J AU Marshall, DA AF Marshall, DA TI Estimating policy-invariant deep parameters in the financial sector when risk and growth matter - Comment SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Note ID MONEY RP Marshall, DA (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO, CHICAGO, IL 60604 USA. NR 13 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU WILEY-BLACKWELL PI HOBOKEN PA 111 RIVER ST, HOBOKEN 07030-5774, NJ USA SN 0022-2879 EI 1538-4616 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD NOV PY 1995 VL 27 IS 4 BP 1436 EP 1440 DI 10.2307/2078061 PN 2 PG 5 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA TK925 UT WOS:A1995TK92500019 ER PT J AU Dotsey, M Ireland, P AF Dotsey, M Ireland, P TI Liquidity effects and transactions technologies SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Liquidity, Monetary Policy, and Financial Intermediation CY SEP 29-30, 1994 CL CLEVELAND, OH SP Fed Reserve Bank Cleveland ID INTEREST-RATES RP Dotsey, M (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK RICHMOND, RICHMOND, VA 23219 USA. NR 13 TC 11 Z9 11 U1 0 U2 1 PU WILEY-BLACKWELL PI HOBOKEN PA 111 RIVER ST, HOBOKEN 07030-5774, NJ USA SN 0022-2879 EI 1538-4616 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD NOV PY 1995 VL 27 IS 4 BP 1441 EP 1457 DI 10.2307/2078062 PN 2 PG 17 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA TK925 UT WOS:A1995TK92500020 ER PT J AU Schlagenhauf, D Wrase, J AF Schlagenhauf, D Wrase, J TI Liquidity effects and transactions technologies - Comment SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Note ID EQUILIBRIUM; INFLATION; ECONOMY; MODEL C1 FED RESERVE BANK PHILADELPHIA,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19106. RP Schlagenhauf, D (reprint author), ARIZONA STATE UNIV,TEMPE,AZ 85287, USA. NR 11 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 0 U2 0 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD NOV PY 1995 VL 27 IS 4 BP 1461 EP 1471 DI 10.2307/2078064 PN 2 PG 11 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA TK925 UT WOS:A1995TK92500022 ER PT J AU Altig, DE Carlstrom, CT Lansing, KJ AF Altig, DE Carlstrom, CT Lansing, KJ TI Computable general equilibrium models and monetary policy advice SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT Conference on Liquidity, Monetary Policy, and Financial Intermediation CY SEP 29-30, 1994 CL CLEVELAND, OH SP Fed Reserve Bank Cleveland ID RATIONAL-EXPECTATIONS; INDIVISIBLE LABOR; LIQUIDITY; RULE RP Altig, DE (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK CLEVELAND,CLEVELAND,OH 44114, USA. NR 30 TC 3 Z9 3 U1 0 U2 0 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD NOV PY 1995 VL 27 IS 4 BP 1472 EP 1493 DI 10.2307/2078065 PN 2 PG 22 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA TK925 UT WOS:A1995TK92500023 ER PT J AU Leeper, EM AF Leeper, EM TI Computable general equilibrium models and monetary policy advice - Comment SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Note ID RATIONAL-EXPECTATIONS; RULE C1 FED RESERVE BANK ATLANTA,ATLANTA,GA 30303. RP Leeper, EM (reprint author), INDIANA UNIV,BLOOMINGTON,IN 47405, USA. NR 19 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 1 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD NOV PY 1995 VL 27 IS 4 BP 1494 EP 1501 DI 10.2307/2078066 PN 2 PG 8 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA TK925 UT WOS:A1995TK92500024 ER PT J AU Prescott, EC AF Prescott, EC TI Computable general equilibrium models and monetary policy advice - Comment SO JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING LA English DT Note C1 FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,RES DEPT,MINNEAPOLIS,MN. RP Prescott, EC (reprint author), UNIV MINNESOTA,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55455, USA. NR 7 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 1 U2 1 PU OHIO STATE UNIV PRESS PI COLUMBUS PA 1050 CARMACK RD, COLUMBUS, OH 43210 SN 0022-2879 J9 J MONEY CREDIT BANK JI J. Money Credit Bank. PD NOV PY 1995 VL 27 IS 4 BP 1502 EP 1505 DI 10.2307/2078067 PN 2 PG 4 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA TK925 UT WOS:A1995TK92500025 ER PT J AU Peek, J Rosengren, ES AF Peek, J Rosengren, ES TI Is bank lending important for the transmission of monetary policy? An overview SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article AB To improve our understanding of the role of banks in the transmission of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston convened a conference in June of 1995 to consider the question, ''Is Bank Lending Important for the Transmission of Monetary Policy?'' That banks are an important element in the transmission process is not an issue, because monetary policy operates through the banking sector. However, the description of the exact role played by banks remains hotly disputed, with the debate focusing on the importance of the role for bank lending as a transmission channel (the lending view) distinct from the generally accepted channel operating through interest rates (the money view). Bankers, economists, and other financial specialists met to discuss whether bank lending should be considered an important component of the transmission of monetary policy. Proponents argued that changes in bank assets as well as bank liabilities influence the future course of the economy. Many economists remain skeptical of the role of banks, however, believing that a focus on interest rates or money aggregates is sufficient for understanding the transmission of monetary policy. This article presents an overview of the papers presented at the conference and the comments of their discussants. C1 FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02210. RP Peek, J (reprint author), BOSTON COLL,BOSTON,MA 02167, USA. NR 0 TC 2 Z9 2 U1 0 U2 0 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD NOV-DEC PY 1995 BP 3 EP & PG 9 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA TQ216 UT WOS:A1995TQ21600001 ER PT J AU Stavins, J AF Stavins, J TI Firm strategies in the personal computer market: Are established brands better off? SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID ENTRY DETERRENCE; COMPETITION; LOCATION AB The personal computer market underwent significant structural changes throughout the late 1970s and 1980s. While some manufacturers of personal computers managed to remain in the market for a number of years, many others left after a short time. Besides the more visible movement of firms in and out of the industry, each firm also made underlying decisions regarding which models to offer. This article analyzes model selection strategies adopted by personal computer (PC) companies from 1976 to 1988, focusing on differences between established and new firms. While new firms were more likely to produce models with similar characteristics, established firms offered a larger variety of models. With such model ''dispersion'' strategies, they avoided replacing their existing models and occupied new, top-of-the-line market segments before entrants. High-priced models, controlling for their technical attributes and brand effects, were more likely to leave the market. Brand effects were also significant in affecting PC models' probability of exit. Models produced by firms with more experience, both in years and in the number of models produced in the past, were more likely to survive longer. RP Stavins, J (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02210, USA. NR 22 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 1 U2 3 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD NOV-DEC PY 1995 BP 13 EP & PG 13 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA TQ216 UT WOS:A1995TQ21600002 ER PT J AU Fieleke, N AF Fieleke, N TI The soaring trade in ''nontradables'' SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID SERVICES AB In recent years international trade has flourished in a category heretofore considered largely nontradable. Services are being exchanged across national boundaries in unprecedented volumes, with growth rates exceeding those for trade in merchandise. In addition to cross-border trade, foreign direct investment and sales by foreign affiliates are also growing rapidly. The phenomenon has attracted growing attention both from impartial analysts and from government officials seeking to expand their countries' exports. This article examines the nature of this trade and considers which countries compete most effectively Among the various types of services traded, the most dynamic growth has occurred in private sector activities such as advertising, accounting and finance, legal services, and computer and data processing services. Obstacles to the trade, such as government barriers, are explored, and the efforts of the Uruguay Round of trade negotiations to reduce them are evaluated. RP Fieleke, N (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02210, USA. NR 19 TC 6 Z9 6 U1 0 U2 0 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD NOV-DEC PY 1995 BP 25 EP & PG 13 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA TQ216 UT WOS:A1995TQ21600003 ER PT J AU Kopcke, RW AF Kopcke, RW TI Safety and soundness of financial intermediaries: Capital requirements, deposit insurance, and monetary policy SO NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article ID INFORMATION; INVESTMENT AB More than two-thirds of the $25 trillion of financial assets held in the United States is managed on behalf of investors by financial intermediaries, ranging from trusts, mutual funds, and mortgage pools to insurance companies, pension funds, and banks. Because of their importance, governments have long regulated the activities of these intermediaries to ensure sound financial markets, a foundation of secure economic development. Currently, regulators both here and abroad are considering reforms that not only might foster more efficient domestic financial markets, but also might prepare the way for more equitable global markets. When not all investors are fully informed about the prospective returns on all assets, the cost of funds for financial intermediaries depends on savers' state of confidence in their investments. Because the regulations that govern intermediaries affect the price of risk in financial markets and because this influence varies with economic conditions, the actions of regulators, like those of the monetary authority, may need to adjust with economic conditions in order to foster the prudent valuation of assets. The prompt enforcement of fixed, risk-based capital requirements, for example, might diminish the ability of financial intermediaries to cope with economic shocks. Because capital ratios measure neither the insurance inherent in intermediaries' balance sheets nor the capacity of this insurance to contend with different risks, more revealing assessments of the safety and soundness of intermediaries should consider how their earnings and cash flows might change with economic conditions. RP Kopcke, RW (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON, BOSTON, MA 02210 USA. NR 64 TC 1 Z9 1 U1 1 U2 5 PU FEDERAL RESERVE BANK BOSTON PI BOSTON PA PO BOX 2076, BOSTON, MA 02106-2076 USA SN 0028-4726 J9 NEW ENGL ECON REV JI New Engl. Econ. Rev. PD NOV-DEC PY 1995 BP 37 EP + PG 0 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA TQ216 UT WOS:A1995TQ21600004 ER PT J AU EICHENBAUM, M EVANS, CL AF EICHENBAUM, M EVANS, CL TI SOME EMPIRICAL-EVIDENCE ON THE EFFECTS OF SHOCKS TO MONETARY-POLICY ON EXCHANGE-RATES SO QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS LA English DT Article ID LIQUIDITY AB This paper investigates the effects of shocks to U.S. monetary policy on exchange rates. We consider three measures of these shocks: orthogonalized shocks to the federal funds rate, orthogonalized shocks to the ratio of nonborrowed to total reserves and changes in the Romer and Romer index of monetary policy. In sharp contrast to the literature, we find substantial evidence of a link between monetary policy and exchange rates. Specifically, according to our results a contractionary shock to U.S. monetary policy leads to (i) persistent, significant appreciations in U.S. nominal and real exchange rates and (ii) significant, persistent deviations hom uncovered interest rate parity in favor of U.S. interest rates. C1 NATL BUR ECON RES,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. FED RESERVE BANK CHICAGO,CHICAGO,IL. RP EICHENBAUM, M (reprint author), NORTHWESTERN UNIV,EVANSTON,IL 60208, USA. NR 29 TC 236 Z9 243 U1 3 U2 12 PU MIT PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA 55 HAYWARD ST JOURNALS DEPT, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 SN 0033-5533 J9 Q J ECON JI Q. J. Econ. PD NOV PY 1995 VL 110 IS 4 BP 975 EP 1009 DI 10.2307/2946646 PG 35 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA TD962 UT WOS:A1995TD96200005 ER PT J AU Stavins, J AF Stavins, J TI Model entry and exit in a differentiated-product industry: The personal computer market SO REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS LA English DT Article ID IMPLICIT MARKETS; HEDONIC PRICES; COMPETITION; DETERRENCE; PREEMPTION; LOCATION; DEMAND AB Entry and exit literature focuses almost exclusively on firm-level decisions, leaving out an important aspect of firm behavior: whether to introduce new models while the firm produces similar goods, and where to locate them in the existing product space, taking into account own models and the possibility of new entry. This paper analyzes model entry and exit decisions in the case of the personal computer market. Differences in new model spatial location between incumbents and entrants are found, while both model overpricing and firm reputation are found to be significant in the probability of model's exit estimation. RP Stavins, J (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK BOSTON,BOSTON,MA 02210, USA. NR 29 TC 51 Z9 53 U1 2 U2 7 PU MIT PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA 55 HAYWARD ST JOURNALS DEPT, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 SN 0034-6535 J9 REV ECON STAT JI Rev. Econ. Stat. PD NOV PY 1995 VL 77 IS 4 BP 571 EP 584 DI 10.2307/2109807 PG 14 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA UA336 UT WOS:A1995UA33600001 ER PT J AU Wheelock, DC Wilson, PW AF Wheelock, DC Wilson, PW TI Explaining bank failures: Deposit insurance, regulation, and efficiency SO REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS LA English DT Article ID PRODUCT MIX ECONOMIES; DECISION-MAKING UNITS; TECHNICAL EFFICIENCY; SCALE AB This paper uses micro-level historical data to examine the causes of bank failure. For state-chartered Kansas banks during 1910-28, time-to-failure is explicitly modeled using a proportional hazards framework. In addition to standard financial ratios, this study includes membership in the voluntary state deposit insurance system and a measure of technical efficiency to explain bank failure. The results indicate that deposit insurance system membership increased the probability of failure, and technically inefficient banks were more likely to fail than technically efficient banks. C1 UNIV TEXAS,AUSTIN,TX 78712. RP Wheelock, DC (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK,ST LOUIS,MO 63102, USA. RI Wheelock, David/I-5757-2016 OI Wheelock, David/0000-0002-2702-8164 NR 51 TC 54 Z9 55 U1 1 U2 9 PU MIT PRESS PI CAMBRIDGE PA 55 HAYWARD ST JOURNALS DEPT, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02142 SN 0034-6535 J9 REV ECON STAT JI Rev. Econ. Stat. PD NOV PY 1995 VL 77 IS 4 BP 689 EP 700 DI 10.2307/2109816 PG 12 WC Economics; Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods SC Business & Economics; Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences GA UA336 UT WOS:A1995UA33600010 ER PT J AU BALKE, NS WYNNE, MA AF BALKE, NS WYNNE, MA TI RECESSIONS AND RECOVERIES IN REAL BUSINESS-CYCLE MODELS SO ECONOMIC INQUIRY LA English DT Article; Proceedings Paper CT 1992 Federal-Reserve-Business-Analysis-System-Committee Meeting CY OCT, 1992 CL PHILADELPHIA, PA SP Fed Reserve Business Anal Syst Comm AB We evaluate the ability of a simple real business cycle model to generate business cycles in the classical NBER sense of the term, where recessions are periods of absolute declines in economic activity. We use the ''phase'' classification of Burns and Mitchell [1946] to determine the ''shape'' of the business cycle and to look for asymmetries between expansions and contractions. We show that such a model can generate business cycles of plausible duration and depth, but cannot match the actual ''shape'' of the business cycle. Nonlinear models, such as Friedman's [1993] ''plucking'' model may move closely match the observed shape. C1 FED RESERVE BANK DALLAS,DALLAS,TX. RP BALKE, NS (reprint author), SO METHODIST UNIV,DALLAS,TX 75275, USA. NR 40 TC 8 Z9 8 U1 0 U2 0 PU WESTERN ECONOMIC ASSOC INT PI HUNTINGTON BEACH PA 7400 CENTER AVE SUITE 109, HUNTINGTON BEACH, CA 92647-3039 SN 0095-2583 J9 ECON INQ JI Econ. Inq. PD OCT PY 1995 VL 33 IS 4 BP 640 EP 663 PG 24 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA TJ137 UT WOS:A1995TJ13700008 ER PT J AU SUNDEN, A AF SUNDEN, A TI AGE, WORK, AND SOCIAL-SECURITY - ATKINSON,AB, REIN,M SO INDUSTRIAL & LABOR RELATIONS REVIEW LA English DT Book Review RP SUNDEN, A (reprint author), FED RESERVE SYST,BOARD GOVERNORS,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 1 TC 0 Z9 0 U1 0 U2 0 PU INDUSTRIAL LABOR RELAT REV PI ITHACA PA CORNELL UNIV, ITHACA, NY 14851-0952 SN 0019-7939 J9 IND LABOR RELAT REV JI Ind. Labor Relat. Rev. PD OCT PY 1995 VL 49 IS 1 BP 179 EP 181 DI 10.2307/2524927 PG 3 WC Industrial Relations & Labor SC Business & Economics GA TB032 UT WOS:A1995TB03200019 ER PT J AU BENCIVENGA, VR SMITH, BD STARR, RM AF BENCIVENGA, VR SMITH, BD STARR, RM TI TRANSACTIONS COSTS, TECHNOLOGICAL CHOICE, AND ENDOGENOUS GROWTH SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC THEORY LA English DT Article ID LONG-RUN GROWTH; FINANCIAL REPRESSION; INTEREST-RATES; SOUTH-KOREA; POLICY; INFLATION AB Hicks (''A Theory of Economic History,'' Clarendon Press, Oxford, 1969) argues that an important aspect of industrial development is the adoption of technologies requiring highly illiquid capital investments. The adoption of such technologies becomes economically viable in the presence of low-cost financial markets that provide liquidity to investors. This observation provides a mechanism by which the costs of transacting in financial markets affect the equilibrium choice of technology, productive efficiency, and, by implication, growth. We analyze how the costs of financial market transactions affect the set of technologies in use and the equilibrium growth rate. Transactions cost reductions may, depending on the capital structure, enhance or reduce growth. (C) 1995 Academic Press, Inc. C1 FED RESERVE BANK MINNEAPOLIS,MINNEAPOLIS,MN 55480. UNIV CALIF SAN DIEGO,LA JOLLA,CA 92093. RP BENCIVENGA, VR (reprint author), CORNELL UNIV,ITHACA,NY 14853, USA. NR 28 TC 63 Z9 64 U1 0 U2 4 PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC JNL-COMP SUBSCRIPTIONS PI SAN DIEGO PA 525B STREET, SUITE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 SN 0022-0531 J9 J ECON THEORY JI J. Econ. Theory PD OCT PY 1995 VL 67 IS 1 BP 153 EP 177 DI 10.1006/jeth.1995.1069 PG 25 WC Economics SC Business & Economics GA TC344 UT WOS:A1995TC34400006 ER PT J AU SHARPE, SA NGUYEN, HH AF SHARPE, SA NGUYEN, HH TI CAPITAL-MARKET IMPERFECTIONS AND THE INCENTIVE TO LEASE SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article DE LEASING; ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION; CAPITAL STRUCTURE ID SECURED DEBT; DETERMINANTS; CONTRACTS; VALUATION AB This paper evaluates the influence of financial contracting costs on public corporations' incentives to lease fixed capital. We argue that firms facing high costs of external funds can economize on the cost of funding by leasing. We construct several measures of leasing propensity, plus some a priori indicators of the severity of financial constraints facing firms. We find that the share of total annual fixed capital costs attributable to either capital or operating leases is substantially higher at lower-rated, non-dividend-paying, cash-poor firms - those likely to face relatively high premiums for external funds. RP SHARPE, SA (reprint author), FED RESERVE BOARD,WASHINGTON,DC 20551, USA. NR 25 TC 56 Z9 56 U1 0 U2 2 PU ELSEVIER SCIENCE SA LAUSANNE PI LAUSANNE 1 PA PO BOX 564, 1001 LAUSANNE 1, SWITZERLAND SN 0304-405X J9 J FINANC ECON JI J. Financ. Econ. PD OCT-NOV PY 1995 VL 39 IS 2-3 BP 271 EP 294 DI 10.1016/0304-405X(95)00830-8 PG 24 WC Business, Finance; Economics SC Business & Economics GA RZ712 UT WOS:A1995RZ71200005 ER PT J AU MCANDREWS, JJ ROBERDS, W AF MCANDREWS, JJ ROBERDS, W TI BANKS, PAYMENTS, AND COORDINATION SO JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION LA English DT Article ID DEPOSIT INSURANCE; CLEARINGHOUSES; LIQUIDITY; PANICS; RUNS AB Banks are modeled as Bryant/Diamond-Dybvig ''insurers'' against the risk of early consumption. Consumption claims must be verified by clearing and settlement. A clearinghouse does this efficiently as long as banks are sufficiently liquid. If liquidity requirements cannot be enforced against all banks, then the threat of panics is necessary to induce banks to hold sufficient liquidity. If the clearinghouse can issue emergency currency, then banks can coexist with less liquid institutions. However, if banks' return to holding reserves is low during ''normal times,'' then there must be times when the return to liquidity is abnormally high. We associate these episodes with the panics of the National Banking Era. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: 042, 311, 314. (C) 1995 Academic Press, Inc. C1 FED RESERVE BANK ATLANTA,ATLANTA,GA 30303. RP MCANDREWS, JJ (reprint author), FED RESERVE BANK PHILADELPHIA,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19106, USA. NR 23 TC 14 Z9 14 U1 4 U2 4 PU ACADEMIC PRESS INC JNL-COMP SUBSCRIPTIONS PI SAN DIEGO PA 525B STREET, SUITE 1900, SAN DIEGO, CA 92101-4495 SN 1042-9573 J9 J FINANC INTERMED JI J. Financ. Intermed. PD OCT PY 1995 VL 4 IS 4 BP 305 EP 327 DI 10.1006/jfin.1995.1013 PG 23 WC Business, Finance SC Business & Economics GA TB926 UT WOS:A1995TB92600001 ER EF