---
title: "Getting started with seqcomp"
output: rmarkdown::html_vignette
vignette: >
  %\VignetteIndexEntry{Getting started with seqcomp}
  %\VignetteEngine{knitr::rmarkdown}
  %\VignetteEncoding{UTF-8}
---

```{r, include = FALSE}
knitr::opts_chunk$set(
  collapse = TRUE,
  comment = "#>",
  fig.width = 7,
  fig.height = 4
)
```

```{r setup}
library(seqcomp)
```

## Overview

`seqcomp` compares two sequential probabilistic forecasters.

The basic question is:

> As outcomes arrive over time, is one forecaster consistently scoring better
> than the other?

The package follows the convention that all scores are positively oriented:
larger scores are better.

For two forecasters `p` and `q`, the pointwise score difference is

\[
\hat{\delta}_t = S(p_t, y_t) - S(q_t, y_t).
\]

Positive values favour forecaster `p`; negative values favour forecaster `q`.

## A simple binary forecasting example

Suppose we observe a sequence of binary outcomes.

```{r}
set.seed(1)

n <- 300
y <- rbinom(n, size = 1, prob = 0.55)
```

Now create two forecasters.

Forecaster `p` is mildly informative: it tends to assign higher probability
when the event occurs and lower probability when it does not.

Forecaster `q` is less informative and stays closer to 0.5.

```{r}
p <- ifelse(y == 1, 0.62, 0.38)
q <- rep(0.50, n)

head(data.frame(y = y, p = p, q = q))
```

This toy example is deliberately simple. In a real application, `p` and `q`
would come from two forecasting models, analysts, or institutions.

## Compare the forecasts

The easiest workflow is to use `compare_forecasts()`.

```{r}
cmp <- compare_forecasts(
  p = p,
  q = q,
  y = y,
  scoring_rule = "brier"
)

head(cmp)
```

The output contains one row per time point.

The most important columns are:

- `score_p`: the score of forecaster `p`,
- `score_q`: the score of forecaster `q`,
- `delta`: the score difference `score_p - score_q`,
- `estimate`: the running mean score difference,
- `lower` and `upper`: the confidence sequence,
- `e_pq` and `e_qp`: the two one-sided e-processes.

## Interpreting the confidence sequence

The confidence sequence tracks the running average score advantage.

```{r}
plot(
  cmp$t, cmp$estimate,
  type = "l",
  ylim = range(c(cmp$lower, cmp$upper, 0), finite = TRUE),
  xlab = "Time",
  ylab = "Mean score difference",
  main = "Sequential comparison using the Brier score"
)
lines(cmp$t, cmp$lower, lty = 2)
lines(cmp$t, cmp$upper, lty = 2)
abline(h = 0, col = "gray50")
```

If the whole interval lies above zero, the data favour `p`.

If the whole interval lies below zero, the data favour `q`.

If the interval still contains zero, the comparison is not yet decisive at the
chosen level.

## Interpreting the e-process

The e-process is an evidence process. Larger values mean stronger evidence
against the corresponding null hypothesis.

For a two-sided comparison at level `alpha`, the rejection threshold used by
`eprocess()` is `2 / alpha`.

```{r}
alpha <- 0.05
threshold <- 2 / alpha

threshold
```

The column `e_pq` gives evidence that `p` outperforms `q`.

The column `e_qp` gives evidence that `q` outperforms `p`.

```{r}
plot(
  cmp$t, cmp$e_pq,
  type = "l",
  log = "y",
  xlab = "Time",
  ylab = "e-process value",
  main = "Evidence that p outperforms q"
)
abline(h = threshold, lty = 2, col = "gray50")
```

We can summarize rejection times with `eprocess_rejections()`.

```{r}
eprocess_rejections(cmp, alpha = alpha)
```

## Using lower-level functions directly

The wrapper is convenient, but the package also exposes the individual pieces.

First compute the scores.

```{r}
score_p <- brier_score(p, y)
score_q <- brier_score(q, y)

head(score_p)
head(score_q)
```

Then construct a confidence sequence.

```{r}
cs <- cs_bernstein(
  scores1 = score_p,
  scores2 = score_q,
  alpha = 0.05,
  c = 2
)

head(cs)
```

And construct an e-process.

```{r}
ep <- eprocess(
  scores1 = score_p,
  scores2 = score_q,
  alpha = 0.05,
  c = 2
)

head(ep)
```

This gives the same core information as `compare_forecasts()`, but with more
manual control.

## Choosing a scoring rule

For binary probability forecasts, `"brier"` is the safest starting point.

```{r}
cmp_brier <- compare_forecasts(p, q, y, scoring_rule = "brier")
tail(cmp_brier)
```

The spherical score is also bounded and can be used with finite-sample
confidence sequences and e-processes.

```{r}
cmp_spherical <- compare_forecasts(p, q, y, scoring_rule = "spherical")
tail(cmp_spherical)
```

The logarithmic score is unbounded. Therefore `compare_forecasts()` uses an
asymptotic confidence sequence by default and does not compute an e-process.

```{r}
cmp_log <- compare_forecasts(
  p = p,
  q = q,
  y = y,
  scoring_rule = "log",
  compute_e = FALSE
)

tail(cmp_log)
```

For binary log-score comparisons where the Winkler construction is appropriate,
use `winkler_compare()`.

```{r}
wcmp <- winkler_compare(p, q, y)

names(wcmp)
```

## Practical guidance

Use `compare_forecasts()` for the common workflow.

Use the lower-level functions when you want more control over the scoring rule,
confidence sequence, e-process, lag handling, or predictable bounds.

For bounded binary or categorical scores such as Brier and spherical scores,
finite-sample confidence sequences and e-processes are available.

For unbounded scores such as the log score, QLIKE, tick loss, and CRPS, be more
careful. Use asymptotic confidence sequences, Winkler scores where applicable,
or problem-specific predictable bounds.
